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vsby 3/4SW- here in Wantage NJ. melting as it falls 31.5 down from earlier--916A Trace of whitening on grass/dirt but only a T and snowboards wet. 919A. sun out,

So this is the best we can do in what was once a long-long outlook (Feb 27 start) for a hazardous wintry snow event here this 3/6-10 period. Flurries now, maybe again tomorrow morning, maybe again Sunday night? Northern stream didnt deepen-dig quite as much modeled, probably because it left the southern stream energy behind so no phasing. Flurries are not a victory,but the chosen period was reasonable when outlooked earlier in the thread. More opportunities for 3/17 and beyond. First we may see heavy rain and high wind next weekend. No threads.

Yesterdays 12z/6 SPC HREF kind of missed the 1-2" swath along and e of I95. I dont think most of the modeling had NYC-LI close to what occurred.

CoCoRaHs 2/2-3/6. Not too bad on GEFS prediction around 2/1. Not all correct but more so than not... Here tis. If interested click for clarity.

Wind advisory type events: IF, group wants an OBS thread for the isolated damaging gusts of 60MPH and somewhat more widespread 46MPH gusts I 80 south in PA/NJ, and across LI in the 3PM-midnight time frame, let me know. Otherwise just post here... we're getting 50+ now Delmarva. A repeat wind advisory episode should occur along and NORTH of I80- especially I84 corridor ridges midnight-Noon Friday morning including Poconos, much of CT, nw NJ, Southern NYS and probably marginally into LI. That one is the CAA backside segment. ALSO, Bob Harts wind extreme web site etc is discontinued due to Federal Funding issues. That means you have to go to other sources to keep up with max gusts. fwiw below: Comparison of drought monitor a year ago... borrowed from another link.

Two successive runs, 12z-18z/3, of enough members of the GEFS to phase and run us a nor'easter snowstorm the 9th. No other ensembling is close to the GEFS so, it could be - easy come easy go - if no phasing with the the southern Rockies remains of a closed low. The only thing I can say is that this fits days of ensembling that least some snow would occur I84 corridor with the GEFS tending to be most certain in the cyclic variations. Check back tomorrow to see if its gone or other modeling supports.

I look at GEFS monthlies out to 35 days... the data proposed on FEB 1 for our area through March 7 was pretty good... only short by half a foot on snowfall nw NJ-ne PA and near Asheville. Otherwise I thought helpful and the rainfall will work out to between 3-5" by the time Match 7 arrives.. already sitting at 2.25-3.5" the past month and the storm of 3/5 coming. That will have been good. That said... I add the GEFS through 4/1 as issued 00z/2. Take it for what its worth... keeping us steady in drought but not alarmingly short the next 4 weeks with some robins snow possibilities for NYC, and shovelable inches I84 corridor (yes I think we're all going to see a little snow here 3/6-3/10). So here goes. {+ snow depth change, 10-1 ratio snowfall, rainfall (yellow 4, browns 5+), modeled drought change which looks to me to be too conservative east slopes of the Rockies where drying and following summer heat may be a little more pronounced than currently outlooked and the drought monitor as of last week. For us in NYC... guidance might be a little high but I suspect close to 4" by the time March ends. It all starts 3/5. We can go back and check April 2... places along the east coast where I've drought concern is MD south. It's only a model ensemble, but I think we'll rainfall within an inch of modeled up here... and snowfall is more uncertain but for I84 its not a shutout.

Wantage NJ low 15.1 with wind and another slight dusting of snow on the ground by 5AM. Small possibly hazardous snow for the period 3/8-10 continues to look good, also now 3/14-16 period mixed. Small chance damaging wind potential Wed aft/eve convection, looks potentially somewhat more significant on NW flow across the ridges Thu night. Optics on WPC D7 qpf and chance 4" of snow (3z-05z/2) doesn't seem well coordinated. Problems for the public could start cropping up very soon on weather information dissemination from government sources.

Large differences between 00z/1 GEFS vs EPS-GEPS for 3/8-10. The latter two ensembles do not permit the southern system from coming north. From looking at the 5H 06z/1 ensemble members... it appears to me that a southern system will come north to affect our area with hazardous snow... that's my opinion only, probably more 3/9. I'll only back down when the GEFS shows WESTERLY flow here and confluence south of I80. All the 192hr 06z/1 green 5H members in the TN Valley is what I'm monitoring for change in the future. Alsmot looks like we're trying to separate streams. One day at a time.

All 12z/28 ensembles have the only 15 day chance of a widespread wintry hazard for the I84 corridor March 8-9. No there comment til this weekend.

As far I'm concerned, we're still in the game for the 8th-9th... modeling all over the place. There is no ECAI EPS yet... give this 3 more days to ferret out the multiple solutions. We should know by wakeup 3/4 whether there is a legit risk for a hazardous weather event. Trop tidbits is much faster displaying the ECAI MSLP and qpf. while Pivotal so far, is slower on delivery but much more info including snowfall.

