bluewave

The Google Deep Mind has pulled ahead of the National Hurricane Center. https://arstechnica.com/science/2025/11/googles-new-weather-model-impressed-during-its-first-hurricane-season/

The EC AIFS and EPS AIFS are now the two highest scoring models.

That late March 2018 snowstorm back on the South Shore was one of my late season favorites. It was really gorgeous when the sun first came out and all the wet snow was started falling from the trees. My all-time late season favorite was the April 6th, 1982 blizzard. Was my only time experiencing afternoon temperatures in the 20s and blizzard conditions in April. Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY After March 20th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2026-02-10 18.4 2018-03-21 through 2018-03-22 0 17.0 1967-03-21 through 1967-03-22 0 16.0 1982-04-06 through 1982-04-07 0 - 16.0 1982-04-05 through 1982-04-06 0 15.0 1967-03-22 through 1967-03-23 0 14.9 2018-03-20 through 2018-03-21 0 8.5 1996-04-09 through 1996-04-10 0 8.0 1974-03-29 through 1974-03-30 0 - 8.0 1974-03-28 through 1974-03-29 0 6.0 1984-03-28 through 1984-03-29 0

Newark ends its longest under 40° day streak since 2004. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kewr Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 40 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 38 1866-12-25 through 1867-01-31 2 37 1878-12-16 through 1879-01-21 3 35 1945-01-05 through 1945-02-08 - 35 1874-12-30 through 1875-02-02 4 33 1876-12-14 through 1877-01-15 5 29 1978-01-27 through 1978-02-24 6 28 1985-01-15 through 1985-02-11 - 28 1881-01-11 through 1881-02-07 - 28 1862-01-10 through 1862-02-06 7 27 1903-12-26 through 1904-01-21 8 26 1902-01-28 through 1902-02-22 - 26 1901-01-23 through 1901-02-17 - 26 1880-12-15 through 1881-01-09 9 25 1920-01-02 through 1920-01-26 - 25 1855-12-25 through 1856-01-18 10 23 1936-01-23 through 1936-02-14 - 23 1905-01-21 through 1905-02-12 11 22 1924-02-04 through 1924-02-25 - 22 1918-01-16 through 1918-02-06 - 22 1912-01-25 through 1912-02-15 - 22 1904-12-01 through 1904-12-22 - 22 1856-01-20 through 1856-02-10 12 21 2000-01-17 through 2000-02-06 - 21 1948-01-22 through 1948-02-11 - 21 1899-01-27 through 1899-02-16 - 21 1895-01-27 through 1895-02-16 - 21 1893-01-03 through 1893-01-23 - 21 1882-12-28 through 1883-01-17 13 20 2004-01-14 through 2004-02-02 - 20 1976-12-21 through 1977-01-09 - 20 1940-01-16 through 1940-02-04 - 20 1888-01-14 through 1888-02-02 - 20 1846-02-12 through 1846-03-03 14 19 2026-01-23 through 2026-02-10 - 19 2003-01-14 through 2003-02-01 - 19 1980-12-31 through 1981-01-18 - 19 1966-01-22 through 1966-02-09 - 19 1939-12-26 through 1940-01-13 - 19 1886-12-25 through 1887-01-12

