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bluewave

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Everything posted by bluewave

  1. bluewave
    The parallel GFS is actually closer to the Euro. But it’s not quite as amped yet.
  2. bluewave
    It’s a variation on the same theme. Last December 2nd had the low track just south of Long Island also. But there was more cold available to start last December than this year near the coast. It’s interesting that we are seeing a similar track almost a year to the day.
  3. bluewave
    Thanks. Updated for November 2020. 11....2020...EWR....4...NYC...1....LGA....1...JFK...4...BDR...5....ISP....4
  4. bluewave
    Even the EPS drops the cold into Montana in about 8-10 days. But the GEPS and GEFS dig a little more into the Rockies. Montana and surrounding areas have really been the focus of what little cold departures there have been in recent years.
  5. bluewave
    First 60° temperature on record today in Caribou during meteorological winter.
  6. bluewave
    These differences in handling the short term storm details really magnifies the ensemble spread by day 10. That’s why I want to see how each individual storm verifies before looking past day 8-10. The EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all have varying solutions day 8-10.
  7. bluewave
    The 12z Euro finally ejects enough energy from the SW for a more phased coastal rain and wind event on the 5th. 12z today 12z yesterday
  8. bluewave
    Updated for November 2020. 11....2020...EWR....4...NYC...1....LGA....1...JFK...4...BDR...5....ISP....4
  9. bluewave
    I was pointing out back in the October and early November threads how the atmosphere wasn’t showing the canonical La Niña patterns. We have been experiencing these more Niño-like +AAM spikes since the fall. So I mentioned that we may not follow a typical La Niña November. This is much like the last few years with mismatched Niño and Niño-like influences at the same time. This is due to all the competing record equatorial and off equatorial SST warmth from the Indian Ocean into the Pacific.
  10. bluewave
    Those long range strat forecasts for change are very uncertain given how strong the PV has been.
  11. bluewave
    The OP GFS longer range has had less of a cold bias than the ensembles over SE Canada. Sometimes, the lower resolution ensembles smooth out the ridge near the near the Northeast too much. Where the OP runs don’t.
  12. bluewave
    The Euro is really struggling with the split flow. Notice how much different the GFS and CMC are at day 10. Remember, the errors at day 7-10 often build into the day 11-15.
  13. bluewave
    Longer range, we need to watch for the ridge east of New England verifying stronger than forecast. This has been the pattern for a while now. Today is just the most recent case. 7 day Forecast Verification
  14. bluewave
    The 7-8th will depend on the evolution of the storm threat for the 5th. If the storm on the 5th is more amped, then the 7-8th could get suppressed like the CMC shows. Have to see which model gets the evolution on the 5th correct. The Euro may be struggling with hanging too much energy back to the SW again on the 4-5th.
  15. bluewave
    Plenty of spread between the model guidance at 12z. UKMET and CMC are west while GFS and Euro east. Euro may be struggling with holding back too much energy to the SW again.
  16. bluewave
    It has been an ongoing issue for the GEFS. I can’t wait until machine learning brings us bias corrected model guidance maps. Maybe someday we can look at day 11-15 bias corrected maps which will take long range forecasting to the next level. But that will probably require quite a bit more computer power.
  17. bluewave
    The first week of December will start out milder in the Northeast than some of the guidance was indicating a week ago. New run Old run
  18. bluewave
    2016 to 2018 featured great snowstorms that melted a few days later in many cases. 2014 to 2015 had long lasting snow cover but the storms weren’t as impressive in my area as 2016 to 2018. 2010-2011 was the rarest of them all with great snowstorms and long lasting snow cover. I can still remember the snow mountains from the road crews piled high near the LB Boardwalk into the spring.
  19. bluewave
    I don’t really mind if the snow melts a few days later. Our snowy 15-16, 16-17, and 17-18 winters featured big warm ups following most snowstorms. Kind of like spring in the Rockies. But it isn’t the greatest if you run a ski resort and have to put up with the sloppy conditions.
  20. bluewave
    The cutter and hugger storm tracks can really produce for the areas around the Great Lakes. But all the warmth gets tired during the summer when people go north to cool off. Last several summers you had to go up into Canada to escape the heat.
  21. bluewave
    You usually have to be north of I-80 to cash in on gradient snowfall patterns. EWR to ISP finished last December in the 2-4” range. The one exception was the cold 93-94 gradient. But even that one hit diminishing returns the closer you got to Philly.
  22. bluewave
    3-21-18 was my last 10” event. It was also my 2nd favorite late season snowstorm behind 4-6-82. https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm03212018
  23. bluewave
    The duration of multiyear below normal snowfall regimes can be uncertain. But it usually takes a 10.0”+ event to get the ball rolling back in the right direction. Great pattern breaking snowstorms like 1-20-78, 3-13-93, and 12-30-00 come to mind.
  24. bluewave
    This month the very strong IO MJO combined with a near record polar vortex for November record warmth. So it really enhanced the upper ridge over the area. The closest MJO composite match for November was a phase 3. You can see the dominant VP anomalies focused near that part of the IO.
  25. bluewave
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