bluewave

Looks like we are on track for a new lowest April average sea ice extent. NSIDC monthly record lowest average sea ice extents Jan...2018 Feb.. 2018 Mar...2017 Apr....2019...so far...previous record 2016 May...2016 Jun....2016 Jul.....2012 Aug...2012 Sep...2012 Oct...2012 Nov...2016 Dec...2016 https://mobile.twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/1115700868723003392 Arctic sea ice extent is plummeting into truly uncharted territory for mid-April. (link: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/) nsidc.org/arcticseaicene…

Energy transitions are slow and challenging. Look how difficult it has been for a country like Germany that takes climate change seriously. https://e360.yale.edu/features/carbon-crossroads-can-germany-revive-its-stalled-energy-transition Northern Germany, from the Polish borderlands in the east to the Netherlands in the west, is the stronghold of Germany’s muscular onshore wind power industry. This is where the lion’s share of the country’s nearly 30,000 wind turbines are sited, a combined force equal to the power generation of about 10 nuclear reactors. Where Germany’s northernmost tip abuts Denmark, soaring turbines crowd the horizon as far as the eye can see. And many more are coming as Germany strives to go carbon neutral by 2050. Yet despite their impressive might, the north’s wind parks are a reminder not only of how much has been accomplished in Germany’s Energiewende, or clean energy transition, but also of what remains to be done. Although the country has made a Herculean effort to shift to a clean energy economy — in just the past five years government support and costs to consumers have totaled an estimated 160 billion euros ($181 billion) — Germany’s greenhouse gas emissions have not declined as rapidly as expected in response to the vigorous expansion of renewable energy, which now generates 40 percent of the country’s electricity. Germany’s politicians are even resigned to falling significantly short of the country’s 2020 goal of reducing emissions by 40 percent below 1990 levels. Germany’s failings have come as a vexing shock to its environmentally conscious citizenry. While Germans still overwhelmingly back the energy transition — for years polls showed support in excess of 90 percent — about three-quarters say the government is not doing enough to slow global warming. Today, the Energiewende finds itself stalled and floundering. Germany’s carbon emissions have stagnated at roughly their 2009 level. The country remains Europe’s largest producer and burner of coal, which generates more than one-third of Germany’s power supply. Moreover, emissions in the transportation sector have shot up by 20 percent since 1995 and are rising with no end in sight, experts say. German consumers have seen their electricity bills soar since 2000, in part because of the renewable energy surcharge.

https://mobile.twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/1112750445397577728 Arctic sea ice extent has broken into record-low territory for the start of April. Late-spring & summer weather are bigger factors in determining how much ice cover is lost during the warm season. Still, this is a disconcerting drop. (link: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/) nsidc.org/arcticseaicene… https://mobile.twitter.com/IARC_Alaska/status/1112768243251314688 March was the warmest of record over all nearly of Alaska north of the Alaska Range & Bristol Bay. Some places on the North Slope & in Northwest Arctic Borough were more than 20F (11C) above normal. Early snowmelt southern areas. https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1112711147415691264 Utqiaġvik (Barrow): average March temperature +5.9F (-14.5C) is highest of record, 18.6F (10.3C) above 1981-2010 normal & 6.6F (3.7C) above the previous warmest March (2018). 8 of 10 warmest Marchs since mid-90s. https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1112754212293636096 Kotzebue average temperature for March 23.0F (-5.0C) is 21.9F (12.2C) above normal and 9.5F (5.3C) warmer than ANY other March in the past 90 years. That is so warm it would be a top ten warmest APRIL https://mobile.twitter.com/Pat_wx/status/1112766213913042945 At 14.4°C above normals, this past month was the most anomalous month on record in #Inuvik, including all months and both cold and warm anomalies! Note that February 2019 also made it into the top 10.

