bluewave

Don, it looks like the FV3 will go operational tomorrow barring any last minute delays. Hopefully, they can fix the cold bias that produced all the fantasy snow for us last winter. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/06/weather-service-says-its-upgraded-american-forecasting-model-is-about-ready-prime-time/?utm_term=.534f91df1092 https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-40gfs_v15_1.pdf

A new month and another US location picks up double-digit rainfall totals. The record wet pattern is forecast to continue for the US. The only question is whether one of our major climate sites records a double digit-rainfall month before this streak ends. Some smaller stations may have pulled this off last August. 2010’s 10.00”+ months for at least one of our major climate sites including airports and NYC Mar 2010 Aug Sep 2011 Jun 2013 Aug 2014 NORTH CAROLINA... BOONE 4 E 13.57 FLEETWOOD 2 N 10.25 TROUT 2 SE 10.17

Maybe it was a link between the potent MJO and final stratospheric warming in April.

This would have been an epic KU pattern during the winter. Check out the classic Greenland block westward retrogression. So we get a strong +PNA rise day 6-10.

Be interesting to see if one of our major climate sites can pick up a 10.00+” rainfall month before this streak ends. Some smaller stations may have done it last summer. But the last 10.00”+ month at one of our major sites was August 2014 at Islip.

More heavy rainfall potential this week as multiple storms undercut the near record Greenland block for June at 585 DM. At least we were able to sneak in a dry weekend in the continuing record US rainfall pattern.

The wavy jet strikes again. https://mobile.twitter.com/KKornhuber/status/1136027676152619008

You know that there is an extreme -NAO pattern in June when we can’t reach the 90’s with a 588 DM ridge.

Undular bore with the weak backdoor to our east. MTP dropped nearly 10 degrees with the wind shift. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KMTP&table=1&num=168&banner=off

No 90 degree heat for a while as 80 will continue to be the new 90.

Looks like the earliest in the season that north of 80N went above freezing. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

It’s not only near the ocean. Elevating the homes in the expanding flood zones will be a very expensive proposition. https://www.citylab.com/environment/2018/03/new-report-says-fema-badly-underestimates-flood-risk/554627/

Only the 4th day to reach 80 degrees this year at Islip.

These are pretty cool.

The army corps is working on a plan for the back bays. But flood gates have plenty of environmental concerns. Such a flood control system would be big bucks. https://www.riverkeeper.org/blogs/ecology/storm-surge-barriers-for-ny-harbor-threaten-life-of-the-hudson-river/ https://www.nap.usace.army.mil/Missions/Civil-Works/Nassau-County-Back-Bays-Study/ https://patch.com/new-york/longbeach/army-corps-holding-public-meetings-back-bays-study The Army Corps released a status report on April 30 which includes information on work completed to date, potential alternatives under consideration and details on next steps. Some of the measures that will be discussed at the public meetings include structural solutions such as storm surge barriers, tide gates, levees and floodwalls; non-structural solutions such as elevating homes; and natural features such as marsh restoration and the creation of living shorelines. The final plan may also include recommendations of policy items such as floodplain management and Community Rating System enhancement opportunities.

Initially, the heaviest rains will stay to our south where the cutoff low stalls out. But once it ejects next week, that’s we we could see some heavy convection move north. As always, convection usually comes down to nowcast time for us.

Foggy morning with our first 70 degree dew points of the season. Now that our summertime dews have arrived, the Euro drops some extreme rains to our south over the next week. The historic wet period since 2018 for the CONUS continues unabated. Staten Island N/A 70 70 100

The new Euro seasonal update today continues the same general pattern for us.

There are warmer and cooler versions of a summer -NAO for our area. It all depends on how the -NAO combines with the other teleconnections. We are currently in a -NAO combo with the background pattern that is muting the high temperature potential. Warmer -NAO summer group since 2007 for Newark 90 degree days for year 2010....54 2011....31 2012...33 2015...35 2016...40 Cooler group 2007...21 2008...22 2009...14 2014...15

Warmest May on record for the Arctic. https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/

The record -NAO in May muted the influence of the SE Ridge for us. All the clouds, rain, and easterly flow suppressed our high temperatures.

If this follows past years, then the summer may continue with some degree of a -NAO pattern. We’ll just have to wait and see. https://mobile.twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/1136004583946432513 June 2019 looks to feature a -NAO, but does this suggest it will dominate the summer? Historical analysis suggests so, with only 6 of 39 (15%) Junes with a negative mean NAO forming part of a JJA period with a +NAO. You're correct, I was just thinking of the three months as a whole (i.e. there's unlikely to be a massive swing to offset a negative June, or further neg.). But here's the equivalent for Jul-Aug vs. June. Weaker relationship, 14 positive Jul-Aug of 39 negative Junes (36%).

It will take another dip in about 6-10 days. The May record drop has reset it negative for the time being. So it’s a more of the same type of weather pattern.

I am really happy how Long Beach found a way to bounce back after Sandy. The whole oceanfront has changed pretty dramatically with the major beach reconstruction. I couldn’t believe how different things looked when I visited recently. Plenty of new restaurants and boardwalk concessions recently opened up. Seems like a big influx of new residents from NYC after Sandy. I guess all the new FEMA compliant construction was an opening for newcomers to move there.

A few of the long range climate models did a good job predicting the 2013 shift ahead of time. So there are clues that the models can pick up on. But some of the subpatterns within this greater shift have only become obvious after the fact.