From OKX AFD
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Most of the showers with the passing warm front have lifted out
of the area. Unseasonable warmth expected for most of the area
today expect perhaps the forks of Long Island and far SE CT.
Followed lead of earlier HRRR guidance, with deep mixing to
700-750 mb and W-WSW flow sustained up to 20 mph and gusting up
to 30 mph promoting temps rising to the lower 80s from NE NJ
and NYC and western Long Island, and rising well into the 70s
across the rest of the CWA except perhaps SE CT and parts of
the forks of Long Island, before a strong back door cold front
sweeps across from the east late this afternoon into early this
evening. Latest HRRR guidance is slower with this frontal
passage and so is even warmer, with 80 degree readings up into
the Hudson Valley and 70s across nearly the entire rest of the
area except for coastal SE CT and the far ern forks of Long
Island.
Temps should drop suddenly after fropa on a gusty E flow late
today into this evening. Temps will fall to the 40s across SE
CT and ern Long Island and the 50s across SW CT and western Long
Island by sunset, and into the 50s across the NYC metro area
during the evening hours. Low temps will range from the upper
30s across ern sections to the mid 40s across NYC and NE NJ.
Per CAM`s the front may spark a few showers and possibly a tstm
mainly E of NYC via elevated instability after the front moves
through, then some additional elevated shower/tstm activity
should drift in from the west tonight. Low clouds also expected
due to the sharpness of the frontal inversion, also some patchy
fog in spots E-NE of NYC.
