bluewave

It will be interesting to see what happens. Research suggests that these disruptions will become more common as the climate continues to warm. A meteorologist on twitter wondered if this particular event was related to the record +IOD. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6306/1424 One of the most repeatable phenomena seen in the atmosphere, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) between prevailing eastward and westward wind jets in the equatorial stratosphere (approximately 16 to 50 kilometers altitude), was unexpectedly disrupted in February 2016. An unprecedented westward jet formed within the eastward phase in the lower stratosphere and cannot be accounted for by the standard QBO paradigm based on vertical momentum transport. Instead, the primary cause was waves transporting momentum from the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the disruption, but analogous QBO disruptions are seen very occasionally in some climate simulations. A return to more typical QBO behavior within the next year is forecast, although the possibility of more frequent occurrences of similar disruptions is projected for a warming climate.

Warm spots around the region will see 90 degree potential today and tomorrow. Dew points will be on the increase Wednesday to go along with the heat. Scattered convection is possible on Thursday as the Christobal ET pulls a cold front through.

Rare Western U.S. derecho on Saturday.

The Christobal ET will result in a -5SD near record 980 mb low over the Western Great Lakes for a June. So the heat and high dew point surge will allow the warm spots to challenge 90 this week. Longer range, the Christobal wave break will reestablish the blocking and cooler temperatures here for mid-June.

There was some talk that there may have been a sensor issue at EWR in 1993. But I haven’t heard anything definitive. It still stands as the most 100 degree days there. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 Missing Count 1 1993 9 0 2 1949 8 0 3 1953 6 0 4 1988 5 0 - 1966 5 0 5 2011 4 0 - 2010 4 0 - 1955 4 0 - 1944 4 0

Yeah, the temperatures and snowfall measurements have been off since then. You can see the artificial declining summer high temperature trend since the thermometer got moved into the deep shade.

The actual Central Park temperature was probably close to 90 up on the castle where the instruments used to be. You can see how many times NYC,LGA, and EWR had similar highs before the instruments got moved under the trees in 1996.

Same here in SW Suffolk. This second batch of storms is more impressive that the first. Heavier rain and close CG strikes.

65 DBZ hailer near Old Westbury.

Looks like EWR may have just done it if the meso west site is correct. 15:07 90.0

So far it looks like both highs are at 89 degrees.

Maybe some small hail north of Fort Lee.

Maybe the warm spots can sneak in a first 90 today if the scattered convection waits until later in the afternoon. Already 77 at EWR and LGA. But we have seen clouds and convection interfere with our maximum temperature potential recently.

First look at the new Jan-May 1991-2020 climate normals.

The lingering spring blocking kept the strongest instability and heat just to our south this week. Areas around DC and Baltimore had record heat in the mid 90s. Looks like the Cristobal near record ET through the Great Lakes will help to maintain the blocking pattern into mid-June.

Be interesting to see if the Christobal ET can set the new record lowest pressure in Wisconsin for June. It could cause a wave breaking event that results in a cooler pattern here in mid-June.

Every 80+ degree day since the beginning of May has had either a T or measurable rain. Plenty of clouds and moisture accompanying our warm ups. Local sea breezes and onshore flow has also been a factor in reducing our high temperature potential.

June derecho climatology is to our south like in 2012. But the tracks shift more to the north as the season goes on. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0256.1

Areas west of the sea breeze in NJ could see 90 degrees getting further north tomorrow.

The big -NAO and 50/50 low kept the MCS and and warmest temperatures just to our south today.

Pretty impressive warm surge into SNJ ahead of the MCS.

The HRRR has a pretty good initialization of the storms in CPA. It races the storms ESE with the northern edge to around NYC.

It looks like the MCS the models have for tomorrow originates over the Upper Midwest tonight.

Yeah, it will depend on the amount clouds and wind direction at the time. But that could be another window to watch if we can get some sun and SW flow.