bluewave

Plenty of damage to the trees and power lines out there.

First 75+ mph gusts for that area in a while. Massachusetts... ...Barnstable County... Wellfleet 77 MPH 0706 AM 02/23 WXFLOW Hatch Beach 71 MPH 0912 AM 02/23 WXFLOW Chatham 70 MPH 0813 AM 02/23 WXFLOW Hyannis AP 69 MPH 0733 AM 02/23 ASOS West Dennis 68 MPH 0909 AM 02/23 WXFLOW Chapin 65 MPH 0816 AM 02/23 WXFLOW West Falmouth 62 MPH 0832 AM 02/23 WXFLOW Kalmus 60 MPH 0904 AM 02/23 WXFLOW Otis AFB 58 MPH 0856 AM 02/23 AWOS ...Bristol County... Horseneck Beach - The Knubbl 63 MPH 0859 AM 02/23 WXFLOW New Bedford AP 62 MPH 0748 AM 02/23 ASOS 1 NE Somerset 60 MPH 0923 AM 02/23 ...Dukes County... Vineyard Station 64 MPH 0936 AM 02/23 WXFLOW ...Essex County... Children's Island 62 MPH 0742 AM 02/23 WXFLOW ...Nantucket County... Nantucket AP 83 MPH 0906 AM 02/23 ASOS Nantucket Harbor 61 MPH 0917 AM 02/23 WXFLOW ...Norfolk County... Milton (Blue Hill) 61 MPH 0656 AM 02/23 CWOP ...Plymouth County... Hull YC 70 MPH 0908 AM 02/23 WXFLOW

The SPC HREF been one of our best performing pieces of guidance especially in extreme events. It’s what helped to give the NWS the confidence to issue its great forecasts the last few days with this event. Just shows how far weather forecasting has come. When I was growing up in the 1970s and 1980s many times we didn’t even know a big snowstorm was coming even a day before. I would say the last major model miss was 1-25-00 when the 12z runs the day before were all offshore with no snow for many places that got record snow.

The SPC HREF had the right idea somewhere between its mean and max. The globals and even some models like the RGEM struggle with such dynamic systems. I have often noticed that the best banding usually is just NW of where the globals and even some regionals show.

This site works really well without degrading the quality of the photos. https://optimole.com/image-compressor/

I jokingly said to Allsnow a few years back that it would take a volcanic eruption for Central Park to measure 50”. I thought it would be a challenge before this winter began but I never speak in absolutes or use terms like impossible. We’ll see where they land after today as they came in this event with 22.3” on the season. Also never said it was impossible to have another colder winter just that it was a struggle over the last decade with how warm it was. I am very happy with how this winter has turned out as we really needed a good one after the long string of disappointing winters. You seem like a very angry person from reading many of your posts.

Closing in on 25” there now.

Freehold at 22.2”.

Harrison at 14.0”.

Seeing reports from the OKX obs page that EWR is at 18.0” with JFK and LGA at 15.0”. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kewr https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kjfk

72 mph gusts out on Cape Cod.

3” in one hour.

Thundersnow earlier in NY Harbor.

It’s great to see that winter finally put in a cameo appearance this year compared to what we have been getting recently.

