bluewave

You are good a parroting discredited think tank talking points.

Science says so confidently. Most of the talking points you have brought up in this thread have been debunked many times in the past.

Past climate eras before the industrial revolution were driven by natural variability. What we are experiencing now is a result of increasing co2 emissions. The present day record Arctic wildfire activity is just another sign.

Great Category 6 post: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Baked-Alaska-State-Endures-Warmest-Month-Record July 2019 was the warmest month on record for the state of Alaska, smashing the previous record by almost one full degree Fahrenheit and leaving numerous local records for hottest day and warmest month in the superheated dust. Records for statewide average temperatures date back to 1925 (with partial data since the late 1880s). Four of the top 10 warmest single months on record (all Julys) has been set in just the past four years. This past June was also the second warmest June on record for the state (following June 2004). Figure 1. July 2019 was the warmest single month on record for the state of Alaska,. surpassing the previous record for such (July 2004) by the largest margin ever observed. Four out of the top 10 warmest months on record have occurred in in just the past four years (July 2019, July 2018, July 2017, and July 2016). Image credit: Brian Brettschneider, from NCEI data. Some of the records set Anchorage made national news on July 4 when its official temperature at the International Airport peaked at 90° for the first time on record, smashing the previous all-time record of 85° measured on June 14, 1969. The early July heat in Anchorage was unlike anything the city has ever experienced in modern records. Daily high temperature records were broken on six consecutive days from Jul 3 through July 8 (including 85° readings on July 7 and 8, which would have been a tie for the all-time record in their own right). Just beforehand, June saw five daily record highs from June 23-29. So in the 15-day span of June 23-July 8 eleven days broke their daily heat records! July also had 11 daily high minimum records broken. The month of July was also the warmest single month on record for the city, with an average temperature of 65.3° crushing the previous warmest month record of 62.7° set in July 2016. In addition, the previous month was the warmest June on record for the city, with an average of 60.5° (previous record 59.5° in June 2015). It should also be noted that July was the 17th consecutive month in Anchorage with an above-normal average monthly temperature. Every single day in Anchorage from May 30 to at least August 7 (as of this writing) has been above normal. Figure 2. July 2019 was the warmest month on record for the city of Anchorage, mimicking the trend for the entire state. The 65.3° average temperature crushed the previous record of 62.7° (set in July 2016) by an astounding 2.6°F. June was also the warmest such month on record setting the stage for what is sure to be the warmest climatological summer (June-August) on record for the city. Image credit: Brian Brettschneider from NCEI data. It wasn’t just south-central Alaska that baked in July. Other important sites that also measured their warmest single month on record—shown below with the first year of the period of record (POR)—include: Gulkana: 62.4° (previous record 61.4° in July 2009), POR 1921- Homer: 58.5° (previous record 58.2° in August 2016), POR 1932- Iliamna: 63.2° (previous record 59.4° in July 2016 and August 2004), POR 1941- —June also set a monthly record at Iliamna, with a 57.3° average temperature. Kenai: 59.4° (previous record 59.0° in July 2016), POR 1899-1907, 1943- King Salmon: 61.2° (previous record 59.8° in July 1997) POR, 1917- (some years missing) Kodiak: 60.4° (previous record 60.3° in July 1936), POR 1931- Kotzebue: 63.8° (previous record 60.0° in July 2009) POR, 1929- —Kotzebue also observed its warmest June and warmest May on record. As of August 7, it has not had a single day averaging below normal since February 14! The last month with a below-normal temperature average was two years ago, in August 2017. McGrath: 64.0° (previous record 63.8° in July 2017), POR 1941- Northway: 62.4° (previous record 62.0° in July 2009), POR 1943- Talkeetna (Mt. McKinley area): 65.2° (previous record 64.2° in July 2008), POR 1918- Utqiagvik (Barrow): 48.3° (previous record 46.8° in August 1989), POR 1921- Yakutat: 59.6° (previous record 57.7° in August 2016), POR 1917- Numerous other sites with shorter POR’s also observed their warmest month on record. Figure 3. Every significant weather station in the entire state of Alaska saw much above normal average temperatures during July 2019, a rare feat for such a vast and geographically diverse area. Image credit: Brian Brettschneider from NOAA data. What is extraordinary about all the records is that the sites where they occurred are representative of a huge portion of what is a vast state. On July 5 the statewide absolute minimum temperature (out of 287 stations) was 42°. That is the warmest daily minimum on record for Alaska since at least 50 stations began collecting daily observations (around 1920). The average statewide temperature on July 6 was likely the highest for any day in any year since at least 1915. Figure 4. Alaska coves a huge amount of territory with its landmass being the equivalent of 21.3% of that of the contiguous U.S. This makes it fairly rare, at least during the summer, that the entire state would see above normal temperatures. Image credit: Alaska State Archives. Needless to say, it has been a hellish fire season for the state, with 2.4 million acres charred as of the end of July. It’s not just Alaska Unusual warmth has engulfed much of the world’s far northern latitudes this past month. In Greenland, the town of Narsarsuaq saw its temperature soar to 23.4°C (74.1°F) on August 1, not too far from the August monthly heat record for Greenland of 24.1°C (75.4°F) measured at Nuuk on August 26, 2003. The warmth has resulted in unprecedented ice melt, according to Danish officials (197 billion tons of ice melted in July with an additional 12.5 billion loss on August 1 alone, the greatest single-day loss on record). Reykjavik, Iceland had a July monthly average temperature of 13.5°C (56.2°F), some 2.7°C (4.8°F) above its July normal of 10.8°C (51.4°F). An unusually hot and dry summer in Siberia has resulted in massive wildfires that have engulfed an area the size of Maryland or Belgium (about 15,000 square miles or 10 million acres). Smoke from the fires has drifted as far east as western Canada. Temperatures in the burn area averaged as much as 8°C (14°F) above normal earlier in the summer. Figure 5. Massive wildfires continue to rage in the Krasnoyarsk Krai, Sakha Republic, and Zabaykalsky Krai regions of Siberia as of August 6. Some 2.6 million hectares (about 10 million acres or about 15,600 square miles—twice the size of Massachusetts) have been scorched so far, making it one of the largest fire complexes in modern history. Image credit: Avialesookhrana/TASS/Getty Images. At Alert, Canada, the most northerly land-based weather station and permanently inhabited place in the world (located at 82° 30’ latitude), the temperature reached 21.0°C (69.8°) on July 14, its warmest temperature ever observed. This was followed by a nighttime (July 14-15) minimum of 15.2°C (59.4°) an extraordinary figure for a site so close to the North Pole, although the sun shines 24 hours a day here this time of the year. And, of course, there was the extraordinary heat wave that affected Western and Northern Europe the last week of July. Portions of Scandinavia experienced their warmest temperatures on record, including the city of Helsinki, Finland, where the 33.3°C (91.9°F) measured on July 28 broke their all-time record. See the Category 6 posts for a comprehensive list of the many all-time records set on July 24-25 and July 26. KUDOS: Brian Brettschneider (climate researcher at the University of Alaska's International Arctic Research Center) for the graphics and many of the temperature records noted in this blog, and partial data back to the late 1880s, and Etienne Kapikian (Météo-France) for the Greenland temperature records. Christopher C. Burt Weather Historian

