bluewave

You have to use the 1961-1990 base period or earlier which was in effect for the 1997-1998 super El Niño to directly compare the actual temperatures during 2023-2024. Using a more recent 1991-2020 period will show smaller departures for 2023-2024. The warmest CONUS winter rankings below are based on an even older base period starting in 1895. The 2023-2024 super El Niño event was the #1 warmest CONUS winter since 1895. The 2015-2016 super El Niño was the #3 warmest winter. While the 1997-1998 super El Niño was the 9th warmest CONUS winter. Contiguous U.S. Average Temperature December-February warmest winters since 1895 December 2023-February 2024 37.47°F 131 December 2025-February 2026 37.12°F 130 December 2015-February 2016 36.78°F 129 December 1999-February 2000 36.48°F 128 December 1991-February 1992 36.35°F 127 December 2011-February 2012 36.34°F 126 December 1998-February 1999 36.27°F 125 December 2019-February 2020 36.04°F 124 December 1997-February 1998 35.90°F 123 December 2016-February 2017 35.89°F 122 December 2001-February 2002 35.66°F 121 December 1994-February 1995 35.56°F 120 December 2005-February 2006 35.49°F 119 December 2004-February 2005 35.46°F 118 December 1953-February 1954 35.33°F 117 December 1933-February 1934 35.28°F 116 December 1982-February 1983 35.27°F 115 December 1952-February 1953 35.25°F 114 December 2022-February 2023 34.85°F 113 December 1920-February 1921 34.80°F 112 December 1980-February 1981 34.72°F 111* December 2021-February 2022 34.72°F 111* December 1975-February 1976 34.59°F 109

The more west based super El Niño in 2023-2024 had an even warmer winter than the east based 1997-1998 super El Niño. So exactly where the warmest SSTs end up with 2026-2027 that is forecast to be significantly stronger than both of those may not really matter that much. Plus I also don’t think the timing of how quickly the SSTs drop by the later portion of winter into spring will make much of a difference considering how record breaking the peak with this one will be.

We can see the evolution of top end heatwaves at Central Park as the tree canopy has continued to expand and cover the site. Prior to the mid 1990s when the new ASOS was established, Central Park was more in line with places like Newark and LGA during heatwaves reaching 103° and higher. There were times like July 1936 and 1977 when it was the warmest station around NYC Metro. So a station such as Newark would probably need to reach 104°-105° for NYC to have a shot at 100° with how dense the tree cover had become during the 2020s. NYC has gone a record breaking 5094 days not reaching 100° since July 2012. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 100 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2026-06-29 1 5094 2012-07-19 through 2026-06-29 2 4609 1881-11-11 through 1894-06-24 3 4022 1966-07-14 through 1977-07-17 4 4015 1980-07-22 through 1991-07-19 5 3261 1957-07-23 through 1966-06-26 6 3252 2001-08-10 through 2010-07-05 7 2904 1918-08-08 through 1926-07-20 8 2844 1903-09-19 through 1911-07-02 9 2219 1911-07-04 through 1917-07-30 10 1475 1944-08-12 through 1948-08-25 Data for June 1, 2025 through June 30, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NJ HARRISON COOP 103 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 103 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 102 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 101 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 101 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 101 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 101 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 101 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 100 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 100 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 100 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 99 Data for June 1, 2021 through June 30, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NJ HARRISON COOP 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 100 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 98 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 98 Data for July 1, 2011 through July 31, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108 NJ HARRISON COOP 107 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 Data for July 1, 2010 through July 31, 2010 Newark Thermometer Malfunctioned missing highest temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MINEOLA COOP 108 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106 NJ HARRISON COOP 106 CT DANBURY COOP 104 NJ CRANFORD COOP 104 NY WEST POINT COOP 103 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 103 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 103 Data for August 1, 2001 through August 31, 2001 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 105 NY MINEOLA COOP 105 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 104 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NJ HARRISON COOP 104 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 104 NJ CRANFORD COOP 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 103 Data for July 1, 1993 through July 31, 1993 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NJ WAYNE COOP 104 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 103 CT DANBURY COOP 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 102 Monthly Data for July 1980 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 104 NJ CRANFORD COOP 102 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 102 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 102 NJ LODI COOP 102 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 102 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 101 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 101 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 101 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 101 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 101 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 101 NY SCARSDALE COOP 101 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 100 NY WEST POINT COOP 100 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 100 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 100 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 99 Data for July 1, 1977 through July 31, 1977 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 103 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 102 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 102 Data for July 1, 1966 through July 31, 1966 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 107 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 105 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 104 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 104 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 104 NY WEST POINT COOP 103 NY MINEOLA COOP 103 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 103 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 103 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 103 Monthly Data for July 1955 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ ELIZABETH COOP 103 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 102 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 102 NJ PATERSON COOP 102 NY WEST POINT COOP 102 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 101 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 101 NJ RIDGEFIELD COOP 101 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 101 NY HEMPSTEAD MITCHELL FIELD AFB WBAN 101 CT WATERBURY CITY HALL COOP 101 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 100 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 100 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 100 Data for July 1, 1954 through July 31, 1954 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 103 NY WEST POINT COOP 103 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 102 NJ RIDGEFIELD COOP 102 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 102 NJ PATERSON COOP 102 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 102 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 101 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 101 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 101 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 100 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 100 Data for September 1, 1953 through September 30, 1953 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ PATERSON COOP 106 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 105 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 105 NY WEST POINT COOP 105 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 104 NY SUFFERN 2 E COOP 104 NY NORTHPORT COOP 103 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 103 NY CARMEL COOP 103 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 103 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 103 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 103 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 103 CT NORWALK COOP 102 NY SCARSDALE COOP 102 NY STEWART FIELD WBAN 102 NY WALDEN 2 NE COOP 102 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 102 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 102 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 102 Data for July 1, 1949 through July 31, 1949 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NJ PATERSON COOP 105 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 104 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 102 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 102 NJ RUTHERFORD COOP 102 CT NORWALK COOP 102 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 102 Data for August 1, 1948 through August 31, 1948 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT NORWALK COOP 104 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 104 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 104 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 103 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 103 NJ RUTHERFORD COOP 103 NJ PATERSON COOP 103 NY HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY COOP 103 Data for July 1, 1936 through July 31, 1936 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 106 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 105 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 105 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 105 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 105 NJ PATERSON COOP 105 NY SCARSDALE COOP 105 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 105 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 105 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 104 NY FLUSHING COOP 104 NY WEST POINT COOP 104

