wdrag

Possible. I’m unable to devote much time right now to weather. Please follow reality, NWS offices statements reports and the latest SPC MD which covers NJ as 80% likelihood of a watch.

Just seems marginal to me so far. Has to happen by 545 in NYC of anything substantial

Your decision. Sorry. Not at home now. So far storms are pretty small. There could larger storms by Sat night? Travel carefully

Unless anyone else see it different, it appears to me the SPC HREF and HRDPS have the best handle on 18z convection...slightly different impacts here (HREF w of NYC, 12z RDPS NYC east. 16z HRRR seems to be struggling but it also might be onto something. We'll know more by 245P.

1252P...wind backing here in Wantage to sw and that's a good sign. Also small cells in ne PA... might it be that the line moving south of central NYS gives it up soon for a PA only broken line of convection with sct svr? I like the wind backing a bit in PA, even CT but more so PA. Lot's of uncertainty.

Have just added the 12z/25 SPC HREF MEAN QPF for our area, ending 12z Wednesday, basically exiting the southern part of our forum area around 7PM this evening. This is actually somewhat optimistic for svr event potential in NJ. The max rainfall in a couple of spots with fast movers, probably no more than 2" and likely 1" or less (speed and not expecting training). One other note: saw the 16z surface map and we need more of a west or event wsw surface wind ahead of this line. Lack of convergence may nix the opportunity for storms, especially CT. Need to see more backing...AVP was fine and southern LI fine but the rest... not what I want to see. My wind is also nw... not good news. So there is opportunity, especially NJ e PA but it's not a strong likelihood til maybe down near PHL. Again, only opinion on pattern recognition.

16z=Noon developing line of act-broken showers moving steadily se near I90 NYS. Bothered that the GFS looses this convection se of the Catskills, whereas the HRRR looses some but it hasn't got a good handle on 16z. HRDPS keeps driving convection seed this afternoon. Please see 1302z SPC D1 update on wording caution regarding coverage. Finally have only seen 12z SPC HREF through 17z, but it seems to have a good handle on the midday activity. Will be curious as to how it evolves this afternoon via the modeling. Need to be a little cautious about a decent outbreak despite potency - remember this is mainly wnw-nw flow at 850MB, not a favorable direction of lift, once past the Catskills. 1205P/25

It seems to be in error... HOWEVER, I think some sort of center will remain intact across there Apps (VA-s NJ) with squally 40-50kt gust potential s of the center, which eventually probably ET transitions to an intensifying n Atlc storm in its rapid poleward departure. What has caught my attention now, is the 12z GFS with seemingly a weak boundary in CT Fri night. That may serve for a weak PRE... unsure, but any boundary in our forum area with this pwat coming up to ~2" should (corrected) let loose at night.

So far, Sunday-Monday have only produced 2-3 tiny clusters of significant activity in our area (CT,NJ), though the northern fringe of our forum (NYS/CT) is now getting decent heavy showers/thunderstorms around 8A-9A. We'll see what comes up for us this afternoon, Thursday and now a D5 SPC OUTLOOK not added here, nor topic'd, since we already have a Laura remnant topic for Fri-Sat. For many all of this will be routine, but there will be a few hot spots of rocking weather the rest of this week. Should become a little more interesting.

For what it's worth, we just had some decent west- nw wind in Wantage NJ around 750-8A, as if some dying outflow. Certainly not common for us to have 13 mph gusts at this time of August day.

I ran some backward trajectories off Hysplit to see origens of parcels. Only goes out to 22z Friday but gives an idea of origin for NYC. 918A/25

10z HRRR finally giving us something to look for, at least I78 southward this afternoon. Biggest severe storm potential should be further south down in s Jersey/se PA and Del.

Good Tuesday morning everyone, SPC has a long corridor of Slight Risk severe weather potential across the northern USA Thursday. They pulled back Wednesday's out of our area and this makes sense based on the 00z/25 modeling. As far as Thursday goes...please see SPC D3 discussion. 604A/25 At 825A, I added the D3 SPC outlook and here's what they said near 0739z/25 (339AM EDT). I underlined the last line! ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Thursday from a portion of the northern Plains through the Great Lakes and Northeast States. Damaging wind and large hail are the main threats. A few tornadoes will also be possible over the lower Mississippi Valley region. ...Lower Great Lakes through Northeast States... Early Thursday morning a warm front will extend from northern NY southeast into southern New England. This boundary will move east during the day, while a cold front advances southeast through the lower Great Lakes reaching the Northeast States by late Thursday afternoon. Elevated storms should be ongoing within zone of ascent on cool side of the warm front from northern NY into New England. Overall severe threat with this activity will probably remain limited. In wake of morning storms and the passing warm front, the advection of rich low-level moisture with upper 60s F dewpoints and diabatic warming should result in moderate instability with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE possible. Additional storms will likely develop along lake breezes and approaching cold front and spread southeast through a portion of the Northeast States. This region will remain within belt of stronger northwesterly winds aloft with 40-50 kt effective bulk shear supporting fast-moving organized storms including bowing segments and supercells. Have introduced a sig area this update, and an upgrade to higher probabilities will likely be needed in day 2 updates.

