bluewave

You are talking local patterns and nuances more than the actual strength of the event. The last event in 2023-2024 jumped the planet to a new higher global temperature baseline with a relatively weaker RONI. The Nino ridge was among the strongest on record with the warmest winter in record for the CONUS and much of North America. It’s debatable whether the weaker Aleutian low was a function of RONI or just a symptom of weaker upper lows in general over the years with both La Ninas and El Niños. Notice this past winter with a weak La Niña configuration closest to 1995-1996 the ridge overpowered the pattern with smaller 500 mb lows.

NOAA and other agencies maintain both the ONI and RONI. The paper it’s based on developed it more for marginal events like weak La Ninas and El Niños where the WPAC warm pool was extending more influence than the Nina regions. This was not specifically designed for higher end El Niños or La Ninas.

RONI is a relative metric to other areas of SST warmth. It’s not a realistic gauge of how strong the actual El Niño event is. The planet doesn’t care about relative metrics as the global temperatures are setting records every day now with how extreme this event is becoming.

Urban spots away from the seabreeze made it to 10 days reaching 95°+ again. This has become a common theme in recent years. In the old days we would get cooler summers in between. Data for January 1, 2026 through August 28, 2026 #95°+ days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 10 NJ HARRISON COOP 10 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 10 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 10 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Jan through Dec Most 95° + Days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2002 22 8 2 2021 17 0 - 2005 17 9 3 2022 16 0 - 2012 16 21 - 2010 16 30 4 2020 15 0 - 1999 15 4 5 2018 14 0 6 2024 13 0 - 2016 13 0 7 2025 12 0 8 2013 11 0 9 2026 10 126 10 2019 9 0 - 2006 9 4

New OLR record for so early in an El Niño as this becomes the strongest east based event for the date. In recent days, the warming has intensified off the coast of #Ecuador and northern #Perú. It is there that @enfenperu measures and assesses #ElNiñoCostero. From an atmospheric and oceanic perspective, OLR values are at historic lows for this time of year in the central and eastern Pacific. This is evidence of coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere. The depth of the warm waters to the west of #Galapagos (the last point where we can compare all events), the volume of warm water clearly exceeds that of 1997, while those of 2015 and 2023 were much smaller. This sheds light on the robustness of the event in the eastern Pacific.

The wetter climate leading to all these summer flash flood warmings has made it more challenging to sustain extended 90° day counts like in 1988 without clouds or rain interrupting. The most severe droughts in recent times have been focused out West. In the old days droughts were often from the Plains into the East. Plus stronger sea breezes due to summer circulation changes also interrupt the 90° day runs. But overall 90° day counts have been increasing just inland from the sea breeze fronts.

I think what you have been noticing is that the high temperatures during coolest summers each decade back to the 1940s are rising more rapidly than the warmest ones. Notice how we haven’t had any cooler summers after 2010 like we regularly got through 2009. Most of the record heat since 2010 during the summers has occurred in June and July. Maybe the late August into early September record heat of the 1940s into 1950s was a function of the late summer droughts from the Plains into the East.

While the minimum departures were a little warmer relative to the maxes, the average highs were still warmer than what is normal even using the warmest 1991-2020 climate normals period. I agree that it felt cooler relative to the heat that we had earlier in the summer. This has largely followed the 2020s summer pattern of major heat early on followed by heavy rains.

August was warmer than normal for most of the area using the warmest 1991-2020 climate normals.

Yeah, rapid warming of the SSTs near Japan as the main ridge axis migrated west from the July position north of Hawaii.

At least the start of September will show some similarity to 2023 and 2015. But the forecast is for a stronger Southeast ridge this time. Matches the summer theme of stronger mid-latitude 500 mb ridging than past developing super El Ninos.

