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bluewave

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Everything posted by bluewave

  1. bluewave
    Yeah, hard to believe we got such an amazing 24 day stretch of winter following a December than was warmer than most Novembers. Maximum 24-Day Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 40.8 1961-02-07 0 - 40.8 1961-02-06 0 - 40.8 1961-02-05 0 - 40.8 1961-02-04 0 2 39.8 1961-02-08 0 3 38.5 2016-02-15 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1963 -2 0 2 1961 -1 0 3 1967 0 0 4 2016 1 0 5 1979 2 0
  2. bluewave
    It’s ironic that one of our greatest 24 day winter stretches occurred after the +13.3 December.
  3. bluewave
    It was actually one of our most impressive 3 to 4 week winter periods of all-time with a 30” snowfall in spots and then another 10”+ in early February and then the first below 0° in NYC since 1994.
  4. bluewave
    Much weaker Pacific Jet in 90-91 so we were still able to reach average snowfall even if it was a mild winter by the averages in those days. The pattern really flipped warmer in Janaury 1990 with the amped up MJO. December 1989 into January 1990 was one of the strongest MJO driven patterns of that era.
  5. bluewave
    1990-1991 wasn’t too bad as it was of those more frequent near average winters for snowfall close to 25” following the previous 2 lower seasons.
  6. bluewave
    We had multiple 3-6” events around our big 1980s Arctic Outbreaks. Even if NYC didn’t make it to exactly 6”, several spots around the area from NNJ out to Suffolk did. So the cold and dry during the 1980s was a bit of a misnomer. While it was true that the big 12”+ KU events were a rarity back then , we had multiple seasons with close to 25” average in the 70s and 80s without one. Since it was cold enough back then to get to average with a bunch of small to moderate events. With the warmer winters since the 1990s, a KU has been become a prerequisite for average snowfall. These days we just don’t have enough sustained cold to get to average with just small to moderate events.
  7. bluewave
    We are coming up on the 40th anniversary of one of the greatest Arctic outbreaks of the late 20th Century. It was one the most impressive displays from the Long Beach Boardwalk of Arctic Seasmoke plus multiple steamnadoes over the ocean. I was out on the boardwalk with -2° temperatures and 40 to 50 mph gusts. One of the few times I got to experience a below 0° in morning and afternoon temperatures in the single digits. We had a 6” snowstorm a few days earlier with highs below freezing ratio fluff. Then another 6” with a few events a week later. So our 80s Arctic outbreaks usually had at least some snow and not cold and dry. https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/1985-1-21
  8. bluewave
    Back in October I was pointing out the potential PNA mismatch signal for December which worked out. But I also mentioned that other factors weren’t lining up like they did as recently as 2020 and 2017. As it turns out the Northern Stream of the Pacific was among the strongest we have ever seen with such a positive +PNA. So this lead to the warmer and less snowy outcome than most of the past +PNA La Niña Decembers. La Niña Decembers with strong +PNA patterns 2024…PNA…+1.70….NYC….avg temp…38.2°….snowfall…2.8” 2020…+1.58….39.2°….10.5” 2017….+0.89…35.0°…..7.7” 2005…+1.38….35.3…..9.7” 2000….+1.23…31.1°…..13.4” 1995…..+0.92…32.4°….11.5” 1985…..+1.39….34.2°….0.9” 1963……+1.77….31.2°….11.3”
  9. bluewave
    Big windchill factor day with highs below freezing and wind gusts over 40 mph.
  10. bluewave
    This is really cool.
  11. bluewave
    Yeah, it will be interesting to see how low we can get the winter cold departure by January 25th. The EPS and GEFS weeklies want to bring in a milder pattern by the end of January into February. So the winter negative temperature departures around our area may get smaller as February progresses. Having a cold enough departure by then may raise the possibility of our first colder winter here in 10 years. Even if it’s strictly a function of the warmer 91-20 climo and could be warmer than normal against the old 81-10 normals. But you never know for sure since we have seen several late winter La Niña periods overperform expectations and boost the winters above average based on how mild the finish was. Getting 9 warmer winters in a row is so statistically rare that you would think that one of these years we would get a break even if only by a small margin.
  12. bluewave
    It would have been epic if that took a classic BM track instead. Had heavy snow during the day. Then the warm up and rain and big tidal surge which floated away the whole snowpack which was really compacted. The mini icebergs settled to the ground after floating around the streets and froze into cement blocks with the rapidly falling temps and flash freeze next morning.
  13. bluewave
    Maybe the best -EPO of the winter so far if we can get some coupling with the strat.
  14. bluewave
    I just try to be grateful these days for any amount of snow we get here.
  15. bluewave
    Yeah, the CMC would be a happy compromise between the GFS and Euro.
  16. bluewave
    Yeah, that OP run is a big outlier in today’s 12z model suite.
  17. bluewave
    .5 of an inch OTG here just east of HVN briefly down to .5 mile vis.
  18. bluewave
    We really need at least a transient SER in order to not suppress the overrunning zone too far south with colder air in Canada for the first time this winter. Maybe we get a compromise between the GEFS and EPS. A more well defined lead shortwave which cuts and drags in cold air behind. Then hopefully a serviceable baroclinic zone nearby for overrunning potential.
  19. bluewave
    Subtle differences like how much -AO blocking lingers and whether we can hold some Baja ridging will probably determine the mean trough axis location at that time.
  20. bluewave
    Yeah, the GFS is most aggressive with the closing off of the UL so it slows the NS enough for more of a phase. The CMC has a NS open wave so it doesn’t completely capture the low offshore. But most on here would gladly take the CMC run. It seems like when we did get big phases in the past we had better wave spacing that what the models are showing for this.
  21. bluewave
    The key seems to be how fast the Northern Stream UL closes off. The GFS is the most aggressive so it allows a quicker phase. The CMC still has an open wave near the Upper Plains at the same time and isn’t quite as phased. It may come down to a tiny sampling issue as to which model is correct. Probably the closest to something decent we have seen in quite some time. Anything to slow that NS down and close it off quicker in this pattern would be greatly appreciated.
  22. bluewave
    But the -AO blocking threshold is much higher near or over -5 with a solid STJ than with the weaker -3.5 range we see today.
  23. bluewave
    Perhaps a better overrunning scenario across the Northern Tier as we will finally see colder air nearby in Canada instead of all the warmth we have been getting. The other nuances to the pattern will be how much AO blocking remains. Plus can we maintain some hint of ridging near the Baja instead of a trough which has been so frequent in recent years with -PNAs?
  24. bluewave
    Yeah, Canada is finally expected to begin cooling off from all the recent record warmth at least in the western and central regions.
  25. bluewave
    We just tend to do better here when the NS backs off a bit. Most would be happy with a stronger STJ like we got in January 2016. Things just tend to fall into place easier when we have blocking and a strong STJ. Even La a Nina’s like 20-21 did fine with the NS easing up enough.
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