bluewave

Looks like 60s and 70s until further notice as the WAR pattern really locks in. KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 11/03/2020 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 TUE 03| WED 04| THU 05| FRI 06| SAT 07| SUN 08| MON 09| TUE 10 CLIMO X/N 54| 38 61| 48 69| 52 70| 54 72| 55 72| 58 73| 56 68 40 56 KISP GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 11/03/2020 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 TUE 03| WED 04| THU 05| FRI 06| SAT 07| SUN 08| MON 09| TUE 10 CLIMO X/N 52| 33 59| 47 65| 52 70| 51 68| 51 69| 53 70| 56 68 38 56

We could challenge the all-time November 500 MB positive height anomaly record this weekend. It looks like the record for the NYC area is 589 DM. The models all have values close to that level.

We broke the March cold streak this year so I guess it was only a matter of time before we had a warmer than normal November. These have been the only reliably cooler than average months in recent years. Getting more than 3 consecutive colder Novembers and Marches is just too much to ask from this warmer climate. NYC Nov 17...-1.1 Nov 18...-3.3 Nov 19...-3.8 Mar 17...-3.3 Mar 18...-2.4 Mar 19...-0.8 Mar 20...+5.5

The EPS weeklies are warmer than normal until further notice as the WAR pattern really locks in.

Gusting into the 40s along the coast. Jones Beach N/A 43 N/A N/A W30G43 N/A Wantagh N/A 41 28 60 W22G43 N/A Hempstead NOT AVBL Matinecock Pt N/A 43 N/A N/A NW33G46 N/A

Looks to be a very slow mover with such a strong blocking ridge to the north.

The coming warm up will get a boost from one of the most impressive WAR patterns we have seen during the month of November. The strongest ridge that I could find in the OKX soundings for November was 589 DM. The ensemble forecasts have the potential for a 588 DM+ ridge by the weekend.

New record lowest October average extent. There have been 10 new monthly lowest average extent records set since 2016. The only remaining monthly records are August and September 2012.

The last 3 Novembers in NYC were colder than average. But this year is starting out differently. The previous 3 years began the month warm and shifted colder by the 2nd week of the month. This year the coldest days for a while will be on the 2nd 3rd with a rebound back to the mild 60s. So it will be interesting to see if this means that we will finally see a milder than normal November. Nov....EWR...NYC...LGA 2019...-4.0....-3.8.....-3.7 2018...-3.1....-3.3....-2.7 2017...-.0.7....-1.1....-0.3 KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 11/01/2020 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 SUN 01| MON 02| TUE 03| WED 04| THU 05| FRI 06| SAT 07| SUN 08 CLIMO X/N 56| 36 45| 39 51| 39 57| 51 67| 55 68| 56 68| 59 66 42 56

While the record cold around the Rockies and Plains has been impressive, it’s focused over a very small geographic region of the planet. The coverage of the record cold is much smaller than the areas and magnitude of record warmth as the world warms. It’s no coincidence that the record October cold near Montana is occurring in an isolated pocket relative to the overall extent of the global temperature increases. Montana represents a portion of the only 17 out of 2,844 stations with under 6 months of warming over the last 30 years.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq/#area_extent What is the difference between sea ice area and extent? Area and extent are different measures and give scientists slightly different information. Some organizations, including Cryosphere Today, report ice area; NSIDC primarily reports ice extent. Extent is always a larger number than area, and there are pros and cons associated with each method. A simplified way to think of extent versus area is to imagine a slice of swiss cheese. Extent would be a measure of the edges of the slice of cheese and all of the space inside it. Area would be the measure of where there is cheese only, not including the holes. That is why if you compare extent and area in the same time period, extent is always bigger. A more precise explanation of extent versus area gets more complicated. Extent defines a region as “ice-covered” or “not ice-covered.” For each satellite data cell, the cell is said to either have ice or to have no ice, based on a threshold. The most common threshold (and the one NSIDC uses) is 15 percent, meaning that if the data cell has greater than 15 percent ice concentration, the cell is considered ice covered; less than that and it is said to be ice free. Example: Let’s say you have three 25 kilometer (km) x 25 km (16 miles x 16 miles) grid cells covered by 16% ice, 2% ice, and 90% ice. Two of the three cells would be considered “ice covered,” or 100% ice. Multiply the grid cell area by 100% sea ice and you would get a total extent of 1,250 square km (482 square miles). Area takes the percentages of sea ice within data cells and adds them up to report how much of the Arctic is covered by ice; area typically uses a threshold of 15%. So in the same example, with three 25 km x 25 km (16 miles x 16 miles) grid cells of 16% ice, 2% ice, and 90% ice, multiply the grid cell areas that are over the 15% threshold by the percent of sea ice in those grid cells, and add it up. You would have a total area of 662 square km (255.8 square miles). Scientists at NSIDC report extent because they are cautious about summertime values of ice concentration and area taken from satellite sensors. To the sensor, surface melt appears to be open water rather than water on top of sea ice. So, while reliable for measuring area most of the year, the microwave sensor is prone to underestimating the actual ice concentration and area when the surface is melting. To account for that potential inaccuracy, NSIDC scientists rely primarily on extent when analyzing melt-season conditions and reporting them to the public. That said, analyzing ice area is still quite valuable. Given the right circumstances, background knowledge, and scientific information on current conditions, it can provide an excellent sense of how much ice there really is “on the ground

