bluewave

The South Shore beaches in the upper 70s are the place to be on days like these. FW3143 West Gilgo Observation Time: 07/02/26 @ 14:05 EDT 18:05 UTC Elevation: 6 ft OK Weather Conditions Temperature: 78 °F Dew Point: 71 °F Humidity: 80 % Wind: SE at 10 MPH Peak Gust: 15 MPH 24 Hour Max/Min Events Max Temperature: 78 °F Min Temperature: 69 °F Max RH: 91 % Min RH: 80 % Max Dew Point: 72 °F Min Dew Point: 66 °F Max Gust: 29 MPH

The CONUS finally surpassed March 2012 in 2026. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/national/time-series/110/tavg/1/3/1895-2026

New Brunswick 103°. ▼ New Brunswick NJ 2026-07-02 13:50 Mesonet 103 70

Corona at 104° and Glendale/Maspeth 103°.

It does happen occasionally and probably will again one of these years. But it’s a very low probability of success forecast any given year since 1993-1994. Only 4 seasons fell in this range from 1993-1994 to 2025-2026 vs 18 seasons from 1960-1961 to 1992-1993. NYC used to be clustered much closer to the middle 19-30 range in the previous 33 year period. So it was a good bet that you would be correct more often than in recent years calling for seasonal snowfall closer to the mid range or average of the distribution. These days most years are skewed toward the extreme ends of well above or well below average snowfall. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY 19-30”seasons bolded Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-2026 0.0 T 7.2 13.9 22.3 T 0.0 43.4 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 2.8 3.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 12.9 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 7.5 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 1994-1995 0.0 T T 0.2 11.6 T T 11.8 1993-1994 0.0 T 6.9 12.0 26.4 8.1 0.0 53.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1992-1993 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 10.7 11.9 0.0 24.5 1991-1992 0.0 T 0.7 1.5 1.0 9.4 T 12.6 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 7.2 8.4 9.1 0.2 0.0 24.9 1989-1990 0.0 4.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 3.1 0.6 13.4 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1 1987-1988 0.0 1.1 2.6 13.9 1.5 T 0.0 19.1 1986-1987 0.0 T 0.6 13.6 7.0 1.9 0.0 23.1 1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0 1984-1985 0.0 T 5.5 8.4 10.0 0.2 T 24.1 1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.9 21.5 T 0.8 27.2 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.8 0.4 0.7 9.6 24.6 1980-1981 0.0 T 2.8 8.0 T 8.6 0.0 19.4 1979-1980 T 0.0 3.5 2.0 2.7 4.6 T 12.8 1978-1979 0.0 2.2 0.5 6.6 20.1 T T 29.4 1977-1978 0.0 0.2 0.4 20.3 23.0 6.8 T 50.7 1976-1977 0.0 T 5.1 13.0 5.8 0.6 T 24.5 1975-1976 0.0 T 2.3 5.6 5.0 4.4 T 17.3 1974-1975 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 10.6 0.3 T 13.1 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 2.8 7.8 9.4 3.2 0.3 23.5 1972-1973 T T T 1.8 0.8 0.2 T 2.8 1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.4 11.4 T 1.3 0.4 15.5 1969-1970 0.0 T 6.8 8.4 6.4 4.0 T 25.6 1968-1969 0.0 T 7.0 1.0 16.6 5.6 0.0 30.2 1967-1968 0.0 3.2 5.5 3.6 1.1 6.1 0.0 19.5 1966-1967 0.0 0.0 9.1 1.4 23.6 17.4 T 51.5 1965-1966 T 0.0 T 11.6 9.8 T 0.0 21.4 1964-1965 0.0 0.0 3.1 14.8 2.5 2.8 1.2 24.4 1963-1964 0.0 T 11.3 13.3 14.1 6.0 T 44.7 1962-1963 T T 4.5 5.3 3.7 2.8 T 16.3 1961-1962 0.0 T 7.7 0.6 9.6 0.2 T 18.1 1960-1961 T 0.0 18.6 16.7 18.2 1.2 T 54.7

As long as you don’t forecast an average snowfall season around NYC Metro you should do OK.

Our seasonal snowfall since 1993-1994 around NYC Metro has shifted to all or nothing. Meaning nearly all the seasons have been well above or well below average. Very few fall in the middle anymore like they used to prior to the last 30 years. So our decadal average snowfall has been determined which category in the all or nothing game wins out. Long term since the 1800s snowfall has been declining as winters and springs get warmer.

Lefferts/South Ozone Park now at 100.

