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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    Added the 12z/8 run for 24 hr qpf...SPC HREF--please reference the legend. I like this and it matches multiple model bands of heaviest qpf which looks to me like 1.5-3.25" with the heaviest over NNJ. I checked minimum wind gusts and all generally 50-55 MPH Delmarva-coastal NJ and LI 00z-07z/10. I dont want to hammer the wind too much more right now. I'm certain of power outages. but how extensive? I see the NAM BL wind is 45kt at 06z/10... that's very large. LI and se New England coast should have pretty significant problems. Discuss and add on. Texas now up to 19000 power outages as the eastward and then northeast ward march of power outages has just started. Is it continuous across multiple states? Smokies should feel this late tonight-tomorrow morning.
  2. wdrag
    Waiting til 350P. Best way to go seems to be a 12-13 thread. Ensembles previously--all 3 major global had a snow event the 16th... and this far out only 1-2". I think we can wait till 350PM.
  3. wdrag
    Snow water equivalent...alot of this in NJ e PA will melt by Noon Wednesday. Lot of potential water for the rivers wherever 2-3" of qpf occurs on top of that NJ snow water equiv. 12Z/8 Modeling and BOM is favoring I think the I287 area...correct me if Im wrong.
  4. wdrag
    Jan 6-7 CoCoRaHs rainfall-snowfall data, plus NOHRSC snowfall. Click for clarity if you wish.
  5. wdrag
    does that fit snowman19 nada east of I287? I'm doing cocorahs now. I need to understand reality.
  6. wdrag
    Good morning again, I keep thinking about what is ahead. Let me see what CPC does at 330PM, but pretty sure at that time I will post a dual storm thread 12-13 (similar to tomorrow) and then the colder wintry one for the 16th. It's that one that possibly shuts off major storms here for a week or 10 days to get us below normal temps and freeze up the river flows. I need more time and am off line til at least 1030. Thanks, Walt
  7. wdrag
    SPC HREF under Fire: go to gust potential and make sure you keep it on MIN gust... that will be realistic. Looks potent at 00z/10 especially Delmarva. The idea is to use conservative predictors far in advance.
  8. wdrag
    Adding one more thought on Tue night winds: I've seen stronger predicted wind gusts for other storms so we will see power outages, uproots etc... I'm always a little less than ideally certain on what happens. I think the idea is have cell phones charged and if you have a home generator, enough gas to power... and if nothing happens that affects you---MUCH better outcome. There will be wind damage and uproots but few leafed trees. So... I dont have quite the feel-confidence I'd like for the overall extensiveness of the wind problem. We will know by this time Wednesday.
  9. wdrag
    Friday night-Saturday morning: No thread til I can get organized time here at home but certain will get one going by Wednesday. Right now I think we should concentrate on this Tuesday night's 9 hour excessive rain-wind. it looks likely that Poconos-I84 high terrain late Friday get a shot of snow-sleet, then heavy rain and possible wind damage Friday night which continues the flood threat in the northeast. Gusty winds 40-55 MPH in the wake of the storm over the entire northeast USA lingers through this coming weekend. Another tough event that impacts all of us in some way..either flooding or power. Next Monday night-Tuesday (1/15-16) looks like a period of snow or a snow storm for at least I95 west but no thread yet. Uncertainty.
  10. wdrag
    Tuesday Noon... suspect we'll see a little sleet melting for an hour PHL-NYC. Extreme nw NJ-Poconos-Catskills could see a 3 hour snow-sleet of 1/4-1" 10-2PM ish.
  11. wdrag
    I agree with albedoman post. I'll be checking my drains today, getting a pool pump out with a hose for extricating water Tuesday night if this comes to pass. I won't be surprised at a gravity wave that will modulate the heaviest rain zones but also assist wind damage. The idea, life will have to adjust Tuesday night Wednesday. Added a graphic of ensemble predictions of flooding up in our area. That's just the NWS flood forecast points. ALWAYS...this is predicated on the ensemble anticipated rainfall-snowmelt. That ensemble rainfall is 2.5". Note if another inch occurs next Friday night-Saturday the Passaic at Pone Brook would be in moderate or major flood through next weekend. Again, this is my own take on the modeling and not a NWS warning. If the rain is less, it's not as dire.
  12. wdrag
    So tomorrow morning we'll get the thread title updated to include the OBS for storm 2, add a two day CoCoRahS total and believe it or not, I think there will be some reports of snow and sleet in NJ, NYS/EPA and se NYS/CT midday Tuesday as the system begins. Not much more that I can add regarding rain/wind and its impacts.
  13. wdrag
    Request for comment was sent to MARFC. The ensembles have a model run time..lower right of each panel. End time I dont need because whatever is displayed has to satisfy. Ensembles are 10 day and each day is on the X axis. Looks like their river forecast officially are two day. This is where NWS is going on AHPS...new link below. Copy into browser and check. https://preview.water.noaa.gov/#@=-96.5556541,37.7326036,3.54063&b=topographic&g=obsFcst,1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!0!0!0!0!0,0.5,1!1!1!1!0,0,0&ab=0,0,#D94B4A,1,1,1,#cccccc,1,0,0,#B243B1,1,0,0,#98E09A,1&a=hydrologic,0.35&s=0,0,0.9,0.9&n=false,#72afe9,0.9,0,0.9,0,0.9&p=false,0.75,0,7,0,1,2023,11,24,0&d=0,0,1,1,1,1,1,1,#006EFF,1,#006EFF,1,#006EFF&q= Play with it. Cursor over. I've posted just this week regional snowfall forecast maps... several times. example.attached. Regional accum maps were posted this morning from LSR but something smooth, is only once in a while for a big big storm. We might see one tomorrow. However, I just dropped one in from NOHRSC. Later, Walt I've attached the flood watch just issued by Mt Holly.
