Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible over a portion of the Middle
Atlantic Thursday with locally strong to damaging gusts the primary
threat. Other strong to severe storms with locally strong to
damaging wind gusts will be possible over a portion of the Tennessee
and Ohio Valleys as well as eastern Oregon.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move from portions of the Mid-South into the
Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. A weak frontal boundary will push through
the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Ahead of the boundary,
moisture return is expected to continue through the day into the
Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. In the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies, a shortwave trough will impact the region
by late afternoon into the evening.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Widely-scattered to scattered convection is expected to develop both
ahead of the weak boundary and within areas of pre-frontal
confluence from northern Virginia into southeastern New York. There
remain uncertainties as to where the greatest boundary layer
destabilization will occur given cloud cover within the warm
conveyor belt as well as warm advection precipitation in North
Carolina/southern Virginia. Forecast soundings indicate a greater
potential for cloud breaks from northern Virginia into southeastern
New York. This area will also see a modest increase in 850 mb flow
by afternoon/evening which will increase the threat for damaging
gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado. Father north into eastern New
York/Vermont, there is less certainty on the degree of
destabilization, but relatively strong mid-level forcing should
promote scattered storms with some attendant threat for wind damage.
Mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, but where greater
buoyancy develops isolated large hail will be possible.