wdrag

No topic on svr for the 5PM-midnight time frame in our area, especially CT, vcnty NYC and LI but to me it continues to look pretty good. CAPE arrives a little late in the day but with the wind at 500MB increasing and multimodels showing increasing convection in the 6P-11P time frame, not sure why it won't happen. You're welcome to add the reasons it won't. For now no topic til we see how this evolves this afternoon. I'm looking for several svr reports in our area late today or this eve. The second trailer batch between midnight and 4am may have gusty winds but should not be quite as strong as that of the 6P-8P time frame. 1044A/17

Good Monday morning, No topic yet for late today, but still looks pretty good to me for isolated svr 4P-10P. SPC has nothing for most of our area so will await their 13z update before a possible topic post.

NYC forum imo, still looks good for isolated severe 4P-10P Monday, with a secondary band of gusty showers-iso thunder around midnight-3AM Tue. No topic. SPC D2 no longer has marginal risk. So they are seeing something I'm not as CAPE, 500 MB wind, KI, time of day in a low 80s max temp environment look decent to me for a marginal risk. 509P/16

Minor .01 additional amount for Wantage NJ in sw moving low top wind driven drizzle-light rain around 445P. Total a meager .08 but we'll take it.

0.07 Wantage and probably ended up 1/2" too high on all I80 south expectations. Will post CoCORAHS map around Noon Monday. Still, had this been winter... the modeling problem was excessive at 24 hours (18z/15) and even the 06z/16 NAM was poor-reversing it's excesses of the 15th to very low qpf values for today. Difficult to understand such a lack of agreement in the very short term (non convective driven).

So far as of 1030AM attached, NJ only. Back edge of the w NJ steady band will progress east of I95 by evening but low top junk drizzle sprinkles will sweep west into w NJ this afternoon. Biggest rains after 2P should shift to all of LI Am okay with the two bands through 2P, thereafter we should see some sort of merger NYC eastward. Added MARFC fall analysis last 12 hours. seems a little shy in Ocean County.

All good and on target for most of our area. Doing much better in se NYS and nw CT than anticipated yesterday. already 1/2-1.1" southern Ocean County. Plenty more to come. 924A/16

Rain delays of ball games in nw NJ til it ends late morning in Sussex-Warren counties. .07 in Wanateg but already around 0.2 in Warren County near Hackettstown.

Good Sunday morning all, Looking beyond the topic'd developing nor'easter for our I84 area southeastward, SPC continues D2 marginal risk for severe for our area. No topic til late afternoon since we're on-going with one event and small timing issues are developing for later Monday-Monday night. I am now having to think two bands of scattered gusty showers-thunderstorms...one mid Monday afternoon and the other around midnight to 3 am Tuesday. The afternoon would probably be more likely to produce a few severe, but I think the one overnight might surprise as it has quite a bit of KI/cooling 500MB temps and leftover CAPE to work with, along with a pretty decent 500mb jet/vort max coming through. The 22nd-24th (yesterdays's 23rd), looks interesting for a couple bands of heavy showers/thunderstorms. 649A/16

As we awake, it looks like the EC/UK have admitted to decent 1/2"+ rain for LI/NJ and the 06Z NAM says, I'll be the exceedingly dry EC/UK of many past cycles. WPC D1 is a good start and a bit less than my expectations from yesterday. I stay with yesterdays topic starter, except the sharp cutoff on the northwest side may end up somewhere interior se NYS extreme nw CT. In other words further nw than evaluated yesterday. Banding of heavier showers s definitely occurring through early afternoon and whether I targeted the heaviest axis properly, is up for debate but it all merges into one every nice summer nor'easter late today...a nasty afternoon-evening for LI and the NJ shore. You'll also note contribution from the warm Atlantic waters in the form of low top showers moving ashore (westward) this morning, beneath the mid level northeast moving rains. Pretty impressive for summer, I think, in terms of the mixed cyclonic system event. For what it's worth .04 here at our house in Wantage so far, since it began ~330A. I will post again at times today. 637A/16

Is tropical tidbits up and running? If so, will delete this post. Just need a check. Seems to be a slow load for me.

