bluewave

December 2000 was cold and snowy in NYC. The real outlier years for lack of snow and warmth were 2001 and 2006. The December 11 year snowfall average from 2000-2010 was 8.9” in NYC which was the best since the 1940s. December 1989 was a whole different story for extreme cold. It was more like a typical LIA winter than anything we have ever seen in modern times. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Coldest Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1917 25.0 0 - 1876 25.0 0 2 1989 25.9 0 3 1880 26.4 0 4 1872 26.7 0 5 1926 28.9 0 6 1871 29.0 0 7 1958 29.3 0 8 1955 29.7 0 - 1910 29.7 0 - 1886 29.7 0 9 1976 29.9 0 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Coldest Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1989 7.5 0 2 1917 12.2 0 3 1963 12.9 0 4 1958 13.0 0 5 1970 14.3 0 6 1980 15.0 0 7 1910 15.9 0 8 1904 16.0 0 9 1933 16.2 0 10 1976 16.3 0

They just set the new all-time warmest 10am temperature at the station before the sea breeze arrives. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&month=all&sday=0702&eday=1231&var=max_tmpf&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Newark is currently 3° cooler at 10am. SXUS51 KOKX 021357 OSOOKX New York City Metropolitan Area Weather Roundup National Weather Service New York NY 1000 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2026 CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Central Park SUNNY 91 71 51 W6 30.02S HX 97 LaGuardia Arpt MOSUNNY 90 69 50 NW10 29.98R HX 94 Kennedy Intl MOSUNNY 96 69 41 NW10 29.99R HX 102 Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 95 69 42 W9 29.99S HX 100 Teterboro Arpt SUNNY 93 71 48 VRB6 29.98S HX 100 Bronx Lehman C N/A 90 70 51 NW7 N/A HX 95 Queens College N/A 91 68 46 N10 N/A HX 95 Breezy Point N/A 82 N/A N/A W7 N/A Brooklyn Coll N/A 91 68 46 N8 N/A HX 95 Staten Island N/A 93 70 46 NW5 N/A HX 99

2012 had record May into June early melt ponding with the strong AD and AO blocking continuing through July. Then came the record early August storm leading to the steepest sea ice decline ever during the first half of August. No season since then has been able to put together those three factors. 2020 came the closest with impressive early melt ponding and the strongest AD and AO blocking since 2012. But the lack of a major storm in August and relaxing blocking as the month progressed allowed 2020 to finish just behind 2012. This season so far with lower pressures and colder temperatures from the late spring into early summer over the CAB is the opposite of 2020. So my guess is that as we head into early August 2012 will remain the leader. The 2007-2012 era was unique in that it featured consistent AD and AO blocking with plenty of May and June melt ponding. This quickly reversed in 2013 and continues to this day. The one thing we can say is that the historic Arctic sea ice thickness decline due to the loss from 2007-2012 of older ice has not reversed even with the more favorable summer conditions for retention since 2013. This has resulted in most of the seasons finishing in the 4.0 to 4.9 million sq km range. The finishes in the 6s and 7s haven’t been seen since the early 2000s. 2012 and 2020 were the only seasons to finish below 4million sq km.

Corona, Ozone Park, Brownsville, and Astoria already at 90°. https://nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc Corona Temp: 90°F 3h Precip: --

We saw something similar with December starting in 2011 following the colder 2000-2010 period.

March has seen the most extreme decadal shift to warmer for any month during the 2020s vs the 2010s.

Impressive to see HPN at 80° at 6am. White Plains CLEAR 80 75 84 NW5

Tomorrow looks like a good Ambrose Jet day with the record heat west of the sea breeze front.

The interesting thing is how much of a La Niña-like influence we are currently getting with the record warm pool from the IO over to the Maritime Continent and ENSO regions. Sure we are seeing the development of the El Nino standing wave which is expected. But as the forcing shifts back west of there, we keep getting these Southeast ridge amplifications with record heat which are more La Niña-like. So much more of an overlapping influence of the multiple forcing zones. Now this has a few potential ramifications going forward. First, we would expect the El Niño standing wave to get stronger as time progresses as the record ENSO SSTs increase. Second, the record mid-latitude SSTs could also carry the Niña-like signal for more interactions going forward. So a more active Southeast ridge pattern to go along with the Nino-ridge response further north over North America. This winter will present a good real time test of the new RONI scale. If the RONI can set records along with the expected ONI ones, then we can see if the scale will be valid by what the atmospheric response looks like. If the Aleutian low and low in the south to Mid-Atlantic is weaker than the 1997-1998 El Niño like in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024, then it may just be a new character of super El Niños and not related to RONI. In this case it would point out that the RONI may not be a valuable tool in such high end super El Niño events. But more for marginal La Ninas where the WPAC warm pool is more significant than the ENSO SSTs. Since we have seen the ridges getting stronger than the troughs regardless of the ENSO phase.