Places like Islip are right at their long term average snowfall since 1963-1964. This is a big win in my book. It has been very challenging to get near or above average seasonal snowfall since 2018-2019. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 0.5 4.5 9.2 9.1 4.8 0.7 28.7 2025-2026 0.0 T 12.5 14.9 1.2 M M 28.6 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.7 6.9 0.0 0.0 11.7 2023-2024 0.0 T T 3.1 7.8 0.0 0.0 10.9 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.4 T 3.0 1.6 0.0 5.0 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 37.0 2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7 2012-2013 0.0 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 46.9 2011-2012 0.3 0.0 T 3.8 0.6 T 0.0 4.7 2010-2011 0.0 T 14.9 34.4 3.9 2.1 T 55.3 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 25.3 6.4 21.7 0.4 0.0 53.8 2008-2009 0.0 T 10.4 8.9 3.3 13.6 T 36.2 2007-2008 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.8 7.3 T 0.0 10.7 2006-2007 0.0 T 0.0 1.0 4.2 3.8 T 9.0 2005-2006 0.0 0.5 7.6 4.7 19.9 3.2 0.1 36.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 7.0 21.5 17.0 13.3 0.0 58.8 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 15.5 19.1 1.1 5.7 0.0 41.4 2002-2003 0.0 1.0 16.0 2.6 26.3 3.7 5.0 54.6 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 T T 0.0 3.7 2000-2001 T 0.0 10.8 9.2 8.6 10.3 T 38.9 1999-2000 0.0 T 0.4 5.8 2.6 0.2 T 9.0 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.5 2.8 9.1 T 19.4 1997-1998 0.0 T 1.0 T T 1.6 T 2.6 1996-1997 0.0 T 1.2 3.3 2.2 3.7 2.0 12.4 1995-1996 0.0 3.0 13.3 20.2 19.0 12.0 9.6 77.1 1994-1995 0.0 T T T 5.1 T 0.0 5.1 1993-1994 0.0 T 3.3 8.8 20.0 5.0 0.0 37.1 1992-1993 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.3 10.9 13.3 0.0 28.6 1991-1992 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.3 1.5 7.6 T 13.4 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 4.0 3.6 4.3 1.9 0.0 13.8 1989-1990 0.0 7.6 0.2 2.0 2.0 4.2 3.0 19.0 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 10.4 4.4 1.2 3.0 T 19.0 1987-1988 0.0 1.1 4.2 10.7 0.1 3.4 0.0 19.5 1986-1987 0.0 T 3.4 8.8 8.6 1.7 0.0 22.5 1985-1986 0.0 T 2.1 2.6 10.4 0.1 T 15.2 1984-1985 0.0 T 4.7 13.5 8.7 T T 26.9 1983-1984 0.0 T 2.6 11.9 T 13.0 0.0 27.5 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.2 1.5 26.1 T 1.1 31.9 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 1.0 18.1 0.3 T 16.0 35.4 1980-1981 0.0 T 0.5 13.2 T 7.1 0.0 20.8 1979-1980 T 0.0 1.5 4.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 9.0 1978-1979 0.0 4.0 T 6.9 17.2 T T 28.1 1977-1978 0.0 0.8 0.2 27.7 28.9 10.4 T 68.0 1976-1977 0.0 T 6.2 11.2 6.6 4.0 0.0 28.0 1975-1976 0.0 T 11.0 7.8 7.5 3.9 0.0 30.2 1974-1975 0.0 0.5 T 1.8 11.0 1.2 T 14.5 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 T 9.0 17.0 8.0 T 34.0 1972-1973 T 0.0 T 1.5 3.0 T T 4.5 1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.1 12.5 1.0 T 15.6 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.3 2.0 1.0 2.5 18.9 1969-1970 0.0 T 12.0 7.0 7.0 1.0 T 27.0 1968-1969 0.0 T 3.0 T 19.5 11.0 0.0 33.5 1967-1968 0.0 2.5 5.0 9.1 3.0 3.0 0.0 22.6 1966-1967 0.0 0.0 8.6 1.0 19.5 21.7 T 50.8 1965-1966 0.0 0.0 T 12.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 15.7 1964-1965 0.0 0.0 2.0 24.6 7.4 4.5 1.0 39.5 1963-1964 0.0 T 11.0 11.7 16.0 1.0 0.0 39.7

Record short term temperature rises in some spots as the cold pattern is finally relaxing.

