bluewave

The Virginia and lower Delmarva July climate has effectively shifted north to the NYC area during this decade. Numerous recent Julys with an 80 or above average temperature at LGA. Record number of 75+ dewpoint days at JFK typical for areas well to our south. Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 82.8 0 2 1999 81.9 0 3 2013 81.2 0 4 2019 81.1 4 - 2016 81.1 0 5 1955 80.9 0 6 1966 80.8 0 7 2006 80.7 0 8 1994 80.6 0 9 2012 80.4 0 - 2011 80.4 0 - 1952 80.4 0 10 2008 80.0 0 - 1993 80.0 0

It may also struggle under extreme blocking and dipole regimes like we are seeing this year. Its biggest miss or underestimation of melt from a June forecast was in 2015. July 2015 experienced the strongest blocking and dipole pattern during the 2013 to 2018 era. June 2015 CPOM forecast September average extent......5.10....Verification.......4.63 This was the most impressive piece of information from the statistical model that CPOM uses for their forecasts. The simulated melt pond fraction in June 2019 has been higher then in any June before.

Your area continues to be near the heaviest rainfall zone during the last 30 days.

The dolphins have been putting on quite a show off Sliver Point in Atlantic Beach.

Most of the current research seems to be focused on the wavier jet stream and stuck weather patterns with continued warming. There was an interesting paper out right before the big -NAO drop in 2009. It linked bigger NAO swings to warmer conditions. The paper has done very well last 10 years with the periods of all-time record negative and positive phases. https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-01/whoi-sls011309.php

No let up in sight for this record breaking -NAO. Looks like Greenland will experience their highest 500 mb heights on record for this time of year. So this could eventually mean a return to stormier conditions.

The record European heatwave made it to the edge of the Arctic circle today. https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1154824807365664768 Hot in Sweden: 34.8°C (95°F) today in Markusvinsa (66.7°N), just north of the Arctic circle!

The record -NAO reversed the entire Atlantic SST pattern. The cold pool that had been dominating the North Atlantic south of Greenland rapidly shifted to near record warm. Notice how much different the Atlantic is from this time last year.

The monthly minimum temperatures were among the warmest ever recorded during the month of July. All of our stations were 1st or 2nd place finishes. Temperatures couldn’t fall very much with the record dewpoints and heat. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2019 66 6 - 1994 66 0 - 1993 66 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2008 66 0 2 2019 65 6 - 1993 65 0 - 1970 65 0 - 1955 65 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTL AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2016 66 0 2 2019 65 6 - 2015 65 0 - 1970 65 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER COUNTY AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2019 61 6 - 2012 61 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2019 64 6 2 1994 63 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORI AP, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2019 64 6 - 1994 64 0

Where was this historic -NAO pattern during the winter? It’s getting ready to significantly drop again after setting the new record. The LGA 100 degree day coincided with a brief rise to positive along with the record breaking Pacific Northwest jet streak. Also notice how the far North Atlantic SST’s have rapidly risen to near record levels under this pattern. https://mobile.twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1153756526630318081 NAO+ anyone? After being 88 days in a negative phase, the North Atlantic Oscillation has turned today to positive. This beats the previous record by almost three weeks!

With JJA past the midpoint, our area was very close to the warmest temperature departures for the CONUS.

High end EF-1 tornado with estimated 110 winds ripped roof off Cape Cod motel. One of the most dramatic tornado videos from the Northeast. https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1154119467468595200/photo/1

Continuation of the July 2010’s above normal temperature departures 80% to 90% of the years. July......EWR....NYC...LGA 2019....+3.4....+3.2....+4.0...so far 2018....+0.8....+1.1.....+2.4 2017....-0.1.....+0.3.....+0.7 2016...+2.5.....+2.2.....+3.7 2015...+1.6.....+2.3.....+1.8 2014....-0.4.....-0.4.......-0.4 2013....+3.5...+3.3......+3.8 2012....+3.4...+2.3......+3.0 2011....+5.3...+3.7......+3.0 2010...+4.9....+4.8......+5.4 https://mobile.twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1126293596909367301

JFK just experienced a first for July heavy rain and heat. This was the 2nd heaviest 2 day rainfall on record for July. But all the other top 5 years were significantly cooler. Maximum 2-Day Total Precipitation for JFK INTL AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 3.69 1969-07-29 0 2 3.66 2019-07-23 0 3 3.51 1996-07-31 0 4 3.45 1997-07-25 0 5 3.42 2000-07-27 0 July 1969....75.0...-0.8....max...97 July 2019....79.1...+3.5...max...99 July 1996....72.2...-3.6....max...87 July 1997....74.6...-1.2....max...94 July 2000....72.4...-3.4....max...93

12z Euro has record breaking 500mb heights and surface pressures over the CAB for this time of year.

Radar indicated tornado with widespread damage as that cell crossed Cape Cod. https://mobile.twitter.com/ericfisher https://mobile.twitter.com/WeatherMatrix/status/1153702676707860481 https://mobile.twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1153701965580259328

We would probably need another extreme drought in our heat source region. This occurred in July 2011 when Newark made it to 108 with record drought in the Southern Plains.This year is the complete opposite with record soil moisture and rainfall continuing. So we get near all-time high dewpoints and heat indices instead of all-time maximum temperatures. But we could see an all-time record high minimum temperature under such a regime like the Boston just tied. The minimum temperature at Boston Sunday was 83 degrees. Not only was this the warmest minimum temperature for July 21st...it also tied for the warmest min temperature for ANY date. The older date was August 2, 1975. That day was also in a notable time of heat and humidity.

Numerous 3.00+ amounts with Syosset near the top at 3.94. Syosset 3.94 856 AM 7/23 Co-Op Observer

This may be our first July to reach 100 degrees with a major flash flood event so soon before and after. Past flash floods during 100 degree Julys usually happened after the heatwave was over. This one had flash floods a few days before and right after. Goes to show what an extreme high dewpoint and heavy precipitation pattern we have been in.

Heavy downpours here in SW Suffolk the last 30 minutes. Areas near JFK have picked up nearly an additional 1”in the last hour.

You got a great video clip. Some nice photos coming in from Long Beach on social media. https://m.facebook.com/project11561/photos/a.495223987240996/2252359804860730/?type=3

The worst of the storm missed just to my south over the barrier islands. Gilgo Beach https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=F3143&unit=0&timetype=GMT 17:46 76.0 68.6 70.9 78 11.0 21.0 WNW 29.74 29.75 0.0 0.13 0.10 N/A 17:31 76.0 67.9 70.4 76 12.0 30.0 NNW 29.74 29.75 0.0 0.13 0.10 N/A 17:16 80.0 69.7 72.7 71 35.0 65.0 WNW 29.69 29.70 0.0 0.06 0.03 N/A 17:01 81.0 71.9 74.5 74 19.0 23.0 SSW 29.66 29.67 9.0 0.06 0.03 N/A 1

Gilgo Beach gusting to 65 mph. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYBABYL18?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash

78 mph gust in Wilmington, DE with that bow echo moving ENE into NJ. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KILG