Yeah, when any of the 4 ENSO regions sets or ties a new all-time high the warming potential is there. So the exact location of the new record may not be as significant as the fact that a new record is being set in one or multiple the zones. 1997-1998 ONI records were focused in the eastern regions. The 2015-2016 were located in the central and western regions. 2023-2024 had its record closer to Nino 4 in the west with a tie of the all -time Nino 4 recently set in 2015-2016. 03DEC1997 26.2 3.9 28.2 3.1 28.8 2.1 29.2 0.6 18NOV2015 23.8 2.0 28.0 2.9 29.8 3.0 30.3 1.7 29NOV2023 24.2 2.1 27.2 2.0 28.7 2.0 30.3 1.7

That’s the ONI scale which is only around tenth of a degree C° warmer from a 27.8 to a 27.9 average than 1981-2010.

I don’t think the overall picture would change much since the 1981-2010 climo isn’t that much different along the equator in the Pacific ENSO regions than 1991-2020 is. Also note the current SST analysis is using the same scale between this July and next June forecast. So the SSTs at least in the model are warmer worldwide including the WPAC warm pool and Atlantic along with the IO than they are today.

Even for France it was more of a jump than a gradual shift. This introduces the idea of non-linear effects. Very difficult for planners to deal with unexpected and rapid shifts. The jump which began around 2003 was around 10-12°F warmer for the June monthly average below at times than their old 1970s to 1990s climate.

While the CanSIPS hasn’t had much skill with long range ENSO 500 mb patterns and temperatures over the CONUS, it will be interesting to see if it has some clue about the SST configuration. Notice how the much warmer the Indio-Pacific warm pool becomes following this super event than it initializes at the current time. My guess is the big baseline global temperature jump it has warms the SSTs. There is some cooling immediately near Japan. But the warm pool gets pushed a little east. Also notice how much warmer the Atlantic basin becomes. The extended CFS runs are doing something similar with the SSTs. The ENSO region would probably be the strangest look of all. Notice how skinny the developing La Niña cold tongue is by next June around the Galápagos Islands. It’s surrounded by continuing Nino-like waters just off equator.

You have to use the 1961-1990 base period or earlier which was in effect for the 1997-1998 super El Niño to directly compare the actual temperatures during 2023-2024. Using a more recent 1991-2020 period will show smaller departures for 2023-2024. The warmest CONUS winter rankings below are based on an even older base period starting in 1895. The 2023-2024 super El Niño event was the #1 warmest CONUS winter since 1895. The 2015-2016 super El Niño was the #3 warmest winter. While the 1997-1998 super El Niño was the 9th warmest CONUS winter. Contiguous U.S. Average Temperature December-February warmest winters since 1895 December 2023-February 2024 37.47°F 131 December 2025-February 2026 37.12°F 130 December 2015-February 2016 36.78°F 129 December 1999-February 2000 36.48°F 128 December 1991-February 1992 36.35°F 127 December 2011-February 2012 36.34°F 126 December 1998-February 1999 36.27°F 125 December 2019-February 2020 36.04°F 124 December 1997-February 1998 35.90°F 123 December 2016-February 2017 35.89°F 122 December 2001-February 2002 35.66°F 121 December 1994-February 1995 35.56°F 120 December 2005-February 2006 35.49°F 119 December 2004-February 2005 35.46°F 118 December 1953-February 1954 35.33°F 117 December 1933-February 1934 35.28°F 116 December 1982-February 1983 35.27°F 115 December 1952-February 1953 35.25°F 114 December 2022-February 2023 34.85°F 113 December 1920-February 1921 34.80°F 112 December 1980-February 1981 34.72°F 111* December 2021-February 2022 34.72°F 111* December 1975-February 1976 34.59°F 109

The more west based super El Niño in 2023-2024 had an even warmer winter than the east based 1997-1998 super El Niño. So exactly where the warmest SSTs end up with 2026-2027 that is forecast to be significantly stronger than both of those may not really matter that much. Plus I also don’t think the timing of how quickly the SSTs drop by the later portion of winter into spring will make much of a difference considering how record breaking the peak with this one will be.

