weathermedic

Radar looks clear. Seabreeze front very prominent on radar and is splitting Long Island almost exactly in half running east to west.

Got this message from work. NYC Emergency Management has implemented their flash flood emergency plan due to thunderstorms. I don't see any thunderstorms in the forecast for NYC today or tomorrow and a 20% chance on Wednesday.

Upton's AFD regarding the heat mid-late week: A highly anomalous amplified upper flow will be featured across the country from mid to late week, with a trough out west and a a high centered over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Heights are greater than 594 dm, about 2 SD above normal, and 85H temps on Thursday on the latest 00Z GFS are at or just above 22C. There is still some uncertainty with the upper ridge strength and magnitude as disturbances round the ridge across the Northeast. The 00Z GFS is still supporting a convective complex dropping across the Northeast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, sending a back door cold front through the area. NBM temperatures for the long term were a few degrees too warm, especially for Thursday and Friday, most notably with a 105 high temperature near KTEB on Thursday. This seems too high with the aforementioned 22C at 85H. More realistic highs for NE NJ are upper 90s to lower 100s, slightly lower for NYC with the rest of the area in the middle to upper 90s, except cooler at the immediate coast. Slightly cooler readings are expected region-wide Friday. Record highs during this time are mainly 100 plus. So some pretty stout records are in place. If the NBM highs pan out however, they would tie or break records for Thursday. Max heat index values reach Heat Advisory criteria (95-99 for two days, 100-104 for one day) by Wednesday, with isolated readings reaching Extreme Heat Warning criteria (105+). Thursday will see widespread 105+ across the forecast area. Lower max heat index values expected Friday, with Heat Advisory possible for most places except NE NJ, NYC, and western Long Island, where Extreme Heat Warnings may be possible once again.

FFW for all of NYC except Bronx if I’m reading correctly

.22 here in Sheepshead Bay

Storms fizzled as they crossed the Hudson as is usually the case

Looks like the storm near Elizabeth is bowing now

Brooklyn Bridge Park in Brooklyn being evacuated due to the incoming (severe warned) storm

Cell by Cherry Hill in southern NJ just went severe warned with 60 mph winds and penny size hail

Upton's changed AFD as of 11:45am: -- Changed Discussion -- Have increased wind gust potential to 40 to 35 mph for this afternoon in evening, and decreased thunderstorm coverage for late this morning into afternoon

Anyone see the NYC point and click forecast from Upton for tomorrow: Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 86. Seems a bit confusing, or is it just me?

Got .78 of much needed rain last night at my station.

Moderate rain now with a few flashes of lightning and rumbles of thunder. Radar looks pretty solid. Hopefully we get at least half an inch from this

1pm NWS Obs: JFK-91 EWR-92 LAG-N/A CP-87 Dews a couple of degrees lower (right around 70) with the westerly wind component

91/74 HI-100

93/76 HI 107

88/75 Heat Index-98 at my station now

.12 at my station in Sheepshead Bay. Lots of trees and wires down In northern Queens as per the fire radio earlier this evening

Lag reported a gust to 64 mph

Up to 90 at my station. Earlier clouds have dissipated some and full sun has been back since about 1:45.

As far as this weekend's "cool" forecast is concerned, here is a portion of the OKX AFD, 850 temps near 0C: Temperatures return closer to normal for the end of this week into early next week. An upper level low originating in the Arctic and associated surface low drop down to the area late Friday into Saturday. This may lead to some showers for southern CT and Long Island. Much of the guidance has 850 temps near 0C with this feature on Saturday. This is well below normal for this time of year.

2.02 total so far at my station

Up to 1.08 now

.82 so far here with a decent slug of what appears to be moderate rain heading this way over central NJ

Very nice storm around here. Wind, pea sized hail and over 1.5 inches of rain so far