  14. wdrag
    Wantage_ this location 8 =s High Point NJ. My final will be 13.4" over 24 hours. Still some S- here but I doubt if it adds anything noticeable, especially with compacting ongoing at a temp of 34.
  15. wdrag
    So the short of it for me, it doesn't work past day 3 using the slider bar, or if it does, you have to wait til a certain time of the day. I jnever use the slider bar. I'll send a note to the MARFC and see if they give me a reply. My recommendation: Please click on the river forecast point of interest and then use the scroll bar to the right to see all the info provided for that forecast point including ensemble river response, ensemble qpf (when it was imported for use) etc. Thanks, Walt
  16. wdrag
    Challenging! Thanks, Walt
  17. wdrag
    I have looked at guidance through the end of the month and so the 6" value I posted for top 10 January may end up 2" in error but thats what I came up with...a "chance" for a top 10 Jan water equivalent wise. If we dont exceed 2" in CP this next event on 1/9-10, then 6" for January seems less likely.
  18. wdrag
    Most sure what you';re looking at... just saw the lager Pine Brook in minor heading for moderate on 1/10 but nothing bout 1/13. Please send me what you're looking at that says 1/13 =thanks. I have to prep some pea soup so ill be away at times.
  19. wdrag
    May want to wait til tomorrow morning addition of D2.
  20. wdrag
    Since I have no emoji's...thanks... these are what we like to enjoy. Gotta have some fun. Thagts a heckuva long driveway!!! Sticks I suspect, just like up here near the Appalachian Trail.
  21. wdrag
    Tomorrow I'll probably update the headline to maybe add a tag??? and certainly make it clear that OBS for this next event just fall right into this thread. I'm probably gassed out for the day... and won't post much more til tomorrow morning.
  22. wdrag
    It is..ditto sleet (ice pellets) and I think hail too.
  23. wdrag
    CoCoRahS climate sites final for D1. I'll have a D1-2 combo tomorrow at this time. Click maps for clarity. This gives an idea... imperfect but quite a snow gradient in Sussex County NJ ranging from 6" southeast to over a foot northwest. My count at 10AM in Wantage is 13.1.
  24. wdrag
    Single model operational cycle guidance tends to be a little high, but I've attached the National BLEND OF MODFELS and is offering widespread 50-65 MPH gusts in the northeast USA Tuesday night, particularly the ridges even down to TN/NC and the coasts. Expecting 850 MB (~5000') winds in the 85-100 kt range for 3-6 hours across the northeast USA, I'd say we can't avoid at least scattered power outages, particularly NYS, and coastal NJ/LI. The good news = few leafed trees. Still with leftover snow covered branches I84 north and/or rain softened ground due to the top 5 December rainfall up here and possibly January excesses (CP top 10 would be 6"), suggests to me to be prepared and no crying after the fact. IFFFF and when the NWS issues watches for flooding and wind, be smart and get safely ready and prepare. Guidance is not perfect but am sure we'll construct a future outcome that will be of value. I just interpret what I think is increasingly better guidance from numerous government resources (models etc). The attribution for the improvement is a combination of research, higher resolution modeling both in the short and long term. Cellar flooding and river flooding coming up for quite a few folks as well as power outages (percentage of population may be small but the impact radiates out to family-first responders, DPW's etc). Most of the oncoming rain in 9 hours Tuesday night. Here's the blend of model wind gusts... yellow starts 60 MPH. Snapshots at 00z/10 which is 7PM EST Tuesday and 06z/10 which is 1AM EST Wednesday. These numbers are tempered down via the blend from individual global model predictions.
  25. wdrag
    https://satable.ncep.noaa.gov › naefs Ensemble Situational Awareness Table The NAEFS Ensemble: A 52-member ensemble consisting of 31 GEFS ensemble members and 21 Canadian (GEPS) members. The GEFS has 30 perturbed members and a control member. The GEPS has 20 perturbed members and a control member. Although the GEFS and GEPS are run at native resolutions of 25 and 39 km, respectively, the NAEFS is distributed on a 1x1 ... THI Grand ensemble forecast is I think input once/day and then presuming the RFC has the antecedent conditions correct, the river responds to the qpf. I'll show you with the attachments. The RFC forecast itself only out to Jan 10 while this Jan 6 12z ensemble is out to 10 days. Therefore its when the period ends that determines max river stage. If the ensemble is wrong, the river response is different. I think the ensembles are pretty good now, and it's a matter of forecaster input into the model that determines the river stages that make the curve. I use NAEFS in winter: GEFS seems conservative in winter. HEFS, I've no experience. I think it is wise to consider the NAEFS ensemble river forecast as a good first guess... The following should help for Pine Brook: I hope this is useful and you can verify Wednesday and beyond.
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