Most storms since 2018-2019 have been cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. We have also had numerous hugger gradients where the low was south but the mixing line pushed into the I-78 to I-84 corridor due to lack of cold high pressure over New England and an amped Southeast Ridge. January 2026 was our first 10”+ benchmark snowstorm from EWR to ISP and nearby suburbs since January 2022. From 2010 to 2018 we had a record number of benchmark 10”+ snowstorm tracks. During the 2002 to 2009 period we also had more benchmark storm tracks. From 1993 there to 2001 we had a blend of storm tracks including the Miller A track east of the APPS which used to give Central and Eastern PA the record snows those years. That track has mostly been missing over the last 20 years. The 1960s to 1980s featured more of a blend of storm tracks. So there haven’t been any years since the mid 90s that the coastal areas from EWR to ISP didn’t reach 25” without at least one major 10”+KU benchmark snowstorm. Prior to the mid 90s we had a wider variety of the storm tracks so we didn’t have to exclusively rely on 10”+ major benchmark snowstorm tracks to get to 25” from EWR to ISP.

I am really happy we were able to sneak in the big benchmark system in late January. But we have reverted back to the dominant storm track pattern since 2018-2019. With the blizzard getting suppressed to our south, we have returned to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks.

This is due to inadequacy of relying on the standard teleconnections with patterns like this. It was a weaker version of January 1994 and 2004. Those patterns were colder and sustained for a month instead of 15-20 days like this one was. While it doesn’t have a formal name, the key driver of the cold was the 500mb block north of Alaska. That is a very cold teleconnection in the East. You can find other examples such as 12-26-17 to 1-8-18. This was the coldest 16 day period around NYC Metro since then. Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 16.8 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10 0 2 16.9 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09 0 3 17.1 2017-12-24 through 2018-01-08 0 4 17.2 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 5 17.5 2026-01-25 through 2026-02-09 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 20.8 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10 0 2 20.8 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09 0 3 20.9 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 19.7 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10 0 2 19.7 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09 0 3 20.1 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0

The warming during March has prevented several stations like EWR, NYC, and LGA from having another 10”+ snowstorm since 1993. March Maximum 3-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1843-05-01 to 2026-02-08 19.0 1888-03-12 through 1888-03-14 0 18.3 1956-03-17 through 1956-03-19 0 18.2 1956-03-18 through 1956-03-20 0 14.8 1958-03-20 through 1958-03-22 0 14.8 1958-03-19 through 1958-03-21 0 13.9 1960-03-03 through 1960-03-05 0 13.9 1960-03-02 through 1960-03-04 0 12.7 1993-03-13 through 1993-03-15 0 12.7 1993-03-12 through 1993-03-14 0 12.7 1956-03-19 through 1956-03-21 0 12.5 1960-03-01 through 1960-03-03 0 12.1 1941-03-08 through 1941-03-10 0 12.1 1941-03-07 through 1941-03-09 0 12.0 1941-03-06 through 1941-03-08 0 12.0 1917-03-02 through 1917-03-04 0 12.0 1852-03-17 through 1852-03-19 0 12.0 1852-03-16 through 1852-03-18 0 12.0 1852-03-15 through 1852-03-17 0 11.9 1993-03-11 through 1993-03-13 0 11.5 1896-03-15 through 1896-03-17 0 11.5 1896-03-14 through 1896-03-16 0 11.2 1956-03-16 through 1956-03-18 0 11.0 1867-03-17 through 1867-03-19 0 11.0 1867-03-16 through 1867-03-18 0 11.0 1867-03-15 through 1867-03-17 0 10.5 1861-03-19 through 1861-03-21 0 10.5 1851-03-07 through 1851-03-09 0 10.5 1851-03-06 through 1851-03-08 0 10.1 1917-03-03 through 1917-03-05 0 9.5 1958-03-18 through 1958-03-20 0