The numbers show that we didn’t get the cooler developing super El Niño summer that was common in the past. We were significantly warmer than 2023. It was also warmer than 2015 which also didn’t have the extreme 100°+ heat that we had from May into mid-July. Most of the years you cited were the summers which followed the El Niño events and not before. The entire CONUS was too warm to allow a cooler summer here like 1972, 1982, and 1997.

This was the warmest developing super El Niño summer across the area. In the past these summers weren’t as warm like 2023. Several older ones were on the cooler side. Multiple locations in the top 10 for warmest summer through August 25th. Plus a number of stations got close to their all-time highs in early July which didn’t happen during any of the other developing super El Niño summers. Parts of NJ also reached 100° in May which set a new monthly maximum temperature in spots. Time Series Summary for NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE, NJ Warmest Summers through August 25th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-08-25 76.6 0 2 2024-08-25 76.1 0 3 2022-08-25 75.9 0 - 2005-08-25 75.9 0 4 2020-08-25 75.8 0 5 1999-08-25 75.6 0 6 2026-08-25 75.5 1 7 2016-08-25 75.3 0 8 2011-08-25 75.1 0 9 2021-08-25 75.0 0 10 2019-08-25 74.9 0 - 2012-08-25 74.9 0 - 2002-08-25 74.9 0 11 2025-08-25 74.8 0 - 2006-08-25 74.8 0 12 2008-08-25 74.5 1 13 2013-08-25 74.4 0 14 2018-08-25 74.3 0 15 2015-08-25 74.2 0 16 1988-08-25 74.1 0 17 1995-08-25 73.9 0 - 1994-08-25 73.9 0 18 1983-08-25 73.8 0 19 2017-08-25 73.6 0 - 1987-08-25 73.6 0 20 1973-08-25 73.5 0 21 1980-08-25 73.3 0 22 2023-08-25 73.2 0 - 1991-08-25 73.2 1 23 1981-08-25 73.0 0 - 1968-08-25 73.0 0 24 2003-08-25 72.9 0 - 1984-08-25 72.9 1 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Warmest Summers Through August 25th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-08-25 74.9 0 2 2010-08-25 74.8 0 3 2020-08-25 74.7 0 4 1999-08-25 74.6 0 5 2022-08-25 74.4 0 6 2024-08-25 74.3 0 7 2019-08-25 74.2 0 - 2016-08-25 74.2 0 8 2011-08-25 74.1 0 9 2026-08-25 73.6 0 10 2021-08-25 73.5 0 11 2013-08-25 73.4 0 - 2012-08-25 73.4 0 - 2005-08-25 73.4 0 12 2006-08-25 73.3 0 13 2018-08-25 73.2 0 - 2015-08-25 73.2 0 - 2008-08-25 73.2 0 - 1994-08-25 73.2 0 14 2002-08-25 73.1 0 - 1995-08-25 73.1 0 - 1991-08-25 73.1 0 - 1966-08-25 73.1 0 15 1980-08-25 72.9 0 16 1988-08-25 72.8 0 17 2023-08-25 72.6 0 - 1969-08-25 72.6 0 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 107.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 2 106.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 106.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 3 104.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 4 103.0 2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04 - 103.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 103.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 103.0 2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18 5 102.0 2025-07-30 through 2025-07-30 - 102.0 2022-07-25 through 2022-07-25 - 102.0 2013-07-19 through 2013-07-19 - 102.0 2005-08-13 through 2005-08-13 - 102.0 1999-07-18 through 1999-07-18 - 102.0 1999-07-06 through 1999-07-06 - 102.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 2 103.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 3 102.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 102.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 102.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 102.0 2011-07-23 through 2011-07-23 - 102.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 - 102.0 1963-07-01 through 1963-07-01 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of May Maximum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026 100 0 2 2022 96 0 - 2016 96 0 - 2013 96 0 - 1996 96 4 6 2017 95 0 - 2010 95 2 - 2007 95 0 - 2001 95 0

Great graphic from the NWS showing how Bridgeport was significantly ahead of the other major sites for summer rainfall this year.