Hi! Decided to start the topic. It would be for rainfall reports primarily, and easing of some recent dryness in a few spots of our forum. FF not likely except maybe southern Ocean County? Lesser flood advisories would probably occur for poor drainage urban flooding Sunday near NYC (IF I'm reading this right?) 1.5"+ qpf differences in operational solutions through the 18z/15 (Saturday) with the EC/UK/HRRR op runs very-very light while the NAM continues furthest north with the 1+". Preliminarily I see a very sharp cut off of rainfall somewhere from Sussex County NJ northward or I84 ~HFD. Suspect two bands of heavy rain in our area...one maybe along I80-I78 corridors thru LI (deformation mid level FGEN ~700 MB in the morning-afternoon, then LI getting the direct storm additional contribution during Sunday evening). The second band across southern Ocean County NJ. This is a best estimate based on modeling. There will be error. The northern band narrow, but widespread 0.5 to a few pockets of 2". The drier zone just south of that band in Monmouth to near I195 Trenton, then the other band over southern Ocean County in the 1.5-3" zone. E Suffolk County total from both daytime deformation FGEN and evening storm 1.5-3". My guess is much of interior se NYS doesn't receive much if any rain and maybe Sussex County too, while we watch some pretty decent bands along I80 or I78? If it's any consolation...the 12z GEFS is a tick higher for NJ/LI and as far north as it's been since the 18z/14 run with 1" skirting the s coast of LI. It's broad output so doesn't get into the banding etc. The 12z EPS is noticeably heavier than the 12z EC operational and about 1/2" shy of the GEFS for LI. I think there is enough information to see a dismally damp midday-evening for much of NJ/LI and some decent rainfall. I think definitely wetter than the 12z SPC HREF. If anything, this a model contest trying to understand reality today and the associated modeling, with the follow through for Sunday. Compromise is always best realizing the downside of forecasting too heavy too far north. 436P/15 (I do not plan to post anymore until Sunday morning - have to ride it out now).

Looking at reality vs modeling: Someone tell me that this will fade to the EC/UK dry solutions. VERY difficult to believe. In the end I think I'll work some sort of 12z-18 NAM HRDPS mix to this. Looks impressive to me...moderate rain into southern PA at 1830z. Will check 18z NAM and then try to figure it out different than already posted earlier this afternoon. I do see the UK/EC doing so well with this system, certainly not off to a very good start. 313P/15

Too much uncertainty. Looks nasty except no 12z UK yet, and the EC has very little going. For now, I think 700MB FGEN is driving showers in southern PA and it looks to me like a decent event is coming I80-LI southward BUT with lots of uncertainty. The differences in the modeling has to be related to initialization-sensitivity but I'm not the one to know for sure. I do think this is highly unusual to have so vast a difference in the 24 hour time frame. NOT good for the science. Take a compromise. Not posting a topic, as yet. 219P/15

Decided to wait, til 230 or 430. IF 12z EC and UK stay south, I have to wait til the 18z NAM. For now, preliminarily I see a very sharp cut off of rainfall somewhere from Sussex County NJ northward or I84 to about HFD or just west of HFD. Suspect two bands of heavy rain in our area...one maybe along I80-I78 corridors thru LI (deformation zone in the morning-afternoon, then LI getting the direct storm additional contribution during Sunday evening). The second band across southern Ocean County NJ. The northern band narrow, but widespread 0.5-2". the drier zone just south of that band in Monmouth to Trenton, then the other band over southern Ocean County in the 1-3" zone. E LI total from both daytime deformation FGEN and evening storm 1-3". My guess is much of interior se NYS doesn't receive much if any beneficial rain and maybe Sussex County too, while we watch some pretty decent bands along I80 or 78? That's my early take. Can adjust northward tonight or Sunday morning if modeling evidence and reality support. Should we topic? It would be for rainfall reports primarily, and easing of some recent dryness in a few spots of our forum. FF not likely except maybe southern Ocean County? Lesser flood advisories would probably occur for poor drainage urban flooding Sunday near NYC (IF I'm reading this right?) 127P/15 at 131P: If it's any consolation...the GEFS is a tick higher for NJ/LI and as far north as it's been since the 18z/14 run with 1" skirting the s coast of LI. It's broad output so doesn't get into the banding etc.

It's been on and sometimes off and certainly yesterdays 12z/14 cycle was less than 0.2" and the overnight 00z/15 cycle had about 0.6" NNJ and less LI. That inconsistency, the UK through 00z/15 being bereft of QPF and 00z/15 GEFS/EPS trends weren't helpful in an early, yes it will happen commit. However, no matter what happens at 700mb, the 12z NAM 850 FGEN axis promises 1 to possibly near 3" qpf, at least in the far southeastern part of our forum area (Ocean County and Suffolk). Am leaning to a topic, with the understanding that it's modeling and no guarantee. Prefer another couple of hours to await some other modeling information.

So the 12z NAM is decidedly back north with 2" parts of NJ and LI, NAM 3k still s by Ocean County. Might start a topic midday based on more model trends. Topic not so much for Flooding but more so for some parts of our area getting a needed 1-2" Difficult to ignore the 12z/15 NAM but also difficult to believe the 700 flow configuration it has for 12z in NNJ. No decision til at least Noon, prefer 230P.

