bluewave

The coolest temperatures should remain to our west as the WAR continues to flex with the warm SSTs to our east.

Stronger Western Atlantic Ridge during the first 10 days of October than the models forecast. So the forecast for a cooler than normal start verified as +1 to +3 across the region. We have seen this model forecast bias frequently in recent years with the record SST warmth to our east. EWR...+1.1 NYC...+1.4 LGA....+2.2 JFK....+1.6 BDR...+2.9 ISP.....+2.0

Close to 80° now in areas to our north with sun. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KBDL

Looks like we will continue to see the coolest temperatures relative to the averages remaining to our west. Ridging is holding in place near the West Coast and just to the east of New England. Matches the areas of the warmest SST departures. Oct 1-7 EPS forecast more of the same Current SST departures

Seems like the Western Atlantic Ridge often finds a way to beat guidance with such warm SSTs off the coast.

I wonder if a specific cause can be found for the record -NAO /-AO from June 2009 through January 2011?Somebody should do a research study on that. You know something unusual was underway when it started with such cool weather for June and July. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jul 31 Missing Count 1 1881-07-31 69.4 0 2 1903-07-31 70.0 0 3 2009-07-31 70.1 0 4 1902-07-31 70.3 0 5 1914-07-31 70.5 0

2-8/9-13 came close for ISP on the LE and it got the 2 consecutive days of 10”+. 2013-02-08 36 25 30.5 -1.2 34 0 2.21 16.7 0 2013-02-09 29 20 24.5 -7.3 40 0 0.74 11.1 25

2-25/26-10 came the closest. NYC got the 2 consecutive LE days over 1.00” but missed the 10” of snow on the 1st day by .6. 2010-02-25 38 27 32.5 -4.7 32 0 2.00 9.4 0 2010-02-26 33 26 29.5 -7.9 35 0 1.17 11.5 14

11-16-89 still stands as our strongest November severe thunderstorm outbreak. https://www.nj.com/weather/2019/11/this-is-what-nj-looked-like-when-7-tornadoes-hit-in-1989-it-sounded-like-incoming-artillery.html

Updated for another unusually strong October Northeast severe thunderstorm outbreak producing the highest October wind gust on record in Albany. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 312 AM EDT THU OCT 08 2020 ...HIGHEST WIND GUST SET AT ALBANY NEW YORK YESTERDAY... A HIGHEST OR PEAK WIND GUST OF 67 MPH FROM THE WEST OCCURRED YESTERDAY...WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 7...2020...AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 54 MPH SET IN 2009. THIS IS ALSO THE HIGHEST WIND GUST FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER ON RECORD. WIND GUST RECORDS AT ALBANY GO BACK TO 1987.

It will be interesting to see if Delta slows down enough for both Monday and Tuesday to record at least an inch of rain in NYC. Most of our events in recent years had the heaviest precipitation focused into just 1 day. The last 2 consecutive NYC days with 1.00” plus of precipitation was 1-23/24-17. Getting 2 consecutive days of 2.00”+ has been even tougher. The last time for NYC was with Irene on 8-27/28-11. Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= 1.00 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 2017-01-01 to 2020-10-07 1 2 2017-01-24 2 1 2020-09-30 - 1 2020-09-10 - 1 2020-08-12 - 1 2020-07-22 - 1 2020-07-10 - 1 2020-04-13 - 1 2020-03-23 - 1 2019-12-14 - 1 2019-12-09 Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation >= 2.00 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 2011-01-01 to 2020-10-07 1 2 2011-08-28 2 1 2020-07-10 - 1 2018-08-11 - 1 2018-07-17 - 1 2018-04-16 - 1 2017-10-29 - 1 2017-05-05 - 1 2016-11-29 - 1 2016-01-23 - 1 2015-01-18

Scaling up fast enough and meeting expanding global energy demand is quite a challenge. https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/12/24/72/our-pathetically-slow-shift-to-clean-energy-in-five-charts/ By most measures that matter, clean energy had a stellar decade. The cost of large wind and solar farms dropped by 70% and nearly 90%, respectively. Meanwhile, renewable-power plants around the world are producing four times more electricity than they did 10 years ago. Similarly, electric vehicles were barely a blip at the outset of the 2010s. But automakers were on track to sell 1.8 million EVs this year, as range increased, prices fell, and companies introduced a variety of models. But the swift growth in these small sectors still hasn’t added up to major changes in the massive global energy system, or reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions. So far, cleaner technologies have mostly met rising energy demands, not cut deeply into existing fossil-fuel infrastructure, as the charts that follow make clear. That’s a problem. Cutting emissions rapidly enough to combat the increasing threats of climate change will require complete overhauls of our power plants, factories, and vehicle fleets, all within a few decades.

The 12z Euro has a good soaking now that it came east with Delta.

It will be interesting to see if sites like Tropical Tidbits and Pivitol Weather add the extra maps. While the ECMWF has a ton of data now available on the site, the other sites have have a more intuitive interface and better looking maps.

We'll see if the Euro is going too far west with Delta like it did with Laura. It would be nice to see what the new 9km ensembles show.

Longer range, models have been struggling with the Pacific Jet. This has resulted in fast wavelength changes over PNA and EPO regions. So a continuation of the up and down temperature pattern for us. Also notice how the PDO is really getting pushed around by these quick changes. New run Old run

Main La Niña theme since 2000 has been a dominant SE Ridge. The years with over 20” in NYC had Alaska and Greenland blocking episodes mixed with the SE Ridge. 16-17 was a great example of a few well timed blocks in a warm SE Ridge pattern producing respectable seasonal snowfall totals.

Areas that saw an early freeze in late September will probably have to wait a while for their next freeze. Frost/Freeze Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1963 05-24 (1963) 27 09-15 (1963) 32 113 1964 05-03 (1964) 31 09-16 (1964) 30 135 1984 05-18 (1984) 32 09-16 (1984) 32 120 1986 05-10 (1986) 30 09-17 (1986) 30 129 1956 05-25 (1956) 27 09-21 (1956) 32 118 1962 05-12 (1962) 32 09-21 (1962) 30 131 2020 05-14 (2020) 31 09-21 (2020) 31 129

I noticed that the vendors calculate the teleconnections indices in a slightly different manner than the CPC. But it looks like the the EPO and WPO forecasts will only be available from the vendors going forward. We can still use the 500mb height anomalies to get an idea of the EPO and WPO values.

Tough to bet against the SE Ridge in recent years.

I just saw this... Note: As of 23 September 2020, the Global Ensemble Forecast System has been upgraded to a much improved version 12, and this page is now obsolete. New reforecasts are available via Amazon Web Services for free download, at https://noaa-gefs-retrospective.s3.amazonaws.com/index.html, and you are directed there for data access. It is straightforward to set up scripts to loop over days and members and download sequences of global fields using wget or curl. The experimental forecast product pages that we have developed based on the previous model version and reforecasts will not be updated; we have not received any resources for updating them, regrettably. If you have questions or comments about this dataset or the associated products, please contact: [email protected] Note: Updated daily forecasts of teleconnection indices produced at NCEP's Climate Prediction Center can be found here.

Winter 20-21 discussion for NYC Metro.

Looks like the all or nothing rainfall pattern since September 10th will continue. 3”+ deluges on September 10th and 30th with a dry pattern in the middle. So it may be a while before our next big rainfall event.