I suspect the climate models aren’t good enough yet to detect all of the circulation changes that are resulting from warming the climate. We are warming the planet at faster rate than our current level of technology can keep up with So we get these repeated 500mb ridges which keep getting stuck in places for long durations leading to these increasing record heat extremes. It’s quite possible that the repeating omega block itself which is a part of the record heat pattern in Europe is also related to the warming climate. From The Atlantic: https://geography.dartmouth.edu/news/2025/01/climate-models-cant-explain-whats-happening-earth Climate Models Can’t Explain What’s Happening to Earth Fifty years into the project of modeling Earth's future climate, we still don't really know what's coming. Some places are warming with more ferocity than expected. Extreme events are taking scientists by surprise. Right now, as the bald reality of climate change bears down on human life, scientists are seeing more clearly the limits of our ability to predict the exact future we face. The coming decades may be far worse, and far weirder, than the best models anticipated. This is a problem. The world has warmed enough that city planners, public-health officials, insurance companies, farmers, and everyone else in the global economy want to know what's coming next for their patch of the planet. And telling them would require geographic precision that even the most advanced climate models don't yet have, as well as computing power that doesn't yet exist. Our picture of what is happening and probably will happen on Earth is less hazy than it's ever been. Still, the exquisitely local scale on which climate change is experienced and the global purview of our best tools to forecast its effects simply do not line up. Today's climate models very accurately describe the broad strokes of Earth's future. But warming has also now progressed enough that scientists are noticing unsettling mismatches between some of their predictions and real outcomes. Kai Kornhuber, a climate scientist at Columbia University, and his colleagues recently found that, on every continent except Antarctica, certain regions showed up as mysterious hot spots, suffering repeated heat waves worse than what any model could predict or explain. Across places where a third of humanity lives, actual daily temperature records are outpacing model predictions, according to forthcoming research from Dartmouth's Alexander Gottlieb and Justin Mankin. And a global jump in temperature that lasted from mid-2023 to this past June remains largely unexplained, a fact that troubles Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, although it doesn't entirely surprise him. "From the 1970s on, people have understood that all models are wrong," he told me. "But we've been working to make them more useful." In that sense, the project of climate modeling is a scientific process that's proceeding normally, even excellently. Only now the whole world needs very specific information to make crucial decisions, and they needed it, like, yesterday. That scientists don't have those answers might look like a failure of modeling, but really, it's a testament to how bad climate change has been permitted to get, and how quickly. The Earth is an unfathomably complex place, a nesting doll of systems within systems. Feedback loops among temperature, land, air, and water are made even more complicated by the fact that every place on Earth is a little different. Natural variability and human-driven warming further alter the rules that govern each of those fundamental interactions. Some of these systems such as cloud formation are notoriously poorly understood, despite having a major bearing on climate change. And, like clouds, many parts of the Earth system are just too localized for climate models to pick up on. "We have to approximate cloud formation because we don't have the small scales necessary to resolve individual water droplets coming together," Robert Rohde, the chief scientist at the open-source environmental-data nonprofit Berkeley Earth, told me. Similarly, models approximate topography, because the scale at which mountain ranges undulate is smaller than the resolution of global climate models, which tend to represent Earth in, at best, 100-square-kilometer pixels. That resolution is good for understanding phenomena such as Arctic warming over decades. But "you can't resolve a tornado worth anything," Rohde said. Models simply can't function on the scale at which people live, because assessing the