The last few days set the new all-time extent anomaly record.

All the extra ocean heat on the Siberian side is really slowing the freeze-up this October. So the the extent is currently the lowest on record for this time of year well below 2012. The Siberian heatwave this year was one of the most extreme events we have seen.

Yeah, we are well below where 2012 was at this point in October. The the heat on the Siberian Arctic side this year was off the charts. 5.422 7.329 6.871 6.596 5.715 6.515 5.681 5.234 5.108

Very unusual to see a daily area drop in mid October as the record Arctic warmth is slowing the freeze-up https://cryospherecomputing.tk

The record SST warmth form the Siberian heatwave is slowing down the freeze- up in those regions. https://theconversation.com/arctic-sea-ice-is-being-increasingly-melted-from-below-by-warming-atlantic-water-144106 All this may be feeding into ever more extreme climate change in the Arctic. Throughout summer 2020 the Siberian heatwavecontinually shattered temperature records, including eastern Arctic sea surface temperatures. And while sea ice reflects much of the sun’s rays back into space, open water is dark and absorbs the sun’s heat. So as the sea ice retreated the surface water is warmed, which in turned further warms the atmosphere above, quite apart from the influence of increasing greenhouse gases. There is still much more to learn about the link between the eastwards spread of the influence of Atlantic heat, and the reduction in sea ice it brings, and knock on effects on severe weather at lower latitudes. But it is clear that the Arctic – already warming faster than anywhere else on Earth – could be in the process of transitioning to a “new” state.

11-16-89 still stands as our strongest November severe thunderstorm outbreak. https://www.nj.com/weather/2019/11/this-is-what-nj-looked-like-when-7-tornadoes-hit-in-1989-it-sounded-like-incoming-artillery.html

Updated for another unusually strong October Northeast severe thunderstorm outbreak producing the highest October wind gust on record in Albany. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 312 AM EDT THU OCT 08 2020 ...HIGHEST WIND GUST SET AT ALBANY NEW YORK YESTERDAY... A HIGHEST OR PEAK WIND GUST OF 67 MPH FROM THE WEST OCCURRED YESTERDAY...WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 7...2020...AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN THE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BROKE THE OLD RECORD FOR THE DATE OF 54 MPH SET IN 2009. THIS IS ALSO THE HIGHEST WIND GUST FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER ON RECORD. WIND GUST RECORDS AT ALBANY GO BACK TO 1987.

Scaling up fast enough and meeting expanding global energy demand is quite a challenge. https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/12/24/72/our-pathetically-slow-shift-to-clean-energy-in-five-charts/ By most measures that matter, clean energy had a stellar decade. The cost of large wind and solar farms dropped by 70% and nearly 90%, respectively. Meanwhile, renewable-power plants around the world are producing four times more electricity than they did 10 years ago. Similarly, electric vehicles were barely a blip at the outset of the 2010s. But automakers were on track to sell 1.8 million EVs this year, as range increased, prices fell, and companies introduced a variety of models. But the swift growth in these small sectors still hasn’t added up to major changes in the massive global energy system, or reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions. So far, cleaner technologies have mostly met rising energy demands, not cut deeply into existing fossil-fuel infrastructure, as the charts that follow make clear. That’s a problem. Cutting emissions rapidly enough to combat the increasing threats of climate change will require complete overhauls of our power plants, factories, and vehicle fleets, all within a few decades.

It will be interesting to see if sites like Tropical Tidbits and Pivitol Weather add the extra maps. While the ECMWF has a ton of data now available on the site, the other sites have have a more intuitive interface and better looking maps.