bluewave

Yeah, Boston has averaged 26.1” for this decade so far which was what NYC used to average. Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.9 T 5.2 12.2 7.0 0.6 0.2 26.1 2019-2020 0.0 T 11.5 3.1 0.5 T 0.7 15.8 2020-2021 4.3 T 13.0 5.8 15.3 0.1 0.1 38.6 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.4 36.2 15.3 2.1 T 54.0 2022-2023 0.0 T 1.0 6.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 12.4 2023-2024 0.0 T 0.2 9.0 0.5 T 0.1 9.8

I posted it to show how remarkably warm the North American continent will be. Probably near record low snow cover extent for this time of year with Hudson Bay not frozen over yet. I agree about that big high east of New England should keep us in an onshore flow from the first 3-4 days of the period. So we’ll probably have to wait closer to New Years’s Eve to get over 50°. But the greater story is NYC could go the 26th to 31st without dropping below freezing for the 2nd year in a row.

If people discussing the actual weather patterns make you that angry maybe you need some time off from this place.

Even in this era of warm extremes the last week of December really stands out for the North American continent. https://bsky.app/profile/climatologist49.bsky.social/post/3ldhqhn4gxs2a Today's CPC 8-14 Day Outlook is the most above normal (reddest) one they have issued (2008-present) for the Lower 48. The average location in the Lower 48 has a 75.9% chance of being above normal, a 19.9% chance of being near normal, and a 4.2% chance of being below normal for the Dec 24-30 period.

This is what I said yesterday. The actual forcing has been spread out across the entire Pacific. The hovmollers have been working better than the RMMs. So the patterns haven’t been matching the single MJO phase composites. We can see the actual forcing forecast for January starts out near South America and then shifts back to the Maritime Continent. More of a competing influence pattern rather than one specific MJO phase composite. This is why there will probably be plenty of volatility in the model forecasts next few weeks for the January pattern. We may just have to be patient and watch what actually unfolds due to the varying influences as the models could really struggle more than usual.

High so far of 58° in NYC. So a record breaking 14 consecutive years reaching 55° or warmer between 12-17 and 12-25. A remarkably consistent pattern for this time of year.

I hear what you are saying. The footprint on these Arctic outbreaks when Rockford dropped to -25° and colder has been shrinking since the 1980s. While you can still reach those absolute coldest temperatures, the size and duration of the Arctic outbreaks has greatly declined. You can see how much more extensive the cold was during Januaries before this most recent 2019 event. But being near the center of the continent is a plus for you since the cold has been having difficulty expanding to the East Coast when you get record cold vs the past. Januaries with Rockford -25° and colder days since the 1980s

