bluewave

The 12z Canadian also had a nice run showing 6”+ potential closer to the coast.

This is a great example of why we use the ensemble means at this range. The EPS AIFS has been very steady for days now with only gradual shifts from run to run. It hasn’t shown any big jumps from run to run like OPs. The OP runs should begin to converge over the next 24 hrs.

This is one of those rare times that the Northeast was colder than other areas instead of warmer. Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow Winter-to-date temperature departure from normal. Currently on track to be the 2nd warmest winter on record (1895-present).

Even though we rebounded back into the 40s since early February, the warmest departures have been missing miss the Northeast relative to other regions. So the Northeast continues to hold into the colder pocket compared to the rest of the CONUS. The forecast into early March looks like more of the same.

You picked a great week to go down there since you missed the rare Arctic outbreak earlier in the month. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxdEmS9gM1M

Good to see the EPS AIFS showing the growing storm potential. Not a bad signal from a day 5-6 AI ensemble. Let’s see this hold for another few days so we can pick up our first warning level event in a month.

Thread the needle is slang for getting a perfectly timed phase or storm separation between multiple systems. So I think this forecast qualifies. Would probably just use an ensemble blend at this point since OP runs day 5-6 usually change over time. Hence the you never want to be in the jackpot expression days 5-10. That being said, the storm signal is growing. But we’ll need a perfectly timed storm separation and phasing to get some of the higher end OP solutions. This can be a challenge so I will just go with the more conservative ensemble means until the specific details come into better focus. The highest scoring guidance this winter so far has been the EPS AIFS. But like all the other guidance it’s better under 72-120 hrs. So we still want to see the storm signal hold the closer in we get.

This would be our biggest rabbit out of hat event in years if we get the storm spacing and phasing to work out just right. The general storm signal continues to grow. But it’s tough to lock in details around day 5-6 when so much can change between now and then.

We have had smaller events like the 6z Euro presently shows for the 2nd system. But it’s rare to get a 12”+ like a few of the OP runs have been showing only 2 days after another system. That’s why I am going with an ensemble mean blend right now for the 2nd system. But since nothing is impossible, I am watching to see if the ensemble means move toward some of the more amped solutions in coming runs. Really volatile and delicate set up.

The OPs have been shifting around on the track and timing every 12 hrs. So we should just use an ensemble blend at this point and hold off on the details for a few days. It’s tough to get one really big storm when the systems are only 48hrs apart. But it’s not impossible. We will need some extra thread for this needle.

At this point we should probably stick to the ensembles like the EPS AIFS. Very tricky storm spacing since the systems are so close together. If we ever needed a perfect thread the needle to pull off a really big one this would be it. Looking at the individual OP runs gives new meaning to all over the place.

Florida's citrus industry, reeling from a 90% decline in production since 1997, is severely impacted by citrus greening (HLB) spread by the Asian citrus psyllid . The lack of hard freezes allows these insects to survive year-round, sustaining the bacteria that kills trees. Consequently, nearly 100% of Florida's groves are infected, with researchers testing genetically modified trees and, for now, relying on insecticide use. Key Impacts of Persistent Insect Populations: Constant Infestation: The Asian citrus psyllid, which transmits the Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus bacteria, thrives in warmer, milder winters, leading to year-round feeding on tender new leaf growth. Decimated Production: The inability to kill off the insect population has resulted in the lowest, or near-lowest, orange production in over a century, with 2021-2022 levels dropping to 12.6 million boxes from a peak of 250 million. Management Struggles: Because the psyllids remain active, growers are forced to use extensive chemical controls to mitigate, rather than eradicate, the disease. Research and Mitigation Efforts: Genetically Modified Trees: Researchers are developing trees that produce a protein, often derived from Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt), which can kill the psyllid at its early stages, limiting the population. CUPS: Citrus Under Protective Screen (CUPS) structures are being used to physically exclude the psyllid, allowing for high-quality production in protected environments. Nutrient Management: While no cure exists, nutrient-rich, systemic treatments are used to help trees live longer, even though they remain infected.

