bluewave

Updated for the areas of Fairfield County that picked up over 3.00" with the storms yesterday. ...Fairfield County... 2 NE Fairfield 3.95 703 AM 10/03 CoCoRaHS 2 ENE Fairfield 3.82 815 AM 10/03 CWOP 5 SE Bedford 3.82 700 AM 10/03 CoCoRaHS Stamford 3.75 600 AM 10/03 Trained Spotter Darien 3.65 653 AM 10/03 Social Media 2 NW Darien 3.65 700 AM 10/03 CoCoRaHS 3 NNW Norwalk 3.57 700 AM 10/03 CoCoRaHS 4 NNW New Canaan 3.54 630 AM 10/03 CoCoRaHS 2 S New Canaan 3.35 615 AM 10/03 CoCoRaHS 1 WNW Westport 3.30 815 AM 10/03 CWOP

The continuing record warmth is allowing the 2018 extent to edge closer to October 2007 and 2012.

Updated for September 2018. 9..2018....EWR...7....LGA...6...JFK.....8....BDR..6...ISP.....3

Very close to record warm temperatures around the North Pole for the end of September. http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/

This was the latest minimum so far on record tied with 1997. But the extent was much higher that year. The CPC issued an historic forecast for the the NW Alaska region due to the record warmth there. https://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/arctic-sea-ice-2018-minimum-extent Arctic sea ice has likely reached its minimum extent for the year, at 4.59 million square kilometers (1.77 million square miles) on September 19 and 23, according to scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado Boulder. The 2018 minimum ties with 2008 and 2010 as the sixth lowest in the nearly 40-year satellite record. September 23 is the latest day in the year the Arctic sea minimum has occurred in the satellite record—observed this year and in 1997. https://www.arctictoday.com/open-warm-waters-off-arctic-alaska-spark-bold-forecast-warm-october/ The lack of sea ice off Alaska and the persistence of warm temperatures in the open waters there have set up an unusual weather situation — a near-certain forecast of significantly higher-than-normal temperatures for northwestern Alaska. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts and 85 percent chance that northwestern Alaska will have temperatures significantly warmer than normal in October. That is the “first time in recorded history” that the Climate Prediction Center has issued a probability above 80 percent, said Rick Thoman, climate science and services manager for the National Weather Service in Alaska. “That is a really bold forecast, but all the pieces are in place,” he said at his monthly Alaska climate outlook briefing, held on Friday. Sea-surface temperatures “are about as warm as they’ve ever been” in that region, hitting levels up to 4 degrees Celsius above normal in the northern Bering Sea and southern Chukchi Sea. For fall and early winter, all of Alaska is expected to have weather that is both significantly warmer and significantly wetter than normal, according to the Climate Prediction Center forecast. The wetter-than-normal conditions are part of a clear pattern in place since at least 2003 that is linked to sea-ice retreat, Thoman said. The Climate Prediction Center’s forecast for a wetter-than normal early winter is influenced by an expected El Nino weather pattern in the North Pacific Ocean. Thoman, a climate-science fixture in Alaska, is retiring from the National Weather Service this month and moving to the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy, a NOAA-funded program headquartered at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.

This delayed freeze-up continues to be very impressive. The record ridging and warmth dropped the extent to the 3rd lowest on record behind 2012 and 2007 for 9-26.

Looks like a new positive 500 mb height record for this time of year over that region.

Updated for some of the highest amounts across the area on 9-25-18. 9-2-18...Hamden, CT....8.51...Trumbull, CT....7.32...White Plains, NY....4.41...Totowa, NJ....7.44....Bayonne, NJ...4.77...Setauket, NY...4.53.

One of the latest Arctic sea ice minimum extents on record. As of 9-23, the NSIDC extent is still holding at 4.594 million sq km. Record warm SST's for this time of year over the Chukchi Sea.

In a decade defined by extremes, October since 2010 really stands out. 2020 Rare October Ice Storm in Oklahoma New October monthly record snowfall in Great Falls Montana and Minneapolis, MN New October record for the strongest wind gust at Albany with another unusually strong late season Northeast severe thunderstorm event https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202010080712-KALY-SXUS71-RERALB 2019 New October Record Low Pressures in New England https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/17/powerful-weather-bomb-socks-new-england-with-wind-gusts-mph-knocking-out-power-more-than-half-million/ Record Early Season Snows For Upper Rockies And Plains https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2019-10-14-record-snowiest-start-season-october-northern-rockies-plains 2018 https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/hurricane-michael-upgraded-to-category-5-at-time-of-us-landfall Hurricane Michael Was the Third Most Intense Continental U.S. Landfall on Record, an Unprecedented Location for a Category 5 Landfall https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-10-hurricane-michael-cat4-landfall-unprecedented-location Pennsylvania Just Had Its Record October Tornado Outbreak, And It Was Its Most Tornadic Day in Over 20 Years https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2018-10-04-pennsylvania-record-october-tornado-outbreak 2017 Northeast Storm Undergoes Bombogenesis, Bringing 70+ MPH Gusts, Almost 350 Reports of Wind Damage, Flooding https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2017-10-30-northeast-storm-damaging-winds-flooding 2016 Hurricane Matthew Shatters Records https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-matthew-records-notables-2016 https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-matthew-bahamas-florida-georgia-carolinas 2015 The Historic South Carolina Floods of October 1–5, 2015 https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/SCFlooding_072216_Signed_Final.pdf 2014 Early Snow on the Great Smokies https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/84658/early-snow-on-the-great-smokies 2013 October 3-5, 2013 Historic Blizzard https://www.weather.gov/unr/2013-10-03_05 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tornadoes/201310 2012 On the Impact Angle of Hurricane Sandy’s New Jersey Landfall https://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~sobel/Papers/Hall_Sobel_GRL_resubmitted_revised.pdf 2011 Rare October snowstorm hammers Northeast U.S. https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/rare-october-snowstorm-hammers-northeast-us.html 2010 The Historic Storm of 24-26 October 2010 http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/severe/2010/25Oct2010.pdf

Yeah, the 2017 Arctic Report Card showed how the loss of multiyear ice created a new normal over the last decade.

