bluewave

Arkansas May have set a new state tropical cyclone rainfall record with Barry. https://mobile.twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1151136520864010242 Torrential rains in SW Arkansas overnight from #Barry have brought radar estimates above the Arkansas state rainfall record for a tropical cyclone. Caution advised tho- need a real gauge SE of Dierks to confirm! https://mobile.twitter.com/Maxar_Weather/status/1151137924827631616 If this verifies, AR would join TX (60.58" Harvey 2017), NC (35.93" Florence 2018), SC (23.63" Florence 2018), and HI (52.02" Lane 2018) in setting state rainfall records for tropical cyclones in the last few years https://mobile.twitter.com/WxZachary/status/1151120055721218050 More incredible flooding footage coming from Dierks, Arkansas. Follower Tashia Siracusa sent this from the local EZ-Mart

127K daily drop on NSIDC extent. Continuing to run very close to 2011 and 2012 as of July 15th. The area is around 2012 on this date. 7-15-19....7.676 7-15-12....7.705 7-15-11....7.609

The short range NAM under 36-48 and Euro under 72 seem to do best. But they have been too low on extreme dew point days. Their short range forecasts only had about a 75-76 dewpoint forecast a few weeks ago when JFK hit 79.

July 15th,1995 was the only time that I could find. Newark https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/nj/newark/KEWR/date/1995-7-15 2:00 PM 103 F 72 F 37 % WNW 13 mph 23 mph 29.8 in 0.0 in 1:00 PM 103 F 73 F 38 % WNW 14 mph 26 mph 29.8 in 0.0 in 2:00 PM 103 F 78 F 45 % WNW 17 mph 0 mph 29.8 in 0.0 in 3:00 PM 99 F 84 F 62 % W 16 mph 0 mph 29.8 in 0.0 in 4:00 PM 98 F 84 F 64 % WNW 14 mph 0 mph 29.8 in 0.0 in 5:00 PM 95 F 82 F 66 % WNW 10 mph 0 mph 29.8 in 0.0 in 6:00 PM 94 F 80 F 64 % WNW 14 mph 0 mph 29.8 in 0.0 in

I put together a list of dewpoint and heat index records around the area. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&month=all&var=max_feel&dpi=100&_fmt=png JFK dewpoint.....84....8-13-16.....heat index....115....7-5-99...7-22-11 EWR dewpoint...84....7-15-95.....heat index....129....7-15-95

Barry is finally producing the expected torrential rainfall totals. But it took longer to get going that models forecast. Looks like part of the theme for us with models increasing heavy rainfall potential today. Tropical PWATS make a run on 2.50” for the region. That would be close to the July record in our area should it verify. LOUISIANA... RAGLEY 4 S 23.43 OBERLIN 1 SSW 15.70

Long Island is already having one of its warmest Julys before the major heat arrives. Islip is currently in 3rd place. We are the warmest part of the region relative to the means with ISP at +4.3. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.6 0 2 2013 78.0 0 - 2010 78.0 0 3 2019 77.8 17 4 2011 77.6 0 5 1994 77.3 0 6 2016 76.8 0 7 1966 76.3 0 8 2012 76.2 0 9 2008 75.9 0 - 2006 75.9 0 - 1995 75.9 0 10 2015 75.8 0

80+ degree Julys have become the new normal around NYC this decade. Most years are in the top 10 warmest. LGA is in 8th place so far with Newark in 10th place. You have to get just south of DC for a 1981-2010 average July temperature of 80 degrees. Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 82.8 0 2 1999 81.9 0 3 2013 81.2 0 4 2016 81.1 0 5 1955 80.9 0 6 1966 80.8 0 7 2006 80.7 0 8 2019 80.6 17 - 1994 80.6 0 9 2012 80.4 0 - 2011 80.4 0 - 1952 80.4 0 10 2008 80.0 0 - 1993 80.0 0 11 2018 79.8 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.7 0 2 1993 82.5 0 3 2010 82.3 0 4 1994 81.9 0 5 2013 80.9 0 6 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 7 1955 80.5 0 8 1988 80.4 0 9 2002 80.0 0 10 2019 79.9 17 - 2016 79.9 0

https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1150489505419452417 20.5°C (69°F) only 800 km from the North Pole is something.

Westhampton is the big offshore flow heat leader so far at 93. Westhampton FAIR 93 63 36 W16

First 90 of the season so far for the South Shore. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=WANT

No problem. They keep a daily file on their site with the exact numbers. 2019 is still holding an area lead over the other years.