We can still have expanding crop yields on a global basis and also have increasing crop failures influenced by and related to climate change on a regional level. These regional events such as Florida losing 90% of their orange production can have a big impact on the regional economy. The risk in the coming decades is that these regional issues expand globally and eventually cut into the larger global food production. The natural world often gives us early warning signs on a smaller scale prior to large scale dislocations occurring later on. With a warming climate we don’t really know for sure what the global temperature threshold is for widespread crop failures. Florida's citrus industry faces an existential crisis driven by climate-enhanced disasters, causing orange production to plummet over 90% in two decades to its lowest levels in over a century . Key issues include the incurable citrus greening disease (HLB), exacerbated by rising temperatures and extreme weather, alongside devastating hurricanes, droughts, and severe urbanization. Citrus Greening Crisis: A bacterial disease (HLB), spread by the Asian citrus psyllid, has infected nearly all Florida groves, resulting in small, bitter fruit and tree death. Climate Change Amplification: Warmer temperatures have expanded the habitat for the psyllid, while changing weather patterns have brought more intense hurricanes (e.g., Ian, Milton) and severe droughts, which destroy trees already weakened by disease. Production Collapse: Citrus production fell from ~300 million boxes in the early 2000s to roughly 12-20 million in the 2024–2026 seasons. Industry Impact: The 2024-25 season was the least productive in over 100 years. Major growers like Alico Inc. are abandoning citrus, and acreage has dropped significantly,, causing supply chains to shift to imported juice. Mitigation Efforts: Researchers and growers are testing antimicrobial treatments to combat greening, although these are costly and labor-intensive. Climate change is driving severe crop failures across the Middle East, with extreme droughts, rising temperatures, and water scarcity devastating agricultural production. Key staples like wheat and barley are severely affected, with reports indicating nearly 90% of rain-fed crops failed in parts of Iraq in 2022 and major, persistent losses across Syria, Morocco, and Iran. The crisis, exacerbated by desertification, is reducing yields, causing livestock losses of up to 85% in some areas, and forcing mass migration. Key Impacts on Agriculture Widespread Crop Failure: Iraq, Syria, and Jordan are facing critical water shortages, with significant portions of rain-fed crops failing. Production Declines: Morocco and Algeria saw substantial drops in cereal production, with some areas facing up to 80% losses in 2023. Water Scarcity & Drought: The region is experiencing higher temperatures and lower rainfall, accelerating desertification and reducing arable land. Livestock Losses: Drought conditions have decimated grazing lands, with Syrian shepherds losing over 80% of their livestock. Impact on Food Security: The region is facing increased food prices and high levels of hunger, with 118 million people in Africa and the Middle East at risk of climate-related food insecurity by 2030. Regional Specifics Iraq: Almost 90% of rain-fed crops failed in 2022, turning farmland into desert. Syria: Recurring droughts between 2005 and 2010 resulted in 80-85% livestock losses, and recent, continued drought has reduced wheat harvests by 40%. North Africa: Morocco and Algeria reported unprecedented droughts in 2023, causing a 20% drop in Morocco's agricultural output. Iran: A 24% decline in rainfall (2021-2022) caused severe agricultural losses. Drivers of Failure Long-Term Aridification: Climate models show long-term drying trends, making droughts more frequent and severe. Temperature Increases: Regional temperatures are rising, increasing water demand for agriculture. Diminishing Water Sources: Water levels in the Tigris, Euphrates, and Jordan rivers are dropping, reducing water for irrigation. Pest Infestations: Warmer temperatures are helping crop pests thrive, causing further damage. https://www.science.org/content/article/did-climate-change-drive-syrian-uprising From 2007 to 2010, Syria suffered a debilitating drought that brought crop failure and livestock mortality to as much as 60% of the country and displaced up to 1.5 million people. A year later, Syria descended into chaos. A repressive regime and the spread of the 2011 Arab Spring were the overt drivers of the conflict, but some scientists argue that drought played a powerful role. Now, a new study finds that human-induced climate change has increased the likelihood of such a severe drought occurring in the region two- to threefold. The researchers examined a century of observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean and noted a long-term warming trend and decreased winter rainfall in the second half of the 20th century. That drying trend is separate from the climate's natural (not human-induced) variability, they report online today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. When increased greenhouse gas emissions, particularly of carbon dioxide, are included in models, they more than double the likelihood of a severe, 3-year drought in the Fertile Crescent, they found. That agrees with the conclusion of a 2011 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration study that linked increasing incidence of droughts in the Mediterranean region over the last 20 years to human-induced climate change. The link to conflicts is more uncertain, but previous teams have found that fluctuations in climate have been a statistically significant driver of social disturbances over centuries of human history, including war, famine, and migration. Climate change-induced crop failures in Central America's "Dry Corridor" are major drivers of migration, with droughts and hurricanes destroying subsistence farming in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. Consecutive years of failed corn and bean harvests, coupled with coffee rust, have caused acute food insecurity. Studies show that drier growing seasons directly correlate with increased migration to the U.S., as families flee poverty and hunger. Impact on Agriculture and Migration The Dry Corridor Crisis: The region, stretching from El Salvador through Honduras and Guatemala, suffers from extreme weather, including severe droughts and, paradoxically, flooding from hurricanes (e.g., Eta and Iota in 2020). Failed Crops: In 2018, up to 70% of subsistence crops were ruined by dry spells. By 2030, unpredictable rainfall and rising temperatures are expected to reduce maize, bean, and rice yields by up to 10-24%. Economic Collapse: Coffee, a primary cash crop, is severely impacted by coffee rust caused by rising temperatures and fluctuating rainfall. Migration Drivers: Food-insecure families are three times more likely to migrate. Many farmers are forced to move when their livelihoods are destroyed, with some studies showing a 70.7% increase in emigration to the US following abnormally dry seasons. Long-Term Outlook Regional Instability: Crop losses and increased poverty could create up to 4 million climate migrants in Mexico and Central America by midcentury. Uninhabitable Conditions: Some areas of the Dry Corridor could become largely uninhabitable within 20 years, forcing massive, sustained migration, notes YouTube video 72VqN4_LUIA. Climate change acts as a "threat multiplier" in the region, amplifying existing challenges like poverty, violence, and weak governance.