December 2000 was cold and snowy in NYC. The real outlier years for lack of snow and warmth were 2001 and 2006. The December 11 year snowfall average from 2000-2010 was 8.9” in NYC which was the best since the 1940s. December 1989 was a whole different story for extreme cold. It was more like a typical LIA winter than anything we have ever seen in modern times. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Coldest Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1917 25.0 0 - 1876 25.0 0 2 1989 25.9 0 3 1880 26.4 0 4 1872 26.7 0 5 1926 28.9 0 6 1871 29.0 0 7 1958 29.3 0 8 1955 29.7 0 - 1910 29.7 0 - 1886 29.7 0 9 1976 29.9 0 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Coldest Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1989 7.5 0 2 1917 12.2 0 3 1963 12.9 0 4 1958 13.0 0 5 1970 14.3 0 6 1980 15.0 0 7 1910 15.9 0 8 1904 16.0 0 9 1933 16.2 0 10 1976 16.3 0

They just set the new all-time warmest 10am temperature at the station before the sea breeze arrives. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&month=all&sday=0702&eday=1231&var=max_tmpf&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Newark is currently 3° cooler at 10am. SXUS51 KOKX 021357 OSOOKX New York City Metropolitan Area Weather Roundup National Weather Service New York NY 1000 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2026 CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Central Park SUNNY 91 71 51 W6 30.02S HX 97 LaGuardia Arpt MOSUNNY 90 69 50 NW10 29.98R HX 94 Kennedy Intl MOSUNNY 96 69 41 NW10 29.99R HX 102 Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 95 69 42 W9 29.99S HX 100 Teterboro Arpt SUNNY 93 71 48 VRB6 29.98S HX 100 Bronx Lehman C N/A 90 70 51 NW7 N/A HX 95 Queens College N/A 91 68 46 N10 N/A HX 95 Breezy Point N/A 82 N/A N/A W7 N/A Brooklyn Coll N/A 91 68 46 N8 N/A HX 95 Staten Island N/A 93 70 46 NW5 N/A HX 99

2012 had record May into June early melt ponding with the strong AD and AO blocking continuing through July. Then came the record early August storm leading to the steepest sea ice decline ever during the first half of August. No season since then has been able to put together those three factors. 2020 came the closest with impressive early melt ponding and the strongest AD and AO blocking since 2012. But the lack of a major storm in August and relaxing blocking as the month progressed allowed 2020 to finish just behind 2012. This season so far with lower pressures and colder temperatures from the late spring into early summer over the CAB is the opposite of 2020. So my guess is that as we head into early August 2012 will remain the leader. The 2007-2012 era was unique in that it featured consistent AD and AO blocking with plenty of May and June melt ponding. This quickly reversed in 2013 and continues to this day. The one thing we can say is that the historic Arctic sea ice thickness decline due to the loss from 2007-2012 of older ice has not reversed even with the more favorable summer conditions for retention since 2013. This has resulted in most of the seasons finishing in the 4.0 to 4.9 million sq km range. The finishes in the 6s and 7s haven’t been seen since the early 2000s. 2012 and 2020 were the only seasons to finish below 4million sq km.

Corona, Ozone Park, Brownsville, and Astoria already at 90°. https://nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc Corona Temp: 90°F 3h Precip: --

We saw something similar with December starting in 2011 following the colder 2000-2010 period.

March has seen the most extreme decadal shift to warmer for any month during the 2020s vs the 2010s.

Impressive to see HPN at 80° at 6am. White Plains CLEAR 80 75 84 NW5

Tomorrow looks like a good Ambrose Jet day with the record heat west of the sea breeze front.

The interesting thing is how much of a La Niña-like influence we are currently getting with the record warm pool from the IO over to the Maritime Continent and ENSO regions. Sure we are seeing the development of the El Nino standing wave which is expected. But as the forcing shifts back west of there, we keep getting these Southeast ridge amplifications with record heat which are more La Niña-like. So much more of an overlapping influence of the multiple forcing zones. Now this has a few potential ramifications going forward. First, we would expect the El Niño standing wave to get stronger as time progresses as the record ENSO SSTs increase. Second, the record mid-latitude SSTs could also carry the Niña-like signal for more interactions going forward. So a more active Southeast ridge pattern to go along with the Nino-ridge response further north over North America. This winter will present a good real time test of the new RONI scale. If the RONI can set records along with the expected ONI ones, then we can see if the scale will be valid by what the atmospheric response looks like. If the Aleutian low and low in the south to Mid-Atlantic is weaker than the 1997-1998 El Niño like in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024, then it may just be a new character of super El Niños and not related to RONI. In this case it would point out that the RONI may not be a valuable tool in such high end super El Niño events. But more for marginal La Ninas where the WPAC warm pool is more significant than the ENSO SSTs. Since we have seen the ridges getting stronger than the troughs regardless of the ENSO phase.

