weathermedic

-8 at Montgomery according to the 5am NWS Obs. Coldest reading on that obs.

2.5 inches here in Sheepshead Bay

Listening to NYC Sanitation on the scanner. Bosses gave the orders for the trucks to drop their plows.

And this is being described as a “weak” storm. Imagine if this was deepening rapidly

NWS just tweeted that

Radar filling in nicely around the Delmarva. Looks like it’s heading up towards NYC

Light graupel/sleet here in Sheepshead Bay. Temp down to 36 Sanitation actively salting the streets.

41/32 wet bulb 37. Winds NNE here in Sheepshead Bay

Look at the low from yesterday really wrapping up out in the Atlantic on the last few frames

Early morning AFD out of OKX discussing the colder model consensus and slightly more snow amounts for coastal areas: A developing low pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic today will gradually intensify this afternoon and slide south of the area resulting in widespread snowfall for the area. The latest guidance has come into better agreement with a SE trend of the center of the low pressure system as it passes to the south. This overall results in a cooler and snowier system for the coast. Light snow is expected to gradually move into the area early this afternoon from the SW. It remains possible that coastal areas at least initially mix with rain. As the intensity of the precipitation increases with the low strengthening and passing to the south, dynamic cooling should allow for any low level warmer air to cool to freezing resulting in any mix of rain/snow to become all snow. Snow becomes moderate to locally heavy at times over the CWA into the late afternoon. Heavier snow will be focused along any mesoscale banding on the NW side of the cyclone, but will be hard to pinpoint until it develops. Any location that is able to be under a heavier snow band may overperform regarding snowfall totals. The snow gradually dissipates from SW to NE tonight as the low pulls to the northeast of the area. Most of the accumulating snowfall should be done by midnight with only residual snow showers possible over Eastern CT. Snowfall totals are expected to be 6-8 inches for the warning areas, which has been expanded to include Northern New London County in CT and Eastern Bergen County in NJ. Snowfall totals have been slightly increased along the entire coastal CWA. The NYC metro will likely see anywhere from 4-6 inches, with Long Island and coastal CT expecting 3-5 inches. It remains very possible that any coastal area in the advisory see locally up to 6 inches of snow, and/or a subsequent upgrade to a warning, especially if the 12Z guidance continues a SE trend in the low track. This will also likely depend on how much initial mixing of rain occurs and the development of any heavy snow banding.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 5 inches. Locally higher amounts up to 6 inches possible, especially away from the immediate coast. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

Going to be a layer of ice under the snow in the areas where it starts off as rain or a mix.

Best not to count too much on the NAM until inside of 24 hours...we are just about that range now.

Great AFD from OKX on the upcoming storm: Then all eyes turn to a wave of low pressure moving across the lower Appalachians Sunday morning, then ENE to the Mid Atlantic coast later Sunday. Uncertainty remains high with mid level and the sfc low track / position, and thus high uncertainty around location specific temperature profiles. And this leads to high uncertainty around the derived liquid and frozen precip amounts. One big question right off the bat is how much sfc cold air can get all the way into the coastal plain for late Sunday morning as the wave of low pressure to our south begins to spin up. Therefore some light rain or a light wintry mix at onset towards mid day / early afternoon for at least the eastern 1/3, maybe even the eastern 1/2 of the region. Further west profiles look cold enough for mainly all snow, even at the onset. The higher PoPs and steadiest precip looks to take place for the late afternoon and into the evening. The system overall is quite progressive and this will keep liquid equivalent amounts / QPF in check overall. However, at least half inch liquid precip amounts are suggested by the majority of the high res guidance, mainly from 18z Sun to 06z Mon. Thus a complicated situation with the higher res guidance and even the global guidance now having more precip over the colder mid level baroclinic zone with arctic air attempting to press in from the west. The 500 mb vorticity track is suggestive of a wintry mix and climatologically speaking when you have the 500 mb vort bisect the region you often don`t have an all snow scenario for the coast. However, the system will be quite progressive and that offsets things some as the region looks to be completely on the cold side of the upper level jet dynamics. How much the cold air gets in determines precip type across eastern most areas and snow ratios further inland. This ultimately will determines liquid and subsequent snowfall totals. With all this said a Winter Storm Watch has been hoisted for most northern and northwester potions of the area. Thinking warning criteria snow is looking more likely across NW portions of the area, especially into most of the Hudson Valley and interior NE NJ, and across northern sections of Fairfield, New Haven, and Middlesex counties in CT for the potential for 5 to 8 inches of snow through Sunday evening. Elsewhere there is the potential for advisory level snow, and held off with any watches further east and southeast across the area with an increasing threat of mixing with rain, or perhaps just plain rain at the onset before a changeover to snow towards evening. The steadier precip shuts off fairly quickly towards midnight, say (04-06z Mon) as the system moves quickly NE. Thus any precip / snow tapers quickly for the overnight period. The shortwave feature lifts further NE later at night and clearing should begin during the pre- dawn hours, or at least towards daybreak from SW to NE. In any event, the arctic air completely presses in towards the Monday morning commute. Thus any moisture on surfaces and roadways will freeze solid as temperatures plummet mainly into the teens and lower 20s and wind chills likely getting into the single digits to around 10 above.

If that happen, it means 8am and later sunrises in winter