bluewave

In a broad sense you can consider these seasonal models guidance, but the guidance is more of a correlation at times than an actual forecast. I showed in earlier posts how the 2023-2024 seasonal forecasts matched the correlations for Nino 3.4 and not the subset of super events over +2.0. About the only thing that the seasonal models have skill at in July are the Nino forecast plumes now that we are past the spring predictability barrier.

You have to remember that biases with these models are often situational on where the strongest ridges set up. The locations of the strongest ridges will vary based on La Niña, El Niño and the intensity of the event. This past winter none of the models forecast the record warmth out West where the ridge got stuck in place. The magnitude of the models missing the cold in the east was significantly smaller than the warmth in the west. About the only time in the last few years that the seasonal models were significantly too warm across the entire CONUS was back in January 2025. It was close to the 30th coldest January for the CONUS which was the coldest single month of the 2020s so far. But that miss was eclipsed by December 2024 being the 4th warmest on record.

Yeah, people have to remember that models can give us signals but the exact amounts and locations are going to vary. Especially when they are modeling convection where mesoscale boundaries and processes are at play. It’s better to think in ranges of possibilities so if you live in a flood prone area you can at least prepare. I can remember growing up when the models wouldn’t even give us any signal at times and some of the events came as a complete surprise.

Just remember that with our last super El Niño which was much weaker than this one, the seasonal forecasts including the ECWMF were significantly too cool for what verified from the long range forecasts. Forecast from August 2023 Verification

The location of the heaviest potential with HFEF max around the region usually shifts from run to run. But the signal is there mesoscale banding producing localized 5”+ amounts. Sometimes the mean chart is closer the actual amounts and other times the max does better. We never really know for sure. So it’s good to post the mean and max together to show the range of possibilities. The WPC and NWS use that as one of the models for their QPF forecasts. We can see a few spots so far are over 3”. But the nature of convection usually means that the models can’t really pinpoint the exact locations. The latest runs have shifted east a bit which is par for the course with convective rainfall forecasts. Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 423 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026 Day 1 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Jul 07 2026 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW JERSEY TO SOUTHEAST Massachusetts... ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Waves of low pressure ripple along a latitudinally wavering stationary front causing multiple rounds of training thunderstorms. During this period the front will likely be sprawled from central Ohio to central New Jersey. Two distinct shortwaves moving along this front will help track dual waves of low pressure eastward, each of which will locally enhance ascent (one across western Pennsylvania, the second from New Jersey into southern New England). Broad areas of ascent, instability with PW values exceeding 2" will be aligned near this front to yield a significant risk for heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding. The latest guidance mainly focuses the heaviest QPF over southern New England and portions of northern/coastal New jersey. Although the placement widely varies among the hires guidance there continues to be consensus for areal averages of 3 to 6 inches with local maximums of 8+ as reflected by the REFS and HREF PMM. The neighborhood probabilities reach above 40% for coastal New England and Long Island for 3"/24 hr and 15% for 5"/24 hr. Rainfall rates at times reaching 2-3"/hr combined with aligned mean wind/Corfidi vectors which are parallel to the boundary will drive training/backbuilding to support these heavy rainfall amounts. A Moderate Risk cover far northeast New Jersey, Southeast New York and Long Island, southern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island and portions of southeast Massachusetts.

The Euro update from a few minutes ago now has the strongest traditional ONI on record near +3.8 to +3.9. June set new all-time SST records for developing El Niños in all Nino regions except 1+2. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii All-Time June SST records in bold YR MON NINO1+2 ANOM NINO3 ANOM NINO4 ANOM NINO3.4 ANOM 2026 6 25.94 2.82 28.33 1.71 30.19 1.22 29.17 1.44 2023 6 25.63 2.50 27.88 1.26 29.55 0.58 28.57 0.84 2015 6 25.32 2.19 28.07 1.45 29.88 0.92 28.90 1.18 1997 6 26.12 3.00 28.13 1.51 29.23 0.26 28.82 1.09

The Euro ensemble spread narrowed at a little higher mean on the new July run to what looks like an around +3.8 to +3.9 on traditional ONI ensemble mean peak. July run June run

This is just like the old times when we get a deluge following record heat. The current heavy rain flash flood potential looks like it could be the most significant event here since the last ones in August 2024 and July 2023. Widespread 2-4” and localized pockets over 5”+ where the best training set up. This is also the most juiced that we have seen the SPC HREF since then. This will be the first chance NYC and some other spots see a wetter than average month since way back in May 2025. The heat over the next 10 days will shift to the West with the potential for over a 600 dm ridge. In the past when we have had 103°+ major heatwaves and heavy rains, the maximum temperatures remained the highest of the summer. So hopefully this will turn out to be the highest temperatures which reached 105°-106°of the entire summer. While this doesn’t rule out more 95° to around 100° heat, the patterns in the past haven’t been able to follow up with as much heat in the following extreme heat to very wet.

Things worked out really well here. They set off all the fireworks just before the heavy thunderstorms arrived. Picked up my heaviest downpour of the summer so far with 0.56 in a short time and wind gusts to 45mph. A great show plus some much needed rainfall.

More severe wind gust potential with the storms later as the nadocast did very well yesterday. data.nadocast.com/viewer.html Forecast for yesterday with the verification Forecast for later today into tonight

June set new all-time SST records for developing El Niños in all Nino regions except 1+2. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii All-Time June SST records in bold YR MON NINO1+2 ANOM NINO3 ANOM NINO4 ANOM NINO3.4 ANOM 2026 6 25.94 2.82 28.33 1.71 30.19 1.22 29.17 1.44 2023 6 25.63 2.50 27.88 1.26 29.55 0.58 28.57 0.84 2015 6 25.32 2.19 28.07 1.45 29.88 0.92 28.90 1.18 1997 6 26.12 3.00 28.13 1.51 29.23 0.26 28.82 1.09

This is actually the heaviest rainfall signal that we have seen from the models in quite some time.