It only took the biggest -NAO drop of the summer for NYC to finally drop under 67 for the first time since July 1st. The 39 day streak was the 4th longest. Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 67 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 46 2005-08-24 2 44 1988-08-18 3 42 2015-08-27 4 39 2019-08-09

Large 131k daily drop on NSIDC extent. So 2019 is only 171k behind 2012. We are past the record breaking 2012 fall during the Great Arctic Cyclone. 2019 needs a 119k daily decline rate next two days to pull back even with 2012 by the 11th. The NSIDC charts use a five-day trailing average. The daily extent figures are found in the spreadsheet section under the chart. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/ NSIDC extent    Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead 8-6......5.632......5.510......+122k lead 8-7......5.467......5.388......+79k lead 8-8......5.256.....5.390......-134k behind 8-9......5.088......5.259......-171k behind 8-10....5.118 8-11....5.021

Islip finally dipped to 61 degrees. So they tied the record for minimum temperatures remaining at or above 63 degrees. Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 63 for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 46 2019-08-09 - 46 1988-08-18 2 42 1994-08-04 3 33 1980-08-16 4 32 2013-07-24 - 32 2006-08-08 5 31 1967-08-07

Really impressive to get two consecutive years with so many measurable rainfall days through August 9th. The only rainfall extreme that hasn’t occurred for us yet is a 10”+ day. We saw this in August 2014 at Islip and Long Beach in August 2011. But there is still time for something like that to happen with the right set up during this run. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Jan 1 to Aug 9 Missing Count 1 2018-08-09 98 0 - 1950-08-09 98 0 2 2019-08-09 97 0 3 1916-08-09 96 0 4 2003-08-09 95 0 - 1938-08-09 95 0 5 2008-08-09 93 0 - 1996-08-09 93 0

We haven’t missed an opportunity for flash flooding or severe since July 11th. Parts of the area are close to 10” over the last 30 days. It will all come down to where the warm front stalls and waves of low pressure track next week. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 11 to Aug 8 Missing Count 1 1988-08-08 9.95 0 2 2019-08-08 9.34 0 3 2003-08-08 9.20 0 4 1948-08-08 8.69 0 5 1961-08-08 8.68 0

NSIDC extent held steady on August 8th. 2019 has fallen behind 2012 by 134 k during the period of the Great Arctic Cyclone. 2019 needs an average daily loss rate of 123k next few days to hold even with 2012 by the 11th. NSIDC extent    Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead 8-6......5.632......5.510......+122k lead 8-7......5.467......5.388......+79k lead  8-8......5.256.....5.390......-134k behind 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118  8-11....5.021

Next organized storm system Tuesday into Wednesday. It may come with a few waves of low pressure. Good temperature gradient along the stalled out warm front. Mid 90’s to near100 to our south. Areas right under the track could get another good soaker plus severe. So the exact track will be important.

I am seeing that gorgeous light show to my west. The lightning is really well defined with the lack of haze.