The forcing shifting east of the Dateline in late January allowing the STJ to become more dominant for a week put most of the major stations close to the coast near or over 25” which is a great outcome for this 2020s climate. The long range guidance sustains the present forcing west of the Dateline into mid-March. So it looks like more of a split flow or Northern Stream dominant storm track pattern which could allow for a smaller or maybe even moderate snowfall event before the end of the season. But probably not a STJ dominant pattern that can produce another widespread 10”+ benchmark NESIS event near the coast. Hoping the spots that are still under 25” can get just enough so they can make it to 25”+. CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 34.4 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 29.8 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 28.6 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 25.3 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 24.5

We lost the snowy pattern back in late January. December was very unusual in that it was the first time we had two 4-8” clippers over such a short stretch for the month. It was the perfect 500mb pattern for maxing out the Northern Stream snowfall potential. That pattern shifted in January which opened the door to our first widespread benchmark 10”+ snowstorm since 2022 as the forcing shifted east of the Dateline allowing the STJ to become active for a week. The only time our area had multiple 10”+ snowstorms under 7 days apart was in February 1994. So that 2nd event which brought record snows to the Carolinas statistically would have been tough to pull off since we need more time for NESIS snowstorm patterns to reload here. While we could have more accumulating snow before the season ends, this faster split flow regime probably won’t be able produce another widespread 10”+ benchmark event near the coast here.

It’s par for the course after the 1995-1996 winter for consecutive 10”+ snowfall months to be followed by one under 10”. Very difficult to go 3 in a row in the this area. Snowy patterns have been difficult to sustain for more than a month or two around here. These are all the winters at ISP with 10”+ Decembers. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY 10”+ months bolded Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2009-2010 0.0 25.3 6.4 21.7 0.4 0.0 53.8 2002-2003 1.0 16.0 2.6 26.3 3.7 5.0 54.6 2003-2004 0.0 15.5 19.1 1.1 5.7 0.0 41.4 2010-2011 T 14.9 34.4 3.9 2.1 T 55.3 1995-1996 3.0 13.3 20.2 19.0 12.0 9.6 77.1 2025-2026 T 12.5 14.9 1.2 M M 28.6 1969-1970 T 12.0 7.0 7.0 1.0 T 27.0 1975-1976 T 11.0 7.8 7.5 3.9 0.0 30.2 1963-1964 T 11.0 11.7 16.0 1.0 0.0 39.7 2000-2001 0.0 10.8 9.2 8.6 10.3 T 38.9 2008-2009 T 10.4 8.9 3.3 13.6 T 36.2 1988-1989 0.0 10.4 4.4 1.2 3.0 T 19.0

It’s interesting that the last top 10 coldest temperature for Boston in 2023 was during one of its warmest winters. Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Lowest Minimum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1933-1934 -18 0 2 1942-1943 -14 0 - 1917-1918 -14 0 3 1881-1882 -13 0 4 1956-1957 -12 0 - 1883-1884 -12 0 5 1913-1914 -11 0 - 1895-1896 -11 4 - 1875-1876 -11 0 6 2022-2023 -10 0 - 1885-1886 -10 0 - 1884-1885 -10 0 7 2015-2016 -9 0 8 1919-1920 -8 0 - 1902-1903 -8 0 - 1872-1873 -8 0 9 2003-2004 -7 0 - 1980-1981 -7 0 - 1906-1907 -7 0 - 1893-1894 -7 8 10 1923-1924 -6 0 - 1903-1904 -6 0 - 1894-1895 -6 8 - 1887-1888 -6 0 - 1877-1878 -6 0 Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Warmest Winters Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2001-2002 37.8 0 2 2019-2020 37.7 0 3 2015-2016 37.5 0 4 2011-2012 37.1 0 5 2022-2023 36.7 0 6 1932-1933 36.6 0 7 2023-2024 36.4 0 8 2016-2017 35.6 0 9 1990-1991 35.4 0 - 1931-1932 35.4 0 10 1936-1937 35.2 0 - 1912-1913 35.2 0

Wednesday looks our first chance at ending the under 40° day streak at some spots.

For Newark, NJ this was the coldest 16 day period for average temperatures since 2017-2018. This was the coldest 16 day period at Islip since the late 1970s but 5.3° warmer. At White Plains,NY this was the coldest 16 day period since 2017-2018. For Sussex NJ, it was also the coldest 16 day run since 2015. The coldest on record there was 1967-1968 and 1979. Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Since 1951 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 15.0 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-20 0 2 15.4 1979-02-04 through 1979-02-19 0 3 15.6 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-21 0 4 15.8 1961-01-19 through 1961-02-03 0 5 15.9 1979-02-03 through 1979-02-18 0 6 16.4 1982-01-08 through 1982-01-23 0 7 16.5 1961-01-20 through 1961-02-04 0 8 16.5 1982-01-10 through 1982-01-25 0 9 16.7 1982-01-09 through 1982-01-24 0 10 16.8 1961-01-18 through 1961-02-02 0 11 16.9 1981-01-03 through 1981-01-18 0 - 16.9 1979-02-07 through 1979-02-22 0 12 17.0 1982-01-07 through 1982-01-22 0 13 17.1 1979-02-02 through 1979-02-17 0 14 17.3 1980-12-31 through 1981-01-15 0 15 17.3 1981-01-02 through 1981-01-17 0 - 17.3 1961-01-21 through 1961-02-05 0 16 17.5 1982-01-11 through 1982-01-26 0 17 17.6 1980-12-30 through 1981-01-14 0 18 17.7 1981-01-01 through 1981-01-16 0 19 17.9 1979-02-08 through 1979-02-23 0 20 18.1 1979-02-01 through 1979-02-16 0 21 18.2 1981-01-04 through 1981-01-19 0 - 18.2 1977-01-16 through 1977-01-31 0 22 18.4 1977-01-08 through 1977-01-23 0 - 18.4 1961-01-22 through 1961-02-06 0 23 18.4 1982-01-12 through 1982-01-27 0 - 18.4 1961-01-17 through 1961-02-01 0 24 18.4 1982-01-06 through 1982-01-21 0 - 18.4 1977-01-09 through 1977-01-24 0 25 18.6 1977-01-17 through 1977-02-01 0 26 18.6 1980-12-29 through 1981-01-13 0 - 18.6 1977-01-11 through 1977-01-26 0 27 18.8 1977-01-07 through 1977-01-22 0 28 18.8 1977-01-15 through 1977-01-30 0 29 18.9 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-24 0 - 18.9 1977-01-10 through 1977-01-25 0 30 19.0 1977-01-12 through 1977-01-27 0 31 19.2 1979-01-31 through 1979-02-15 0 32 19.3 1977-01-14 through 1977-01-29 0 - 19.3 1977-01-06 through 1977-01-21 0 33 19.4 1967-12-29 through 1968-01-13 0 34 19.4 1982-01-05 through 1982-01-20 0 35 19.5 1961-01-16 through 1961-01-31 0 36 19.5 1961-01-23 through 1961-02-07 0 37 19.6 1977-01-05 through 1977-01-20 0 38 19.6 1968-01-01 through 1968-01-16 0 39 19.6 1982-01-13 through 1982-01-28 0 40 19.7 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10 0 41 19.7 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09 0 - 19.7 1985-01-08 through 1985-01-23 0 42 19.8 2015-02-13 through 2015-02-28 0 - 19.8 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-14 0 43 19.8 2004-01-14 through 2004-01-29 0 44 19.8 1977-01-13 through 1977-01-28 0 45 19.8 2004-01-10 through 2004-01-25 0 - 19.8 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-17 0 46 19.9 2005-01-17 through 2005-02-01 0 - 19.9 2005-01-16 through 2005-01-31 0 47 19.9 1985-01-09 through 1985-01-24 0 48 20.0 2005-01-15 through 2005-01-30 0 - 20.0 1980-12-28 through 1981-01-12 0 - 20.0 1970-01-08 through 1970-01-23 0 49 20.0 1977-01-18 through 1977-02-02 0 - 20.0 1977-01-04 through 1977-01-19 0 50 20.0 1981-01-05 through 1981-01-20 0 51 20.1 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 - 20.1 2017-12-24 through 2018-01-08 0 - 20.1 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-15 0 52 20.1 2015-02-12 through 2015-02-27 0 - 20.1 1967-12-28 through 1968-01-12 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 12.7 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-20 0 2 13.2 1979-02-04 through 1979-02-19 0 3 13.3 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-21 0 4 13.8 1979-02-03 through 1979-02-18 0 5 14.6 1979-02-07 through 1979-02-22 0 6 15.0 1979-02-02 through 1979-02-17 0 7 15.8 1979-02-08 through 1979-02-23 0 8 16.0 1967-12-29 through 1968-01-13 0 9 16.2 1979-02-01 through 1979-02-16 0 10 16.4 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-14 0 11 16.6 1968-01-01 through 1968-01-16 0 12 16.7 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-17 0 13 16.8 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-15 0 14 16.9 1967-12-28 through 1968-01-12 0 15 16.9 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-24 0 16 17.4 1979-01-31 through 1979-02-15 0 17 17.5 1967-12-27 through 1968-01-11 0 18 17.7 1968-01-03 through 1968-01-18 0 19 18.0 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 20 18.2 1981-01-03 through 1981-01-18 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 9.3 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-20 0 2 9.7 1979-02-04 through 1979-02-19 0 3 10.3 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-21 0 - 10.3 1979-02-03 through 1979-02-18 0 4 10.7 1961-01-19 through 1961-02-03 0 5 11.3 1961-01-20 through 1961-02-04 0 6 11.4 1979-02-02 through 1979-02-17 0 7 11.8 1961-01-18 through 1961-02-02 0 8 11.9 1979-02-07 through 1979-02-22 0 9 11.9 1961-01-21 through 1961-02-05 0 10 12.5 1979-02-01 through 1979-02-16 0 11 12.7 1982-01-08 through 1982-01-23 0 12 12.8 1982-01-10 through 1982-01-25 0 13 12.8 1982-01-09 through 1982-01-24 0 14 12.9 1961-01-22 through 1961-02-06 0 15 13.2 1979-02-08 through 1979-02-23 0 16 13.3 1982-01-07 through 1982-01-22 0 17 13.5 1961-01-17 through 1961-02-01 0 18 13.6 1982-01-11 through 1982-01-26 0 19 13.6 1979-01-31 through 1979-02-15 0 20 13.9 1961-01-23 through 1961-02-07 0 21 14.3 1982-01-12 through 1982-01-27 0 22 14.4 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-24 0 23 14.6 1982-01-06 through 1982-01-21 0 24 14.7 1961-01-24 through 1961-02-08 0 25 14.8 1961-01-16 through 1961-01-31 0 26 14.9 1979-01-30 through 1979-02-14 0 27 15.2 1982-01-13 through 1982-01-28 0 - 15.2 1977-01-16 through 1977-01-31 0 28 15.4 1977-01-08 through 1977-01-23 0 29 15.5 1977-01-09 