weathermedic

Looks like something popped just south of the sea breeze boundary in southeast Queens and heading towards southwest Nassau.

Hot spots are Toms River at 96 and Atlantic City 93.

Nice and steamy out there 77/74 at my station

From Upton’s Early morning AFD: NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A warm front approaches the region this morning. Warm advection ahead of the front coupled with lowering heights will be enough to support a band of showers and a few rumbles of thunders to develop across the NYC metro, Hudson River Corridor, western Long Island, and southwest Connecticut during the morning commute. There could be pockets of moderate to heavy rain. The showers should largely hold off further east until after the morning commute. No concerns for severe weather at this time due to lack of surface instability and no apparent wave along the warm front to enhance low level shear.

Up to 1.70 inches for the day so far here in Sheepshead Bay.

1.21. so far for the day at my station in Sheepshead Bay.

Low clouds and fog hanging tough as I drive through the Rockaways in Queens. Car temp of 68

From OKX AFD: Dry this morning, then expecting showers and thunderstorms to develop with a pre-frontal trough and an approaching cold front as it approaches later today. CAPE and shear will result in the organization for thunderstorms today. There is decent amount of CAPE in hail growth region. Specifically, RAP model is conveying 0-6km bulk shear of 25-35 kt moving into the region this afternoon with surface CAPE of around 1500-2000 J/kg. There is a chance some of the storms become severe. Main threats with these thunderstorms will be gusty winds, hail, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. There is a moderate risk of rip current development on the Atlantic beaches today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Evening starts off with the cold front right about to enter the region. Bulk shear 0-6km maximizes in 30-40 kt early this evening will allow for thunderstorms to remain organized but decreasing CAPE will lead to some loss of strength to the thunderstorms. Expecting the western half of the forecast region to be numerous to widespread with showers and thunderstorms and by the mid evening expecting this greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms to spread to the eastern half of the region if not shortly before. Same threat with thunderstorms before in the afternoon but again do expect a little weakening with the lower amounts of CAPE for Southeast Connecticut and Eastern Long Island where temperatures will be lower with the greater maritime influence.

DT released his winter forecast:

Larry Cosgrove in his latest blog says most of US to be in pac zonal flow with periodic cold air intrusions between the Rockies and Appalachians at least through the 3rd week of December.

He usually predicts something similar every year

Here is another "early" winter weather forecast: https://www.weatherconcierge.com/the-weather-concierge-winter-forecast-of-2018-19/

Bernie Rayno says to follow the upper low (just north of it's track) for the snow. Will make its own cold air. Has the northern half of PA, southern NYS and northern half of NJ, NYC and western L.I. for a changeover to snow.

...Or the once an hour (during the daytime hours-report was usually repeated for a couple of hours before it would be updated 2 or 3 times a day) for a live Accuweather report on 1010 WINS when Dr. Joe Sobel or Eliot Abrams or JB would come on the air.

Bernie Rayno said upcoming pattern looks like the first couple of weeks in Feb will be cold and stormy in the east. Not too enthusiastic about Mon-Tue. Says that may give eastern New England a few inches of snow. He said pattern looks like it wants to form a storm and move it up along the eastern seaboard in the next week Friday time frame. We shall see.

Jeff Smith from Channel 7 in NYC (AccuWeather outlet) just updated snowfall amounts

Bernie Rayno (used the word epic) heading in to work to make a video. Says no reason not to go with the 12z European. Also said to expect at least some mixing into I-95. "Tremendous" snow just west of 95

Well Bernie Rayno just tweeted he thinks there will be some mixing up to I-95 with the storm. Maybe he (and AccuWeather) are factoring that in to accumulations?

Bernie posted on Twitter a short while ago the GFS 12Z 500mb map is slowly coming around to the Euro showing a stronger storm for Sat-Sun. He will have a new video coming out after 2pm.

Nick Gregory's (from FOX-5 NYC) winter forecast http://www.fox5ny.com/weather/214931324-story?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter