bluewave

Saturday looks like it will be our highest dewpoints of the season so far. The dewpoints are already pushing 80 degrees to our south. So heavy downpours and localized flash flooding will be possible with any training convection. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=RWR&format=CI&version=1 EASTON MOSUNNY 82 79 89 CALM CAMBRIDGE PTSUNNY 82 79 89 SE5

We have had weaker versions of flash flooding piling up hail.

Tame high temperatures by early July 2010’s standards. The Newark high of 90 for the first 4 days is on the cool side for this decade. But the minimum of 77 was tied for the highest. So a continuation of the warm minimums being more impressive than the maximums. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jul 1 to Jul 4 Missing Count 2016-07-04 84 0 2015-07-04 85 0 2019-07-04 90 0 2017-07-04 90 0 2013-07-04 91 0 2011-07-04 92 0 2014-07-04 96 0 2018-07-04 98 0 2012-07-04 98 0 2010-07-04 101 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Min Temperature Jul 1 to Jul 4 Missing Count 2019-07-04 77 0 2018-07-04 77 0 2013-07-04 76 0 2014-07-04 73 0 2012-07-04 73 0 2011-07-04 72 0 2017-07-04 71 0 2016-07-04 70 0 2015-07-04 70 0 2010-07-04 67 0

A record 588+ dam ridge with record heat is ridiculous for Alaska. A similar magnitude record breaking ridge for us would be over 600 dam.

Only the 2nd time out of 13 July 2010’s dates that Newark didn’t reach 90 degrees following a low of 77 degrees. Another case of the warm minimums driving the daily warm departure. 87...+1 77.......+9 82.......+5 All July 2010’s 77 degree mins at Newark and the maxes 7-3-19...87/77 7-1-18...98/77 7-3-18...94/77 7-7-16...95/77 7-8-15...90/77 7-6-13...95/77 7-7-13...96/77 7-15-13...97/77 7-7-12...102/77 7-8-12....96/77 7-21-11...103/77 7.8-10.....87/77 7-18-10...96/77

Yeah, they call it a SPLASH event. But those drifts were caused by small hail being carried and piled by flash flood waters. No doubt that the amount of small hail that was very impressive. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/07/02/mexico-hail-storm-was-massive-wasnt-something-new/?utm_term=.e329decee808

Yeah, probably 6-7 million sq km for September extents. But nothing close to the historic drop in recent times. https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-piecing-together-arctic-sea-ice-history-1850 First, there is no point in the past 150 years where sea ice extent is as small as it has been in recent years. Second, the rate of sea ice retreat in recent years is also unprecedented in the historical record. And, third, the natural fluctuations in sea ice over multiple decades are generally smaller than the year-to-year variability. https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1146506078932230144?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet New study in @AMSJCLi to model #Arctic sea ice volume since 1901: "The sea ice decline over the 1979-2010 period is pan-Arctic and 6 times larger than the net decline during the 1901-40 period."

The one really deep SSW flow day with warm enough 850’s. But the soundings look extra juicy with 75+ dewpoints and PWATS over 2.00”. So clouds and convection may limit the max temperature potential.

The longer reconstructions further back in time make the last 40 years even more exceptional.

Ice has no agenda. It continues melt as the climate warms. The beauty of science is that you don’t have to believe in it for it to work.

Under this regime, it will continue to limit any major 95+ heat for EWR and LGA which has been the norm first week of July during the 2010’s.

The easterly flow fans will love the 12z Euro. It has an easterly component to the winds Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday.

2nd lowest June extent with the 2nd warmest Arctic temperatures. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2019/07/melt-season-shifts-into-high-gear/ https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/

Wild video of the Fire Island ferry crossing the Great South Bay In the severe storms on Sunday.

2019 continues to remain in the top 3 lowest extents right into early July. 7-2 2019....9.056 2012....8.971 2010....8.943

If Newark can hold the min of 77 through midnight, then today may be among the cooler July maxes for such a warm min this decade. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KEWR&table=1&num=168&banner=off All July 2010’s 77 degree mins at Newark and the maxes 7-1-18...98/77 7-3-18...94/77 7-7-16...95/77 7-8-15...90/77 7-6-13...95/77 7-7-13...96/77 7-15-13...97/77 7-7-12...102/77 7-8-12....96/77 7-21-11...103/77 7.8-10.....87/77 7-18-10...96/77

EPS has fairly modest 500 mb ridging for early July by 2010’s standards. Strong -NAO blocking with lingering high pressure near New England will result in more of a SE flow at times. So EWR and LGA will continue to avoid the major 95+ heat at least into the weekend. Major heat has been the norm during the first week of July this decade.

The consolation is we haven’t had very cold and dry winters in recent times. All our colder winters since 2000-2001 have been snowy. We were so dry in the 60’s, that a really cold winter 62-63 could turn out with below average snowfall.

This is the new record. I posted the link above. Another big -NAO drop coming up.

The record Chukchi SST warming has implications for the entire Arctic. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2178160-a-warm-water-time-bomb-could-spell-disaster-for-arctic-sea-ice/ The Arctic is in hot water, literally, following the discovery that heat has been accumulating rapidly in a salty layer of the Arctic Ocean 50 metres down. Currently, it’s being held at that depth by a less dense layer of freshwater overhead, but if the two layers start to mix it could melt all seasonal sea ice, accelerating the already-rapid loss of polar ice cover. Researchers discovered the heat time-bomb after analysing publicly available data on ice cover, and at different depths on sea temperature, heat content and saltiness over the past three decades. The data was gathered around the Canadian Basin, a major basin of the Arctic Ocean fed by waters from the North Chukchi Sea, just north of the Bering Strait between Alaska and Siberia. Over this timespan, the heat content of the salty layer doubled, from 200 to 400 million joules per square metre, enough to reduce overall Arctic ice thickness by 80 centimetres. The root cause is global warming, which has seen temperatures in the Arctic rise by 2 degrees from pre-industrial levels–twice the global average—leading to record-low sea ice coverage. The researchers found that with sea ice retreating, heat absorption by exposed surface waters has increased fivefold in 30 years, mainly from direct sunlight, which no longer gets reflected by ice. And with no ice in the way, strong northerly winds push these newly-warmed surface waters at the Arctic fringes down to the depths where they’re now accumulating under the Arctic. The fear is that the freshwater “lid” keeping them there could fall apart. “It could be lost through increased mechanical mixing of the water layers, especially driven by the winds,” says Mary-Louise Timmermans at Yale University and head of the team. “With continued sea-ice losses, we’d have more wind-driven mixing, and that would erode this natural barrier,” she says. Loss of a protective “freshwater” layer is already happening elsewhere around the Arctic in the Barents Sea north of Scandinavia, allowing warmer Atlantic waters to flow in and potentially destroy an entire Arctic ecosystem in the North Barents Sea within a decade.

We just tied the record for longest -NAO streak on record at 68 days so far. All the high pressure to our north will allow a SE onshore flow July 4th. Instead of the major 95+ heat than can be typical on a SW to W flow around the 4th at places like EWR and LGA. https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1145949327103336450 Today marks the 68th day of negative North Atlantic Oscillation period. Among with 2011, this is the longest -NAO stretch on record (thread below).

We should get a break from the typical first week of July major heat. The only years this decade that didn’t go 95+ at Newark were 2017 and 2015. Newark, NJ Ptcldy Ptcldy Ptcldy Tstrms Ptcldy Ptcldy Ptcldy 68/89 72/91 72/89 73/89 74/90 73/87 69/85 00/30 40/30 30/30 30/50 50/40 40/40 40/30 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jul 1 to Jul 7 Missing Count 2018-07-07 98 0 2017-07-07 90 0 2016-07-07 95 0 2015-07-07 91 0 2014-07-07 96 0 2013-07-07 96 0 2012-07-07 102 0 2011-07-07 97 0 2010-07-07 103 0

Looks like June finished with the 2nd lowest extent on record behind 2016. https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1145720975402553344 Average June #Arctic sea ice extent was the 2nd lowest on record. It was 1,230,000 km² below the 1981-2010 average. https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1145790324465254400 Chukchi Sea average ice extent in June was the lowest of record in 41 years of daily passive microwave data from NSIDC. That means an additional (compared to normal) area the size of Florida was open water being heated by the sun instead of ice.

Fairly typical 2010’s June for the temperature departures. We finished with a very small + departure. Since 2010.....EWR...7 out of 10 +........NYC.....8 out of 10 +.......LGA......9 out of 10+  June...EWR....NYC....LGA 2019...+0.3.....+0.2....+0.6 2018...-0.3.....+0.6.....+0.7 2017..+0.3......+0.6....+1.4 2016..+0.5......+0.9....+1.4 2015...-0.4......-0.2.....-0.9 2014...+0.4.....+1.1....+0.3 2013...+0.9.....+1.3...+1.8 2012.....0.0.....-0.4....+0.7 2011...+2.1.....+0.9...+0.5 2010...+3.8....+3.3....+3.8

I got the gust front here in SW Suffolk also. Rapid increase in winds to around 50-55 mph with numerous broken branches.There was even a large tree uprooted nearby pulling down power lines. The brief downpour arrived after the winds subsided.