through 1977-01-24 0 30 15.6 1977-01-15 through 1977-01-30 0 31 15.6 1977-01-17 through 1977-02-01 0 32 15.7 2015-02-13 through 2015-02-28 0 33 15.8 1977-01-11 through 1977-01-26 0 34 15.8 1961-01-15 through 1961-01-30 0 35 16.0 1977-01-10 through 1977-01-25 0 36 16.1 2015-02-14 through 2015-03-01 0 - 16.1 1977-01-07 through 1977-01-22 0 - 16.1 1961-01-25 through 1961-02-09 0 37 16.2 1977-01-12 through 1977-01-27 0 38 16.2 1977-01-14 through 1977-01-29 0 39 16.3 2005-01-17 through 2005-02-01 0 40 16.3 2015-02-12 through 2015-02-27 0 41 16.3 2005-01-16 through 2005-01-31 0 - 16.3 2005-01-15 through 2005-01-30 0 42 16.4 1982-01-14 through 1982-01-29 0 - 16.4 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-17 0 - 16.4 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-14 0 43 16.4 1979-02-10 through 1979-02-25 0 44 16.4 1977-01-06 through 1977-01-21 0 45 16.5 1977-01-05 through 1977-01-20 0 46 16.6 2015-02-11 through 2015-02-26 0 47 16.7 1977-01-04 through 1977-01-19 0 48 16.8 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10 0 - 16.8 2004-01-10 through 2004-01-25 0 - 16.8 1994-01-06 through 1994-01-21 0 49 16.8 2005-01-18 through 2005-02-02 0 50 16.8 1977-01-13 through 1977-01-28 0 51 16.9 2015-02-15 through 2015-03-02 0 - 16.9 2004-01-14 through 2004-01-29 0 - 16.9 1982-01-15 through 1982-01-30 0 - 16.9 1977-01-18 through 1977-02-02 0 52 16.9 2004-01-09 through 2004-01-24 0 - 16.9 1979-01-29 through 1979-02-13 0 53 16.9 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09 0 54 17.0 1968-01-01 through 1968-01-16 0 - 17.0 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-15 0 55 17.0 1967-12-29 through 1968-01-13 0 56 17.0 1994-01-07 through 1994-01-22 0 - 17.0 1968-01-03 through 1968-01-18 0 57 17.1 1977-01-03 through 1977-01-18 0 58 17.1 2017-12-24 through 2018-01-08 0 59 17.1 1994-01-08 through 1994-01-23 0 60 17.2 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 61 17.2 2015-02-10 through 2015-02-25 0 - 17.2 2005-01-14 through 2005-01-29 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 12.5 2015-02-13 through 2015-02-28 0 2 12.6 2005-01-18 through 2005-02-02 0 3 12.6 2005-01-17 through 2005-02-01 0 4 12.8 2015-02-14 through 2015-03-01 0 5 12.9 2005-01-16 through 2005-01-31 0 6 13.1 2015-02-12 through 2015-02-27 0 7 13.1 2005-01-15 through 2005-01-30 0 8 13.5 2005-01-19 through 2005-02-03 0 9 13.6 2015-02-11 through 2015-02-26 0 10 14.1 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for SUSSEX 1 NW, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 6.2 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-14 0 2 6.5 1961-01-20 through 1961-02-04 0 3 6.7 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-21 0 4 6.8 1961-01-21 through 1961-02-05 0 5 6.9 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-17 0 - 6.9 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-15 0 6 7.1 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-20 0