Yeah, when any of the 4 ENSO regions sets or ties a new all-time high the warming potential is there. So the exact location of the new record may not be as significant as the fact that a new record is being set in one or multiple the zones. 1997-1998 ONI records were focused in the eastern regions. The 2015-2016 were located in the central and western regions. 2023-2024 had its record closer to Nino 4 in the west with a tie of the all -time Nino 4 recently set in 2015-2016. 03DEC1997 26.2 3.9 28.2 3.1 28.8 2.1 29.2 0.6 18NOV2015 23.8 2.0 28.0 2.9 29.8 3.0 30.3 1.7 29NOV2023 24.2 2.1 27.2 2.0 28.7 2.0 30.3 1.7

That’s the ONI scale which is only around tenth of a degree C° warmer from a 27.8 to a 27.9 average than 1981-2010.

I don’t think the overall picture would change much since the 1981-2010 climo isn’t that much different along the equator in the Pacific ENSO regions than 1991-2020 is. Also note the current SST analysis is using the same scale between this July and next June forecast. So the SSTs at least in the model are warmer worldwide including the WPAC warm pool and Atlantic along with the IO than they are today.

Even for France it was more of a jump than a gradual shift. This introduces the idea of non-linear effects. Very difficult for planners to deal with unexpected and rapid shifts. The jump which began around 2003 was around 10-12°F warmer for the June monthly average below at times than their old 1970s to 1990s climate.

While the CanSIPS hasn’t had much skill with long range ENSO 500 mb patterns and temperatures over the CONUS, it will be interesting to see if it has some clue about the SST configuration. Notice how the much warmer the Indio-Pacific warm pool becomes following this super event than it initializes at the current time. My guess is the big baseline global temperature jump it has warms the SSTs. There is some cooling immediately near Japan. But the warm pool gets pushed a little east. Also notice how much warmer the Atlantic basin becomes. The extended CFS runs are doing something similar with the SSTs. The ENSO region would probably be the strangest look of all. Notice how skinny the developing La Niña cold tongue is by next June around the Galápagos Islands. It’s surrounded by continuing Nino-like waters just off equator.

You have to use the 1961-1990 base period or earlier which was in effect for the 1997-1998 super El Niño to directly compare the actual temperatures during 2023-2024. Using a more recent 1991-2020 period will show smaller departures for 2023-2024. The warmest CONUS winter rankings below are based on an even older base period starting in 1895. The 2023-2024 super El Niño event was the #1 warmest CONUS winter since 1895. The 2015-2016 super El Niño was the #3 warmest winter. While the 1997-1998 super El Niño was the 9th warmest CONUS winter. Contiguous U.S. Average Temperature December-February warmest winters since 1895 December 2023-February 2024 37.47°F 131 December 2025-February 2026 37.12°F 130 December 2015-February 2016 36.78°F 129 December 1999-February 2000 36.48°F 128 December 1991-February 1992 36.35°F 127 December 2011-February 2012 36.34°F 126 December 1998-February 1999 36.27°F 125 December 2019-February 2020 36.04°F 124 December 1997-February 1998 35.90°F 123 December 2016-February 2017 35.89°F 122 December 2001-February 2002 35.66°F 121 December 1994-February 1995 35.56°F 120 December 2005-February 2006 35.49°F 119 December 2004-February 2005 35.46°F 118 December 1953-February 1954 35.33°F 117 December 1933-February 1934 35.28°F 116 December 1982-February 1983 35.27°F 115 December 1952-February 1953 35.25°F 114 December 2022-February 2023 34.85°F 113 December 1920-February 1921 34.80°F 112 December 1980-February 1981 34.72°F 111* December 2021-February 2022 34.72°F 111* December 1975-February 1976 34.59°F 109

The more west based super El Niño in 2023-2024 had an even warmer winter than the east based 1997-1998 super El Niño. So exactly where the warmest SSTs end up with 2026-2027 that is forecast to be significantly stronger than both of those may not really matter that much. Plus I also don’t think the timing of how quickly the SSTs drop by the later portion of winter into spring will make much of a difference considering how record breaking the peak with this one will be.