impact of current emissions on the future world requires hundreds of years of simulations. Modeling the Earth at one-square-kilometer pixels would take "like a hundred thousand times more computation than we currently have," Schmidt, of NASA, told me. Still, global climate models can be of local use if combined with enough regional data and the correct expertise, and more people now want to use them that way, in order to understand risk to their properties and investments, or to make emergency plans and build infrastructure. "We are asking a lot of the models. More than we have in the past," Rohde said. For nonscientists, coaxing useful information from climate models requires professional help. Climate scientists have been working for years with New York City to help direct choices such as where to put infrastructure with sea-level rise in mind. But, Schmidt said, "there's just not enough scientists to be on the advisory board of every locality or every enterprise or every institution or every company," helping them access the right climate data or pick which models to rely on. (Some are better at simulating certain variables, such as day-to-night temperature variation, than others.) Often governments end up turning to private-sector companies that claim to be able to translate the data; Schmidt would rather see his own field produce work that is more directly useful to the public. At the same time, now that the models are running up against the reality of dramatic climate change, some of their limits are showing. When this scientific endeavor first started, the models were meant to imagine what global temperatures might look like if greenhouse-gas emissions rose, and they did a remarkable job of that. But models are, even now, less capable of accounting for secondary effects of those emissions that no one saw coming, and that now seem to be driving important change. Some of those variables are missing from climate models entirely. Trees and land are major sinks for carbon emissions, and that this fact might change is not accounted for in climate models. But it is changing: Trees and land absorbed much less carbon than normal in 2023, according to research published last October. In Finland, forests have stopped absorbing the majority of the carbon they once did, and recently became a net source of emissions, which, as The Guardian has reported, swamped all gains the country has made in cutting emissions from all other sectors since the early 1990s. The interactions of the ice sheets with the oceans are also largely missing from models, Schmidt told me, despite the fact that melting ice could change ocean temperatures, which could have significant knock-on effects. Changing ocean-temperature patterns are currently making climate modelers at NOAA rethink their models of El Niño and La Niña; the agency initially predicted that La Niña's cooling powers would kick in much sooner than it now appears they will. Biases in climate models go in both directions: Some overestimate risk from various factors, and others underestimate it. Some models "run hot," suggesting more warming than what actually plays out. But the recent findings about temperature extremes point in the other direction: The models may be underestimating future climate risks across several regions because of a yet-unclear limitation. And, Rohde said, underestimating risk is far more dangerous than overestimating it. To Kornhuber, too, that models already appear to be severely underestimating climate risk in several places is a bad sign for what's ahead and our capacity to see it coming. "It should be worrying that we are now moving into a world where we've kind of reached the limit of our physical understanding of the Earth system," Kornhuber said. While models struggle to capture the world we live in now, the planet is growing more alien to us, further from our reference ranges, as the climate keeps changing. If given unlimited time, science could probably develop models that more fully captured what we're watching play out. But by then it would be too late to do anything about it. Science is more than five decades into the modeling endeavor, and still our best tools can only get us so far. "At the end of the day, we are all making estimates of what's coming," Rohde said. "And there is no magic crystal ball to tell us the absolute truth." We're left instead with a partial picture, gestural in its scope, pointing toward a world we've never seen before. Access Original Article here. Illustration by The Atlantic WRITTEN BY Zoë Schlanger (The Atlantic) SHARE THIS

