bluewave

Yeah, this area is so extensive that it’s able to have more of an impact. But it’s also an indication of the continuing record wet pattern. Brian B had an interesting thread on seasonal temperature trends across the US. While this year is a reflection of the extreme rains and stuck weather patterns, long term there has been muted high summer temperatures there. Maybe a combination of weather patterns and long term land use changes and irrigation. https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1140048246477168640 100-year trend (change) in summer high (left) and low (right) temperatures based on NCEI county-level climate data. Notice anything different?

The other thing that is currently countering any major heat for us is the near record soil moisture and rains to our west. Record cool temperatures for this time of year there. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSChicago/status/1140410971426398208 Today's high temperature of 60 degrees at Chicago O'hare is the coldest high during the second half of June that Chicago's experienced in over a quarter century. The last time it was this cold during the second half of June was back on June 20,1992 when the high was 57 degrees

8th longest -NAO period on record. The last top 10 run during winter was 10-11. Parts of the area had 60” of snow in just over 30 days. Remarkable that 5 out of the top 10 longest runs occurred during such a short interval from 2010 to 2012. https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1140676758997483520 The current negative North Atlantic Oscillation period has already lasted for 53 days, which makes it 8th longest -NAO periods on record. Still couple of days likely to be added.

It’s just representative of a pattern with an unusually strong 50/50 low. Notice how the ensembles keep underestimating its strength around 7-10 days out. So the high temperature potential continues to get muted. New run Old run

No surprise that the front is stalled out near 40N with a SST gradient like this. The cold pool east of New England and the Canadian Maritimes set a new record coldest SST’s for the month of May.

Heavy downpour moving through SW Suffolk now with the dew point up to 68.

This is the first time since 2012 that we had such a hostile pattern from 05-15 to 6-14.

Guess where the frontal zone gets stuck. Look familiar? https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1140217511536943104/photo/1

The Pacific side has gotten off to an especially rough start this year. https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1140230023636541440 Sea ice extent in the Chukchi & Beaufort Seas near Alaska at record low level for mid-June. A storm this past week pushed broken #seaice back over previously open water in the Beaufort Sea, resulting in a slight increase in extent.

These muted high temperatures through the solstice are unusual by 2010’s standards. Lowest maximum temperature for this decade at EWR and NYC. 2nd coolest at LGA. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to Jun 21 Missing Count 1 2019-06-21 90 6 2 2014-06-21 92 0 3 2015-06-21 93 0 4 2013-06-21 94 0 5 2010-06-21 95 0 6 2018-06-21 96 0 - 2016-06-21 96 0 8 2017-06-21 99 0 - 2012-06-21 99 0 10 2011-06-21 102 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to Jun 21 Missing Count 1 2019-06-21 86 6 2 2015-06-21 89 0 - 2014-06-21 89 0 4 2013-06-21 90 0 5 2018-06-21 92 0 - 2016-06-21 92 0 - 2010-06-21 92 0 8 2017-06-21 94 0 - 2012-06-21 94 0 10 2011-06-21 95 0 Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to Jun 21 Missing Count 1 2014-06-21 88 0 2 2019-06-21 89 6 3 2016-06-21 92 0 - 2015-06-21 92 0 5 2018-06-21 93 0 - 2013-06-21 93 0 7 2010-06-21 94 0 8 2011-06-21 97 0 9 2012-06-21 98 0 10 2017-06-21 101 0

2nd highest winds of month here on the South Shore with gusts around 40 mph. The strongest winds were a few weeks back with the 50 mph thunderstorm gusts.

That cold pool is related to the AMOC, NAO, and Greenland long term melting. It emerged following the record 2012 melt season. But it shifts its location each year where the predominant North Atlantic vortex sets up. This year it has been lingering near the position of the 50/50 low. So the SE Ridge has been getting suppressed. Last year the cold pool and vortex was further north with a record WAR/SE Ridge pattern for us.