Emissions growth in United States, Asia fueled record carbon levels in 2018 https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/03/emissions-growth-united-states-asia-fueled-record-carbon-levels-2018 Global carbon levels reached a record high last year, as surging demand for fossil fuels in the United States and Asia sent emissions soaring, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris said today. The 33.1 gigatons of energy-related carbon dioxide reported in 2018 represents a 1.7% increase over the previous year. It also means emissions have risen in each of the first two full years since the signing of the Paris climate agreement, leaving the world far short of the 26% to 28% cut in emissions targeted by 2025. We see that there is a growing disconnect between those calls and what is happening in the real markets,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a call announcing the findings. “Once again, we have a major increase in global CO2 emissions, which brings us further to reach the climate targets which were established by several countries internationally.” Surging energy consumption fueled by strong economic growth in the United States and Asia was the primary cause of the emissions spike, the agency said. Global energy consumption was up 2.3% in 2018, roughly double the average annual growth rate since 2010. Fossil fuels met almost 70% of the new demand for the second year running, with demand for natural gas especially strong. Global natural gas consumption was up 4.6%, while oil rose 1.3% and coal increased 0.7%. China, India, and the United States accounted for 70% of all energy demand and 85% of the net increase in emissions, IEA reported. Robert Jackson, a professor who tracks energy and climate policy at Stanford University, said the findings reflect the confluence of several long-term trends that could prod emissions even higher in the future. While coal use is declining in the United States and Europe, coal consumption is increasing in Asia, where governments have turned to the fuel to power economic development efforts. Strong economic growth in India saw coal consumption increase by roughly 5%, while coal generation was up 5.3% in China, according to IEA figures. At the same time, growing oil and natural gas use in the United States has offset emissions reductions associated with coal’s decline in America, Jackson said. “I don’t see global emissions dropping anytime soon,” Jackson said. “We had three years where global emissions were essentially flat. 2017 was a slight uptick. We wondered if it was a blip. It’s not. This increase in global emissions is real and more difficult to address than I expected.” There were some positives in the report for climate hawks, said Nathan Hultman, director of the University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability in College Park and a former Obama administration official. Solar deployment increased by more than 30% on the year, while wind was up 12%. Improvements in energy efficiency rates fell from 1.9% in 2018 to 1.3% in 2018, the fourth consecutive year of decline, but still were the largest source of global carbon abatement. The problem is those gains were offset by growing demand for fossil fuels, he said. “You have the solutions at hand,” Hultman said. “They need to be deployed more quickly, and this is what happens when you don’t.” In the United States, natural gas demand spiked 10%, or by 10 billion cubic meters, an increase roughly equivalent to the gas consumption of the United Kingdom. That spike was complemented by strong demand for oil, especially from the petrochemical sector. American oil demand was up by 540,000 barrels per day in 2018, the largest increase in the world. That resulted in a 3.1% increase in U.S. carbon emissions. Reprinted from Climatewire with permission from E&E News. Copyright 2019. E&E provides essential news for energy and environment professionals at www.eenews.net.

