bluewave

Looks like the December under 4” La Niña snowfall pattern is working out again at spots like Newark. The only year in the last 30 years that missed was 16-17. It’s been a pretty reliable early indicator back to the 1990s on whether it would be a below or above average snowfall season. La Niña snowfall and storm tracks usually get established early in the season. But this isn’t the case for El Niños. Newark December La Niña snowfall and seasonal totals 24-25….3.5”…..13.4” so far 22-23….0.1”…….2.7” 21-22…..0.1”……17.9” 20-21….11.9”…..45.7” 17-18…..7.7”…….39.7” 16-17…..3.4”……30.0” 11-12…..0.0……..8.8” 10-11…..24.5”….68.2” 08-09….8.3”…..27.0” 07-08…..3.9”…..14.6” 05-06…..11.0”…..37.9” 00-01……14.9”….39.3” 99-00……T………18.4” 98-99…..1.2”…….12.8” 95-96…12.8”……78.7”

The snow piles from the Long Beach dept of sanitation road crews were like mountains that winter in the empty block next to the boardwalk that used to be the old amusement park.

I had around .25 of ice with the freezing rain on 2-2-11 back in Long Beach. Before that picked up around .3 to .4 of ZR on 2-14-07. That was one of the more unusual events I ever saw in Long Beach. The freezing rain was mostly along and south of Sunrise Highway. So the first ice storm mostly limited to the immediate South Shore. Then 1994 was in a class by itself with over .75 to 1.00 of ice. The Jan 1978 event was just as bad especially from around Merrick Road and north and not too bad in Long Beach.

We have really been lucky closer to the coast that we haven’t had a significant ice storm since 2011 and 2007. Our last major ice storms were in 1994 and 1978. One of the biggest since then was a dangerous glaze one early morning on Long Island with some freezing drizzle that wasn’t really forecast by the models. I don’t remember the exact date but I think it was a Sunday Morning.

Yeah, I have noticed that these warm fronts can slow their northward progress to the north of NYC when there is snowcover on the ground. It’s usually models like the HRRR that do best once we get within the shorter term range. Maybe someday they will boost the Euro to 4km or lower and make it more competitive.

Anything within a few degrees is pretty close in my book since I don’t expect perfection from these models. The general rule of thumb is that warm fronts usually have no problem making it through CNJ. Then they usually hang up somewhere between I-78 and I-80. Long Island usually makes it above 50° but sometimes Central Park can hover in the mid 40s. Usually have to get far enough north closer to your area in order to struggle to get above freezing.

Par for the course with these set ups as the northern boundary fights to hang on. Looks like mid 40s for the Bronx and 50s on Long Island with the 60s in Central NJ. JFK is already up to 39°.

The Bronx mesonet is 33° and the HRRR forecast was 34°. So very close. Need to use the higher resolution guidance in situations like this.

The HRRR that I posted is spot on for the current temps. So the forecast looks good. It usually dose best in these set ups.

Even the Bronx will make it into the 40s later.Then the salt crews will probably be out in force for areas with residual standing water later. This has been the story all winter.

I am already above freezing here on the CT Shoreline with just plain rain. So this shows how hard it is these days to get a legit ice storm near the coast. We haven’t had one here since 2011, 2007, and especially 1994.

Impressive blowout tides for the back bays in spots like Barnegat Bay with the very strong offshore flow.

Very 2021 February temperature departure pattern coming up with the strongest cold staying to our west this week.

When there is a very fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet we often don’t get enough spacing between shortwaves so the one behind acts as the kicker and the Southeast Ridge doesn’t amplify enough. Then when we do get enough spacing between storms like today and heights rise enough over the Rockies, we get a sub 970 cutter and overamped Southeast Ridge today into tomorrow. The in between systems that have hugged the coast pumped the Southeast Ridge just enough to mix and change to rain but not enough to cut. So the dynamic between the fast Pacific Jet and warmer waters off the East Coast has been favoring cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream systems. It’s no coincidence that the last true BM 10”+ event in NYC was in 20-21 and on Long Island In 22. So it shows how little margin of error we have to work with in order to get a perfect benchmark track in this regime. Hopefully, we can eventually get one storm that can defy the odds.