It was nice to see the return of snowy clippers and a benchmark 10”+ snowstorm. But Central PA is still waiting for the return of the big Miller A tracks east of the APPS. They have only reached average once in the last decade. State College hasn’t been in the top 20 for snowiest seasons for more than 20 years. It has to be very rough for JB since that area has turned into one of the worst snow holes in the East.

The bigger picture has been how we can’t get much precipitation of any P-type with the expanding drought across the U.S heading into the warm season. We had the one major system in late January with very high snow ratios before the mixing began. Even the clippers in December started out higher ratio before the mixing and dry slot arrived.

Climate change won’t be addressed until we acknowledge that it actually exists. Sure it’s s topic of discussion but it’s not taken seriously. Since the agricultural revolution around 10,000 years ago, the world has been in full conquer nature mode. The warming world is just one of the many of the many out of balance with nature themes playing out. So it can act as a force multiplier when combined with other issues from economic to environmental. What needs to happen is that we will have to change our world perspective. Instead of viewing ourselves as separate from nature we will have to come to the understanding that we are part of nature. Once we make that leap, we have a chance to come back into balance with nature and build world systems which are healthy for us and the rest of the natural world.

This has been our coolest November to mid-February in over a decade. But since the Northern stream and Western ridge was so dominant, we couldn’t achieve the snowfall totals of 1996, 2014, 1994, 2003, and 2011. Some lingering influence from the longer term lower snowfall pattern since 2018-2019 even though this winter was much colder. But I am very happy we got our big benchmark snowstorm which brought many close to the long term 25 to 30 average with the more active STJ for a week in late January. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Coolest 11-1 to 2-12 periods since 1991 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1996-02-12 33.7 0 2 2014-02-12 35.1 0 3 1994-02-12 35.3 0 4 2026-02-12 35.4 0 - 2003-02-12 35.4 0 5 2011-02-12 35.8 0 6 2001-02-12 35.9 0 7 2015-02-12 36.1 0 8 2004-02-12 36.2 0 9 2009-02-12 36.8 0 10 2018-02-12 36.9 0

You don’t really have even the most basic understanding of how complex worldwide systems work. We currently have a two-tiered economic system around the world. This means that the areas with sufficient wealth can insulate themselves from environmental issues including issues stemming from the warming climate. So the worldwide crop yields increasing is more a function of the expansion of living standards for people in the more prosperous societies. So localized crop failures in the Middle East and Central America contributing mass migrations cause issues for people on the lower rung of the economic ladder. These displaced peoples move to the more prosperous societies to the north with increasing crop yields where they are absorbed. But they directly compete with the lower people in these societies who are already facing economic challenges. This leads to political instability in those societies. Same story for rising insurance rates in the U.S. from extreme weather disasters. The people with more economic means just shrug off these increases. But an increasing segment of society living paycheck to paycheck are forced to move or sell their house and rent. This is the situation we find ourselves in today across the planet with what is being described as a K shaped economy. So all the headline numbers we see are a function of a smaller share doing relatively well. You saying that a few crop failures in an otherwise increasing crop yields world is essentially a big fat nothing burger is a classic let them eat cake response. Just like the people who say that increasing property insurance rates isn’t a big deal are missing an important process. We live in a very delicately balanced global economic society. If a growing number of people don’t feel like society isn’t working for them, then the current global structure is on borrowed time since it’s unsustainable. Climate and environmental degradation are contributing factors to many other instabilities in this economic system. There are also plenty others leading to the current global state. So we can list a whole series of other issues across the board. But your attitude exemplifies the casual disregard for important underlying issues which will probably come to a head in coming years. I am ultimately very hopeful long term. My guess is that we will eventually achieve a more in balanced global society with others and the natural world. But the road to that future state will probably be bumpy. But in the end I think local segments of like minded people will build a more bottom up society that works for everyone rather than the current top down model.

