bluewave

Upstate NY is turning into one of the most in demand real estate markets as we may be seeing the beginning of a reverse migration process.

Continuation of the same pattern into late June. Another weekend with chances for rain but no washout. Saturday looks like the best chance for scattered convection. Drier on Sunday. Then mid 90s on Monday just inland from sea breeze front west of NYC.

Manhattan UHI peaked in 1910 right before the population density began to decline.

The NAM is finally getting replaced after they stop updating it in March 2017. Public Information Statement 25-41 National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring, MD 845 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025 To: Subscribers: -NOAA Weather Wire Service -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network -NOAAPORT Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees From: Richard Bandy Acting Director NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center Subject: Soliciting Comments on Proposed Discontinuation of the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model and other Regional Modeling Systems to be Replaced by the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) through July 26, 2025. The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is working towards replacing the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model, the High Resolution Window (HiresW) aside from the Guam domain, the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) and the North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE) systems with the implementation of the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) in early 2026. The NWS is seeking comments on this proposed change through July 26, 2025. This transition to RRFS would provide an hourly updating modeling system over a North America region at 3 km horizontal grid spacing, which, combined with the model retirements, would greatly unify and simplify the “convective scale” (approximately 3 km grid spacing) regional models within the NWS operational modeling suite. As a deterministic system running to 84 h, the RRFS would fully retire the NAM, and nearly fully retire the HiresW (aside from the Guam domain). As an ensemble forecast system, the RRFS Ensemble Forecast System (REFS) would fully retire the HREF and NARRE systems. The deterministic RRFS generates full domain output at 3 km grid spacing, and subset grid output over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and Alaska (AK) (at 3 km grid spacing), and Hawaii (HI) and Puerto Rico (PR) (at 2.5 km grid spacing). The RRFS will also provide output from a separate 1.5 km RRFS fire weather run, with output provided over a 5 x 5 degree rotated latitude longitude region. Details of the RRFS output grids are available in https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/rrfs_info/rrfs_grids.txt Relative differences between RRFS output products and the proposed-to-be- retired system products will be discussed individually by the modeling

1949 had record August cold despite the 100° days. So in those days, the heat tended to get balanced out with cold. Plus the following 1950 summer was the 6th coldest on record. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2025-06-25DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F) 8/20 52 in 1949 55 in 1943 56 in 2008+ 8/21 53 in 1949 53 in 1940 56 in 1977+ Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2025-06-25DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 8/10 102 in 1949 99 in 2001 97 in 1973+ 8/11 102 in 1949 102 in 1944 98 in 2005 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1940 71.0 0 2 1946 71.7 0 3 1945 72.4 0 4 1941 72.5 0 5 1936 72.7 0 6 1950 72.8 0 - 1935 72.8 0 - 1933 72.8 0 - 1932 72.8 0

Those heatwaves were all about severe droughts since it was a much cooler climate era. Just look at how many summers we had back then when even the warmest parts of NJ couldn’t make it to 20 days reaching 90° in a season. We haven’t seen a summer in NJ with under 20 days reaching 90° since 2014. These days the warm spots in NJ seldom get under 30 days even during our cooler summers.

Yeah, all the lawns in Long Beach during July 1999 turned brown. 1999 to 2002 was the last time that the NYC reservoirs ran low. These days flooding has become more of a concern than drought.

1988 was all about duration. It’s what happens with drought feedback. This wetter pattern is why we don’t get those very long extended heatwaves anymore. But we can still get shorter and more intense ones like the last few days.

It would be possible in NJ with a 60s to 01 style drought. But our climate has become much wetter since then. So I think it would be a challenge to ever get another 20 day 90° day heatwave in NJ or double the 5 day 100° streak from 22. The pattern of our new climate is a bunch of shorter heatwaves. But a high total number of 90° days especially in NJ. This is why they have seen so many summers with 40+ 90° days recently. But with breaks in between and no 20 day runs.

