bluewave

https://mashable.com/2018/04/02/arctic-sea-ice-temperature-targets/#JiMVWHeLpgqI Walt Meier, a senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colo., said he's not surprised the studies found such a large difference between Arctic sea ice cover at 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming versus 2 degrees. "Sea ice is quite sensitive to temperature because it’s so thin. And as temperatures warm, it gets thinner. The thinner the ice, the higher the chances that summer melt will be enough to remove the ice," he said in an email. Meier was not involved in the new studies. "I think that somewhere between 1.5 degrees Celsius and 2.0 degrees, the ice cover gets thin enough over a large enough region of the Arctic for it to completely melt during summer. At the low end, 1.5 degrees, there is probably enough remaining thick ice (e.g., greater than 2 meters) that it’s less likely that all of that thicker ice could melt in a summer," Meier said. There's another issue, though, with studies like these that examine the benefits of a 1.5-degree target. Based on emissions trends and projections, such a target is illusory, since the world is on track to blow right past it. Might it make more sense to study the consequences of far more severe warming, given that that's where we're headed?

Updated for the record breaking snowstorm on November 15th. This makes November 2018 a top 1-4 snowiest on record for all our major stations. November 2018 NYC....#4...6.4 EWR...#3...6.4 LGA...#2....4.7 JFK....#1...4.8 ISP...#2....4.3

The 4 warmest January to October periods have occurred in the last 4 years. Data using @NASAGISS GISTEMP since 1880. [Graphic fromcolumbia.edu/~mhs119/Temper…] pic.twitter.com/g7WqwuVR0d 7:59 AM - 16 Nov 2018 Similarly, preliminarily analysis from @NASAGISS shows October 2018 as the 2nd warmest on record (in at least 138 years) [GISTEMP method/data available at data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/] pic.twitter.com/kpGygYCV5g 8:20 AM - 15 Nov 2018

#seaice finally forming the past few days at Utqiaġvik (Barrow). The@SNAPandACCAP Sea Ice Atlas helps us understand just how unusual in the historical context it is to be happening so late in the autumn. h/t @themadstone#akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @vennkoenig @ZLabepic.twitter.com/P79bT73pPq 8:53 PM - 15 Nov 2018

You make an excellent point about the importance of looking at annual sea ice metrics. Luckily, Zack Labe has a fantastic site that includes these types of graphs. 2016 was the lowest annual extent on record. The lowest annual volume was recorded in 2017.

You should research the sources that you get your material from. The authors you cited aren't even qualified in the field of climate science. That's why the graph is so inaccurate compared to the legitimate study in the NSIDC link that I posted.

Not even close. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/01/ Using a compilation of maps, ship reports, and other records, NOAA has published monthly estimates of Arctic sea ice extent spanning 1850 to 2013. While data in the earlier part of the record is limited, the carefully constructed time series helps to put the more recent satellite record in a longer-term context. Figure 5a shows the decline in extent over the period of satellite observations standing out prominently in comparison with the rest of the record, especially in late summer and early autumn. An earlier period of unusually low summer sea ice extent around 1937 to 1943 (as compared to the 1850 to 2013 average) did not extend to the winter season, and was followed by a few years of significantly higher-than-average summer ice extents. Early in the record (1850 to 1900), winter ice extent was not particularly elevated relative to the 1850 to 2013 average, but summer sea ice extent was quite a bit higher higher than the average. As another way to place recent conditions into a longer context using this data set, we show the years of the lowest September extent recorded within the 50-year periods 1850 to 1900, 1901 to 1950, 1951 to 2000, along with the lowest over the period 2000 to 2013 (Figure 5b). The decline in extent is apparent. https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-piecing-together-arctic-sea-ice-history-1850 Most fundamentally of all, the new dataset allows us to answer the three questions we posed at the beginning of this article. First, there is no point in the past 150 years where sea ice extent is as small as it has been in recent years. Second, the rate of sea ice retreat in recent years is also unprecedented in the historical record.

It's perfectly normal to have both up and down bounces within a long term downward trend of the Arctic sea ice. Ed Hawkins had a great post on this. Unfortunately, nothing has changed the long term downward trajectory of the sea ice. We are on track for our first technically ice free September sometime during this century. People such as yourself incorrectly take short term fluctuations and try to extrapolate them into the future. This is the reason so many people stop posting in this forum when the global temperatures set new records in the last few years. They tried to interpret a short term fluctuation in global temperatures during the last decade as some kind of deviation from the long term warming trend. My bet is posters like you will eventually abandon this thread at some point in the future when you figure out the same with the Arctic sea ice.There is still hope that you will eventually figure out what everyone else knows and stop making these uninformed posts.