At least your part of the country was able to set a new all-time record coldest temperature as recently as 18-19 with one of your snowiest winters. But it was probably shorter than you would have liked due to the much warmer start to the month so the month overall was just -3.7 .Dropping to -31° with 16” on the ground is an impressive feat. Climatological Data for Rockford Area, IL (ThreadEx) - January 2019 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 788 333 - - 1449 0 2.27 24.9 - Average 25.4 10.7 18.1 -3.7 - - - - 5.9 Normal 29.1 14.5 21.8 - 1339 0 1.60 10.9 2019-01-01 32 23 27.5 4.2 37 0 T T 0 2019-01-02 28 22 25.0 1.9 40 0 T T 0 2019-01-03 39 20 29.5 6.5 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 2019-01-04 46 26 36.0 13.2 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2019-01-05 50 26 38.0 15.3 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2019-01-06 40 26 33.0 10.5 32 0 T 0.0 0 2019-01-07 51 37 44.0 21.6 21 0 0.53 0.0 0 2019-01-08 44 21 32.5 10.3 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2019-01-09 23 16 19.5 -2.6 45 0 T T 0 2019-01-10 27 14 20.5 -1.5 44 0 0.00 0.0 0 2019-01-11 29 17 23.0 1.2 42 0 0.00 0.0 0 2019-01-12 31 29 30.0 8.3 35 0 0.28 3.8 0 2019-01-13 32 26 29.0 7.4 36 0 0.01 0.2 4 2019-01-14 26 23 24.5 3.0 40 0 0.00 0.0 4 2019-01-15 33 24 28.5 7.0 36 0 T T 4 2019-01-16 34 26 30.0 8.6 35 0 T 0.0 3 2019-01-17 33 27 30.0 8.7 35 0 T T 3 2019-01-18 30 23 26.5 5.2 38 0 0.17 2.3 2 2019-01-19 24 6 15.0 -6.2 50 0 0.13 4.0 8 2019-01-20 10 -2 4.0 -17.2 61 0 0.00 0.0 8 2019-01-21 14 -7 3.5 -17.7 61 0 0.00 0.0 8 2019-01-22 31 13 22.0 0.8 43 0 0.24 1.5 7 2019-01-23 29 9 19.0 -2.2 46 0 0.23 4.2 11 2019-01-24 22 -2 10.0 -11.2 55 0 T 0.2 13 2019-01-25 1 -11 -5.0 -26.3 70 0 0.05 0.6 12 2019-01-26 5 -21 -8.0 -29.3 73 0 0.07 1.5 14 2019-01-27 8 -15 -3.5 -24.9 68 0 0.10 1.3 14 2019-01-28 21 9 15.0 -6.5 50 0 0.38 4.0 17 2019-01-29 10 -16 -3.0 -24.6 68 0 T 0.2 17 2019-01-30 -13 -25 -19.0 -40.7 84 0 0.00 0.0 17 2019-01-31 -2 -31 -16.5 -38.3 81 0 0.08 1.1 16

Daily record lows continuing by a pretty wide margin. https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3ldito5gmj22w Day #7 of setting a record daily low for Arctic sea-ice extent. Dec. 16, 2024: 435,000 km² below the previous daily record. December 17, 2024 at 7:26 A

More competition between La Niña and El Niño influences. Coldest Nino 3.4 dailies of the year so far. Plus another EPAC WWB last week of December. So we can understand why the models really struggle beyond 15 days. The thing to watch will be if that WPAC area of westerlies drifts eastward later in the winter and spring. That’s the type of thing which could initiate an oceanic kelvin wave leading to El Niño. If that doesn’t happen then the La Niña cooling next winter could be even stronger than we are seeing now. So an interesting period coming up for clues what the next few years may look like.

