bluewave

The record Chukchi SST warming has implications for the entire Arctic. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2178160-a-warm-water-time-bomb-could-spell-disaster-for-arctic-sea-ice/ The Arctic is in hot water, literally, following the discovery that heat has been accumulating rapidly in a salty layer of the Arctic Ocean 50 metres down. Currently, it’s being held at that depth by a less dense layer of freshwater overhead, but if the two layers start to mix it could melt all seasonal sea ice, accelerating the already-rapid loss of polar ice cover. Researchers discovered the heat time-bomb after analysing publicly available data on ice cover, and at different depths on sea temperature, heat content and saltiness over the past three decades. The data was gathered around the Canadian Basin, a major basin of the Arctic Ocean fed by waters from the North Chukchi Sea, just north of the Bering Strait between Alaska and Siberia. Over this timespan, the heat content of the salty layer doubled, from 200 to 400 million joules per square metre, enough to reduce overall Arctic ice thickness by 80 centimetres. The root cause is global warming, which has seen temperatures in the Arctic rise by 2 degrees from pre-industrial levels–twice the global average—leading to record-low sea ice coverage. The researchers found that with sea ice retreating, heat absorption by exposed surface waters has increased fivefold in 30 years, mainly from direct sunlight, which no longer gets reflected by ice. And with no ice in the way, strong northerly winds push these newly-warmed surface waters at the Arctic fringes down to the depths where they’re now accumulating under the Arctic. The fear is that the freshwater “lid” keeping them there could fall apart. “It could be lost through increased mechanical mixing of the water layers, especially driven by the winds,” says Mary-Louise Timmermans at Yale University and head of the team. “With continued sea-ice losses, we’d have more wind-driven mixing, and that would erode this natural barrier,” she says. Loss of a protective “freshwater” layer is already happening elsewhere around the Arctic in the Barents Sea north of Scandinavia, allowing warmer Atlantic waters to flow in and potentially destroy an entire Arctic ecosystem in the North Barents Sea within a decade.

We just tied the record for longest -NAO streak on record at 68 days so far. All the high pressure to our north will allow a SE onshore flow July 4th. Instead of the major 95+ heat than can be typical on a SW to W flow around the 4th at places like EWR and LGA. https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1145949327103336450 Today marks the 68th day of negative North Atlantic Oscillation period. Among with 2011, this is the longest -NAO stretch on record (thread below).

We should get a break from the typical first week of July major heat. The only years this decade that didn’t go 95+ at Newark were 2017 and 2015. Newark, NJ Ptcldy Ptcldy Ptcldy Tstrms Ptcldy Ptcldy Ptcldy 68/89 72/91 72/89 73/89 74/90 73/87 69/85 00/30 40/30 30/30 30/50 50/40 40/40 40/30 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jul 1 to Jul 7 Missing Count 2018-07-07 98 0 2017-07-07 90 0 2016-07-07 95 0 2015-07-07 91 0 2014-07-07 96 0 2013-07-07 96 0 2012-07-07 102 0 2011-07-07 97 0 2010-07-07 103 0

Looks like June finished with the 2nd lowest extent on record behind 2016. https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1145720975402553344 Average June #Arctic sea ice extent was the 2nd lowest on record. It was 1,230,000 km² below the 1981-2010 average. https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1145790324465254400 Chukchi Sea average ice extent in June was the lowest of record in 41 years of daily passive microwave data from NSIDC. That means an additional (compared to normal) area the size of Florida was open water being heated by the sun instead of ice.

Fairly typical 2010’s June for the temperature departures. We finished with a very small + departure. Since 2010.....EWR...7 out of 10 +........NYC.....8 out of 10 +.......LGA......9 out of 10+  June...EWR....NYC....LGA 2019...+0.3.....+0.2....+0.6 2018...-0.3.....+0.6.....+0.7 2017..+0.3......+0.6....+1.4 2016..+0.5......+0.9....+1.4 2015...-0.4......-0.2.....-0.9 2014...+0.4.....+1.1....+0.3 2013...+0.9.....+1.3...+1.8 2012.....0.0.....-0.4....+0.7 2011...+2.1.....+0.9...+0.5 2010...+3.8....+3.3....+3.8

I got the gust front here in SW Suffolk also. Rapid increase in winds to around 50-55 mph with numerous broken branches.There was even a large tree uprooted nearby pulling down power lines. The brief downpour arrived after the winds subsided.

This is what can happen with a record breaking -NAO and 50/50 vortex in June. One of the most potent Long Island severe thunderstorm events associated with an upper low dropping south from New England. A new low pressure record for June was set with this persistent feature on the 23rd. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1142932056101416960 A strengthening low pressure system that ushered in cooler conditions across the Northeast this weekend is bringing gales near Atlantic Canada per . Gander, Newfoundland set a low pressure record for the month of June from this Low at 10 am AST Sun: 978.3 mb/28.89".

50,605 affected customers on LI from power outages per PSEG outage map. https://outagemap.psegliny.com/ Affected Customers 50,605 Active Outages 989 Total Customers Served 1,161,973 System Reliability 95.64% Info Updated:Today at 4:28 PM (Information updated every 15 minutes

Very impressive combination of steep mid and low level lapse rates with a 50-60 kt jet near 500mb. https://mobile.twitter.com/pcavlin/status/1145412722110193664 https://mobile.twitter.com/pcavlin/status/1145414275760103424 East Northport from Jamie Jacobsen... tree into a house @News12LI @NWSNewYorkNY

First video from News12 of the downed trees in Commack. https://mobile.twitter.com/News12LI?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

I just got the cell that delivered the 51 mph gust to Farmingdale. Numerous leaves and small branches down here in SW Suffolk. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Kfrg

Impressive radar indicated damaging wind sig near the Miller Place area.

Radar indicated very strong winds with the warned cell approaching Rocky Point. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY/status/1145366418646392832 Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Coram NY, Shirley NY, Medford NY until 1:00 PM EDT

JFK tied the June record of 2 days with 75 degree or higher dewpoints. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=yes&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=AMW&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2019&dpi=100&_fmt=js

8th wettest June on record for Newark. 7 out of the top 11 wettest years have all occurred since 1998. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2003 10.50 0 2 2013 8.74 0 3 2009 7.96 0 4 1975 6.40 0 5 1948 6.19 0 6 1972 6.02 0 7 1952 6.01 0 8 2019 6.00 1 9 2006 5.99 0 10 1998 5.98 0 11 2015 5.90 0

It seems to go in streaks. Numerous wind and hail reports along the South Shore since May. Other times the convection focuses near the North Shore.

Staten Island mesonet gusting to 58 mph. Wind: W at 38 mph Gust: 58 mph http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=STAT

Seeing pictures of .75 inch hail from Farmingdale.

This may be one of the best years for early season hail since late May.

Steep midlevel lapse rates win again. Radar detected hail near Malverne.

These 75 degree dewpoint days usually deliver convection around the area. First cell firing near Valley Stream.

ISP and JFK are the heat index leaders so far with a high of 96. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice= http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Kjfk

The soaked ground is creating a steam bath in the corn belt. 84 degree dewpoints showing up. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DMX&product=RWR&issuedby=FSD SHELDON SUNNY 84 84 100 SE9 30.05R HX 104

Summer is officially underway on Long Island with the first 75 degree Miami dewpoints of the year. Kennedy Intl PTSUNNY 85 75 MacArthur/ISP PTSUNNY 85 75

I started a July thread.