It did...spotty traces and nice look for 15-20 minutes around 715A, mostly colder surfaces but roads and most of driveway wet and no new salting. Saw this morning 0.2" snowfall ne PA - w of PJ - north of I84.

No big deal? Trace here. Roads have to be wet there, just like here.

fwiw.... 12z/27 EC AI already out... further s and pretty big for wintry event I84. Has to be wrong... only 1 member. Can't count on this. Ditto 3 cycles of the GEFS 24 hr snow depth change showing 1-3" accums I84. I'll leave it alone for a day of cycles to see if anything continues significant FOR US. This is the only widespread hope on the horizon for our area so far and it's in the realm of low reliability.

Two days later, March 5-6 event mostly wet (except maybe tail end?), but March 8-early 9 imo continues to look decent for a widespread wintry hazard I84 corridor. The ECAI will have to warm up in future cycles to prevent a slippery accumulation of ice and wet snow mainly just north of I84. Models waffling here, back and forth. Not writing this off. 06z/27 AI 2m temp pretty cold throughout the event just n of I84 and marginal (33-34F) just s of I84 where its maybe too warm for snow. This 32F 2M temp is even with the warmer northward shift since 00z/27. ECAI seems a bit too strong of a storm but definitely a nice following short wave to the 3/6 short wave. For us up here I84 corridor, I think we're in the game but not the kind of pure snow I like to see. GRAPHCAST 2M T is.a little warm but 850 cold enough for snow accumulating in elevations entire I84 corridor. I will monitor for something hazardous 9 days (3/8) in advance and see if it holds, and maybe a comeback tail end on 3/5...again I84 corridor interests.

I think this is pretty good... YES Poconos had big early season and damaging snow storm with 10-20+" wet snow.

Ensembles say we're in the game even if LI is shut out the next two weeks. North of I84 has a little hazardous covering early Thursday (snow or ice). Outlook beyond for the I84 corridor: while there might be a minor less than 2" event there in the hills this weekend, the more widespread risk for a period of hazardous snow and ice exists between March 6-10. Too early to be sure, since those events could end up wet, but if you like snow, March 6-10 is the better opportunity. AFTER March 12, a potentially lengthy eastern USA warmup should develop that could result in periodic much above normal temps between roughly March 12-21-looking like springlike conditions.

So far: This looks pretty accurate...

Some finals, past 24 hr CoCoRaHs snowfall, and the entire mid Atlantic 2 totals totals from NOHRSC. If interested click for clarity.

CoCoRaHs data this morning had a bunch of T's snowfall southwest of NYC. Sometimes I think observers got to it late, wind impacted measuring, or that less than 1/2" was commented as a T-the latter I hope I'm wrong. Imperfect... but the main thing, many had a little snow to brighten spirits last evening. I see nothing confidently more than 0.1" CP snowfall for at least a week.

Snowfall axis past 48 hours ending 12z/21. The main one was a 250-300 mi miss to the south on the D6.5 ensemble outlook issued around 4A/14. Our general snowfall in the area was roughly near 1/2", with the primary scooting out to sea well ahead of the ULL that crossed NJ-LI near 00z/21. These cool season max axis departures on D6 multiple model agreement ensembling is troubling-something that I think will be reduced considerably over the next 5-10 years, provided our science will be permitted the tools. For now, my winter time threads based on cyclic ensembling agreement will be limited to at most D5. Less lead time, an attempt to detect the sudden departures from the glide slope of the D6-7 cyclic expectation. This will reduce thread disappointment, but mean that American Weather comments cannot imply need for thread till we are more assured of snowfall-those comments depositing in the monthly thread, if needed.

Thanks for this post Don. I want to add... The LGA snowfall was on an ASOS T... doesn't work that way in temps 20s. That needs NWS fixing as does NYC and EWR meager or nonexistent w.e. Common sense tells you from the web cams that this is too low for W.E... I'd use 13 to 1 NYC metro, as per modeled snowratios prior to the event. Guess that doesn't mean much in the big scheme of things except when someone goes back to verify model qpf, or check on days with measurable w.e.

CPC issued 2/20 is attached, however it reliability and implications are uncertain beyond March 10 since we should start the first week of March, normal or colder than normal with events of sorts around March 2, March 5-6. The wintry risk on those seems to be mainly north of I80 (especially the I84 corridor). Just hoping March can produce 4" of rain which is bit below normal for CP (4.29") and even with below normal snowfall (norm = 5"), receive enough snow in CP to raise our seasonal total to 15" (a hopeful 2.1"). Even with these values, drought might persist. Reservoirs for NYC per DEP on 2/20 are about 15% below normal and it would be nice if Match could become actively wetter than normal. The CPC outlook is attached.

A hand for PHI... just published their snow reports... click for clarity.