This has been one of the least snowy starts to a new decade that we have seen through the halfway point. The one thing that sets this one apart is that it’s easily the warmest. So for both warmth and lack of snow this is in 1st place so far. While we can see the 1950s decades was off to a similarly slow start, this decade so far is warmer. The early 50s were drier so there was less precipitation contributing to the lower totals. We have been wetter in the 2020s so a greater percentage of our total precipitation is falling as rain than in the 1950s. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 T 2.6 4.4 7.1 0.1 T 14.2 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 7.5 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.6 0.9 8.3 12.7 16.6 1.7 T 40.8 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T T 8.8 8.7 8.3 2.5 1.0 29.3 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 0.9 3.3 5.0 9.8 6.5 0.1 25.8 1989-1990 0.0 4.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 3.1 0.6 13.4 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 7.2 8.4 9.1 0.2 0.0 24.9 1991-1992 0.0 T 0.7 1.5 1.0 9.4 T 12.6 1992-1993 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 10.7 11.9 0.0 24.5 1993-1994 0.0 T 6.9 12.0 26.4 8.1 0.0 53.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T T 2.6 7.1 5.0 5.2 2.1 21.9 1979-1980 T 0.0 3.5 2.0 2.7 4.6 T 12.8 1980-1981 0.0 T 2.8 8.0 T 8.6 0.0 19.4 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.8 0.4 0.7 9.6 24.6 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.9 21.5 T 0.8 27.2 1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T T 2.4 6.4 6.9 2.2 0.1 18.1 1969-1970 0.0 T 6.8 8.4 6.4 4.0 T 25.6 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.4 11.4 T 1.3 0.4 15.5 1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9 1972-1973 T T T 1.8 0.8 0.2 T 2.8 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 2.8 7.8 9.4 3.2 0.3 23.5 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T 0.1 11.6 7.7 9.5 5.7 T 34.6 1959-1960 0.0 0.5 15.8 2.5 1.9 18.5 0.0 39.2 1960-1961 T 0.0 18.6 16.7 18.2 1.2 T 54.7 1961-1962 0.0 T 7.7 0.6 9.6 0.2 T 18.1 1962-1963 T T 4.5 5.3 3.7 2.8 T 16.3 1963-1964 0.0 T 11.3 13.3 14.1 6.0 T 44.7 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.9 2.8 2.5 0.4 14.8 1949-1950 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 8.5 1.4 1.9 14.0 1950-1951 0.0 T 3.8 0.9 1.9 2.7 0.0 9.3 1951-1952 0.0 T 3.3 6.2 2.8 7.4 0.0 19.7 1952-1953 0.5 1.7 7.5 4.1 0.4 0.9 T 15.1 1953-1954 0.0 2.2 T 12.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 15.8 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 40.9 36.9 38.6 38.8 2019-2020 38.3 39.1 40.1 39.2 2020-2021 39.2 34.8 34.2 36.1 2021-2022 43.8 30.3 37.3 37.1 2022-2023 38.5 43.5 41.1 41.0 2023-2024 44.6 37.0 40.1 40.6 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 38.4 32.6 35.1 35.4 2009-2010 35.9 32.5 33.1 33.8 2010-2011 32.8 29.7 36.0 32.8 2011-2012 43.3 37.3 40.9 40.5 2012-2013 41.5 35.1 33.9 36.8 2013-2014 38.5 28.6 31.6 32.9 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 37.7 31.4 35.8 35.0 1999-2000 39.9 31.3 37.3 36.2 2000-2001 31.1 33.6 35.9 33.5 2001-2002 44.1 39.9 40.6 41.5 2002-2003 36.0 27.5 30.1 31.2 2003-2004 37.6 24.7 35.0 32.4 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 36.6 34.8 35.5 35.6 1989-1990 25.9 41.4 39.7 35.7 1990-1991 42.6 34.9 39.9 39.1 1991-1992 39.6 35.7 36.3 37.2 1992-1993 37.9 36.3 30.8 35.0 1993-1994 37.3 25.5 30.6 31.1 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 37.6 30.1 36.6 34.8 1979-1980 41.1 33.7 31.4 35.4 1980-1981 32.4 26.2 39.3 32.6 1981-1982 36.5 26.1 35.3 32.6 1982-1983 42.7 34.5 36.4 37.9 1983-1984 35.2 29.9 40.6 35.2 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 37.2 31.6 32.7 33.8 1969-1970 33.4 25.1 33.0 30.5 1970-1971 34.4 26.9 35.1 32.1 1971-1972 40.8 35.0 31.4 35.7 1972-1973 38.5 35.5 32.5 35.5 1973-1974 39.0 35.2 31.7 35.3 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 33.5 32.0 33.1 32.9 1959-1960 38.4 33.9 36.3 36.2 1960-1961 30.9 27.7 36.6 31.7 1961-1962 35.5 32.6 31.8 33.3 1962-1963 31.5 30.1 28.2 29.9 1963-1964 31.2 35.6 32.8 33.2 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 38.6 36.6 36.6 37.3 1949-1950 39.4 41.8 31.6 37.6 1950-1951 34.9 36.4 36.9 36.1 1951-1952 39.1 36.2 36.2 37.2 1952-1953 38.4 37.6 38.4 38.1 1953-1954 41.3 30.8 40.1 37.4 Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 5.13 3.64 2.85 4.39 16.00 2019-2020 7.09 1.93 2.54 3.78 15.34 2020-2021 4.61 2.31 5.13 3.41 15.46 2021-2022 1.39 4.29 3.23 2.39 11.30 2022-2023 5.83 4.38 1.28 3.32 14.81 2023-2024 6.71 5.28 2.05 9.06 23.10 Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 3.88 3.33 2.61 4.87 14.70 1949-1950 2.28 2.26 4.44 2.73 11.71 1950-1951 4.32 3.31 3.05 5.62 16.30 1951-1952 4.28 4.55 1.38 4.00 14.21 1952-1953 4.12 4.90 2.37 8.76 20.15 1953-1954 4.42 1.65 1.81 3.25 11.13