Great video of the severe storms moving in yesterday from a boat in New York Harbor.

This time stations like Newark and Harrison had to reach 105°-106° for NYC to finally reach 100°. LGA also made it to 104°. This suggests that NYC would have probably been at least 104° if the ASOS hadn’t become overgrown by the trees since the 1990s. This matches the past times our area experienced 103°+ heat before the tree growth near the castle became an issue. Monthly Data for July 2026 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ HARRISON COOP 106 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 103 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 102 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 102 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 102 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 101 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 101 NY CENTERPORT COOP 101 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 101 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 100

We have been experiencing record heat here in the East at times going back to March related to the record breaking subtropical tropical ridges from 30N to 45N. Most times very strong to super El Niños feature more troughs and low pressure at these latitudes during this time of year. The ridges are usually further north on the continent in Canada. This has lead to the mid-latitude Atlantic SSTs joining the very warm mid-latitude Pacific SSTs. This is probably related to the ongoing expansion of the subtropical ridges over the years. Plus we have very extensive drought in the CONUS at this time. Also when forcing shifts back to the IO and MC we tend to see the peak warmth and ridging in the East. The reason the -PDO and +AMO pattern has been so persistent in recent years is due to these strong ridges leading to lighter winds and more sunshine warming the ocean surface below.

This is the first time that a number of stations in the East approached their all-time warmest temperature with a developing super El Niño. Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2026-07-02 1 104.0 1933-08-01 through 1933-08-01 2 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 - 103.0 1995-07-16 through 1995-07-16 - 103.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 103.0 1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10 3 102.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 - 102.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 102.0 1991-07-20 through 1991-07-20 - 102.0 1991-07-19 through 1991-07-19 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for New York-LGA Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1939-10-07 to 2026-07-02 1 107.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 2 104.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 104.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 - 104.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 3 103.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 103.0 1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15 - 103.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26 4 102.0 2006-08-02 through 2006-08-02 - 102.0 1953-09-02 through 1953-09-02 5 101.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1873-12-04 to 2026-07-02 1 106.0 1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07 2 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 104.0 1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10 3 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 - 103.0 2010-07-07 through 2010-07-07 - 103.0 1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15 - 103.0 1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04 - 103.0 1936-07-09 through 1936-07-09 - 103.0 1930-07-21 through 1930-07-21 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1888-01-01 to 2026-07-02 1 106.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 2 105.0 1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07 3 104.0 1918-08-06 through 1918-08-06 4 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2012-07-07 through 2012-07-07 - 103.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 103.0 1898-07-03 through 1898-07-03 5 102.0 2011-07-21 through 2011-07-21 - 102.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 102.0 1988-07-17 through 1988-07-17

The 105° at Newark was the 2nd warmest temperature on record at the station. Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 108.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 2 105.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 105.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 - 105.0 1993-07-10 through 1993-07-10 - 105.0 1993-07-08 through 1993-07-08 - 105.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 105.0 1953-09-02 through 1953-09-02 - 105.0 1949-07-04 through 1949-07-04 - 105.0 1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07 3 104.0 2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18 - 104.0 1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15 - 104.0 1993-07-09 through 1993-07-09 - 104.0 1936-07-09 through 1936-07-09 4 103.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 103.0 2021-06-30 through 2021-06-30 - 103.0 2011-07-21 through 2011-07-21 - 103.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 103.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 - 103.0 1993-07-07 through 1993-07-07 - 103.0 1954-07-31 through 1954-07-31 - 103.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26 - 103.0 1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10 - 103.0 1911-07-03 through 1911-07-03 - 103.0 1901-07-02 through 1901-07-02

Yeah, we have only really had 6 years reaching 103°+ by July 4th. So the sample size is pretty small. But at least none of the previous years made it above 102° the rest of the summer. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Highest Temperatures June 1st through July 4th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1966-07-04 105 0 - 1949-07-04 105 0 2025-07-04 103 0 - 2021-07-04 103 0 - 1911-07-04 103 0 - 1901-07-04 103 0 Maximum temperature after July 4th 1966….100° 1949….102° 2025…101° 2021….99° 1911…..102° 1901…..95°

One of the few times that a forecast for stalled out backdoor cold front with a wave of low pressure by next Monday is a welcome sight.

I was walking along the shore one day back in Long Beach and one of them flew very low right over the beach at Pacific BLVD. They come up on your position silently and you only hear the engine roar once they are past. It was a pretty wild experience even compared to all the beach parties back in those days.

Busy day at the shore with the lifeguards having to temporarily close the ocean to swimming where the sharks are making appearances.

105° now at Corona still north of the seabreeze.

The South Shore beaches in the upper 70s are the place to be on days like these. FW3143 West Gilgo Observation Time: 07/02/26 @ 14:05 EDT 18:05 UTC Elevation: 6 ft OK Weather Conditions Temperature: 78 °F Dew Point: 71 °F Humidity: 80 % Wind: SE at 10 MPH Peak Gust: 15 MPH 24 Hour Max/Min Events Max Temperature: 78 °F Min Temperature: 69 °F Max RH: 91 % Min RH: 80 % Max Dew Point: 72 °F Min Dew Point: 66 °F Max Gust: 29 MPH

The CONUS finally surpassed March 2012 in 2026. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/1/3/1895-2026

New Brunswick 103°. ▼ New Brunswick NJ 2026-07-02 13:50 Mesonet 103 70