Good Tuesday morning everyone, No significant change to my update of Monday morning. Timing has slowed slightly but otherwise I think everything looks good for a moisture infusion and potential for some heavy rains in parts of our forum. The primary event looks to be centered mostly Saturday. Added some NAEFS (52 member graphics), inclusive of the 24 hr QPF axis, the ensemble low position Saturday evening (it's a broad area of low pressure. and imagine there will be 2 lows, one further north in or near the eastern New England coast, and one down off Virginia or Delaware at that time,) jet dynamics (200mb jet core over the Canadian Maritimes leaving us in the RRQ). and finally the probability of more than 1" axis between Wednesday evening and Sunday evening-showing the primary qpf axis with this tropical influenced pattern. 551A/25

Good Tuesday morning everyone, Yesterday's radar is attached. pinged a 2-3" per OKX radar and Digital storm total Fairfield County CT, with SVR just east of the forum in Portland CT and as posted above in ne PA with a few 1" wxunderground reports into nw NJ and sw CT. The big stuff was mostly ne PA and se CT... and not a good forecast for our area. The modeling hesitancy was useful in toning down expectations. I may add a CoCoRAHS mapping by midday. Today, as posted just above this, per SPC. My concerns are #1... leftover dying convective debris this morning limiting redevelopment potential for most of our forum this afternoon, and just the general lack of convergent flow. Some modeling diminishes the activity as it approaches aopur area while HRDPS is very interested in an active afternoon. I'm with less than ideal confidence, but leave it to local NWS and SPC discussions. The topic is here and hopefully w some reports of svr later this morning or afternoon.

This afternoon-evening: Does not look at all promising for much, as of this 40PM writing for our area, but still a chance of development. Cells appear too small, and too slow moving but maybe outflows will coalesce activity between 4 and 7PM? in CT/NJ? Seems like run of the mill so far. Tomorrow: am not convinced of much, but if there will be strong action, think its mostly NJ and e PA, especially where SPC has their enhanced risk now Pls see attached). Again, I'm uneasy because of the generally nw flow and a bit of a lack of surface convergence. Am getting a sense a line will be crossing NJ between 9A and 2PM, with not much left later on during peak heating. Just doesn't seem well meshed but staying with SPC as they write with more enthusiasm for something pretty good, mostly sw portion of the forum.

Saw the SPC upgrade to marginal risk today in our area. A bit surprised. 86/69 here in Wantage at 1240P.. A little uneasy how this unfolds. amazing 12z models have so little in northern PA at this time and many have very little in our forum area this afternoon. That's always a bit concerning for me... modeling 2-3 hours before go time look pretty pathetic today except ICON. We'll see and should know by 4P if anything decent will develop or spill over into our area.

Uncertain, but at least one other on our forum has been onto the potential for a couple of days and I agree. Instability in low level WAA (strong warm front) beneath a decent nw flow mid level jet should permit a couple of episodes of nw flow severe thunderstorms. The first, sometime late Wednesday or Wed night through PA and possibly western NJ (plus see SPC D3 issued early Monday morning). I didn't expect to see a Marginal risk this far east into NJ but it is possible and I defer to the SPC D3. The second episode sometime Thursday, when it appears the risk shifts into our area. Best axis Thursday? Suspect close to the warm front which should be se NYS/NJ/ne PA. It's late in the season for this this... so I express a little caution for this possible late summer convective event. 640A/24

Good Monday morning! I woke up to storm modeling thats seems too quiet for this afternoon... cells few and far between. I'll stay with the HRDPS and EC, inclusive of mid-upper 30s KI axis ne PA-SE NYS-CT into extreme nw NJ at 18z. That should allow clusters of strong storms to develop ne PA and se NYS between 1-3PM and track east southeast into CT, northern NJ n of I78 onto LI during the remainder of the afternoon and die out around 8 or 9 PM. So we saw what yesterday brought to near Lakewood NJ. I suspect the same along or north of I80. Not impossible to have isolated SVR but not expecting FF 4" production. PWAT will be near 1.7-1.8. CAPE up near 2000J but not much wind aloft. I did see the HRRR is spitting out a bit of hail in e PA and se NYS. Tuesday: Please read SPC D2 and NWS local office discussions as well your own. Today, it looks little more favorable to me for SVR cells drilling southeastward across our area between 2P and 9P with the 850 flow turning a little more westerly ahead of the cool front permitting less downsloping. CAPE, KI, WIND aloft all look favorable. In addition to the the damaging wind/hail potential, despite the faster southeast movement of the cells, should see 2-3" in an hour beneath a couple of the tracks of of the strongest cells. Most favored region is is probably se NYS/ne PA, NJ to near NYC.. 627A/24