It's not increasing. The long term downward trend continues. Try reading up on the topic before you make these uninformed posts. The NSIDC would be a great place for you to start. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2018/10/ Arctic sea ice extent for September 2018 averaged 4.71 million square kilometers (1.82 million square miles), tying with 2008 for the sixth lowest September in the 1979 to 2018 satellite record. This was 1.70 million square kilometers (656,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average, and 1.14 million square kilometers (440,000 square miles) above the record low recorded for September 2012. Prior to September 19, sea ice extent declined at a relatively rapid 14,440 square kilometers (5,580 square miles) per day, significantly faster than in most years. The near-zero loss rate between September 19 and 23, and the very late onset of significant seasonal ice growth after September 23, were atypical of the satellite record. Sea ice extent for September 2018 fell just above the long-term linear trend line. The linear rate of sea ice decline for September is 82,300 square kilometers (32,000 square miles) per year, or 12.8 percent per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average.

Zack Labe created a great chart showing the monthly Arctic temperature rankings. The last 3 Octobers were the warmest on record for the Arctic. Ranking of #Arctic air temperatures by month over the satellite era - now updated through October 2018 + Ranks (colors): 1=warmest (red), 40=coldest (blue) + Download/Info: sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-t…pic.twitter.com/bwxR7kGKnr 9:50 PM - 8 Nov 2018

Record low #Arctic sea ice area continues around Svalbard (since at least 1967 - @Istjenesten charts). Temperatures at Longyearbyen (~78°N latitude) have been 6.8°C above average in last 30 days. + Weather data:yr.no/place/Norway/S… … + Sea ice data: polarview.met.nopic.twitter.com/G41EuQJR3p 12:23 PM - 12 Nov 2018

October sea ice extent in the Arctic ranks third lowest in satellite record. Extent remains especially low on the Atlantic side of the Arctic in the Barents and Laptev Seas, which may relate to the "Atlantification" of the Arctic Ocean.nsidc.org/arcticseaicene… pic.twitter.com/erSCCGlBkC 9:03 AM - 6 Nov 2018 https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantification-arctic-sea-tipping-towards-new-climate-regime Rising temperatures and declining sea ice are driving a “rapid climate shift” in the Arctic’s Barents Sea, a new study says. The research, published in Nature Climate Change, finds that warming conditions and decreasing sea ice volume “may soon” see the Barents Sea complete a transition from cold, fresh Arctic waters to a warm, salty Atlantic regime. If current trends continue, the transition could occur “around 2040”, the lead author tells Carbon Brief. This would have “unknown consequences” for the wider ecosystem and commercial fishing, the study warns.

2018 was the 2nd warmest October on record for the Arctic behind 2016.

Updated for November 11-2/3. ...Orange County... Monroe 4.96 800 AM 11/03 Trained Spotter ...Passaic County... 1 NE Wanaque 4.36 804 AM 11/03 AWS ...Westchester County... Shrub Oak 3.10 630 AM 11/03 Co-Op Observer

Our quarterly @CarbonBrief State of the Climate report is now out! So far 2018 has featured record-high ocean heat content, sea level, and greenhouse gas concentrations. Surface temperatures are on track to be the 4th warmest after 2016, 2017 and 2015. carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…pic.twitter.com/vLzGeBH5bl 8:09 AM - 23 Oct 2018

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/alaska-sees-usually-warm-weather-during-fall/ Alaska lawns still green with unusually warm fall weather Originally published October 22, 2018 at 10:12 pm Updated October 23, 2018 at 8:07 am ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) — Alaska’s early fall has been unusually warm as a massive high-pressure system camped out around the state. The warmer weather has allowed lawns to stay green in Anchorage and for farmers to continue harvesting crops in Palmer during a month when the state typically begins to freeze, the Anchorage Daily News reported Sunday. The lack of typical snow and subfreezing temperatures is unsettling to some. The village of Savoonga on St. Lawrence Island had no ice, weeks into October. “It’s not freezing up,” said Delbert Pungowiyi, Savoonga tribal president. “Normally, we’d be able to cross the rivers and lakes.” Climatologist Rick Thoman said most of the state is “running way above normal” this month. Sea-surface temperatures in Chukchi and Bering seas are also “exceptionally warm,” he said. Utqiagvik was 9 degrees above normal for the first half of the month, and Nome was 13 degrees above normal. Anchorage is setting record high temperatures and has passed the previous record for latest freeze of the year. The Fairbanks area had less than an inch of snow last week, marking the latest snowfall on record, according to the National Weather Service. Fairbanks usually gets about 10 inches (25 centimeters) of snow in October. UPDATE: Stations with a colder low temperature than Anchorage, Alaska, through October 19th (≤37°F). Since Sept 1, Anchorage has set 14 daily high temp records and 10 warm low temp records. #MakeItStop @AlaskaWx@DaveSnider pic.twitter.com/Mnu6ESYfub 6:05 PM - 20 Oct 2018 A few years ago @Climatologist49 and I created an index to track the Alaska temp departures using 25 locations around the state. Here's the daily average temp dept from normal & the index since June 01. Current warm streak is the greatest since Apr-May 2016. #akwx @wxjerdman pic.twitter.com/yUPl5sQZwO 9:35 AM - 20 Oct 2018