Yeah, roughly similar for the entire OKX forecast zones. The statistics below go back to 2010. It’s good to finally see an event in late February which hasn’t happened since 2010. February has really been more frontloaded for these major 12”+ events. Roughly 2 week snowfall periods for the 2010's and number of 12"+ snowstorms Oct 29-Nov 15.....3 Nov 16-Nov 30....0 Dec 1- Dec 15.....0 Dec 16-Dec 31....3 Jan1-Jan 15.......4 Jan16-Jan 31.....7 Feb 1-Feb 15.....7 Feb 16-Feb 28...1 Mar 1- Mar 15....6 Mar 16-Mar 31...1 Apr 1-Apr 16.....0 Individual events and the highest snowfall totals 2026 Jan 25-26….Bridgeport…15.3” 2022 Jan 28-29….Islip….24.7 2021 Jan 31-Feb 2....Blomingdale, NJ.....26.1 2020 Dec 16-17 East Tremont, NY....12.4 2019 Mar 3-4...Monroe, CT....12.0 2018 Nov 15....Mount Hope, NY.......18.3 Mar 21-22...Patchogue, NY......20.1 Mar 13...Southampton,NY.....18.3 Mar 8....New Farfield, CT..........26.8 Mar 2...Monroe, NY.................14.0 Jan 4...Islip, NY.......................15.8 2017 Mar 14...Montgomery, NY.......23.5 Feb 9...Selden, NY...................16.0 Jan 7...Orient, NY....................12.5 2016 Feb 5...Setauket, NY................12.0 Jan 23..JFK,NY.........................30.5 2015 Feb 2..New Faifield, CT............12.0 Jan 26-27....Orient,NY.............28.5 2014 Feb 13-14...Roselle, NJ............16.7 Jan 21-22....Centerreach,NY....14.0 Jan 2-3......Lindenhurst, NY.....12.5 2013 Mar 8....Harriman,NY..............15.0 Feb 8....Upton, NY..................30.9 2012 Nov 7-8.....Monroe, CT..........13.5 Jan 21......North Haven, CT....12.0 2011 Oct 29.....Harriman, NY.........16.0 Jan 26-27...NYC................... 19.0 Jan 11-12.......Meriden, CT....29.0 2010 Feb 25-26...Mount Hope, NY...27.5 Dec 26........Elizabeth, NJ........31.8 Feb. 10.....Sound Beach, NY....16.2 2009 Dec 19-20....Upton, NY..........26.3

First blizzard warning in any of the OKX zones since January 2022. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=92&phenomena=BZ&significance=W&e=all&_opt_edate=on&edate=2026%2F02%2F21&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

How have you been doing? Everyone has been asking about you. Really glad you are back.

I like the model blend idea of a Monmouth and Ocean County NJ to Suffolk County jackpot going potentially 18”+ in those areas. The storm track near or just east of the 40/70 benchmark usually favors this scenario. Most other areas are looking like a solid 12”+. The blizzard conditions will make measurement a challenge and there will be the best drifting potential in years.

That one actually came far enough west for some brief snow pellets in Long Beach when the best banding was parked over NNJ. Still one of my favorite blizzards even though I missed the heaviest. Some of the best drifting in Long Beach since February 1978. Long Island probably holds the edge for jackpots over NNJ since many of these systems loop just east of the benchmark with the best banding from Monmouth County across Suffolk County.

Boxing Day jackpotted west of NYC since it tracked west of the benchmark and brushed Cape Cod. https://www.weather.gov/okx/Meteorology12262010

Excellent article. Thanks very much for posting. The AIFS single was really amplified with this system since later last weekend. I like that it corrects the OP Euro and ensembles suppression tendency we have often seen since the Euro upgrade around 2015 with coastal storms along the East Coast. Open Snow also put out the best seasonal long range winter forecast that I have seen for this winter back in November. Although the write-up didn’t mention it, wonder if they have an experimental in house AI seasonal forecast tool which they didn’t want to mention yet? https://opensnow.com/news/post/november-update-2025-2026-winter-forecast-preview Skilful global seasonal predictions from a machine learning weather model trained on reanalysis data https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-025-01198-3

Yeah, the Euro AI single meets in the middle between the GFS and other guidance. Has the 2” liquid line from MTP to Ocean county NJ. If that verified exactly, then we could see one primary band further west from Monmouth out into Suffolk. So with the great lifting someone could potentially go 18”+. Would like to see the other guidance come on board by 12z tomorrow to have confidence that some areas could reach those totals. But we don’t have to know for sure until the 12z runs tomorrow.

That’s what everyone want’s to see starting at 0z. Since the NAM is still outside its best under 48 hr range and it hasn’t had an update since 2017. Plus the OP GFS is still more amped and further west than the other operational guidance. But I can see a meet in the middle scenario where we come in under than the OP GFS snowfall totals but higher than some of the other operational runs. We should have a good idea after the 0z to 12z guidance. Sometimes the max banding potential can sneak a little more west than the average of the guidance.

The Canadian Ensemble mean also has 12”+ potential getting closer to NYC.

Even the AI GFS is further east than the OP with a slightly slower capture and negative tilt.