Yeah, ocean heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense as the planet warms. https://phys.org/news/2019-03-ocean-heatwaves-devastate-wildlife-worse.html Invisible to people but deadly to marine life, ocean heatwaves have damaged ecosystems across the globe and are poised to become even more destructive, according to the first study to measure worldwide impacts with a single yardstick. The number of marine heatwave days has increased by more than 50 percent since the mid-20th century, researchers reported in the journal Nature Climate Change. "Globally, marine heatwaves are becoming more frequent and prolonged, and record-breaking events have been observed in most ocean basins in the past decade," said lead author Dan Smale, a researcher at the Marine Biological Association in Plymouth, Britain. Above the ocean watermark, on Earth's surface, 18 of the last 19 years have been the warmest on record, leading to more severe storms, droughts, heatwaves and flooding. "Just as atmospheric heatwaves can destroy crops, forests and animal populations, marine heatwaves can devastate ocean ecosystems," Smale told AFP. Compared to hot spells over land, which have claimed tens of thousands of lives since the start of the century, ocean heatwaves have received scant scientific attention. But sustained spikes in sea-surface temperatures can also have devastating consequences. A 10-week marine heatwave near western Australia in 2011, for example, shattered an entire ecosystem and permanently pushed commercial fish species into colder waters. Corals have been the marquee victims of shallow-water heatwaves, and face a bleak future. Even if humanity manages to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius—mission impossible, according to some scientists—up to 90 percent of corals are likely to die, the UN's top climate science body said in October. But other bedrock species have suffered too: the 2011 surge of heat killed off large swathes of seagrass meadows and kelp forests, along with the finfish and abalone that depend on them. Another ocean hot spell off the coast of California warmed waters by 6 C (10.8 F) and lasted for more than a year. Known at "The Blob", it generated toxic algae blooms, caused the closure of crab fisheries, and led to the death of sea lions, whales and sea birds. More frequent and intense ocean heatwaves also have a direct impact on people by reducing fisheries harvests and adding to global warming, the researchers noted. "Species of fish and crustaceans targeted for human consumption may be locally wiped out," Smale said. "And carbon stored by sea grasses and mangroves may be released if they are hit by extreme temperatures." To determine the full extent of marine heatwave impacts across different oceans, Smale and an international team from 19 research centres crunched data from more than 1,000 field studies that reported on how organisms and ecosystem responded. By definition, marine heatwaves last at least five days. Sea water temperatures for a given location are "extremely high"—the top 5-to-10 percent on record for that time and place. "Marine heatwaves can penetrate to hundreds of metres, though for our analysis we used data which only captures warming at the surface," Smale said. As manmade global warming heats the planet, oceans have absorbed some 90 percent of the extra heat generated. Without that heat sponge, air temperatures would be intolerably higher. Even if humanity does manage to cap global warming at "well below" 2C (3.6 F), as called for in the Paris climate treaty, marine heatwaves will sharply increase in frequency, intensity and duration, earlier research has shown. Explore further: Climate change multiplies harmful marine heatwaves (Update) More information: Dan A. Smale et al. Marine heatwaves threaten global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services, Nature Climate Change (2019). DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0412-1 Journal reference: Nature Climate Change Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2019-03-ocean-heatwaves-devastate-wildlife-worse.html#jCp

Updated the list to include the 7th snowiest March so far at BDR with 13.5.

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/2019/03/04/bering-sea-ice-is-at-an-unprecedented-low-right-now/ Bering Sea ice is at an ‘unprecedented’ low right now Sea ice is again at a historic low in the Bering Sea. At the time of year when ice usually reaches its maximum, there’s open water in a vast area stretching from Bristol Bay to the Bering Strait, said Rick Thoman, a climate specialist with Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. “You could take your sailboat and sail from Dillingham all the way to Little Diomede and never see much more than an ice cube,” he said. March and early April are typically when sea ice in the Bering Sea reaches its maximum extent, and when communities that live along the coast travel on the ice for subsistence hunting and fishing. The unprecedented lack of ice in the Bering Sea follows another record-breaking winter. Last spring, in 2018, the extent of ice in the Bering Sea only reached half of its previous lowest size, which was recorded in 2001. Thoman called the lack of ice “stunning” at the time. This spring, the situation is even more extreme. While there’s more ice on the Russian side of the Bering Sea, there’s virtually none on the Alaska side. Watch the anomalous southerly flow push sea ice poleward through the Bering Strait since February https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1103690280576802818?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

March 3-4, 2019 Fairfield County... Monroe 12.0 640 AM 3/04 Trained Spotter 3 ESE Bethel 12.0 700 AM 3/04 CoCoRaHS