We can see the evolution of top end heatwaves at Central Park as the tree canopy has continued to expand and cover the site. Prior to the mid 1990s when the new ASOS was established, Central Park was more in line with places like Newark and LGA during heatwaves reaching 103° and higher. There were times like July 1936 and 1977 when it was the warmest station around NYC Metro. So a station such as Newark would probably need to reach 104°-105° for NYC to have a shot at 100° with how dense the tree cover had become during the 2020s. NYC has gone a record breaking 5094 days not reaching 100° since July 2012. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 100 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2026-06-29 1 5094 2012-07-19 through 2026-06-29 2 4609 1881-11-11 through 1894-06-24 3 4022 1966-07-14 through 1977-07-17 4 4015 1980-07-22 through 1991-07-19 5 3261 1957-07-23 through 1966-06-26 6 3252 2001-08-10 through 2010-07-05 7 2904 1918-08-08 through 1926-07-20 8 2844 1903-09-19 through 1911-07-02 9 2219 1911-07-04 through 1917-07-30 10 1475 1944-08-12 through 1948-08-25 Data for June 1, 2025 through June 30, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NJ HARRISON COOP 103 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 103 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 102 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 101 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 101 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 101 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 101 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 101 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 100 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 100 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 100 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 99 Data for June 1, 2021 through June 30, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NJ HARRISON COOP 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 100 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 98 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 98 Data for July 1, 2011 through July 31, 2011 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108 NJ HARRISON COOP 107 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 Data for July 1, 2010 through July 31, 2010 Newark Thermometer Malfunctioned missing highest temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MINEOLA COOP 108 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106 NJ HARRISON COOP 106 CT DANBURY COOP 104 NJ CRANFORD COOP 104 NY WEST POINT COOP 103 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 103 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 103 Data for August 1, 2001 through August 31, 2001 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 105 NY MINEOLA COOP 105 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 104 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NJ HARRISON COOP 104 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 104 NJ CRANFORD COOP 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 103 Data for July 1, 1993 through July 31, 1993 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NJ WAYNE COOP 104 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 103 CT DANBURY COOP 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 102 Monthly Data for July 1980 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 104 NJ CRANFORD COOP 102 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 102 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 102 NJ LODI COOP 102 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 102 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 101 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 101 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 101 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 101 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 101 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 101 NY SCARSDALE COOP 101 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 100 NY WEST POINT COOP 100 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 100 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 100 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 99 Data for July 1, 1977 through July 31, 1977 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 103 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 102 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 102 Data for July 1, 1966 through July 31, 1966 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 107 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 105 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 104 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 104 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 104 NY WEST POINT COOP 103 NY MINEOLA COOP 103 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 103 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 103 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 103 Monthly Data for July 1955 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ ELIZABETH COOP 103 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 102 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 102 NJ PATERSON COOP 102 NY WEST POINT COOP 102 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 101 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 101 NJ RIDGEFIELD COOP 101 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 101 NY HEMPSTEAD MITCHELL FIELD AFB WBAN 101 CT WATERBURY CITY HALL COOP 101 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 100 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 100 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 100 Data for July 1, 1954 through July 31, 1954 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 103 NY WEST POINT COOP 103 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 102 NJ RIDGEFIELD COOP 102 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 102 NJ PATERSON COOP 102 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 102 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 101 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 101 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 101 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 100 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 100 Data for September 1, 1953 through September 30, 1953 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ PATERSON COOP 106 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 105 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 105 NY WEST POINT COOP 105 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 104 NY SUFFERN 2 E COOP 104 NY NORTHPORT COOP 103 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 103 NY CARMEL COOP 103 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 103 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 103 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 103 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 103 CT NORWALK COOP 102 NY SCARSDALE COOP 102 NY STEWART FIELD WBAN 102 NY WALDEN 2 NE COOP 102 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 102 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 102 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 102 Data for July 1, 1949 through July 31, 1949 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NJ PATERSON COOP 105 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 104 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 102 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 102 NJ RUTHERFORD COOP 102 CT NORWALK COOP 102 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 102 Data for August 1, 1948 through August 31, 1948 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CT NORWALK COOP 104 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 104 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 104 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 103 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 103 NJ RUTHERFORD COOP 103 NJ PATERSON COOP 103 NY HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY COOP 103 Data for July 1, 1936 through July 31, 1936 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 106 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 105 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 105 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 105 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 105 NJ PATERSON COOP 105 NY SCARSDALE COOP 105 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 105 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 105 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 104 NY FLUSHING COOP 104 NY WEST POINT COOP 104

