wdrag

Do I have it wrong?

We are looking at different t solutions. Maybe. I have it wrong? I’m not counting on below normal into Feb. That isn’t consistent with data from The 8th in what I look at. In less clarified that I’m looking at wrong data I’ll post later after I walk the dog

That's not what I saw on the 9th weeklies. Feb 3 onward normal or above temps. Not sure what you used. Maybe I'm using the wrong weeklies. I can post what I saw when I get back at 530. Thanks for checking, Walt

No thread from me on 1/19-22 events... not tonight. Will rereview tomorrow...would like to see more consistent 1"+ snow depth change on LI. I dont want to be threading LI with a bit of snow-sleet-mostly rain. Interior I think is good for periods of snow ice with maybe a touch of rain. No BIG qpf output this 1/19-22 period, so far.

Will look at a thread this evening for 1/19 ish but I need time... plenty of home activities. It's VERY VERY early for me to thread and haven't looked at ensembles beyond 06z/9. Watch for branches tumbling today-this evening.

So hopefully no one on here is bummed with the dusting to 2" Saturday morning-midday. Should stick everywhere with CP getting something on the snowboard for either or both the 12z and 18z obs. Better than nothing.

My 2c perceptions based on ensemble modeling. Northeast USA next Tuesday-Wednesday: Wind driven reinforcing cold shot. Around Thursday January 16 PA-NJ-MD-DE-CT-MA-LI: areas of snow or snow showers should dust portions of this area with 1/4-1" of snow. UNCERTAIN target area but the snow could briefly be a hazard since it will be very cold again with frozen surfaces! Late Saturday January 18-early Wednesday the 22nd: Probably one or maybe two eventual threads but would like to isolate to a short time frame, just as this current Jan 6-11 period split into two threads: mainly interior northeast USA along or just northwest of Interstate 95 from VA-DC to Boston up through NYS and the Great Lakes. Worthy of monitoring for eventual adjustment of travel plans. Either a "potentially" large moderate to high impact event or two separate minor events including NYC-LI. It probably will be snow or ice mix in the northeast except along I95 where maybe more of a wintry mix briefly to rain? Another shot of very cold air should follow around the 22nd. Will check back tomorrow and see where all this is at. Enjoy a seasonably cold wintry day exacerbated by the well in advance modeling of 40-60 MPH strong wind gusts.

I think both continue on the table, the 19th-22 should eventually need a thread but waiting out the 11th first. For now, looks pretty good in all the ensembles for some and ice throughout the NYC subforum but also rain will probably be a part of the answers for the I95 corridor. NAEFS BL temp looks above 32F at times so while I cant currently get hopes up for 2+" of sticking snow in CP, I think we'll see wintry hazards for our interior one or two of these 4 days and therefore trackable, even if it doesn't satisfy our snowy wants in NYC-LI-s CT. I hope a thread of interest can wait until late Saturday so it can be backed up with a little basis. Remember the Monday 1/6 event was very-very well forecast for the Ohio Valley 7-8 days in advance but the big snow axis was about 180 miles too far south of early model ensemble anticipations here east of Appalachians.

am letting this play out... I think most of us will see 01.-0.5" but melting on pavement near I95 so it may not be as much as the decent mood brightener of this past Monday. Burst of light snow or snow showers in the morning, and then seemingly backside early afternoon.

Hoping daily EC-EPS is wrong about 60MPH wind gusts within about 30 mile radius off High Point NJ tomorrow between 5AM and 3PM. Looks rough for us here...power outages I think will have to happen. Guidance seems to verifying well here at 00z/9.

Around Thursday January 16 PA-NJ-CT-MA-LI: areas of snow or snow showers should dust portions of this area with 1/2-2" of snow. UNCERTAIN target area but the snow could briefly be a hazard and the max amount may only be an inch? Where is the target for accumulative snow. No thread til we get past the 11th event and even then maybe no thread, especially if target for a minor 1" s outside of our NYC subforum. January 19-22 NO THREAD from me until some sort of consistent thermal modeling develops but all modeling says there will be an event. Is it mainly rain here in NYC with a little ice-snow to start? I've taken the pessimistic view to start. Overall I think a "potentially" large areal coverage wintry impact event probably evolves first over the southern USA as rain around the 19th-then becomes larger as it moves northward the 20th-22nd. Does it come out in pieces? It probably but not certainly, should be a snow or ice mix in the northeast, at least to start. No thread since 12 days away and what I perceive as vast uncertainty on thermal structure.

A small snow event seems likely Saturday morning-midday the 11th with dustings to possibly at worst 3 inches but am not playing up a major event. Still travel will be slowed in some areas. Maybe the most favored area for uncertain snowfall of 1-3" is the immediate coast of NJ/LI/CT. Treated roads melt but timing of occurrence will have a bearing on the hazard potential, especially with ice cold surfaces preceding this event. Attached WSSI-P graphic for MINOR impact Friday afternoon-Saturday morning. Legend for probs. Red is 60% chance.

