wdrag

now 0.8 and 1/2S

VERY NICE!! way ahead of the part of the SC where only near 1/2".

4 MTR sites with 1/4 S+ in se PA now...should advance ne next several hours. have had very little the past 90 min. stuck near .4" so far in Wantage NJ. Other places se of Wantage in NJ doing better.

No changing dates at this time. I know we have one possible 24-25 but still can see a grazer Central southern NJ e LI. Never played this up but it's out there, especially tomorrow once we get through tonights mess. Thanks for waiting it out with me.

Hope everyone knows it's going to be an inch an hour I95 corridor for several hours 3P-9P. I see 1/4 S+ at Altoona recently and nice bands developing in e PA. Enjoy... you have a ways to go for snow on pavement but I think it will get out of control slippery in the that sundown to 10P stretch... temps falling with occasional brief heavy snow 1/4S+. One accident and its not pretty. Just good that this is a holiday weekend. Had a T in Wantage at 1P but now 0.3" 150P. Just got back from a family RT to Atlanta Friday Noon to today 10A. Catching up. I kind of think anyone complaining about less than 6" of snow should be happy instead of sad. SPC HREF VERY consistent past 3 cycles. It and CSI banding daily the region I95=I84 with large snowfall increases. Not sure if anyone spotty SPCHREF past 2 cycles 8+ parts of interior se NYS. Complaining about the Canadian...I want to wait for the results first and then we can evaluate tomorrow morning via CoCoRaHs or whatever you wish.

I think your RGEM pronouncements are premature. It was the first model to signal big... its southeast move might 50 miles but it is locked. While I may. be wrong I'm planning on big doings nw of I95 including large snowfall frigates and higher ratios. You should start seeing spotty 1/4S+ e PA near 3PM. offline now.

That's ok... most of that will probably fall in a 4 hr period within the 12 hr snowfall. Am leaving it to all of you to figure it out. Just glad something is happening, even if the CANADIAN axis was too far west ditto their positive snow depth axis. This will be a healthy storm with nnw wind gusts on LI 30-35 MPH I think by midnight Sunday night.

Hi! Looks like a brief period of 2"/hr snowfall rates near the green circles, se NYS near 6P, and a period of general 1"/hr snowfall rates 3P-9P along and west of I95. Please see attached WPC HREF snowband members, and the HREF green 6" swath from the 12z/18 cycle (old news?) and the general NWS snowfall prediction as available from their databases at 3PM, plus their odds on various thresholds at CP

Very simple thread that may not produce for most of our NYC subforum but LI and south of I80 in NJ seem threatened. Again, this may be a null event for us but am sure it will have some conversation in what is our last half of January series of wintry opportunities. At 917A added 00z/18 CMCE, 00z and 06z/18 EPS and no GEFS since it was snow free this far northwest

I agree.. am away but will consider a thread for this late today or tomorrow.

You're very welcome as all. We're going to have to see the NAM get on board... this is bothersome for me. 06z EC not as robust as I expected but nonetheless... CP west-north is in the game. Make it happen NY... I don't want 40 pages of 1/2" in CP. It's been the usual interest for tracking Lets do a better than an inch.

Good Friday morning. everyone. No new 1/21-22 thread nor a 1/24-25 thread. Uncertainties and think we have enough to look at for 1/19.

NWS ensemble probabilities issued this morning for various minimum thresholds of snow. These are pretty high for D3. I hope this works out ok. Much of eastern LI might be suppressed to an inch or so by rain and milder temps. You'll know better. Am off-line much of the next 3 days.

In case anyone was looking. No second thread from me for the 22nd, but another pretty decent short wave at the bottom of the departing polar vortex moving ne of the Great Lakes will whip through here. For now, not worth a fringe outlook but will revisit tomorrow morning. I'm more interested in the 24th which will clearly have backing flow up the east coast as the PV moves to Baffin Bay Area. Not starting a thread for that till more consensus and its 8 days away but it looks fairly juicy to me. Will recheck Friday as time allows.