It has been an amazing dewpoint surge since 2016. This was the first July with an average dewpoint over 70 degrees for JFK. Last year was the first such occurrence in August.

Updated for a 3.21 max in Livingston TWP, NJ. 2 NNE LIVINGSTON TWP 3.21 700 AM 8/08 COCORAHS

Large 122k daily drop in NSIDC extent . 2019 needs an average daily decline rate of 92k next 4 days to remain even with 2012 by the 11th. NSIDC extent    Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead 8-6......5.632......5.510......+122k lead 8-7......5.467......5.388......+79k lead  8-8......5.256 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118  8-11....5.021

Yesterday was the 18th day this year with a 75 degree or higher dewpoint at JFK. First time ever with 4 consecutive years of 17 or more days. JFK also set a new daily rainfall record for 8-7 of an 1 inch. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2019&dpi=100&_fmt=js

1.63” now for the day in Wantagh. http://www.nysmesonet.org/weather/meteogram#network=nysm&stid=want 6 hours: 1.43″ 1 day: 1.63″

Heaviest downpour here along the South Shore since July 23rd. Wantagh at .75 on the day so far.

2019 needs an average NSIDC daily decline rate of 98k next 5 days to be even with 2012 on the 11th. NSIDC extent   Date....2012......2019....2019 difference 8-4......5.990.... .5.762.....+228k lead 8-5......5.768......5.596.....+172k lead 8-6......5.632......5.511......+121k lead 8-7......5.467 8-8......5.256 8-9......5.088 8-10....5.118 8-11....5.021

2014 to 2018 was the first time NYC went 5 consecutive summers with no June or July 50’s. LGA has a 11 year streak going. White Plains has a 17 year streak continuing above 50 degrees. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Jul 1 to Aug 31 Missing Count 2018-08-31 62 0 2017-08-31 60 0 2016-08-31 61 0 2015-08-31 63 0 2014-08-31 61 0 2013-08-31 59 0 Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Jul 1 to Aug 31 Missing Count 2018-08-31 64 0 2017-08-31 61 0 2016-08-31 66 0 2015-08-31 64 0 2014-08-31 63 0 2013-08-31 62 0 2012-08-31 63 0 2011-08-31 62 0 2010-08-31 64 0 2009-08-31 61 0 2008-08-31 60 0 2007-08-31 58 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER COUNTY AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Jul 1 to Aug 31 Missing Count 2018-08-31 53 0 2017-08-31 56 0 2016-08-31 54 0 2015-08-31 57 1 2014-08-31 54 1 2013-08-31 53 0 2012-08-31 54 0 2011-08-31 56 1 2010-08-31 53 1 2009-08-31 54 0 2008-08-31 51 0 2007-08-31 52 0 2006-08-31 54 0 2005-08-31 57 0 2004-08-31 54 0 2003-08-31 53 0 2002-08-31 53 0 2001-08-31 49 0

One of the more impressive cloud to water lightning displays south of Jones Beach this summer.

Serious flash flooding in Baltimore. https://mobile.twitter.com/SoniaDasgupta?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author FLOODING IN BALTIMORE | Numerous WJZ viewers sent in videos and photos of cars up to their hoods in water. One sent a photo of a man on the roof of a vehicle needing to be rescued

There’s a new definition of a summer cool down during the 2010’s. EWR, LGA, JFK, and NYC have a few days with highs in the 80’s and lows in the 60’s. Less warm is the new cool.

This is one of those days when the ocean temperature is warmer that the air temperature at the beach. SST’s continue in the upper 70’s without any August major heat. More fuel for high dewpoints and heavy rains around the region. STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1850 75 77 170/ 8/ 10 1011.0 2/ 9 20 S Fire Island 1850 75 78 190/ 2/ 4 1011.3 2/ 9 Great South Bay 1815 75 80 CALM / 4 N/A 23 SSW Montauk P 1850 72 10/ 8/ 10 1011.5 3/ 8 15 E Barnegat Li 1830 79 N/A 2/18 Hudson Canyon 1850 78 79 80/ 4/ 6 1011.0 3/ 8 Jones Beach N/A 75 N/A N/A S6 N/A Breezy Point N/A 75 N/A N/A S10 N/A

US Hurricane landfalls have been more backloaded since 2014. More October landfalls than JJA combined since 2014.The Joaquin 1000 year floods trough interaction in 2015 isn’t included since there was no landfall. But plenty of flood damage. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E23.html 2010 None 2011 Aug NC, 1 1 952 75 Irene 2012 Aug LA, 1 1 966 70 Isaac 2012 Oct * NY, 1 1 942 65 Sandy 2013 None 2014 Jul NC, 2 2 973 85 Arthur 2015 None 2016 Sep FL, NW1 1 981 70 Hermine 2016 Oct * FL, NE2; GA, 1; SC, 1; NC, 1 2 963 85 Matthew 2017 Aug TX,S 4 4 937 115 Harvey 2017 Sep FL,SW 4,SE 1 4 931 115 Irma 2017 Oct LA 1, MS 1 1 983 65 Nate 2018 Sep NC 1 1 956 80 Florence 2018 Oct FL, NW 5; I-GA 2 5 919 140 Michael