It’s right on the NSIDC site. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx We fell behind 2011 on the 13th. 7-13-11...7.765....#1 7-13-19...7.856....#2 7-13-12...7.917....#3

The higher dewpoints drive the more extreme heat index levels when combined with major heat. We were more fortunate with our 100 degree days from 2010 to 2013. They mostly occurred with dewpoints remaining under 70 degrees. So at least the real feel was less extreme than it could have been. We weren’t as lucky in the 1990’s. The July 15th 1995 100+ degree heat had dewpoints peaking in the low 80’s. So Newark set their record 127 degree heat index. JFK had a heat index around 115 on July 5 1999. Next week into the weekend may be our first 100 degree heat potential combined with 75+ dewpoints since then. Last few years we were able to avoid the 100 degree days with the extreme dewpoints surging to record levels and number of days. Eventually, both will combine again. We’ll have to wait and see if we can verify the two together next week into the weekend.

0z has the first surge of heat and humidity for Wednesday with 850 mb temps maxing our near 20C. Then The Barry remnants on Thursday. The highest heat and humidity arrive by next Friday or Saturday. 850’s increase to +24C with peak dewpoints above 80 degrees. This may be the first time we get a major heat so close to a remnant tropical system. So plenty of deep tropical humidity will arrive with the heat. There are also very high dewpoints over the corn belt with the recent record rains. So we will be talking about extreme heat index levels.

12z Euro has quite a surge of major heat and humidity after the Barry remnants on Thursday.

2019 maintains a narrow lead over 2012 and 2011 as of July 12th. More modest 70k daily drop as the dipole relaxes from near record recent levels. NSIDC extent 7-12-19....7.901 7-12-12....7.946 7-12-11....7.955

Extreme severe thunderstorm outbreak this week in Europe. It produced an extremely severe, devastating hailstorm over Pescara and the vicinity. Giant hailstones up to 15 cm (6″) were reported, tying the European record! Widespread major hail damage was reported in Pescara and the vicinity. Additionally, severe straight line winds and flash flooding were reported in multiple locations. https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2564537113769374&id=1377757209114043&__tn__=-R http://www.severe-weather.eu/recent-events/extremely-severe-thunderstorm-hits-pescara-central-italy-july-10th-2019/ https://www.essl.org/cms/severe-weather-outbreak-of-6-10-july-2019/

Yesterday was the 5th day with the dewpoint reaching 75 degrees this year at JFK. Only 5 more needed for the first consecutive 4 years with 10 or more days. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2019&dpi=100&_fmt=js

Finally got the slowdown in the rate of daily losses as the dipole pattern relaxes a bit. 2019 is holding on to a very small NSIDC extent lead over 2012. Area also very close to 2012. 7-12-19.....7.971 7-12-12.....8.032

7th latest date since 1980 that Newark hasn’t had any major 95 degree or higher major heat. It has been a challenge with the continuing record longest -NAO, clouds, rain, and onshore flow. Newark warmest temperature YTD is 93 degrees. The warmer minimum temperatures continue to lead the departures. July so far at at Newark Max T...+1.9 Min T....+3.4 Avg......+2.6 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 1985 08-14 (1985) 96 08-15 (1985) 97 0 2009 08-10 (2009) 95 08-17 (2009) 95 6 1998 07-21 (1998) 95 07-22 (1998) 98 0 2015 07-19 (2015) 98 09-08 (2015) 98 50 1982 07-17 (1982) 95 07-26 (1982) 95 8 1980 07-16 (1980) 96 09-02 (1980) 98 47 1990 07-04 (1990) 97 07-09 (1990) 96 4 2014 07-01 (2014) 95 09-06 (2014) 95 66

Updated for 3.10 in Oakland, NJ. Oakland 3.10 800 PM 7/11 CWOP

https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_phi/status/1149431591531212800 At 5:15 PM EDT, 1 E Earl TWP [Berks Co, PA] TRAINED SPOTTER reports HEAVY RAIN of 4.58 INCH. WIDESPREAD FLOODING ALSO REPORTED. https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_phi/status/1149435946468642816 At 5:26 PM EDT, Amity Gardens [Berks Co, PA] FIRE DEPT/RESCUE reports FLASH FLOOD. RESIDENCE WITH 5 FEET OF WATER IN BASEMENT. https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_phi/status/1149435377670770688 At 5:20 PM EDT, 2 S Douglass TWP [Berks Co, PA] FIRE DEPT/RESCUE reports FLASH FLOOD. VEHICLE STRANDED IN FLOOD WATERS NEAR INTERSECTION OF GRIST MILL RD AND LOCUST DR WITH A RESCUE OF TWO PEOPLE. VEHICLE WAS LATER CARRIED AWAY BY FLOOD WATER.

The one new constant is that heavy rains beat expectations where the highest totals occur. These extreme rainfall events are almost coming too fast to keep track of. Just a few of the most recent events. https://mobile.twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1148967598056509440 https://mobile.twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1148959568602509312 https://www.theindependent.com/news/local/heavy-rain-brings-back-flooding-worries-in-central-nebraska/article_4e0c6e72-a2af-11e9-9f0b-0b2d31436be0.html https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_pbz/status/1149416944770043904

Radar estimate of 2.50 inches of rain with the flood warned cell near Bloomfield. https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=okx&wwa=flash flood warning