wdrag

Probably my last on Tuesday mornings event (or non if it doesn't pan out). 13z/21 Blend of Models and EPS prob of >1"

Am not following up. I will say this. This event is the way I more frequently remember in the 50s60s. Blowing drifting cold. This is a more reasonable start to winter.

Still unsure when we're going to warm above normal again. in CP..probably past 12/26...but big time... not likely til the 30th. Do we need to reassess winter in CP based on a weak or non Nina?

OK... further stats if not previously covered CP. First inch historically, correct me if I'm wrong. 12/19. I saw something else a few pages ago, but I checked XM. Again correct me. First two inches historically 12/27, presuming we exceed two today,

So, I'd like to go back to start of this thread and point out something. The Blend of Models-top graphic was pretty accurate and depicting the primary threat region for biggest snow... see blue hues. It was two times as much in reality. Also STATS based off a NWS forecast suites, were HUGELY in error... imo... BUT.... we found back in the 2015-18 time frame that the MAX AMOUNT probably was often exceeded. So we don't budget enough info for the high end... I presume CP will end up with 2+ today...

Hard to believe no report as of 750A... but at least we have 2.2 Newark and 2.0 LGA so far per OKX LSR.

The chance for a white Christmas in CP NYC looks like a legit possibility as well as most surrounding environs w LI, sw CT, NNJ.se NYS ne PA. am expecting dusting of snow Tuesday morning around sunrise. That should help.

Looking for the official CP report...is there one? I saw the 2" of snow on the ground at KEWR.

Just waking up to a solid 4.4" event this part of Wantage NJ, fine flake snow in progress.

Wantage-this southern lower part.. 0.5" 29F

you'll double or triple what you have now, by 6AM Saturday.

Hi! Thought it might be interesting to check-speculate on a white Christmas (since I didnt see the topic earlier). Been watching the EC SNOW DEPTH guidance. I Another uncertain minor 2-6 hour snow event possible between 6A-Noon Tuesday the 24th, that should leave fairly large chunk of our area to qualify as 1" of snow on the ground Christmas morning (rounding 1/2" up). Temps in the interior will be at or below freezing by sundown today and continue possibly through 10AM Christmas Day. So where we exceed an inch today, we have a chance of 1/2" or more on the ground Christmas morning. Attached the op 12z/20 ECMWF attempt to predict snow depth. Grey is about 1/2". XMACIS 12/25 CP amounts attached. I checked EWR which also dates back to 2009 when they 4 on the ground in the morning. . Last time CP moe than 1/2" on the ground on Christmas Day...2009. Probably not going to happen but it might. Depends on tonight and Tuesday morning.

Wantage NJ 0.2" as of 1215P 29F. Roads wet, some driveway-sidewalk pavement snow covered.

no insights right now... bottom line... not sure what drives raw NWS snow forecasts, but the NBM I thought was supposed to be a first cut for the forecasters database? Any NWS forecaster comment? One thing I do know... to respond to model trends, you've got to be nimble or you'll probably be in error--- though NOT always. Takes ALOT of concentrated effort within 2 hours of issuance time (330A/330P). If you're committed to available data at midnight-noon, your briefings at 5A/5P could be missing something important? Again not always.

Something in terms of snow will happen. we're not going to go into the Saturday night arctic airmass without an event