No second thread for the 22nd, but just so you know another pretty decent short wave at the bottom of the departing polar vortex moving ne of the Great Lakes will whip through here. For now, not worth a fringe outlook but will revisit tomorrow morning. I'm more interested in the 24th which will clearly have backing flow up the east coast as the PV moves to Baffin Bay Area. Not starting a thread for that till more consensus and its 8 days away but it looks fairly juicy to me. Will recheck Friday as time allows.

Wantage NJ 0.2" at 7P small flake snow still in progress.

New thread delayed til 7P. Hope that’s. It a problem

Just updated thread title Discussion-OBS minor-mdt 1-7" slippery impact 7-14 hr snowstorm mainly btwn Noon Sun 1/19-4AM Mon Jan 20. Heaviest axis near or just inland I95. New thread for next unknown snow amount event with a large range from fringe 1" to at least moderate 1/22-early 1/24 begins about 530PM. Our 1/19 event that the NAM is trying to find for the first time in its 18z/16 cycle is fairly well produced now by all other modeling with the axis of greatest accumulation still a bit uncertain but seems to be shaping up near or just west of I95 to possibly as far northwest as I84. I added 7" in the title because I'm pretty sure we can see a stripe of 7" but where. C park????? may see its first 4" snowfall since 1/29/22 (thanks to our XMACIS experts). There should be some pretty good banding for a few hours near or after sundown Sunday, and for now seems to locate near or west of I95. Snow ratios should be a little higher in the colder air. You have the ensembles and we'll see how this works out. Had a bottom number 1". It's possible that the Island might have some melting and also a little rain so cant promise there, but this looks to me like we'll see snow everywhere, just how much. Above freezing temps I95 corridor eastward permit melting on contact during the afternoon I95 corridor and LI but after sundown, presuming its snowing, travel conditions can deteriorate rapidly. The good news is that Monday is our Martin Luther King holiday and Inauguration Day so traffic should be less. WPC midday significant snow map attached. The post events temps should still concentrate on the January thread. I'd like to see the 18z GFS regarding the second event which has a pretty good chance of getting fringe snowfall up here 22nd-23rd. That one wont thread til about 530 PM.

Will make a decision on thread wording (probably removing doubts for Sunday evening) for 19-20 at 430P, and I see 00z/16 ECAI NOT mirroring the too fast 00z/16 EPS for the 22nd. That latter one still undecided but likely just northern fringe at worst here late 22 or 23. Beyond that on the bigger se USA threat, just not sure except WSSI-P is big on it being a large scale storm se USA up to NJ. Have a day -my last til 430

06z/16 GFS finally shifted the surface low on Sunday morning further s, allowing better overrunning and now more similar to the other modeling. I expect EC will come around. Its not over, but we're still in the game for a slippery Sunday evening.

No thread for this afternoon-night buts plan on placing your obs here... Widespread flurries, patches of snow showers. My guess is CP T-0.3", eastern LI-e CT may see 1/2-1" amounts in some places (ocean enhanced a bit). Poconos an inch or a bit more. Spotty 1/2" amounts into w NJ/se NYS. Enjoy the flakes.

Good Thursday morning, I've no changes to the thread headline this morning and our anticipations. You're all over it... until the RGEM goes away, I'm staying right with earlier thread notes. Melting on pavement Sunday afternoon, till just after sundown... then potentially very slippery. I was surprised to see the EPS so fast for the next one around Wednesday so, no headline change. Two events should give us some snow. NOTE: VERY cold Mon night-Wed which I think is being discussed in the Jan thread. I've no thoughts beyond the 24th... too many model uncertainties before that.

Suggest following the RGEM vs the prior cycle CMC to see Canadian trends. No thread title change and no split into two events til tomorrow morning, if it looks possible. I continue sure that we'll see 1-2" NYC CP Sunday afternoon evening (I definitely can be wrong) and then I think the way the 5H vortex flies north mid week, and the flow backs on the east coast that a large scale event is probably coming up the eastern USA late 22-24. Dont want to mislead so follow the models and your own expert reads-ensembles, NWS and CPC guidance etc and go from there. My next post probably tomorrow morning. The downer side: daily weekly EPS continues dry axis here 1/20-27.

Perfect Don! Thank you very much. Walt

Hi! That's wayyyyyy back even before. my last move BOX got PHI in June 2010 (HOT summer there). Hopefully it's a good life for all participants hereon.