wdrag

Intensity skews the Ambient too high... Light rain usually very close but when it gets intense, the automated gage runs too high. At least it rained

Yes criteria gusts at many of the ASOS's 40-43 kt as of 3PM ish. Conversion factors on the 06z models except ECMWF were too weak. Multi NWS office Wind Advisory verifies! Power outages today, almost twice that of yesterday-see below. We've had a brief outage in Wantage NJ. Most of the branches I've seen down in Sussex County from Wantage, Andover-Hopatcong are the 1-2" dead ones but one larger in Hopatcong was being removed around 130PM. Outages by StateOutages by Utility New Jersey20,356 New York18,472 Pennsylvania17,100

Branches down SC NJ

Summary message: I could not go back to review the OHP between 16z-20z/30 for the unfortunate fatalities related to only very short fuse prediction of 1" in 15 minutes over NYC... results as cellar fatalities, again, as in prior city FF. That's the part that didnt work out in the thread. Otherwise see graphics below 1) CPC D8 1"+ heavy rain forecast (MDT risk) 2) CoCoRaHs region red and orange dot verification of the main axis of heavy rain (see legend) 3) NYC subforum rainfall 4) EPS 06z/31 5H... note negative tilt lobe to NJ 5) EPS 18z/30 12 hr 170M HFC over NJ... large 12 hr HFC's need to be contended with as event concerns...given adequate moisture. You can use these graphics to go back to p1 of this thread to verify the Sunday 10/26 post. Modeling was helpful for sure. GEFS rainfall and max gusts were terrible as compared to the EPS and EPSAI modeling.

Wantage NJ--- this part of, only 1.10.

All comments agreed... I am a little leery of the sounding but I erred on the side of caution mainly cause of EPS wind gusts and wet ground. Sometimes the EPS is 5 MPH too high and concerned the 12z HRRR itself as well as 06z NAM just not quite there. 06z FOUS BL wind 26 KT at KLGA which is just below my criteria for alerting wind advisory. 1 knot below is possible modeling error so it can happen but if it doesn't, then many models had us just below. anyway, caution advised this afternoon and a beneficial call.

NWS posted yesterday afternoon... its sort of marginal so I waited. Still looks marginal to me but err on the safety and will await your reports. I'll be offline til 9PM tonight. I am finishing up a summary post for yesterdays beneficial rain. It should. be out in 15 minutes.

I just checked the 06z/31 NAM/3K NAM, RAP and RRFS and all do not have max wind gusts 45+. So we should look back on model performance later today.

I just checked the 09z/31 HRRR and it doesn't forecast 45+ MPH for our area today except ridges/water. Maintain NWS messaging. I do think there will be a few gusts 40-44kt (46MPH+) so the conservative guidance is that... I can live with the 00z/31 SPC HREF MIN gust tool and the EPS MAX Gust tool.

I'll have a wrap up post around 930A inclusive of two day CoCoRaHs and one or two other graphics regarding predictability (the 1+"/ 30 min rainfall was not predictable in my opinion except short fuse warning).

If a moderator can pin the new thread topic. Thank you. Guidance has us marginal wind advisory criteria... my greatest concern is fully leaved trees in the rain softened ground toppling (after yesterdays wide spread 1.5-2.5" rainfall. OBS for Halloween 2025 afternoon-evening scattered gusts 45+MPH w a few damage power outage reports from limbs/trees down

Follow and. further NWS updated advisory statements and possible police detours. Now that yesterdays has passed, backside wind gusts will be increasing to 40 MPH throughout the area this afternoon, with scattered or isolated gusts to 50 MPH breaking a few tree limbs and even causing rain softened ground to permit fully leaved trees to possibly topple. This would be life threatening to those unfortunately in the path of limbs breaking. Be aware of possible detours and delays this afternoon-evening. Air travel continues to be impacted, especially Noon to near midnight with certainly delays, and probably some cancels. Using the 00z/31 EPS max wind gust tool, max gusts are anticipated to be 45-50 MPH with the SPC HREF Fire MINIMUM wind gust tool offering at a minimum, near 40MPH gusts on land, except 50 MPH one the ridges and of course on the water. I do not have access to other sounding wind gust tools. 714A/31

Another band of showers, some very briefly mdt-havy for NNJ-NYC NYS this eve as the 5H sort-trough axis and about 150M 12 hr Height Fall Center axis passes through, then the sfc wind turns west and drying begins with gusts 40 MPH tomorrow afternoon ,. As of now not planning a new thread for marginal wind alone tomorrow. I think today will have equaled or exceeded what ever tomorrow brings.

Sandy Hook briefly leveled at Moderate flood level 7.7' MLLW a few minutes ago. a 3' surge due to lowered pressure and timing of max gust 50 MPH inflow.

NOT overperforming... performing very close as modeled 5-6 days ago.