bluewave

It seems like all the record Pacific SST warmth west of the dateline produced more of La Niña response from the SOI, MJO, and Pacific Jet.

Some pretty extreme heat out there since the PDO and NPM warmed so dramatically in recent years. The North Pacific warm blob has been dueling with the one off the East Coast. We saw all-time heat records for May in the SE US. Our area has found a way to avoid the record heat this year so far. Less warm is the new cool.

Ridiculous June heat in San Francisco. https://mobile.twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/1138246762479652864 Today's 100 degree max temp at SFO also goes down as the hottest max temperature in meteorological summer (June-July-August) on record. All other 100 degree days on record occurred in September.

One of the rare deep blue sky days with no smoke or scattered clouds.

Extent just fell below 2016 for a new record on this date. https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1138471666630053888 As of June 10th, Arctic sea ice is now the lowest on record during the satellite era (1979-2019). The extent is typical for Jun 28th. As the basin scale, the Beaufort Sea ice is the big loser. It is already at a mid-August state! https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1137749983787012096 Unprecedented early #seaice loss from both Chukchi & Beaufort Seas north and west of Alaska. June 8th extent from is 1981-2010 median for Aug 01! Five lowest extents for this date are 2015 through 2019.

Looks like a new record coming up for Greenland 500 MB heights since 1979. https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1138418242337333248 The negative NAO will soon culminate with the strongest ridge in decades (> 4 sigma anomaly). 5880 gpm isoline above Greenland is something you have never seen before (i.e. outside the whole ERA5 climatology).

Don, it looks like the FV3 will go operational tomorrow barring any last minute delays. Hopefully, they can fix the cold bias that produced all the fantasy snow for us last winter. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/06/weather-service-says-its-upgraded-american-forecasting-model-is-about-ready-prime-time/?utm_term=.534f91df1092 https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-40gfs_v15_1.pdf

A new month and another US location picks up double-digit rainfall totals. The record wet pattern is forecast to continue for the US. The only question is whether one of our major climate sites records a double digit-rainfall month before this streak ends. Some smaller stations may have pulled this off last August. 2010’s 10.00”+ months for at least one of our major climate sites including airports and NYC Mar 2010 Aug Sep 2011 Jun 2013 Aug 2014 NORTH CAROLINA... BOONE 4 E 13.57 FLEETWOOD 2 N 10.25 TROUT 2 SE 10.17

Maybe it was a link between the potent MJO and final stratospheric warming in April.

This would have been an epic KU pattern during the winter. Check out the classic Greenland block westward retrogression. So we get a strong +PNA rise day 6-10.

Be interesting to see if one of our major climate sites can pick up a 10.00+” rainfall month before this streak ends. Some smaller stations may have done it last summer. But the last 10.00”+ month at one of our major sites was August 2014 at Islip.

More heavy rainfall potential this week as multiple storms undercut the near record Greenland block for June at 585 DM. At least we were able to sneak in a dry weekend in the continuing record US rainfall pattern.

The wavy jet strikes again. https://mobile.twitter.com/KKornhuber/status/1136027676152619008

You know that there is an extreme -NAO pattern in June when we can’t reach the 90’s with a 588 DM ridge.

Undular bore with the weak backdoor to our east. MTP dropped nearly 10 degrees with the wind shift. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KMTP&table=1&num=168&banner=off

No 90 degree heat for a while as 80 will continue to be the new 90.

Looks like the earliest in the season that north of 80N went above freezing. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

It’s not only near the ocean. Elevating the homes in the expanding flood zones will be a very expensive proposition. https://www.citylab.com/environment/2018/03/new-report-says-fema-badly-underestimates-flood-risk/554627/

Only the 4th day to reach 80 degrees this year at Islip.

These are pretty cool.

The army corps is working on a plan for the back bays. But flood gates have plenty of environmental concerns. Such a flood control system would be big bucks. https://www.riverkeeper.org/blogs/ecology/storm-surge-barriers-for-ny-harbor-threaten-life-of-the-hudson-river/ https://www.nap.usace.army.mil/Missions/Civil-Works/Nassau-County-Back-Bays-Study/ https://patch.com/new-york/longbeach/army-corps-holding-public-meetings-back-bays-study The Army Corps released a status report on April 30 which includes information on work completed to date, potential alternatives under consideration and details on next steps. Some of the measures that will be discussed at the public meetings include structural solutions such as storm surge barriers, tide gates, levees and floodwalls; non-structural solutions such as elevating homes; and natural features such as marsh restoration and the creation of living shorelines. The final plan may also include recommendations of policy items such as floodplain management and Community Rating System enhancement opportunities.

Initially, the heaviest rains will stay to our south where the cutoff low stalls out. But once it ejects next week, that’s we we could see some heavy convection move north. As always, convection usually comes down to nowcast time for us.

Foggy morning with our first 70 degree dew points of the season. Now that our summertime dews have arrived, the Euro drops some extreme rains to our south over the next week. The historic wet period since 2018 for the CONUS continues unabated. Staten Island N/A 70 70 100

The new Euro seasonal update today continues the same general pattern for us.

There are warmer and cooler versions of a summer -NAO for our area. It all depends on how the -NAO combines with the other teleconnections. We are currently in a -NAO combo with the background pattern that is muting the high temperature potential. Warmer -NAO summer group since 2007 for Newark 90 degree days for year 2010....54 2011....31 2012...33 2015...35 2016...40 Cooler group 2007...21 2008...22 2009...14 2014...15