North Atlantic close to the all-time warmest set back in 2023.

Looks like the last week of August will feature near average temperatures.

Bridgeport, CT went from the driest summer on record last year to the wettest summer this year. Driest Summer Time Series Summary for Bridgeport Area, CT (ThreadEx) - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 3.24 0 2 1995 4.13 0 3 1966 4.21 0 4 1964 4.25 0 5 1993 4.58 0 6 1999 6.09 0 7 1957 6.16 0 8 1948 6.22 30 9 1974 6.69 0 10 1970 6.70 0 Wettest Summer Time Series Summary for Bridgeport Area, CT (ThreadEx) - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026 21.21 8 2 1972 20.23 0 3 1952 18.67 0 4 2006 18.52 0 5 1971 18.21 0 6 2011 18.11 0 7 1982 17.98 0 8 1992 17.27 0 9 2000 16.34 0 10 1989 15.61 0

This is the wettest month for NYC since August 2024. That was the last month before the dry pattern started in September 2024. So finally beginning to get a wetter pattern last few months. Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026 2.70 2.60 3.60 2.48 3.05 3.39 4.89 7.08 M M M M 29.79 2025 0.61 2.60 5.52 3.25 6.58 2.46 4.03 2.21 2.76 4.08 2.09 3.38 39.57 2024 5.28 2.05 9.06 3.47 4.11 1.71 4.20 7.02 1.58 0.01 3.35 4.53 46.37

Finally starting to see elements of the 2023, 2015, and 1997 late August into September patterns show up in the analog composite.

Significantly warmer summer across the CONUS than 2023, 2015, and 1997.

Yeah, same for the two tornadoes yesterday on the South Shore that began as waterspouts. Once the ocean gets warm enough later in the season, the South Shore becomes the focus. Earlier in the season the severe storms and flooding tend to focus closer to the North Shore. Very impressive Atlantic SST rise providing the fuel once the pattern becomes favorable for storms. 445 NOUS41 KOKX 210130 PNSOKX Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 930 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026 ...Waterspouts in southern Queens and southern Nassau County... The National Weather Service New York, NY office along with emergency management partners are reviewing damage, ground truth, and radar data from two waterspouts that may have impacted portions of the eastern Rockaways and Atlantic Beach in southern Queens and Nassau counties. Both of these waterspouts appear to have come ashore between 6:30 and 7:00 PM on August 20, 2026. Based on radar data and videos/photos received, so far, the first waterspout appears to have been short-lived, coming onshore in the eastern Rockaways. No damage reports have come in, as of yet. Based on radar and videos/photos received, so far, the second waterspout appears to have come onshore in Atlantic Beach. We have received preliminary reports of damage from this and radar evidence shows it may have survived for longer after coming onshore. We will continue to gather more information and investigate reports of damage in more detail. We will come out with an official statement on Friday, with more details.

Patchogue was the heaviest spot far on Long Island with 5.05 inches. Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: NY-SF-85 Station Name: Patchogue 0.9 SE Data Explorer Observation Date 8/21/2026 6:30 AM Submitted 8/21/2026 6:43 AM Gauge Catch 5.05 in. Notes --

Bridgeport, CT close to the wettest summer on record with 10 days to go after the driest summer on record last year. Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Jun through Aug Wettest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1972 20.23 0 2 2026 18.83 11 3 1952 18.67 0 4 2006 18.52 0 5 1971 18.21 0 6 2011 18.11 0 7 1982 17.98 0 8 1992 17.27 0 9 2000 16.34 0 10 1989 15.61 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Jun through Aug Driest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 3.24 0 2 1995 4.13 0 3 1966 4.21 0 4 1964 4.25 0 5 1993 4.58 0 6 1999 6.09 0 7 1957 6.16 0 8 1948 6.22 30 9 1974 6.69 0 10 1970 6.70 0