Our longest 20 day heatwave back in 1988 was all about the record Plains drought which extended to the East Coast. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1988-07-29 95 0.00 1988-07-30 99 0.00 1988-07-31 90 T 1988-08-01 91 0.00 1988-08-02 94 0.00 1988-08-03 93 0.00 1988-08-04 92 0.00 1988-08-05 90 T 1988-08-06 90 0.00 1988-08-07 93 T 1988-08-08 90 0.00 1988-08-09 92 0.00 1988-08-10 93 0.01 1988-08-11 97 0.00 1988-08-12 95 0.00 1988-08-13 98 0.00 1988-08-14 98 0.00 1988-08-15 99 0.00 1988-08-16 92 0.00 1988-08-17 90 0.05

If we had a drought and this was a month later, then maybe the 2010 and 2011 highs of 108° could have been challenged. Hard to say for sure. But it’s interesting that this strongest heatwave in over a decade followed the record westerly flow this past winter into spring. Even though we are seeing a quick return to easterly flow. Plus continuing the measurable rainfall on weekend pattern without it being a washout. I guess we are lucky that we haven’t experienced any severe droughts like we had from the 1960s to around 2001. Since droughts of that magnitude with the warmer background pattern would probably support 110°+ peak heat and our first consecutive 10 days reaching 100° and perhaps a 25 day official heatwave of reaching 90°. While this heatwave only produced some scattered outages, not sure how well our power grid would hold up with such extreme drought feedback driven heat.

The other thing to watch going forward is the potential for a 10”+ rainfall event in a few hours or spread out over a month for someone in the area. Every other La Niña like this year since 1955 had one following the major 103°+ heat. While this isn’t a guarantee, it’s something to be aware of that happened in the past from the summer into early and mid fall. La Niña years with 10”+ rainfall daily or monthly events following peak 103°+ heat 2021 2011 2005 1999 1955

100°+ days at JFK and 80°+ minimums Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 2 103.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 3 102.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 102.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 102.0 2011-07-23 through 2011-07-23 - 102.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 - 102.0 1963-07-01 through 1963-07-01 4 101.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 101.0 2010-07-04 through 2010-07-04 - 101.0 1993-07-09 through 1993-07-09 - 101.0 1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04 - 101.0 1966-07-02 through 1966-07-02 - 101.0 1957-07-22 through 1957-07-22 - 101.0 1948-08-27 through 1948-08-27 5 100.0 2013-07-18 through 2013-07-18 - 100.0 2010-07-07 through 2010-07-07 - 100.0 1993-07-10 through 1993-07-10 - 100.0 1983-08-20 through 1983-08-20 - 100.0 1983-07-16 through 1983-07-16 - 100.0 1972-07-23 through 1972-07-23 - 100.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26 Maximum 1-Day Mean Min Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 82.0 2016-08-14 through 2016-08-14 - 82.0 1999-07-06 through 1999-07-06 3 81.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 81.0 1983-07-16 through 1983-07-16 - 81.0 1980-08-09 through 1980-08-09 - 81.0 1959-06-30 through 1959-06-30 7 80.0 2019-07-21 through 2019-07-21 - 80.0 2016-08-13 through 2016-08-13 - 80.0 2013-07-19 through 2013-07-19 - 80.0 2010-07-24 through 2010-07-24 - 80.0 2006-08-02 through 2006-08-02 - 80.0 2002-07-04 through 2002-07-04 - 80.0 2001-08-08 through 2001-08-08 - 80.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 - 80.0 1993-07-10 through 1993-07-10 - 80.0 1981-07-09 through 1981-07-09

This was the strongest heatwave in our area that was ever recorded during the month of June. We had widespread 103° readings from NJ to Baiting Holllow on Eastern Long Island with multiple 105° readings in Queens. This may be the first 103° ever recorded on Eastern Long Island. The other thing on the list below is how these heatwaves have become earlier in the season. We haven’t one in August since 2006 and September since 1953. 103°+ heatwaves since 1936 and local maximum temperatures June 2025…..105° June 2021…..103° July 2012……104° July 2011……108° July 2010…..108° August 2006…103° July 2005….103° August 2001….105° July 1999…..104° July 1995…..104° July 1993…..105° July 1977……104° July 1966….107° August 1955….103° September 1953…..105° July 1949…..105° July 1948…..103° July 1936….106°