No heat wave except vicinity CDW and POU which should continue today and possibly Tue. Typical summer. Saw interesting UKMET 2m temps for NYC Thu...modeled warmest NYC at 00z, instead of 18z., implying warm air advection but not much shower-thunderstorm activity. Hmmm?

No change in the outlook: Laura's remains probably track east across VA-Delmarva Saturday...still with a shift south or north possible. Moisture contributions from Laura and even a bit of Marco pushed ahead of Laura, should be infused into a frontal system across the NYC forum, possibly enhancing rainfall late Friday or Friday night. This far in advance... my concerns are tracking and a possible southward slippage of the guidance in the future model cycles. The primary center of the potentially dynamically reinvigorated remnant Laura will probably pass with its primary envelope of possible damaging wind gusts (40-50 kt) across VA-far northern NC or even the Delmarva Saturday. Guidance is cyclically consistent suggesting potentially 40-50 knot gusts in squalls south of the center (south of the forum area) Saturday. NO guarantee of those gusts. We'll see if that vigor and track holds. This also continues my concern for marine area just south of eventual center passage. For now... that should be south of our NYC forum coverage. It is only mentioned here, since there should be no surprise just south of the eventual track. Meanwhile the 00z/24 52 member NAEFS has shifted north a bit with its heavier rainfall. The models RRQ of the westerly upper level jet continues locked in over Maine and Nova Scotia. Model guidance suggests west-southwest flow in the 850-700mb layer ahead of Laura into the NY forum and so any boundaries in our area late Friday-Friday night could yield heavy rainfall. We'll see if that holds? Saturday's remnant Laura heavy rains-squalls might end up on the southern edge of the forum or south of the forum. So for now... am not favoring a direct eastward NJ remnant track but Laura's influence should be more so via the advance dynamics late Friday. Plenty of room for error and associated less impact. Guidance so far seems to be locked on a Louisiana - Arkansas to Ohio River heavy rain path then eastward, with uncertainties further north, including our NYC forum area. 607A/24

It's real early... some of the trends are little south of this mornings 00z/23 cycle but this could vary for the next few days. AND, we don't know the interaction with the southward moving cool front Fri-Sat which could be lit up with the additional infusion of trop moisture. Long ways to go. One thing I'm pretty sure of... am glad I'm not cruising south from NYC to HAT Friday or Saturday. I do think it's going to be rough for some of the marine areas (50kt gusts) south of wherever the track axis is. If an anticyclone doesn't build southward fast enough for a good nor'easter, then the action is rain, with south side strong squalls. The other aspect of the post trop transition is a possibility of intensification of the remnants as it crosses the Apps, per the upper level jet dynamics. So, lots to monitor to see what actually comes to pass as reliably predictable. 722/23

On todays rain... finally... and not quite done. Jackson Township NJ in northern Ocean County near I195...training and repeat episodes... have reposted 1.5 to 2.5" as in this attached weather underground report... 2 times as much as the digital radar estimate. Don't be fooled the next few days. Some gully washers coming this week, I think. 711P/23

Updated the CoCoRAHS map with 1.07" isolated in ne NJ yesterday afternoon. Will check back around 6 or 7P.

Monday-Tuesday: Issued a low confidence topic for more widespread heavy thunderstorms with potential for 2-3" max rainfalls (this was modeled for Sunday several days ago by the EC-but delayed for most of our area-except Ocean County- til Monday). KI is up, actually quite high for Monday morning so we may get a quick start Monday. PW up to near 1.8". Cannot rule out an isolated SVR Monday afternoon but the two day topic includes Tuesday's SPC slight risk. SPC sees more detailed model information than I, so despite my concerns about general nw 850MB flow which tends to be negative for convection holding together east of Appalachians, I've included Tuesday per SPC yesterdays D4 and todays D3. I could see best chance SVR early in the day but this hopefully will be improved as we draw closer. Plenty of wind in the sounding and enough CAPE/KI for sure, but don't quite like the 850 flow. 858A/23