Through Thursday I84 corridor: Windy winter cold, especially Thursday when the wind gusts should be a little worse than yesterday. That means scattered power outages from a few trees and large downed limbs. Ridge gusts Thursday in eastern PA/northern NJ, eastern NYS and west of the Connecticut River in New England will probably reach 55-60 MPH by 8 or 9AM Thursday. I might be hitting this too hard. ut I'd be prepared. This looks a little rugged for high profile vehicles and keeping safe heat going if you lose power. Scattered flurries, especially tonight and early Thursday with wind blown dustings in the Poconos and Litchfield County CT.

Heading to Atlanta soon. I like it. Thread works... and I'm not down on the moderator - just everything these days is excesses. I think when we get another 2-3 foot snowstorm, folks will get sick of it, after the exhausting anticipation I'll take 2-8" repeat storms in a 3 week period any day... Let's move forward and enjoy whatever snow occurs Saturday morning. I saw CP on TV and the snow Monday looked quite nice.

I kind of figured... the Mt Holly post tipped me, especially Mt Holly. I probably wouldn't have said anything. Moving forward.

Hey guys and gals, young and old. I was disappointed in our thread headline and the NWS post you just shared (was it real?). If that PHI post was real, that prompted me to make this comment. Sure I wanted to start the thread but not with a galvanizing headline and if that PHI post is/was real... they're joining the fray of juicing interest. Nothing has changed since 20 years ago when I was juicing interest. Ensembles have tempered my enthusiasm in recent years. Free speech also comes with controlled responsibility to not trigger excessive responses-the op models already do that. So maybe I am misunderstanding the purpose of our posts---toward a reasonable outcome of the reality with some effort to add a couple of supporting graphics-text outcomes. There is always a range of possibilities but our community needs to keep it within reason. I know I'm in trouble with some of our posters-moderators but I had speak up for what I think is best for our science. Fingers crossed that you all get the snow you want to see these next few winters.

Try 1/5-1.5" ABE-MPO... the 1" in LI where they are posted are realistic. Depends on when people measure.

Am not a fan of "over" or "under" performing but I know its a way of saying below or above expectations. It's just the models not quite "whatever" to be as accurate as expected.

Summary of snowfall for the mainly Jan 6, 2025 event (Jan 5 midwest) which ended up about 180 miles (3 degrees) south of its D8 axis in the northeast USA but within a degree of its D8 in the Ohio Valley. See p1 guidance--incredibly accurate midwest.

Funny... I just look at basics..daily norms etc. Jan 20 CP Max 35-40, Min 25-30 low. 18z/20 ensembles are all just above freezing which tells me maybe melting on streets? NAEFS 00z/21 BL temp just sub freezing here... so odds permit snow. Let it snow... One thing seems to stand out is the snow hole here in se CT/se MA recent event and future modeling,

KAOO: Altoona, Altoona-Blair County Airport, PA, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KHPN: White Plains, NY, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KLGA: New York, La Guardia Airport, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KMPO: Mount Pocono, PA, United States [47kt, 24m/s] I saw a 50 Knot at Mt Pocono recently.

These negativity posts need specifics. Maybe reviewers aren't looking at the spectrum of models. My confidence in modeling is very high. Imperfect yes. D8 off by 150 miles but an event was heralded...just up to the individual to cut a specific model some slack and realize that the reviewer might not be perfect either or not aware of model limitations.

Door opens for melting and rain as temps warm to normal. Timing.

Following up on Don's post of several days ago regarding the disconnect in the BOM QPF vs snowfall; here is a reply from Pivotal that confirms Don's post of several days ago. The is a frank response that I do not want shared as an insult-put down for anyone trying to improve our science. Thank you for your respect on this particular post. Hi Walter, Thanks for reaching out. The short answer is that there are sometimes internal inconsistencies within a single NBM run as you switch between forecast fields. The NWS NBM is a hodgepodge blend of numerous models and ensembles. Confusingly, the composition of which models are used in the blend changes depending on the forecast time and even the forecast field. We do see the discrepancy you mentioned from the 19z/04 NBM run, and have verified that this discrepancy between the snowfall and QPF variables actually exists in the raw NBM data files from NCEP. For example, in the 6-hour period between forecast hours 53-59 of that run, the data file shows ~0 QPF on Long Island but up to ~1" of snowfall. Our best guess is that NOAA MDL uses a different blend of models to produce the QPF field vs. the snowfall field, and in this case, one or more models that were only used for snowfall had a more northward storm track. The official NBM documentation here should provide more details, although it is pretty dense and loosely organized: https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm-documentation It may also be worth reaching out directly to NOAA MDL if you want a definitive answer on how they compute a specific NBM variable at a specific forecast lead time. If you do reach out and they ask which NBM version we're using, you can let them know that we are using the publicly available grib2 files from NCEP. Best, PW Team

My only thought on 96 and even through 2010 ish... models weren't nearly as good. Those of us who're in our 70s and older (hands please) , have witnessed spectacular improvements in general model consensus through at least 5 days... even this storm just passed was thread started the 30th, couched in the uncertainty (see p1 of the Jan 6 thread if interested)). Maybe even those on here who're only `60 (born in 65), probably are aware of the spectacular improvement. ALL of us should now know how helpful the short term models are (HRRR(X) and RAP. Ditto the science of medicine but I won digress.