The biggest heat remains to our south through at least the next 10 days. The 50/50 low and cold pool continues to keep the SE Ridge in check. Notice how those features remain in place after the -NAO begins to relax.

This was the 2nd warmest on record in Greenland for June behind 2012. https://earther.gizmodo.com/half-of-greenlands-surface-started-melting-this-week-w-1835483363 Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist with the Danish Meteorological Institute, told Earther that the weather station at the top of the ice sheet saw temperatures reach above freezing on Wednesday and they were headed that way again on Thursday. That puts them just a degree or so away from setting the all-time heat record for June, which is currently held by June 2012. The spike in temperatures has caused a spike in melt. Roughly 45 percent of the ice sheet surface has been melting. Normally, less than 10 percent of the ice sheet surface is melting at this time of year. According to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, Wednesday set a daily record for the widest melt area on that date, with 275,000 square miles—an area bigger than Texas—of the ice sheet’s surface becoming a slushy, watery mess. Mottram said the much of the ice is likely to refreeze once the heat breaks, but it will be more primed to melt later in the season. https://mobile.twitter.com/RasmusTonboe/status/1139504201615237120 got the difficult task of retrieving our oceanographic moorings and weather station on sea ice in North West Greenland this year. Rapid melt and sea ice with low permeability and few cracks leaves the melt water on top.

Euro has multiple rounds of convection beginning Sunday and lasting well into next week. Several waves of low pressure ride the stalled out warm front across the area. So no let up in sight for this wet pattern.

Looks like NYC will continue the record setting monthly 3.00” streak which began in February 2018. This should be the 17th consecutive month with no end in sight. NYC could even do it next week with all the convection in the forecast. Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55 2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 4.55 6.82 1.97

The near record 588 DM ridge was over Greenland instead of our area.

Only the 2nd time this decade that LGA hasn’t reached 90 degrees by June 13th. Less warm is the new cool as our high temperature potential remains muted. Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to Jun 13 Missing Count 1 2014-06-13 87 0 2 2019-06-13 89 1 3 2012-06-13 90 0 4 2016-06-13 92 0 - 2015-06-13 92 0 6 2018-06-13 93 0 - 2013-06-13 93 0 8 2010-06-13 94 0 9 2011-06-13 97 0 10 2017-06-13 101 0

Yeah, the entire Pacific Basin west of the dateline.

It seems like all the record Pacific SST warmth west of the dateline produced more of La Niña response from the SOI, MJO, and Pacific Jet.

Some pretty extreme heat out there since the PDO and NPM warmed so dramatically in recent years. The North Pacific warm blob has been dueling with the one off the East Coast. We saw all-time heat records for May in the SE US. Our area has found a way to avoid the record heat this year so far. Less warm is the new cool.

Ridiculous June heat in San Francisco. https://mobile.twitter.com/wxmvpete/status/1138246762479652864 Today's 100 degree max temp at SFO also goes down as the hottest max temperature in meteorological summer (June-July-August) on record. All other 100 degree days on record occurred in September.

One of the rare deep blue sky days with no smoke or scattered clouds.

Extent just fell below 2016 for a new record on this date. https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1138471666630053888 As of June 10th, Arctic sea ice is now the lowest on record during the satellite era (1979-2019). The extent is typical for Jun 28th. As the basin scale, the Beaufort Sea ice is the big loser. It is already at a mid-August state! https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1137749983787012096 Unprecedented early #seaice loss from both Chukchi & Beaufort Seas north and west of Alaska. June 8th extent from is 1981-2010 median for Aug 01! Five lowest extents for this date are 2015 through 2019.

Looks like a new record coming up for Greenland 500 MB heights since 1979. https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1138418242337333248 The negative NAO will soon culminate with the strongest ridge in decades (> 4 sigma anomaly). 5880 gpm isoline above Greenland is something you have never seen before (i.e. outside the whole ERA5 climatology).