Several of the biggest human migration stories since 2010 have a MMGW component as a contributing factor. A major trigger for the refugee crisis and migration into Europe was a crop failure caused by MMGW in the Middle East earlier in the last decade. Same for the wave of migration north from Central America into the U.S. following MMGW crop failures over the last decade. When those stressors combined with the background issues of extreme poverty they tipped the balance to mass migrations to escape those conditions. Within the U.S. some parts of the country with extreme hurricane activity over the last decade due to record SSTs leading to the record rapid intensification of hurricanes have seen a steep increase in homeowners insurance. So many have gotten priced out of those markets. Same across the Western U.S. where drought and wildfire activity have made some spots uninsurable leading to people exiting these regions. The good news is that we have sophisticated weather warning systems here to help save lives. But less developed parts of the world with increasing extremes haven’t been as lucky since they lack the warning systems we have. Parts of the Southeast U.S. have experienced rapid sea level rise since the 1990s combined with subsidence and groundwater pumping leading to saltwater intrusion. So several new high rises have been sinking and older structures have been having issues salt water intrusion into their foundations. We hope that the fragile WAIS will take hundreds of years to slowly melt. But they recently discovered that in past ice ages there were rapid melt episodes where significant sea level rise occurred in just a few decades. Sea level rise following past ice ages wasn’t that big of a deal since the world wasn’t covered by coastal megacities like we have today. So an unexpected rapid sea level rise in any future decades due to our incomplete understanding of ice sheet dynamics would trigger a wave of migrations which would make the migrations since 2010 look tiny in comparison. Plus nearly all of the time when we pass critical climate thresholds we don’t know we have crossed into a new regime until it has already occurred. While the earth is a very resilient system, we really don’t understand how making these rapid alterations to the climate system will fully play out. Ecosystems are delicately balanced and what seems like a small change scan have a a much bigger impact than we understand. This whole climate experiment we have been running reminds me a bit of the great song by Pink Floyd.

I think it’s more a function of human nature and our evolution that the warming planet doesn’t really get as much attention as other issues do. We evolved during ice ages that were tremendously challenging to just survive without the modern amenities we have today. So historically cold has been more of a concern than it being too warm. Most of the migration within the United States is from colder locations to the warmer sunbelt locations from Arizona to Texas and Florida. So it’s natural when we have a very cold 16 day period for most of the attention to be focused on cold since we have normalized all the record warmth in recent years. The cold stands out much more even though the magnitude, duration, and geographic footprint has been getting smaller over time. I also believe on a greater level most people outside this forum don’t like the cold and snow during winter. But this misses the long term challenges of the destabilizing effects of more extreme weather leading to migration shifts from areas which become difficult to survive in.

Even with the big warm up across North America the next few weeks, the Northeast is still only getting back closer to average.

Great charts showing how much smaller the geographic footprint and magnitude of these Arctic arctic outbreaks have become relative to the areas of record warmth. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/uspa/warm-cold/0 Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow The Dec-Jan period was the 7th warmest for the Contiguous U.S. since 1940. 21.1% had the warmest Dec-Jan during that period. 0.0% had the coldest Dec-Jan; 0.0% had the 2nd coldest, 0.0% had the 3rd coldest, .... all the way thru the 13th coldest. 9:32 PM · Feb 4,

That April 1982 blizzard was the most extreme out of season blizzard with record cold that I have ever experienced. Probably near a record number of lightning flashes for any snowstorm. The extended Newark records back to 1843 show how impressive it was even ranked against the much colder 1800s climate. April Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 15.8 1915-04-04 0 - 15.8 1915-04-03 0 2 12.8 1982-04-07 0 - 12.8 1982-04-06 0 3 12.0 1924-04-02 0 4 9.5 1854-04-17 0 5 8.0 1850-04-06 0 - 8.0 1850-04-05 0 6 7.0 1916-04-09 0 7 6.0 1862-04-09 0 8 5.5 1896-04-08 0 - 5.5 1896-04-07 0 9 5.2 1938-04-07 0 10 5.0 2018-04-03 0 - 5.0 2018-04-02 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Minimum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1923 13 0 2 1982 16 0 3 1857 17 0 4 1856 20 0 5 1874 21 0 - 1868 21 0 - 1855 21 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Apr Lowest Maximum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1982 30 0 2 1938 32 0 - 1857 32 0 3 1898 33 0 - 1862 33 0 4 1919 34 0 - 1896 34 0 - 1874 34 0 - 1868 34 0 5 1943 35 0 - 1879 35 0 - 1875 35 0