The kicker trough out West was a little stronger this run so everything shifted east from 0z. Need to weaken that feature in future runs for a stronger Rockies Ridge and Southeast Ridge. But the Pacific has been acting as the spoiler in recent years. So it will be something to watch over the next few days. New run Old run

It’s been a mixed story this winter. On one hand we had the extreme Southeast Ridge suppression back in January. But this month so far with all the events except the one that produced the significant snow near DC the gradient has been shifting further north. This weekend the AIFS forecast originally had the low sliding to our south but it turned into a big cutter. The other common denominator has been that the models have been underestimating the strength of the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So we have been getting the consistent cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. This is going to be the first test case for an East Coast low this winter so far. So we don’t have much of a sample size of events to draw on for individual model performance. You can look at the upper low on the GFS coming into the West acting as a kicker low. But this feature is weaker on the CMC and Euro. That piece of energy could be a big key to the forecast. I am not sure it’s currently getting sampled very well since it still back over the Pacific. We could probably use a special NOAA flight this weekend since the Pacific has been consistently acting as the spoiler for us. I would really like to see this pattern relax at least once this winter to finally allow something approximating a benchmark track to return after being absent for years.

With a little luck the stronger Rockies Ridge, Southeast Ridge, and sharper trough on the Euro and Canadian verifies so this can get pulled in closer to the coast by the bowling ball upper low.

While there are some differences in the sensible weather so far, this La Niña February is more along the lines of the February 2021 La Niña. That one featured a record Arctic outbreak down the Plains. But this one won’t be quite as intense. There was also a -5 -AO block that month. Plus we are on track for February being our snowiest month of the winter.

The changes in the wavelengths has made the correlation less over time.

This is why I am mostly focused on the magnitude of the 500 mb height anomalies. While the raw indices can be informative, the actual 500 mb anomalies tell a more complete story. Since you can view them and see how they combine with the height anomalies in other regions rather than in isolation. But when the raw indices like the AO get down into the -4 or -5 and lower range, they are often accompanied by corresponding 500 mb anomalies in the +400 to +500 meter range like we are currently seeing. But sometimes the orientation of the wavelengths can lead to the PNA raw index not lining up exactly with the 500mb look. These more variable and amplified wavelengths are probably why the AO and NAO have fallen out of sync in recent years. This weekend is a great example of the -NAO not matching the -AO magnitude. In the old days the blocking wouldn’t have been as squeezed into the AO sector and we would have saw a stronger -NAO also.

JFK would have had close to 23” like Malverne did in the December 1947 blizzard. Data for December 26, 1947 through December 27, 1947 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 32.0 NY WARWICK COOP 31.0 NJ RUTHERFORD COOP 29.6 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 29.0 NJ GREENWOOD LAKE COOP 28.8 NY BABYLON COOP 28.5 NY SCARSDALE COOP 28.2 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 28.1 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 28.0 NJ RIDGEFIELD COOP 27.0 NY EASTCHESTER COOP 27.0 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 26.4 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 26.2 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 26.0 NJ WESTFIELD COOP 26.0 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 26.0 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 26.0 NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 26.0 CT GREENWICH COOP 26.0 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 25.8 NY PLEASANTVILLE COOP 25.5 NY OSSINING SING SING COOP 25.0 NY CARMEL COOP 25.0 NY WEST POINT COOP 24.8 NJ PATERSON COOP 24.0 NY MINEOLA COOP 24.0 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 23.0 NY HEMPSTEAD MALVERNE COOP 23.0 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 22.8 CT DANBURY COOP 21.5 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 21.0 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS COOP 20.5 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 20.0 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 19.0 CT BRIDGEPORT COOP 19.0 CT COLCHESTER 2 W COOP 18.0 CT NORWALK COOP 16.0 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 15.0 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 15.0 CT WATERBURY CITY HALL COOP 15.0

It would reinforce the point I have been making that we need BM KU snowstorms to reach average to above average seasonal snowfall near the coast since the 1990s.

The warmest SSTs on record for February in the Gulf can work to our advantage with set up. Stronger convection and cyclogenesis early on can help to boost the 500 mb heights along the East Coast. Leading to a closer storm track to the benchmark.

This is one time when a stronger transient Southeast Ridge can work to our advantage and help to lessen the influence of the faster Pacific Jet and shortwave coming into the West Coast. It’s definitely a fragile set up where small changes can cause a shift. But at least at this early stage represents the best chance this winter for a heavier snowfall event. New run slightly stronger transient Southeast Ridge and closer EPS mean to the coast Old run a little weaker with more suppressed storm track

In the colder era with colder SSTs too the east an amplifying system would not cause the Southeast Ridge to flex. Those were the composites I posted earlier in this thread. Probably a warm water feedback process becoming more common. This is why strong -PNAs in the old days used to have a Southeast Trough more often and not a Southeast Ridge.