Yeah, it has been a great link to use during the heatwaves since it was established. They even have a records section from previous years and months. The Queens corridor into Interior Nassau at times has seen some of the strongest compressional heating east of the Hudson.

The present more Niña-like pattern is probably being enhanced by how much warmer the Indian Ocean through the Maritime Continent to around the Dateline is than all the other previous super El Niños at this time of year. So we get a westward extension of the forcing overlapping with the El Niño standing wave. Notice how the dates of the record warmth going back to March in the East coincided with the forcing moving from the Indian Ocean to the WPAC. Plus the interaction between the record SSTs in the Mid-latitudes could also be influencing the pattern. Even the state of the Arctic could be playing a role. The extent of the +30C pool is larger than 2023 at this time when we were having a much cooler El Nino-like pattern from the late spring into summer. So we are getting a head start on the Niña-like influences which waited until closer to the winter in December 2015 and January 2024 to occur. +30 C warm pool expansion since the late 1990s during the late spring of developing super El Niños

Corona, Queens is one of the prime spots for compressional heating.

The usual warm spots around the area have a shot at 104°-105° or warmer. Both the Euro and GFS have 850mb temperatures around +25 C Thursday and Friday. I believe July 2011 was the last time 850 mb temperatures reached this high.

NYC and other locations continuing the drought pattern which emerged back in September 2024. NYC hasn’t had a month with above average precipitation since May 2025. This will enhance the record heat potential around the area going into July. June 2026 MONTH TO DATE 3.39 4.41 -1.02 May 2026 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 635 PM EDT MON JUN 01 2026 ................................... ...THE CENTRAL PARK NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF MAY 2026... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1869 TO 2026 WEATHER OBSERVED NORMAL DEPART LAST YEAR`S VALUE DATE(S) VALUE FROM VALUE DATE(S) NORMAL ................................................................ TEMPERATURE (F) RECORD HIGH 99 05/19/1962 LOW 32 05/06/1891 HIGHEST 93 05/19 MM MM 85 05/03 LOWEST 45 05/03 MM MM 47 05/23 AVG. MAXIMUM 71.5 71.4 0.1 69.5 AVG. MINIMUM 54.9 55.0 -0.1 55.2 MEAN 63.2 63.2 0.0 62.3 DAYS MAX >= 90 2 1.0 1.0 0 DAYS MAX <= 32 0 0.0 0.0 0 DAYS MIN <= 32 0 0.0 0.0 0 DAYS MIN <= 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 PRECIPITATION (INCHES) RECORD MAXIMUM 10.24 1989 MINIMUM 0.30 1903 TOTALS 3.05 3.96 -0.91 6.58

Based on how consistent the CFS has been, expect the Euro to increase to the +3.5 to +4 traditional ONI range also on its release coming for July 5th. This makes sense given the all -time record SST warmth we are currently experiencing so early on. Continuing WWBs will allow this event to keep intensifying at a record rate. The forecasts will be more accurate as get further past the spring predictability barrier.

I deal more in persistence rather than whether something is permanent or not. Will let history decide in the future whether something that we have been experiencing turns out to be permanent or not. Agree with you 100% that the ridges have been getting stronger over time regardless of El Niño or La Niña. But all the record warmth we have experienced in the East since March has occurred as forcing crossed the Maritime Continent. This degree forcing there at times wasn’t present when we had cooler SSTs during earlier super El Niños like 1997. Recent studies have shown more persistent forcing there as the Indio-Pacific warm pool has continued to expand. This is also why our last 2 super El Niños in 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 featured at least one winter month with forcing from the IO to WPAC which didn’t occur with past super El Niños also noted in recent papers. Forcing in those areas most of the time results in a ridge setting up over the East.