This would probably have been a minimum closer to 7 million sq km in a pre 2007 Arctic world. Zack Labe posted a great chart on how low the pressures were over the Arctic the last two summers. Lowest pressures since the 1990's. But extents well below those levels. Another summer of predominately cyclonic (low pressure) conditions over the#Arctic polar cap (>65°N) --> cloudy and "cool" pic.twitter.com/7LySJd5pqN 8:46 PM - 18 Sep 2018

They will probably issue the official annual minimum extent in the next few days. I used the latest daily reading from the chart below.

Getting very close to the NSIDC annual minimum extent. Most recent update was at 4.601 million sq km. A minimum in the 4 to 5 million sq km range has been typical for the new post 2007 Arctic. 4 to 5 million sq km minimums 2018 2017 2016 2015 2011 2010 2008 2007 Below 4 million sq km 2012 Slightly above 5 million sq km 2014 2013 2009

Each melt season seems to confirm that an important shift occurred around 2007. NSIDC is currently at 4.992million sq km for extent and slowly falling. Most of the seasons since 2007 had a daily low minimum extent between 4 and 5 million sq km. Only 2009, 2013, and 2014 managed to stay a little above 5 million sq km. But even those 3 highest years couldn't get back to pre 2007 ice levels near or above 6 million sq km when the Arctic was colder.

Updated for August 2018. 8...2018...EWR...5....NYC...9...LGA....2....JFK...5...BDR....2.....ISP....4

The highest 3 day total that I could find in the OKX zones was 6.60 at the NWS in Upton.

August has had the greatest number of these extreme rainfall events during the 2010's at 7 so far. 8-17-18....4.73...North Merrick 8-18-17....3.80...East Shoreham 8-20-16....3.85...Calverton 8-1-16.....5.34...New Windsor 8-13-14...13.51...Islip 8-15-11...10.20...Lido Beach 8-28-11...8.92....EWR

Were you able to record what your maximum rainfall rate was? I would be curious to know the shortest amount of time for picking up an inch of rain during the event.

Update for Beaufort and Chukchi and Beaufort: The combined Chukchi & Beaufort Seas ice extent from the @NSIDC passive microwave data has fallen rapidly in the past two weeks, and is now about at median for the 2010s. Median date for extent min is Sep14. #Arctic #akwx#seaice @Climatologist49 @ZLabe @DaveSnider @CinderBDT907pic.twitter.com/4Z5wdnl2HD 6:53 AM - 7 Aug 2018

Updated for Rjay in North Merrick with 4.73" on 8-7-18

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/08/ice-loss-speeds-up-during-second-half-of-july/ Despite finishing ninth lowest in the monthly average, ice loss was rapid during the month. As a result, by July 31 daily extent tracked fourth lowest in the satellite record, just below the extent seen last year at this time, and also just above that seen in 2007, 2011, and 2012.

Following the big reduction in multiyear ice around 2007, the best the Arctic can do during the melt season is 2009 or 2013. NSIDC September average extents above 6 million sq km were common for 1990's and early 2000's. Arctic amplification really took off when the extents regularly dropped below that level.

The dominant summer reverse dipole pattern of the last 6 years is the main thing keeping the September 2012 record out of reach. But even the more favorable summer pressure patterns for retaining sea ice can't get the Arctic back to pre-2007 ice. I continue to believe that scientists in the future will look back on 2007 as the point which the Arctic shifted to a new warmer state. Remember, we didn't need 2012 finishes to set new Arctic high temperature records since then.

Record low sea ice extent for this date on the Atlantic side. Just an amazing heatwave and ridge near Scandinavia. This follows the record Siberian heat back in June. Sea ice extent has dropped to a record low on the Atlantic side of the #Arctic. In other areas, like the Beaufort Sea, melt has been slower. Each line shows one year from 1979 [purple] to 2017 [white]. 2018 is in red. Daily data over the satellite era is from the @NSIDC. pic.twitter.com/QOqDkNlIXw 8:40 AM - 30 Jul 2018 Yesterday's 18z sounding from Sodankylä recorded 500 hPa geopotential height at 5905 m. With the lack of actual sounding climatology, I checked how that reading compares to reanalysis data: 5905 m is the highest Z500 value in the whole N-Scandinavia, in years 1979-2017. #heatwavepic.twitter.com/6i0q4F8Gvi 3:15 AM - 29 Jul 2018 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/17/scorching-scandinavia-record-breaking-heat-hits-norway-finland-and-sweden/?utm_term=.0638647fb0be An intense heat dome has swelled over Scandinavia, pushing temperatures more than 20 degrees above normal and spurring some of the region’s hottest weather ever recorded. Even as far north as the Arctic Circle, the mercury has come close to 90 degrees. http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/ the central part of Arctic Siberia saw a very large and pronounced warm anomaly, and indeed the Siberian warmth was very extreme by historical standards. At the town of Saskylakh at 72°N (nearly the same as Utqiaġvik), the June mean temperature of 60.0°F was more than 5°F above any other June, with data back to 1936, and the month was a remarkable 17.5°F above the 1981-2010 normal.