I think around NYC Metro it’s mostly a result of the faster Pacific Northern Stream Jet than forecast which is too NS dominant. The poor wave spacing is a natural result of this process. Bad luck is a one time occurrence. These storm track issues have been occurring since 18-19 and are part of the recent multiyear pattern. One common storm track in recent years is the Great Lakes cutter. We can look at the long range on the 500mb charts and see there is a trough in the East forecast and many get excited. But once we get closer to forecast time it turns out the trough and cold arrives after the cutter. So we get 50s and rain followed by colder weather. Then the 2nd type track in this regime is the coastal hugger which also an issue for P-Types along the coast. Then the 3rd type of track we have been seeing is the northern stream low suppressing the southern stream so we get a little too warm near the coast or the bulk of the moisture with the southern stream goes south.

Because weather analysis and forecasting is an important tool which is a great benefit to society especially with weather extremes increasing. It makes no sense to just to shop for weather information which matches what you want to hear. I can’t understand what benefit is gained by seeking out forecasts which will never verify just because they match an outcome you enjoy. Then when they don’t happen we hear the chorus of all models and forecasts are terrible and can’t believe they made that forecast and people believed it. But if you go back and read all the data you will see the outcome was usually telegraphed very well if you followed the best information. My favorite outcomes from the past were great snowstorms which were well forecast or those missed by the models that greatly overperformed. Not forecasts for giant snowstorms which never panned out.

The most interesting thing about Chicago weather history is that it’s one of the few major cities of the world that the coldest temperatures on record since the 1870s occurred in the 1980s. The good thing about this is that the urbanization and population of Chicago expanded significantly from the 1870s to 1980s. So this shows that cities can still get cold if the air mass is cold enough regardless of UHI expanding. This is why the lack of all-time coldest temperatures in the East Coast Cities since before the 1940s can’t be blamed on UHI. It’s that the coldest air masses over time are increasingly getting limited to the more central parts of the continent away from the warming ocean influences and other factors. https://www.chicagoinmaps.com/growth.html Time Series Summary for Chicago Area, IL (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1984-1985 -27 0 2 1981-1982 -26 0 3 1983-1984 -25 0 4 2018-2019 -23 0 - 1872-1873 -23 0 5 1993-1994 -21 0 - 1898-1899 -21 0 6 1896-1897 -20 0 - 1874-1875 -20 0

The best the ensembles can realistically do is the first two weeks. Beyond that you will usually see a big spread between the EPS, CFS, JMA, and GEFS weeklies. I don’t know of any model scores which rank the models from 3 to 6 weeks out. So it’s hard to have good data on which models may have some useful hints beyond 15 days. Many times the model errors week 2 get magnified making the following weeks change quite a bit based on where the errors verified in the week 2 time frame. So for the coming January forecasts we will probably have to wait until we get into the first week like we did in December. Then we get the EPS monthly release on the 5th. Sometimes when the MJO becomes the main driver we can try to estimate where the models erred in past similar phases. But this year the MJO has been more a contributor than the main driver. Other features like random AAM fluctuations add more complexity to the forecast. Not to mention the competing La Niña and El Niño influences running concurrently this winter so far. The one constant this winter so far has been stronger Pacific Jet than forecast which has been allowing the ridge out West to drift east from time to time. Very dominant Northern Stream influence favoring the Great Lakes for snow. Past instances of December with such a strong ridge near the West Coast featured much weaker Pacific Jets allowing the ridge to stay anchored near the West. Several of these Decembers had big KU events around NYC. Plus much colder average temperatures around NYC than we have seen this year. So this month is a warmer and less snowy variation from similar past instances.

The NS has definitely been playing the spoiler more often than not since 2018-2019. From 2010 to 2018 it would usually relax enough allowing the southern stream more influence for great benchmark tracks. Now the northern stream either warms things too much or suppresses the southern stream. If this was before 2018-2019, then we would expect the guidance to converge on an advisory or warning level event for NYC next few days as we got closer. But the 12z guidance has a lot of moving parts with varying NS low positions and differing southern stream locations. Seems like a lot has to go right for more than a light event near NYC and the coast.

