bluewave

First storms of the day popping now. The heaviest one looks close to the GW bridge.

This looks more like a Florida convective cloud streets pattern. Dewpoints in the 75-80 degree range will do it.

Highest dewpoint of the year now with JFK at 78 degrees.

It’s a good thing the low cloud deck marine layer in LB held off until after the 4th. It also looks like the dredging and beach extension created a very long sandbar. http://www.lbsurf.org/surf-camera-report/

4th 75 degree dewpoint day of the year for JFK. Only 6 more needed for the first 4 consecutive years streak in the double digits. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_tmpf&dir=aoa&thres=90&month=jul&year=2019&dpi=100&_fmt=js

It will be interesting to see if 2019 can hold the area lead over 2012 if the models are correct about the polar blocking weakening. https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/daily-data https://mobile.twitter.com/judah47/status/1147128282225287170

Saturday looks like it will be our highest dewpoints of the season so far. The dewpoints are already pushing 80 degrees to our south. So heavy downpours and localized flash flooding will be possible with any training convection. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=RWR&format=CI&version=1 EASTON MOSUNNY 82 79 89 CALM CAMBRIDGE PTSUNNY 82 79 89 SE5

We have had weaker versions of flash flooding piling up hail.

Tame high temperatures by early July 2010’s standards. The Newark high of 90 for the first 4 days is on the cool side for this decade. But the minimum of 77 was tied for the highest. So a continuation of the warm minimums being more impressive than the maximums. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jul 1 to Jul 4 Missing Count 2016-07-04 84 0 2015-07-04 85 0 2019-07-04 90 0 2017-07-04 90 0 2013-07-04 91 0 2011-07-04 92 0 2014-07-04 96 0 2018-07-04 98 0 2012-07-04 98 0 2010-07-04 101 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Min Temperature Jul 1 to Jul 4 Missing Count 2019-07-04 77 0 2018-07-04 77 0 2013-07-04 76 0 2014-07-04 73 0 2012-07-04 73 0 2011-07-04 72 0 2017-07-04 71 0 2016-07-04 70 0 2015-07-04 70 0 2010-07-04 67 0

A record 588+ dam ridge with record heat is ridiculous for Alaska. A similar magnitude record breaking ridge for us would be over 600 dam.

Only the 2nd time out of 13 July 2010’s dates that Newark didn’t reach 90 degrees following a low of 77 degrees. Another case of the warm minimums driving the daily warm departure. 87...+1 77.......+9 82.......+5 All July 2010’s 77 degree mins at Newark and the maxes 7-3-19...87/77 7-1-18...98/77 7-3-18...94/77 7-7-16...95/77 7-8-15...90/77 7-6-13...95/77 7-7-13...96/77 7-15-13...97/77 7-7-12...102/77 7-8-12....96/77 7-21-11...103/77 7.8-10.....87/77 7-18-10...96/77

Yeah, they call it a SPLASH event. But those drifts were caused by small hail being carried and piled by flash flood waters. No doubt that the amount of small hail that was very impressive. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/07/02/mexico-hail-storm-was-massive-wasnt-something-new/?utm_term=.e329decee808

Yeah, probably 6-7 million sq km for September extents. But nothing close to the historic drop in recent times. https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-piecing-together-arctic-sea-ice-history-1850 First, there is no point in the past 150 years where sea ice extent is as small as it has been in recent years. Second, the rate of sea ice retreat in recent years is also unprecedented in the historical record. And, third, the natural fluctuations in sea ice over multiple decades are generally smaller than the year-to-year variability. https://mobile.twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1146506078932230144?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet New study in @AMSJCLi to model #Arctic sea ice volume since 1901: "The sea ice decline over the 1979-2010 period is pan-Arctic and 6 times larger than the net decline during the 1901-40 period."

The one really deep SSW flow day with warm enough 850’s. But the soundings look extra juicy with 75+ dewpoints and PWATS over 2.00”. So clouds and convection may limit the max temperature potential.

The longer reconstructions further back in time make the last 40 years even more exceptional.

Ice has no agenda. It continues melt as the climate warms. The beauty of science is that you don’t have to believe in it for it to work.

Under this regime, it will continue to limit any major 95+ heat for EWR and LGA which has been the norm first week of July during the 2010’s.

The easterly flow fans will love the 12z Euro. It has an easterly component to the winds Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday.

2nd lowest June extent with the 2nd warmest Arctic temperatures. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2019/07/melt-season-shifts-into-high-gear/ https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/

Wild video of the Fire Island ferry crossing the Great South Bay In the severe storms on Sunday.

2019 continues to remain in the top 3 lowest extents right into early July. 7-2 2019....9.056 2012....8.971 2010....8.943

If Newark can hold the min of 77 through midnight, then today may be among the cooler July maxes for such a warm min this decade. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KEWR&table=1&num=168&banner=off All July 2010’s 77 degree mins at Newark and the maxes 7-1-18...98/77 7-3-18...94/77 7-7-16...95/77 7-8-15...90/77 7-6-13...95/77 7-7-13...96/77 7-15-13...97/77 7-7-12...102/77 7-8-12....96/77 7-21-11...103/77 7.8-10.....87/77 7-18-10...96/77

EPS has fairly modest 500 mb ridging for early July by 2010’s standards. Strong -NAO blocking with lingering high pressure near New England will result in more of a SE flow at times. So EWR and LGA will continue to avoid the major 95+ heat at least into the weekend. Major heat has been the norm during the first week of July this decade.

The consolation is we haven’t had very cold and dry winters in recent times. All our colder winters since 2000-2001 have been snowy. We were so dry in the 60’s, that a really cold winter 62-63 could turn out with below average snowfall.

This is the new record. I posted the link above. Another big -NAO drop coming up.