bluewave

This is the lowest that CPOM has gone since they began issuing outlooks back around 2014. While their forecasts usually finish within the error bars, they are often a little too high. CPOM June forecast compared September average NSIDC extent verification Standard Deviations +/- 0.5 mill. km2 2018...F...5.30....V...4.71 2017...F...5.00.....V..4.80 2016...F...4.50......V..4.70 2015...F...5.10......V..4.63 2014..F....5.40.......V..5.30

Our area just experienced a rare warm season cool temperature statistic for the 2010’s. Both NYC and LGA recorded their 3rd coolest maximum temperature for the first 3 weeks of June. Very unusual in a decade defined by historic warm season heat. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 21 Missing Count 1 1916-06-21 81 0 - 1903-06-21 81 0 2 2009-06-21 82 0 - 1878-06-21 82 0 - 1875-06-21 82 0 3 2019-06-21 83 0 - 2003-06-21 83 0 - 1900-06-21 83 0 - 1869-06-21 83 0 Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 21 Missing Count 1 2009-06-21 82 0 2 1972-06-21 83 0 3 2019-06-21 84 0 - 1958-06-21 84 0

3 consecutive dry days for NYC is the max for the last 3 months. Have to go back before March 20th to get 4 or 5 dry days in a row with no T. This establishes a new rainy day record in NYC for this time period. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Mar 20 to Jun 20 Missing Count 1 2019-06-20 49 0 2 2003-06-20 44 0 - 1989-06-20 44 0 - 1973-06-20 44 0

At least we should sneak in a dry weekend before our next potential round of convection on Tuesday.

Just when you thought that this -NAO couldn’t get more extreme. https://mobile.twitter.com/burgwx/status/1141897233178255361 The ongoing cyclogenesis over the NE US will have major ramifications downstream. NATL waveguide becomes highly meridional w/ record high 500mb heights downstream of a rex block S of Iceland. Resulting sensible impact is a widespread heat wave across Western Europe.

.40 at the Brooklyn mesonet in 10 minutes with a gust to 20 mph.

The Pacific sector continues to experience the most hostile conditions for the sea ice. https://mobile.twitter.com/alaskawx?lang=en BREAKING CLIMATE: Utqiaġvik (Barrow) has been up to 73F (22.8C) through 7pm AKDT Thursday. This is a new all-time record high for the month of June. Previous record 72F (22.2C) on June 18, 1996. Climate obs since 1920

Another day with heavy rains across the area. Just had another heavy downpour here in SW Suffolk. While it has been a wet month here, Philly has had an epic June rainfall run since 2003. A remarkable 5 top 6 wettest June’s. Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2013 10.56 0 2 2015 8.88 0 3 2003 8.08 0 4 2006 7.95 0 5 1973 7.88 0 6 2019 7.71 10 7 1975 7.57 0 8 1962 7.40 0 9 1969 7.31 0 10 1946 6.69 0

LGA will join the post-solstice first 90 degree day club. Only the 2nd time this decade along with 2014. But we had much less snow this winter. First/Last Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 1978 07-21 (1978) 91 08-17 (1978) 90 26 1972 07-19 (1972) 90 09-17 (1972) 90 59 1985 07-14 (1985) 94 09-06 (1985) 92 53 1947 07-14 (1947) 90 08-26 (1947) 92 42 1960 07-09 (1960) 90 09-01 (1960) 90 53 1982 07-08 (1982) 93 07-26 (1982) 93 17 2014 07-02 (2014) 91 09-06 (2014) 91 65 1958 07-01 (1958) 93 08-15 (1958) 92 44 1998 06-25 (1998) 93 09-27 (1998) 90 93 1963 06-25 (1963) 93 07-28 (1963) 93 32 2003 06-24 (2003) 93 08-22 (2003) 93 58 1980 06-24 (1980) 90 09-22 (1980) 91 89 1948 06-24 (1948) 92 08-29 (1948) 95 65 1990 06-22 (1990) 90 08-27 (1990) 90 65

Marine layer hanging tough east of NYC.

South Florida dewpoints down at Toms River. Toms River PTSUNNY 86 77 74 SW10 29.58F HX 97 POMPANO BEACH FAIR 89 77 67 SE13 30.07S HX 101

More than a month of rainfall in just 3 hours around Philly. https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1141329701178368000 Philadelphia has received more than 4 inches of rain in the past 3 hours. Normal rainfall for the entire month of June is 3.43 inches. Several Flash Flood Warnings are in effect, please heed them https://mobile.twitter.com/Maxar_Weather/status/1141673939468529664 The 4.04" that Philly saw within a three-hour span overnight has an annual exceedance probability of 1%, or a so-called "100-year flood"

TWC back on FIOS TV channel 611 beginning June 24th. https://mobile.twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1141329701178368000

The one consolation prize looks to be a dry NW flow weekend with lower dewpoints.

Classic backdoor day on Long Island with overcast skies, east winds, and upper 60’s at 2pm.

Very close to the spring record for overcast conditions at noon. Most of our stations had 2 out of 3 spring months with around 50% overcast conditions at noon. Climo is generally in the mid 30’s. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=45&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=LGA&hour=12&year=2019&month=3&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Only the 11th time that Newark didn’t reach 90 in June by the solstice. Models attempt to warm the pattern next week. So it will be interesting to see if Newark can score a post solstice June 90 degree day. Very rare for Newark to go the whole month of June without at least 1 day reaching 90. It has only happened 3 years. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 21 Missing Count 1 2009-06-21 83 0 2 2003-06-21 85 0 3 1985-06-21 86 0 - 1948-06-21 86 0 4 2019-06-21 87 3 - 1990-06-21 87 0 - 1980-06-21 87 0 5 1998-06-21 88 0 - 1977-06-21 88 0 - 1972-06-21 88 0 - 1958-06-21 88 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1972 88 0 2 2009 89 0 - 1985 89 0

Record 17 consecutive months with at least 3.00” of precipitation in NYC. Can NYC extend the streak into 2020? Stay tuned.... Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55 2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 4.55 6.82 3.15 M M M M M M

Where was this pattern during the winter? https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1141076320706863104 Check out the NAO trend for the ECMWF Hires

First flood report of the day. At 2:11 PM EDT, 1 NNW White House Stati [Hunterdon Co, NJ] LAW ENFORCEMENT reports FLOOD. US HWY 22 WEST IS CLOSED IN THE AREA OF VAN HORNE RD DUE TO FLOODING.

^^^^ At 2:47 PM EDT, Marlboro TWP [Monmouth Co, NJ] TRAINED SPOTTER reports HAIL of penny size (M0.75 INCH)

1-2” per hour maximum radar rainfall estimates showing up with those training cells moving east.

For the LI crew, heavy downpour moving along the South Shore.

Yeah, warming SST’s are a big piece of the puzzle. Along with more moisture and clouds keeping up the minimums. But solar links to particular weather patterns can be difficult to establish. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0293-3