The maps speak for themselves. The base of the trough is west of Chicago with a ridge along the West and East Coasts. It’s only one forecast out of many. So we are still in take a grain of salt mode. While that is true, the only bias that matters in this business is getting the pattern right. If some people are bothered by pointing out the fact that the Northeast has had over 50 top 10 warmest months and only 1 top 10 coldest since 2010, then they should probably explore new locations to live which are much colder. Instead a few bad actors come in here and take that anger out on people that are just pointing out the obvious.

Don’t blame the messenger. Here is the link to the charts. All the cold is up in Canada on the temp charts with higher heights along the East Coast and trough axis just west of Chicago. The warmest departures are near the West and Carolinas. That being said, all the models have varying solutions due to the competing La Niña and El Niño influences. So it’s anyone’s guess at this point which actual pattern wins out or be get some blend of all the varying solutions. https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php

You can see the ridge axis more clearly in this chart. It has more of a Niña-like look with the Aleutian Ridge and Southeast Ridge pattern. Whether it’s correct or the EPS wins out will probably come down to where the actual strongest forcing verifies. Probably too early to call for sure. But we can see the GEFS, EPS, JMA, and CFS with varying January solutions. Models really struggling with Niña-like and more Nino-like influences.

I think it’s just the opposite. Most people who started out in these forums back in the early days were winter cold and snow fans. What has changed over the years has been the actual winter patterns near the Northeast have shifted much warmer since the early 90s and especially since 15-16 along with a decline in snowfall near the East Coast areas around NYC Metro and other spots beginning in 18-19. So acknowledging this fact has lead to better forecasts. You mistake discussing the record warmth since the 15-16 super El Niño as advocating for this type of pattern. More harm is actually done by referencing past analogs from a colder era which have little chance in today’s climate. Most people that I know would rather know all the factors at play than give them an honest evaluation. People get very angry when they feel someone isn’t being honest with them. Most on these forums get more angry if they are promised a big winter and one doesn’t show up. But will be pleased if they actually do better than the forecast. So there is more risk in promising big and not delivering than under forecasting a great pattern. I wasn’t that surprised about the +PNA this month as I mentioned the possibility back in October with my mismatch and early indicator discussion. But I mentioned that other factors were at play. And at least in December so far we have had a much stronger northern branch of the Pacific Jet than past mismatch years with strong +PNA patterns. Hopefully, in January we can get the Western Ridge to stay put with a much weakened Pacific Jet leading to better snowfall potential along the East Coast. But if the jet can’t weaken enough and the ridge ends up near the East Coast after a pullback west, then it would be more of the same. I think people appreciate mentioning options when analyzing long range patterns which can be uncertain by nature.

This season so far has been a study in competing influences which we usually don’t see running at the same time. Past Decembers with such strong ridges out West were able to anchor the ridge axis closer to the West Coast. This December the stronger Pacific Jet has resulted in the ridge shifting further east. It may be that the combination of WPAC forcing and the strong -PDO gradient is leading to a stronger Pacific Jet influence. So we would want to see this jet influence shift in early January otherwise any ridge pullback to the west could be short lived again.

You are one of the only posters in this thread that has seemed more concerned about getting jabs in against perceived imaginary threats. Your history in this thread speaks for itself. Did you ever think that maybe there are a number of posters which left this forum due to posters like you? The only agenda that matters is getting the pattern correct.

The Euro hovmollers continue the split forcing into early January along with the GEFS. So the hope is that the EPAC forcing becomes more dominant and we get more of an El Niño influence. If we still have even a small amount of forcing in the WPAC ,then it could continue the competing influences with La Niña and a stronger northern branch like we have seen in December. I hear the disappointment with the pattern this month in your tone. But I think you are probably better than the gottcha persona you are trying to portray online.

The latest JMA splits the difference between the Niña-like WPAC forcing and EPAC Nino-like forcing in its latest run placing the mean trough axis in the Plains during January.

Elevation has been a big help with these marginal set ups since late November.