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1101160230199603200?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet Very little #seaice left in Alaskan waters of the Bering Sea from AMSR2 data as continued storminess has eroded away near all of the ice south of 64N. The significant areas of open water in the southern Chukchi Sea and Kotzebue Sound just stunning. https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1101263457918234629?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet Suomi NPP image courtesy @uafgina early Thursday afternoon, February 28. The loss of #seaice in the Bering and southern Chukchi Seas is beyond belief. The impacts to western Alaskan communities immense. https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1101300151388332032?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet Utqiaġvik (Barrow) sets a new record high temperature for February 28. Through 3pm AKST, the high has been 33F (+0.6C), which nips the previous record of 32F (0.0C) set in 1960. This is the 6th day this month to set or tie a daily record high.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1099865227414331393 330pm AKST Sunday SNPP shows more of Kotzebue Sound. Ice completely pulled away from northern Seward Pen coast. Southern Chukchi Sea looks like more like late May/early June. Suomi NPP image 147pm AKST Sunday shows the weekend storm has decimated #seaice in the Bering Sea. Little more than "junk ice" anywhere in the open Bering Sea except near the Strait. Impacts on communities and ecosystems continue apace. Utqiaġvik (Barrow) high temp so far today 30F (-1.1C) is a new record high for February 24rd. Previous record 29F (-1.8C) in 2011 & fifth day this month to set or tie a daily record high. Climate obs since October 1920. #

https://mobile.twitter.com/ajatnuvuk/status/1093786714022105088 It’s February, the coldest month of the year. We have open water in front of Utqiagvik. It is 30 F out at 11:20 at night. Strange days indeed. https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1094296276730925056 Incredible warmth on the North Slope Friday, with temperatures in most places 30 to 50F (18-28C) above the daily normal! https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1094017492580655105 MODIS image from Friday afternoon courtesy @uafgina showing impacts on #seaice in the northern Bering & southern Chukchi Seas of recent mild, stormy weather. A lot of water showing up, even significant areas north of the Bering Strait.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-201812 December’s combined global land and ocean average surface temperature departure from average was the second warmest December in the 139-year record. With 11 of 12 monthly global land and ocean temperature departures from average ranking among the five warmest for their respective months, 2018 became the fourth warmest year in NOAA's 139-year record.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1092449357096353792 2018's average #Arctic sea ice extent was the 2nd lowest on record Data from consistent passive microwave satellite record (1979-2019)

It could be the trapped heat finally reaching the surface. https://www.carbonbrief.org/natural-ocean-fluctuations-help-explain-antarctic-sea-ice-changes/amp?__twitter_impression=true It is possible that this could explain why, during 2016, sea ice levels reached record lows, he adds: Although the overall magnitude of changes to ocean convection is not yet known, it is possible that the trapped heat could escape to the surface, Zhang says:

A solar minimum is no match for the CO2 forcing. There was a good paper out on this several years ago. As for the AMO, the sea ice was in decline during the last cold phase during the 80's into the mid-90's. Natural oscillations like the PDO and AMO can impact shorter term rates of decline. But the long term decline is a result of rising global and Arctic temperatures. https://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/feulner/research/how-would-a-new-grand-minimum-of-solar-activity-affect-the-future-climate

Quick gains in Hudson Bay won't do anything for the long term volume downward trend. It's a peripheral region outside the main Arctic basin that completely melts out in the summer. So you can't retain any ice there since it's all first year.

It was quite high in the Hudson Bay, but not the Arctic. That's why the regional sea ice figures tell the bigger story.