I suspect the climate models aren’t good enough yet to detect all of the circulation changes that are resulting from warming the climate. We are warming the planet at faster rate than our current level of technology can keep up with So we get these repeated 500mb ridges which keep getting stuck in places for long durations leading to these increasing record heat extremes. It’s quite possible that the repeating omega block itself which is a part of the record heat pattern in Europe is also related to the warming climate. From The Atlantic: https://geography.dartmouth.edu/news/2025/01/climate-models-cant-explain-whats-happening-earth Climate Models Can’t Explain What’s Happening to Earth Fifty years into the project of modeling Earth's future climate, we still don't really know what's coming. Some places are warming with more ferocity than expected. Extreme events are taking scientists by surprise. Right now, as the bald reality of climate change bears down on human life, scientists are seeing more clearly the limits of our ability to predict the exact future we face. The coming decades may be far worse, and far weirder, than the best models anticipated. This is a problem. The world has warmed enough that city planners, public-health officials, insurance companies, farmers, and everyone else in the global economy want to know what's coming next for their patch of the planet. And telling them would require geographic precision that even the most advanced climate models don't yet have, as well as computing power that doesn't yet exist. Our picture of what is happening and probably will happen on Earth is less hazy than it's ever been. Still, the exquisitely local scale on which climate change is experienced and the global purview of our best tools to forecast its effects simply do not line up. Today's climate models very accurately describe the broad strokes of Earth's future. But warming has also now progressed enough that scientists are noticing unsettling mismatches between some of their predictions and real outcomes. Kai Kornhuber, a climate scientist at Columbia University, and his colleagues recently found that, on every continent except Antarctica, certain regions showed up as mysterious hot spots, suffering repeated heat waves worse than what any model could predict or explain. Across places where a third of humanity lives, actual daily temperature records are outpacing model predictions, according to forthcoming research from Dartmouth's Alexander Gottlieb and Justin Mankin. And a global jump in temperature that lasted from mid-2023 to this past June remains largely unexplained, a fact that troubles Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, although it doesn't entirely surprise him. "From the 1970s on, people have understood that all models are wrong," he told me. "But we've been working to make them more useful." In that sense, the project of climate modeling is a scientific process that's proceeding normally, even excellently. Only now the whole world needs very specific information to make crucial decisions, and they needed it, like, yesterday. That scientists don't have those answers might look like a failure of modeling, but really, it's a testament to how bad climate change has been permitted to get, and how quickly. The Earth is an unfathomably complex place, a nesting doll of systems within systems. Feedback loops among temperature, land, air, and water are made even more complicated by the fact that every place on Earth is a little different. Natural variability and human-driven warming further alter the rules that govern each of those fundamental interactions. Some of these systems such as cloud formation are notoriously poorly understood, despite having a major bearing on climate change. And, like clouds, many parts of the Earth system are just too localized for climate models to pick up on. "We have to approximate cloud formation because we don't have the small scales necessary to resolve individual water droplets coming together," Robert Rohde, the chief scientist at the open-source environmental-data nonprofit Berkeley Earth, told me. Similarly, models approximate topography, because the scale at which mountain ranges undulate is smaller than the resolution of global climate models, which tend to represent Earth in, at best, 100-square-kilometer pixels. That resolution is good for understanding phenomena such as Arctic warming over decades. But "you can't resolve a tornado worth anything," Rohde said. Models simply can't function on the scale at which people live, because assessing the impact of current emissions on the future world requires hundreds of years of simulations. Modeling the Earth at one-square-kilometer pixels would take "like a hundred thousand times more computation than we currently have," Schmidt, of NASA, told me. Still, global climate models can be of local use if combined with enough regional data and the correct expertise, and more people now want to use them that way, in order to understand risk to their properties and investments, or to make emergency plans and build infrastructure. "We are asking a lot of the models. More than we have in the past," Rohde said. For nonscientists, coaxing useful information from climate models requires professional help. Climate scientists have been working for years with New York City to help direct choices such as where to put infrastructure with sea-level rise in mind. But, Schmidt said, "there's just not enough scientists to be on the advisory board of every locality or every enterprise or every institution or every company," helping them access the right climate data or pick which models to rely on. (Some are better at simulating certain variables, such as day-to-night temperature variation, than others.) Often governments end up turning to private-sector companies that claim to be able to translate the data; Schmidt would rather see his own field produce work that is more directly useful to the public. At the same time, now that the models are running up against the reality of dramatic climate change, some of their limits are showing. When this scientific endeavor first started, the models were meant to imagine what global temperatures might look like if greenhouse-gas emissions rose, and they did a remarkable job of that. But models are, even now, less capable of accounting for secondary effects of those emissions that no one saw coming, and that now seem to be driving important change. Some of those variables are missing from climate models entirely. Trees and land are major sinks for carbon emissions, and that this fact might change is not accounted for in climate models. But it is changing: Trees and land absorbed much less carbon than normal in 2023, according to research published last October. In Finland, forests have stopped absorbing the majority of the carbon they once did, and recently became a net source of emissions, which, as The Guardian has reported, swamped all gains the country has made in cutting emissions from all other sectors since the early 1990s. The interactions of the ice sheets with the oceans are also largely missing from models, Schmidt told me, despite the fact that melting ice could change ocean temperatures, which could have significant knock-on effects. Changing ocean-temperature patterns are currently making climate modelers at NOAA rethink their models of El Niño and La Niña; the agency initially predicted that La Niña's cooling powers would kick in much sooner than it now appears they will. Biases in climate models go in both directions: Some overestimate risk from various factors, and others underestimate it. Some models "run hot," suggesting more warming than what actually plays out. But the recent findings about temperature extremes point in the other direction: The models may be underestimating future climate risks across several regions because of a yet-unclear limitation. And, Rohde said, underestimating risk is far more dangerous than overestimating it. To Kornhuber, too, that models already appear to be severely underestimating climate risk in several places is a bad sign for what's ahead and our capacity to see it coming. "It should be worrying that we are now moving into a world where we've kind of reached the limit of our physical understanding of the Earth system," Kornhuber said. While models struggle to capture the world we live in now, the planet is growing more alien to us, further from our reference ranges, as the climate keeps changing. If given unlimited time, science could probably develop models that more fully captured what we're watching play out. But by then it would be too late to do anything about it. Science is more than five decades into the modeling endeavor, and still our best tools can only get us so far. "At the end of the day, we are all making estimates of what's coming," Rohde said. "And there is no magic crystal ball to tell us the absolute truth." We're left instead with a partial picture, gestural in its scope, pointing toward a world we've never seen before. Access Original Article here. Illustration by The Atlantic WRITTEN BY Zoë Schlanger (The Atlantic) SHARE THIS