Updated for the 3.94 at Sayville. Sayville 3.94 700 AM 10/12 CoCoRaHS

Record warmth continues with nearly no sea ice gains the last few days. The delayed freeze up is letting 2018 get closer to 2nd lowest extent for early October set in 2007.

This current Arctic temperature spike is now easily the warmest on record for the early part of October. Another example of Arctic amplification going off the rails. http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/ Rick Thoman @ AlaskaWx Chukchi Sea ice extent from the @NSIDC passive microwave data has fallen over the past several days and as of October 05 is the third lowest since 1979: only 2007 and 2012 were lower. #Arctic #akwx #seaice @Climatologist49@ZLabe @CinderBDT907 pic.twitter.com/aZiqV4FWuT 8:54 AM - 6 Oct 2018

Updated for the areas of Fairfield County that picked up over 3.00" with the storms yesterday. ...Fairfield County... 2 NE Fairfield 3.95 703 AM 10/03 CoCoRaHS 2 ENE Fairfield 3.82 815 AM 10/03 CWOP 5 SE Bedford 3.82 700 AM 10/03 CoCoRaHS Stamford 3.75 600 AM 10/03 Trained Spotter Darien 3.65 653 AM 10/03 Social Media 2 NW Darien 3.65 700 AM 10/03 CoCoRaHS 3 NNW Norwalk 3.57 700 AM 10/03 CoCoRaHS 4 NNW New Canaan 3.54 630 AM 10/03 CoCoRaHS 2 S New Canaan 3.35 615 AM 10/03 CoCoRaHS 1 WNW Westport 3.30 815 AM 10/03 CWOP

The continuing record warmth is allowing the 2018 extent to edge closer to October 2007 and 2012.

Updated for September 2018. 9..2018....EWR...7....LGA...6...JFK.....8....BDR..6...ISP.....3

Very close to record warm temperatures around the North Pole for the end of September. http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/

This was the latest minimum so far on record tied with 1997. But the extent was much higher that year. The CPC issued an historic forecast for the the NW Alaska region due to the record warmth there. https://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/arctic-sea-ice-2018-minimum-extent Arctic sea ice has likely reached its minimum extent for the year, at 4.59 million square kilometers (1.77 million square miles) on September 19 and 23, according to scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado Boulder. The 2018 minimum ties with 2008 and 2010 as the sixth lowest in the nearly 40-year satellite record. September 23 is the latest day in the year the Arctic sea minimum has occurred in the satellite record—observed this year and in 1997. https://www.arctictoday.com/open-warm-waters-off-arctic-alaska-spark-bold-forecast-warm-october/ The lack of sea ice off Alaska and the persistence of warm temperatures in the open waters there have set up an unusual weather situation — a near-certain forecast of significantly higher-than-normal temperatures for northwestern Alaska. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center forecasts and 85 percent chance that northwestern Alaska will have temperatures significantly warmer than normal in October. That is the “first time in recorded history” that the Climate Prediction Center has issued a probability above 80 percent, said Rick Thoman, climate science and services manager for the National Weather Service in Alaska. “That is a really bold forecast, but all the pieces are in place,” he said at his monthly Alaska climate outlook briefing, held on Friday. Sea-surface temperatures “are about as warm as they’ve ever been” in that region, hitting levels up to 4 degrees Celsius above normal in the northern Bering Sea and southern Chukchi Sea. For fall and early winter, all of Alaska is expected to have weather that is both significantly warmer and significantly wetter than normal, according to the Climate Prediction Center forecast. The wetter-than-normal conditions are part of a clear pattern in place since at least 2003 that is linked to sea-ice retreat, Thoman said. The Climate Prediction Center’s forecast for a wetter-than normal early winter is influenced by an expected El Nino weather pattern in the North Pacific Ocean. Thoman, a climate-science fixture in Alaska, is retiring from the National Weather Service this month and moving to the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy, a NOAA-funded program headquartered at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.

This delayed freeze-up continues to be very impressive. The record ridging and warmth dropped the extent to the 3rd lowest on record behind 2012 and 2007 for 9-26.