This was the strongest heatwave in our area that was ever recorded during the month of June. We had widespread 103° readings from NJ to Baiting Holllow on Eastern Long Island with multiple 105° readings in Queens. This may be the first 103° ever recorded on Eastern Long Island. So the list below is all the 103°+heatwaves since 1936 and the month which they occurred. There hasn’t been multiple 103°+ heatwaves in the same season before. I know that you really enjoy this type of heat. But I am hoping that this follows past examples and is the warmest we see for all of 2025. The other thing on the list below is how these heatwaves have become earlier in the season. We haven’t one in August since 2006 and September since 1953. 103°+ heatwaves since 1936 and local maximum temperatures June 2025…..105° June 2021…..103° July 2012……104° July 2011……108° July 2010…..108° August 2006…103° July 2005….103° August 2001….105° July 1999…..104° July 1995…..104° July 1993…..105° July 1977……104° July 1966….107° August 1955….103° September 1953…..105° July 1949…..105° July 1948…..103° July 1936….106°

International Falls getting their earliest 70° minimum by 35 days back in May was probably the most impressive temperature record for the CONUS this year so far at a +33° minimum. CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 426 PM CDT MON MAY 12 2025 ................................... ...THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 12 2025... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1895 TO 2025 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 90R 2:59 PM 86 1991 63 27 67 MINIMUM 70 5:43 AM 18 2020 37 33 40 AVERAGE 80 50 30 54

No problem. If our area had low temperature extremes like places in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Vermont in recent years, then we would see lows around 88° in Queens and 83° at HPN and ISP. We are fortunate that we still haven’t seen a warm season extreme here like the 80° back in February 2018. An equivalent July extreme would be a high of 112° in Queens and around Newark. With low temperatures near 90° in both locations. Under such a scenario even the surrounding more rural areas would reach 105-108° during the day and struggle to fall much below 84° and 85° for a low.

Take it easy. I was just commenting on our local area. Our minimums haven’t been as extreme as the Upper Midwest has been experiencing this year. UHI is the differential between urban and rural areas. But luckily the urban areas haven’t seen the minimums as extreme as the rural ones have especially like Wisconsin and International Falls back in May. Around NYC Metro it’s very difficult for the minimums to remain above 80° outside the urban centers. We have been fortunate so far not to have experienced the low temperature extremes necessary for spots outside NYC to stay above 80° for low temperatures in recent years. So while both urban and rural areas around NYC have seen a record number of low maxes in recent years, the most extreme all-time low maxes have been going to our north.

Yeah, UHI is the reason that only the urban centers experienced 80° minimums during this heatwave. But the reason for the record minimums across all rural and urban sites is the warmer climate supporting higher dewpoints. So a 70° minimum at MPO and an 80° minimum in NYC during June are similar warm monthly minimum benchmarks for each location. The urban center around NYC is lucky that they didn’t experience a low minimum temperature as extreme as BTV did several years back. This is when BTV recorded their first 80° minimum. An equivalent record low minimum around NYC Metro would be 88°. Thankfully this hasn’t happened yet. But maybe in the coming decade somebody in NYC gets their first low max just under 90°. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 0200 AM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025 ...RECORD DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE AND RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT MOUNT POCONO PA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 93 DEGREES WAS SET AT MOUNT POCONO PA YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 90 DEGREES SET IN 1908. THIS WAS THE FIRST 90 DEGREE OR HIGHER TEMPERATURE IN THE MOUNT POCONO AREA IN 12 YEARS, WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 90 DEGREES ON JULY 19, 2013. THIS WAS ALSO THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURE IN THE MOUNT POCONO AREA SINCE JULY 18, 2012, WHEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 94 DEGREES. ADDITIONALLY, THIS WAS THE WARMEST JUNE TEMPERATURE ON RECORD IN THE MOUNT POCONO AREA SINCE RECORDS BEGAN. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WARMEST JUNE TEMPERATURE WAS 92 DEGREES SET BACK ON JUNE 24, 1914... JUNE 9, 1933... AND JUNE 26, 1952. IN ADDITION TO THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE, A RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES WAS ALSO SET AT MOUNT POCONO PA YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 69 DEGREES SET IN 2024. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE MOUNT POCONO PA AREA DATE BACK TO 1901.