The Indian Ocean into West Pacific wasn’t anywhere near as warm back in 1972, 1982, and 1997 during those developing super El Niños. This is one of the reasons that those years didn’t feature the record warmth that we have from had from March, April, May,June, and into July in the East. The other reason is probably the record mid latitude SST warmth that didn’t exist back in those days. All of these features including the much warmer planet and drought are contributing factors. Record heat every month starting back in March with new monthly maxes tied or set in May. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1843-05-01 through 2026-06-27DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 3/10 82 in 2026 81 in 2016 76 in 2006 3/11 82 in 2026 75 in 2021 71 in 1977 4/15 91 in 2026 88 in 1960 87 in 1941 5/19 99 in 2026 98 in 1962 93 in 2017+ 6/11 97 in 2026 96 in 2000 96 in 1984

The record heatwave into the 100s to start July in the East is another example of how the seasonal models don’t handle long range Maritime Continent forcing very well especially when it’s out of phase with the ENSO forcing. The long range July forecast was just focused on the developing super El Niño forcing. This has been a common theme as the more recent forecasts show much stronger Maritime Continent forcing than the seasonal long range forecast did. So just looking at the seasonal guidance you wouldn’t get any indication that there would be a 594 DM+ heat dome in the East producing record highs over 100°. So we often get multiple regions of forcing matching the locations of the warmest +30C SSTs. Old July seasonal forecast New July forecast

Record heat every month starting back in March with new monthly maxes tied or set in May. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1843-05-01 through 2026-06-27DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 3/10 82 in 2026 81 in 2016 76 in 2006 3/11 82 in 2026 75 in 2021 71 in 1977 4/15 91 in 2026 88 in 1960 87 in 1941 5/19 99 in 2026 98 in 1962 93 in 2017+ 6/11 97 in 2026 96 in 2000 96 in 1984

The subtropical North Atlantic is the warmest on record for June 26th.

Makes you really miss years like 1996 with 77”-92” of snow and only 1-5 days reaching 90° on parts of Long Island. Snowfall Data for October 1, 1995 through April 30, 1996 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 84.0 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 80.0 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 77.1 PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 92.0 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 78.8 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 86.2 90° Day Data for January 1, 1996 through December 31, 1996 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SETAUKET STRONG COOP 5 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 3 PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 2 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 2 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 2 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 1 GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 1

All 3 major models are now showing 105° potential for the warmest areas this week. Just goes to show what is possible when drought feedback coincides with such a strong ridge and a warming climate. While the sample size for super El Niño events is small, this would be a first for a developing El Niño this strong. The other examples of heat approaching or exceeding 105° at the warm spots during July were La Ninas like 2011, 2010, 2001, 1966, and some years closer to neutral. So the heat is getting an early start with this super El Niño. Past super El Niño events waited until the fall through the following summers for their greatest warmth relative to the seasons.

Plenty of more rural to suburban stations outside the main I-95 urban corridor are high up on the list for most 90°days on record through the end of June from Eastern PA into New England.

The more rural observation sites are ranked just as high for the 90° day rankings as the urban ones.

Your local area not really representative of the much warmer pattern experienced around the greater region from the spring into summer so far. Parts of NJ had early record 100° heat for May. Many local climate sites are currently in the top 5 for the most 90° days by June 24. But I agree with you that the pullbacks closer to average between the record heat days are probably the developing El Nino influence. While super El Niños are a small sample size, none of the previous developing super El Niños came anywhere close to the number of 90° days so early in the season. Most of the shared top 5 years are La Niña, neutral, or weaker El Niños. Plus the warming climate is also influence increasing the 90° days counts.

Big warming north of Hawaii and with the +AMO increase off the East Coast are associated with record 100°+ heat being forecast in the East to start July. This has more in common with La Niña than a super El Niño in July. Notice how nearly all the analog dates are developing or established La Niña Summers. So while the daily PDO is closer to neutral than at this time last year, the atmospheric 500 mb pattern more resembles La Niña over North America.

We knew back in May when NJ hit 100° that we were on a much warmer summer super El Niño track than what we have seen before. The floor now looks like 102°-104° at the usual warm spots as the GFS and CMC have. The Euro is really going bonkers over 105°+. This is about as warm as we have seen all 3 major models go within a 7 day forecast.

Near to record start to the severe season in that area. Illinois has seen some of the biggest increases in tornadoes over the years. Hopefully, the models are correct and the worst storms stay north of Chicago for your vacation.

Our last two super El Niños had at least one month with dominant Maritime Continent forcing. December 2015 Maritime Continent forcing transitioned to more El Niño-like forcing in January and February. This was the strongest El Niño on record. 2023-2024 also had one winter month with Maritime Continent forcing in January.