12z/15 NAM compare: Continues a deformation zone (try at a 700Low near 180), excellent RRQ 250JET in Northern New England for qpf up to LI and much of NNJ, separate from VA low. Just wonder if a 700low can form near I80 tomorrow morning? No action at this time.

Good Saturday morning to all! I hope it is a good start. Weatherwise. Not starting a topic for Sunday, but you're welcome to. I think overall, that it will rain but under 1.5" for the area along and southeast of I95...best chance at 1-1.5" Ocean County and Suffolk County. HOWEVER... if the 12z cycle adjusts north, I'll get one going but no decision til ~230P. UK and EC op runs continue rather dry for tomorrow and I think WPC has reacted drier in its D2 qpf. There is still quite bit of variability in the NAEFS, but it too has shifted south and insists nothing I84 north (not good for some of us with flowers Sussex and Orange counties). SREF (short range ensemble) plumes from 03z/15 have a cluster of very little for ISP, and then bunch spread out with big numbers. EPS and GEFS show more consensus, drier -further south. So am going with the drier further south solution but not ruling out something substantial for the I195 region southward and eastern LI. Monday afternoon-early night (17th): You probably saw the SPC D3 Marginal for most of our area except eastern LI. This i think will be a topic. Will await clearance of Sunday's system and not begin this yet... but am pretty sure at least isolated will occur in our forum area, especially n of I80. Enough CAPE, WIND aloft and KI. Wednesday afternoon (19th): ?: might be a severe day?? some guidance signals but very early and this does not yet look like Monday has been looking for a while on the ECMWF. Sunday the 23rd: Eight days away so this can easily be nothing to monitor but for now, somewhat interesting at a distant date. 706A/15

Thought some might like to see this new product. Has many different ways to break this down geographically, including by county. Have just presented the overall OKX forecast area for the past 20 years of drought detail. The dark red is D4... pretty serious but not for long and percentage wise (vertical), not too much of the area. Never a D5 in the OKX area the past 20 years. The cursor was set for a day in 2015 (blue vertical). From our NWS-NOA drought monitor group. Can now search by NWS Weather Forecast Offices by the US Drought Manager Time Series tool. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Data/Timeseries.aspx This a great tool to provide information on how frequent drought occurs by percent of area in your county warning area. It can be found under "Area Type". You can even toggle on or off varying extremes of drought.

One thing I should have mentioned: IF this were a snow situation, no matter the edgy, there is/was too much information of concern within the ensembles to not have this a winter topic...but it's summer and most everyone can live with less than1 inch of rain as a non topic, provided the track remains south as per the 12z/14 modeling.

12z/14 Friday cycle: Whew... glad it's not winter. Have reviewed 12z GEFS/EPS/NAEFS, 09z SREF, 12z UK/GGEM/NAM12 and 3K. Despite the much drier 12z GFS op, the 12z GEFS continues to hammer 1" ne across much of our forum area, while the EPS is less than 1/4". NAEFS (biased by the GEFS members) is definitely saying we're in the mix for a nasty dreary wet summer day but with GREAT variability in qpf amounts. I do not like that the GGEM and UK are both edgy dry here. Therefore, don't know what to say except that I expect a period of rain for the forum area, mainly I95 corridor southeastward. Amounts ?able but not enough for a topic (I'd be looking for 3-4" QPF somewhere here in the forum area, for a summer non - snow topic). Will reevaluate early Saturday. Monday evening: unsure whether what happens Sunday nullifies late Monday, but if the EC is correct and we just receive a quick grazing of light amounts Sunday I95 southeastward, then we need to think potential for late season severe late Monday (EC has plenty of KI along the front, enough CAPE and wind aloft-good timing for now and cold enough 500mb to suggest iso hail). UK seems to like the convective possibilities as well. It's early and am only highlighting the possibilities of these two days. We should all look this over again tomorrow. May be offline for a while. 309P/14

Adding just a little more info on yesterday, 48 hour combined. Will reedit with HPRCC to show pocket-convective band oriented all the rainfall of the past week, most of that rain Monday-Tuesday. It's not highly accurate but offers an idea of the above normal and below normal areas in the past few days. 3+ report, in addition to the one 4+ posted yesterday. 1052A/14 ...Somerset County... 0.6 E Belle Mead 3.49 in 0600 PM 08/13 IFLOWS 3 W Kendall Park 2.32 in 1100 AM 08/13 Public

I don't like that the GEFS is trending steadily south. Implies heavy rain Mason-Dixon line with northern fringes up here. In summer, without deep cyclonic inflow, the heaviest tends to be be near the warm front-greatest instability. This should resolve to greater consensus by the 00z/15 cycle. Rather dry Uk is bothersome as well.