Same theme. Just enough rain to keep the rain on the weekend streak going. But not enough for a complete wash out. But there could be a least some rain each day. Though the best beach weather continues to be on the weekdays. So it’s no surprise the models have a stalled front and rain chances for the July 4th weekend with weak waves of low pressure.

It’s possible that the next chance may be during the 2nd half of July at a lower level than this one was. The trough out West was very impressive. Though the cooler air is highly limited in the Northern Hemisphere with all the record heat, that area did manage to see some record lows. This matches the pattern of recent years with our warmest temperatures occurring with deep Western Troughs. Looks like the rain on the weekends pattern is set to continue.

This was a record event for late June in our area. The La Niña sample size for 103° or greater is very limited for the last 10 days of June. But 2021 was the last time. It turned out to be the highest summer temperatures we experienced that year. This extreme event was associated with a very deep trough diving into the West. Current models forecasts don’t show a trough returning to the West as we head into July. So my very early guess is that this could be the only 103° to 105° range we see this summer. But there could very well be another few 100°-102° days beyond this current period.

JFK could have reached 105° if the sea breeze didn’t arrive. The Lefferts/ Ozone Park station just to the north on the other side of the Belt Parkway reached 105°. Another nearby separate Ozone Park station also made it to 105°. Newark and Harrison in NJ both reached 103°. This is the earliest 105° across the area since 7-3-1966. So the first 105° readings in this area during the month of June. Corona 104 92 79 22 0.00 E 40th St. / Murray Hill 102 86 94 102 92 69 25 0.00 East River at Alphabet City Fresh Kills 102 79 92 105 79 90 29 0.00 18 9:35am 11 6:35pm 29.0 Glendale / Maspeth 102 83 94 103 90 78 23 0.00 Gold Street / Navy Yard 102 85 94 104 91 71 25 0.00 21 9:40am 10 9:05am 28.6 Lefferts / South Ozone Park 105 79 93 105 79 88 21 0.00 GW2248 OZONE PARK Observation Time: 06/25/25 @ 06:14 EDT 10:14 UTC Elevation: 22 ft OK Weather Conditions Temperature: 87 °F Dew Point: 71 °F Humidity: 60 % Peak Gust: 0 MPH 24 Hour Max/Min Events Max Temperature: 105 °F Min Temperature: 82 °F Max RH: 83 % Min RH: 26 % Max Dew Point: 77 °F Min Dew Point: 62 °F Max Gust: 7 MPH Data for June 1, 2025 through June 25, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NJ HARRISON COOP 103 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 102 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 101 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 101 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 101 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 100 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 100

Pretty impressive to see POU beat daily record by +6°. CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 439 PM EDT TUE JUN 24 2025 ................................... ...THE POUGHKEEPSIE NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 24 2025... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1931 TO 2025 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 100R 2:59 PM 94 1945 82 18 79

All official temperature readings are taken in the sun with a fan-aspirated radiation shield. Put that set up under a stand of mature trees and the temperature will drop from 3° to sometimes 5° degrees on warm sunny days. Prior to the 1990s the sensor and shield with the fan was in direct sunlight. So this sets up the discontinuity between the pre and post 1990s temperature readings from Central Park. This is why Newark and NYC used to trade places with which station was warmer from 1930 to 1980. It’s possible the tree growth was becoming an issue in the 80s to early 90s. But really became pronounced since the 1990s and especially since 2013.