The higher ratios helped us out this winter with our snows since we have been continuing with this drier pattern since the fall of 2024.

While the temperatures will begin to moderate in the East, the Northeast looks like it will experience a slower warm up relative to other areas. It also appears the drier pattern will continue over the next week. So mostly weaker sheared out systems in the near term with the very fast flow.

NYC had no trouble dropping to 3° since the winds stayed up throughout this Arctic outbreak. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=knyc

That was a much colder 15 day period than we just had. Minimum 15-Day Mean Avg Temperature for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 12.0 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-20 0 2 12.2 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-19 0 3 12.9 1979-02-07 through 1979-02-21 0 4 12.9 1979-02-04 through 1979-02-18 0 5 14.4 1979-02-03 through 1979-02-17 0 6 14.4 1979-02-08 through 1979-02-22 0 7 15.1 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-13 0 8 15.2 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-23 0 9 15.7 1979-02-02 through 1979-02-16 0 10 15.8 1967-12-29 through 1968-01-12 0 11 16.0 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-14 0 12 16.4 1979-02-01 through 1979-02-15 0 13 16.4 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-16 0 - 16.4 1968-01-01 through 1968-01-15 0 14 17.0 1968-01-03 through 1968-01-17 0 15 17.1 1968-01-04 through 1968-01-18 0 16 17.1 1967-12-28 through 1968-01-11 0 17 17.2 1979-02-10 through 1979-02-24 0 18 17.6 1979-01-31 through 1979-02-14 0 19 17.7 1980-12-31 through 1981-01-14 0 20 17.8 1968-01-05 through 1968-01-19 0 21 17.9 1981-01-03 through 1981-01-17 0 22 18.0 1981-01-01 through 1981-01-15 0 23 18.0 1977-01-11 through 1977-01-25 0 24 18.1 1967-12-27 through 1968-01-10 0 25 18.1 1981-01-02 through 1981-01-16 0 26 18.2 2005-01-17 through 2005-01-31 0 27 18.2 2005-01-18 through 2005-02-01 0 - 18.2 1977-01-17 through 1977-01-31 0 28 18.3 1981-01-04 through 1981-01-18 0 29 18.3 1977-01-10 through 1977-01-24 0 30 18.4 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-09 0 - 18.4 1977-01-12 through 1977-01-26 0 31 18.4 1977-01-16 through 1977-01-30 0 - 18.4 1977-01-09 through 1977-01-23 0 32 18.5 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-07 0

December and January finished around the 7th warmest for the CONUS. So the warmth out West has been much more impressive than the cold in the East. The shorter duration last 2 to 3 weeks had top 5 and top 10 cold for climate districts in the East for January 20th to February 7th. But since the start of the winter the climate districts and the larger regions haven’t been nearly as cold. With how warm our winters have become since 2015-2016, it makes this winter feel much colder since people quickly normalize their recent 3-7 year climate. Right before the big global and national temperature jump in 2015-2016, the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest regions were able to sustain a top 10 cold pattern for the entire winter of 2013-2014. But that cold pool was less expansive than the late 1970s so nationally we couldn’t rank in the top 10 or even top 20. It finished 33rd coldest for the CONUS. We can see how the record warmth wasn’t present in the West that winter. Prior to the multiple temperature increases since the early 1980s, the entire CONUS had its last top 10 coldest winters from coast to coast with no extreme warmth anywhere in the CONUS in the late 1970s. With 1978-1979 ranking as the coldest winter since 1895 for the CONUS. https://bsky.app/profile/climatologist49.bsky.social/post/3me3dxzzakc23 social‬ Follow The Dec-Jan period was the 7th warmest for the Contiguous U.S. since 1940. 21.1% had the warmest Dec-Jan during that period. 0.0% had the coldest Dec-Jan; 0.0% had the 2nd coldest, 0.0% had the 3rd coldest, .... all the way thru the 13th coldest. 9:32 PM · Feb 4, 2026

Some spots could see an ice shove with the strong winds next few days.

This is our most impressive coverage of ice on the local waterways for the 2020s.

But I like to rank the actual temperatures and not the instances. This is why there are multiple ways of sorting. But if you like to rank the instances then you are free to. My focus is more in the weather element than how many ties there have been. Both ways are technically correct.

Getting a top 10 coldest for a week to a month across a region or adjacent regions is impressive cold but is considered a shorter duration and smaller geographic footprint. My discussions have been focused on seasonal top 10 cold which spans the 3 winter months of December to February. This hasn’t happened on a national level since the 1970s. These shorter duration Arctic outbreaks ranking in the top 10 and over a smaller geographic region than the past have been a common feature of our climate in recent years. Think back to the regional cold records during February 2021. In the old days these regional monthly top 10s would extend to seasonal which hasn’t happened in recent years. Plus the magnitude of the warmth across the Plains in December 2021 was greater than the cold in February 2021. None of the cold records so far in the East rank as cold as the warm records in the West have for geographic extent, magnitude, or duration. Since the Northern Hemisphere cold pool is so much smaller than it used to be.This winter has been among the warmest on record for the Northern Hemisphere.