No problem. Zack Labe does a great job putting together all the Arctic data in detail on his site. Patwx is a great resource on twitter for Canadian weather records. https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/ https://mobile.twitter.com/pat_wx?lang=en

There's nothing particularly rapid about the sea ice growth in the Arctic this month. But the record cold to the south of the Arctic in Hudson Bay area is responsible for the fast increase above average there. It looks like it could be a result of the Warm Arctic, Cold Continents pattern. 7th consecutive day of record #cold in Southern #Nunavut, this time extended into Northern Ontario, Quebec and Labrador as Arctic front moves south!#MeteoQC #ONwx #MBwx pic.twitter.com/PB7jyVrBak 9:17 AM - 21 Nov 2018

Yeah, 27 storms so far for the 2010’s is a remarkable number. It reflects the record amount of snowfall that has occurred in this decade. This increase in 12"+ snowstorms also shows up as a record number of KU storms for the 2010’s. The text product archive with all the snowstorms in the OKX zones is incomplete before 2008. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml Archive Completeness: 1996 thru 2001: Sometimes sparse / missing data. Also note that product source IDs are likely different back then (prior to NWS Modernization), some work was done to assign present day WMO source IDs to the product metadata stored in the database. The original text as not modified. Known holes exist at: 29 Oct-1 Nov 1998, 24-27 Dec 1998, 25-28 Jul 1999, 21-25 Jan 2000, 26-27 Mar 2000, 12-13 Jun 2001, 28-29 Jul 2001. 2002 thru 2007: More consistent archives, but still likely missing things. Much better coverage though. 2008 thru now: Very good data coverage and higher fidelity archiving.

There are some interesting surprises with the timing of 12"+ snowstorms during the historic 2010's snowfall era. The first unusual occurrence is that the October 29 to November 15 period has been more active than the December 1-15 interval. Another interesting pattern is the more active first half of March than the second part of February. Roughly 2 week snowfall periods for the 2010's and number of 12"+ snowstorms Oct 29-Nov 15.....3 Nov 16-Nov 30....0 Dec 1- Dec 15.....0 Dec 16-Dec 31....3 Jan1-Jan 15.......4 Jan16-Jan 31.....6 Feb 1-Feb 15.....7 Feb 16-Feb 28...1 Mar 1- Mar 15....6 Mar 16-Mar 31...1 Apr 1-Apr 16.....0 Individual events and the highest snowfall totals 2022 Jan 28-29….Islip….24.7 2021 Jan 31-Feb 2....Blomingdale, NJ.....26.1 2020 Dec 16-17 East Tremont, NY....12.4 2019 Mar 3-4...Monroe, CT....12.0 2018 Nov 15....Mount Hope, NY.......18.3 Mar 21-22...Patchogue, NY......20.1 Mar 13...Southampton,NY.....18.3 Mar 8....New Farfield, CT..........26.8 Mar 2...Monroe, NY.................14.0 Jan 4...Islip, NY.......................15.8 2017 Mar 14...Montgomery, NY.......23.5 Feb 9...Selden, NY...................16.0 Jan 7...Orient, NY....................12.5 2016 Feb 5...Setauket, NY................12.0 Jan 23..JFK,NY.........................30.5 2015 Feb 2..New Faifield, CT............12.0 Jan 26-27....Orient,NY.............28.5 2014 Feb 13-14...Roselle, NJ............16.7 Jan 21-22....Centerreach,NY....14.0 Jan 2-3......Lindenhurst, NY.....12.5 2013 Mar 8....Harriman,NY..............15.0 Feb 8....Upton, NY..................30.9 2012 Nov 7-8.....Monroe, CT..........13.5 Jan 21......North Haven, CT....12.0 2011 Oct 29.....Harriman, NY.........16.0 Jan 26-27...NYC................... 19.0 Jan 11-12.......Meriden, CT....29.0 2010 Feb 25-26...Mount Hope, NY...27.5 Dec 26........Elizabeth, NJ........31.8 Feb. 10.....Sound Beach, NY....16.2 2009 Dec 19-20....Upton, NY..........26.3