Yeah, it has been a great link to use during the heatwaves since it was established. They even have a records section from previous years and months. The Queens corridor into Interior Nassau at times has seen some of the strongest compressional heating east of the Hudson.

The present more Niña-like pattern is probably being enhanced by how much warmer the Indian Ocean through the Maritime Continent to around the Dateline is than all the other previous super El Niños at this time of year. So we get a westward extension of the forcing overlapping with the El Niño standing wave. Notice how the dates of the record warmth going back to March in the East coincided with the forcing moving from the Indian Ocean to the WPAC. Plus the interaction between the record SSTs in the Mid-latitudes could also be influencing the pattern. Even the state of the Arctic could be playing a role. The extent of the +30C pool is larger than 2023 at this time when we were having a much cooler El Nino-like pattern from the late spring into summer. So we are getting a head start on the Niña-like influences which waited until closer to the winter in December 2015 and January 2024 to occur. +30 C warm pool expansion since the late 1990s during the late spring of developing super El Niños

Corona, Queens is one of the prime spots for compressional heating.

The usual warm spots around the area have a shot at 104°-105° or warmer. Both the Euro and GFS have 850mb temperatures around +25 C Thursday and Friday. I believe July 2011 was the last time 850 mb temperatures reached this high.

NYC and other locations continuing the drought pattern which emerged back in September 2024. NYC hasn’t had a month with above average precipitation since May 2025. This will enhance the record heat potential around the area going into July. June 2026 MONTH TO DATE 3.39 4.41 -1.02 May 2026 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 635 PM EDT MON JUN 01 2026 ................................... ...THE CENTRAL PARK NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF MAY 2026... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1869 TO 2026 WEATHER OBSERVED NORMAL DEPART LAST YEAR`S VALUE DATE(S) VALUE FROM VALUE DATE(S) NORMAL ................................................................ TEMPERATURE (F) RECORD HIGH 99 05/19/1962 LOW 32 05/06/1891 HIGHEST 93 05/19 MM MM 85 05/03 LOWEST 45 05/03 MM MM 47 05/23 AVG. MAXIMUM 71.5 71.4 0.1 69.5 AVG. MINIMUM 54.9 55.0 -0.1 55.2 MEAN 63.2 63.2 0.0 62.3 DAYS MAX >= 90 2 1.0 1.0 0 DAYS MAX <= 32 0 0.0 0.0 0 DAYS MIN <= 32 0 0.0 0.0 0 DAYS MIN <= 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 PRECIPITATION (INCHES) RECORD MAXIMUM 10.24 1989 MINIMUM 0.30 1903 TOTALS 3.05 3.96 -0.91 6.58