weathermedic

OKX AFD afternoon package: Showers and thunderstorm move through late tonight into early Friday morning in association with an approaching warm front. Thereafter, the region will be warm sectored with an approaching cold front to the west, deepening low pressure over northern New England/southeastern Canada, and a positively tilted upper level trough approaching from the west. After the passage of the warm front and ahead of the approaching cold front, winds shift to the SW and increase somewhat during the afternoon, bringing a surge of low level moisture, with dew points rising well into the 60s. Low level convergence along the cold front will allow for the development of low topped showers and thunderstorms that approach the western portion of the forecast area as a well defined squall line (as per most meso scale models) by late afternoon and early evening hours (anywhere from 5 pm to 7 pm, give or take an hour). With ample moisture in place, increasing low level convergence, and MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly for western portions of the area (NE NJ and Lower Hudson Valley). As the line approaches the coast, weakening is expected. However, even in these locations an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the forecast area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. The cold front and weakening squall line should push offshore between 9 pm and 11 pm, but post frontal rain looks to develop thereafter, keeping the chance for showers in the forecast for Long Island and southern CT through most of Friday night, with lesser chances as you head N and W.

Hit 90 down in DC today

Finished with 1.66 at my station

3.26 inches total so far at my station

Just broke the 3 inch mark with the moderate rain that is falling here now

Up to 2.17 inches so far here with more to come tonight

Strongest winds appear to be across Long Island and Connecticut now with gusts in the mid-upper 40s mph range. 44 mph at JFK and 49 mph at Farmingdale. This is based off of the 6am NWS Obs roundup.

2.10 inches storm total so far at my station

Another man killed by a falling tree in East New York Brooklyn earlier today

I'm at 1.14 so far

From Ryan Maue on X: Our friendly Nor'easter is in the process of "transitioning" to a hybrid cyclone with "diabatic" energy conversion capability. The convection near the center is indicative of energy conversion through ocean surface latent heat flux. Still not a hurricane, but fronts are mostly ditched, and we're left with a "secluded" area of warm air near center beneath a lowered/cold tropopause, so we're going into the subtropical cyclone business. Could this get a name? Sure, why not?

Convection really firing now on the northeast side of the center on satellite

Will once again open up the topic of whether this is now a warm core or a hybrid storm

Nice update from NYC EM via X (Twitter) NYC Emergency Management @nycemergencymgt · 22m NYC Emergency Management just wrapped a coordination call with the National Weather Service and City agencies. Here's where things stand and what's ahead. What's happened so far About half an inch to an inch of rain has fallen across the city. Gusts have reached 45 mph citywide and up to 55 mph at JFK. NYC Parks has received about 640 requests for downed or damaged trees since Friday, most in Queens and Brooklyn. Jamaica Bay reached major flood levels with this morning's high tide, and parts of Long Island Sound reached moderate flooding. What's ahead Tonight, about 8 p.m. through mid-morning Sunday: The heaviest rain arrives in bands falling at up to 1 inch per hour. Some areas could see 2 inches overnight, with localized amounts up to 3 inches. Isolated flash flooding is possible. Tonight into Sunday morning: Gusts of 45 to 55 mph continue, with an isolated gust to 60 mph possible. More downed trees and power outages are likely. Tonight's high tide: Around 8:15 to 9 p.m. on the south shore and near midnight along Long Island Sound. Moderate flooding is expected in Jamaica Bay and the Rockaways. Sunday's high tides: Around 8:30 to 9:15 a.m. on the south shore and around noon along the Sound. Moderate flooding is expected in Jamaica Bay and the Rockaways. The midday tide could bring more widespread moderate flooding to the coastal Bronx and northern Queens, including parts of Flushing and Astoria. Staten Island and Lower Manhattan should see minor flooding. Sunday afternoon: Winds drop off to gusts around 35 mph. Scattered heavy showers are possible into the evening, and showers linger into Monday. City beaches are closed to swimming and lifeguards are not on duty. Life-threatening rip currents are expected, so stay out of the water. Tonight through late Sunday morning is the worst time to travel. City crews are clearing downed trees, responding to flooding, and keeping rescue teams staged along the coast. If you live in a basement, be ready to move to a higher floor. Never walk or drive through floodwater, and stay away from downed lines. Report fallen trees to 311. Report damage to your home or business at http://reportdamage.nyc.gov. Text NOTIFYNYC to 692-692 for alerts. Basement apartment residents can sign up at http://nyc.gov/notify and select the basement apartment option to get automated phone calls during flooding.

Tidal flooding in Island Park Nassau County. Just heard MTA PD say there's a high water condition so no LIRR service on that branch east of Valley Stream