Ice-free Arctic summers could hinge on small climate warming range https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/04/180402110733.htm A range of less than one degree Fahrenheit (or half a degree Celsius) of climate warming over the next century could make all the difference when it comes to the probability of future ice-free summers in the Arctic, new University of Colorado Boulder research shows. The findings, which were published today in the journal Nature Climate Change, show that limiting warming to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) would reduce the likelihood of an ice-free Arctic summer to 30 percent by the year 2100, whereas warming by 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) would make at least one ice-free summer certain. "I didn't expect to find that half a degree Celsius would make a big difference, but it really does," said Alexandra Jahn, author of the study and an assistant professor in CU Boulder's Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and a fellow in the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR). "At 1.5 degrees Celsius, half of the time we stay within our current summer sea ice regime whereas if we reach 2 degrees of warming, the summer sea ice area will always be below what we have experienced in recent decades." The study used simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) run at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and examined warming scenarios ranging from 1.5 degrees Celsius all the way to 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century. The lower bound of the study is an important benchmark worldwide; in 2015, the international Paris Climate Agreement set a global target of constraining warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Arctic sea ice extent has declined overall in recent years with increasing global temperatures, but the effects of future warming remain uncertain. The new findings illustrate that different scenarios of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission levels lead to drastically different results for Arctic summer sea ice. "This dataset allows us to predict how soon we're likely to see ice free conditions as well as how often," said Jahn. "Under the 4-degree Celsius scenario, we would have a high probability of a three-month ice free period in the summer months by 2050. By the end of century, that could jump to five months a year without ice. And even for half that warming, ice-free conditions of up to 2 month a year are possible by the late 21st century." But, Jahn continued, if warming stays at 1.5 degrees Celsius, the probability of ice-free summers would drop by 70 percent, delaying or potentially even avoiding such occurrence altogether. The significant difference in the results, Jahn said, might provide added incentive for countries to attempt to hit the 1.5-degree Celsius warming target in order to preserve current ecological conditions. "The good news is that sea ice has quick response times and could theoretically recover if we brought down global temperatures at any point in the future," said Jahn. "In the meantime, though, other ecosystems could see permanent negative impacts from the ice loss, and those can't necessarily bounce back." The study was funded by the University of Colorado Boulder and the National Science Foundation. Story Source: Materials provided by University of Colorado at Boulder. Original written by Trent Knoss. Note: Content may be edited for style and length. Journal Reference: Alexandra Jahn. Reduced probability of ice-free summers for 1.5 °C compared to 2 °C warming. Nature Climate Change, 2018; DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0127-8

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2018/11/autumn-spring-arctics-new-season November on the coast of the Barents Sea has been unseasonably warm. Halfway, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute could report 5,9 degrees Celsius above normal for Troms and Finnmark region in northern Norway. What was snow-covered and frozen in late October is again rainy and warm. The warm weather are confusing plants and trees. Some, like the low-growing goat willow tree, believes it is spring. On Friday, catkins, the fuzzy soft silver-colored nubs, started to appear, both near Kirkenes and in Murmansk Both are cities far above the Arctic Circle. Catkins are actually the trees’ flowers just before they fully bloom, like you normally can see in late April, early May in the Barents Region. “Very interesting, but not at all good news,” says Paul Eric Aspholm, Research Scientist with the Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO). Aspholm works at Svanhovd, NIBIO’s department in the Pasvik valley in the Norwegian-Russian borderland, the heart of the area experiencing some of the most dramatic climate changes in the Arctic. He explains how such confusion like we see this November could harm trees and plants in the Arctic. “The plants use a lot of energy when blooming. It is a kind of failed reproduction and no seeds are produced. One thing is the catkins we can see, but there are likely a lot of other processes going on inside the plant disturbing the balance in what should be the dormant phase.”

JFK picked up 3.7 back in November 1989. I added the top 10 greatest snowfall amounts in November for JFK. #1...4.8....2018 #2...4.3....2012 #3...3.7...1989 #4...2.6....1995 #5...2.1....1967 #6...1.7....1978 #7...0.6....1977...1959 #8...0.5....1949 #9...0.4....1987...1986 #10...0.3...2002