bluewave

I actually got used to being right under the flight path for planes landing at JFK when I was back in Long Beach. But it was hard to ignore the Concorde which flew over my house every morning shortly after 9am coming into JFK. But kids think that kind of stuff if pretty cool anyway. I live near a much smaller airport now and the flight path doesn’t go directly over my house. But it’s really cool walking around the airport and seeing all the takeoffs and landings. There is a dirt lot where the locals park to watch all the flights landing and taking off. I still enjoy the low flyovers when walking on the sidewalk which crosses directly under the planes just off the end of the runway. I have noticed that the Boeing 737 is a much louder jet than the Airbus A 220. The airbus has more of a higher pitched whine and the Boeing is more of a deep roar. Had friends in the aviation business that would get to ride the jump seats on flights.

You are a very funny guy and appreciate the levity. But it’s been difficult to sustain any wall to wall DJF -EPO -WPO patterns since 2018-2019. It was much easier to lock in the -EPOs and -WPOs from December to March in 2013 to 2015 when the WPAC was much colder and the jet stream weaker. This allowed the NEPAC blocking to extend through the season since the weaker jet wasn’t constantly lowering heights with repeated shortwaves eroding the ridge from the west. As long as we have the enormous WPAC warm pool above and below the surface, the gradient between Siberia and the WPAC will drive these faster jet streams and frequent extensions. So what we are beginning to see now with the big EPO reversal this month is just a microcosm of the larger pattern since 2018-2019. The EPO reversal last year from late November into December was much more impressive. It’s actually been easier to sustain the NEPAC blocking during the summers since 2018 than during the winters. My guess is that this is due to the gradient between Siberia and the WPAC being much weaker during the summer. November 2024 into December 2024 -EPO couldn’t lock in and the daily +EPO max in late December was more impressive than the -EPO min in late November. Major Jet max and extension sent multiple shortwaves into the EPO domain lowering heights. 2024 11 20 -168.33 2024 11 21 -243.29 2024 11 22 -258.96 2024 11 23 -229.99 2024 11 24 -222.98 2024 11 25 -212.57 2024 11 26 -174.73 2024 11 27 -153.02 2024 11 28 -130.16 2024 11 29 -105.10 2024 11 30 -81.63 2024 12 01 -43.78 2024 12 02 -14.50 2024 12 03 -35.60 2024 12 04 -34.12 2024 12 05 -14.08 2024 12 06 28.23 2024 12 07 49.16 2024 12 08 -27.22 2024 12 09 -137.55 2024 12 10 -149.44 2024 12 11 -49.79 2024 12 12 35.08 2024 12 13 64.11 2024 12 14 70.96 2024 12 15 -21.55 2024 12 16 -72.62 2024 12 17 -59.81 2024 12 18 -48.59 2024 12 19 -98.46 2024 12 20 -88.76 2024 12 21 -9.80 2024 12 22 99.09 2024 12 23 112.77 2024 12 24 186.45 2024 12 25 280.91 2024 12 26 310.29 2024 12 27 225.40 2024 12 28 135.47 2024 12 29 75.67 2024 12 30 11.94

I think the record cold in Siberia creating the tight gradient between the record SSTs south of the Aleutians is helping this very strong shift to +EPO. This is following a similar pattern of recent years. Currently the Aleutians are experienceing a 4 sigma jet max helping to dig the +EPO trough and pump the warm ridge over North America. So as we have seen in recent years it tough to maintain a -EPO indefinitely. This EPO reversal was among the strongest we have seen from September into October. 4 sigma jet max near Aleutians Strong EPO reversal https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt 025 09 01 -195.59 2025 09 02 -217.86 2025 09 03 -189.23 2025 09 04 -134.91 2025 09 05 -108.24 2025 09 06 -90.21 2025 09 07 -71.66 2025 09 08 -37.71 2025 09 09 3.25 2025 09 10 39.61 2025 09 11 71.15 2025 09 12 90.96 2025 09 13 97.24 2025 09 14 92.25 2025 09 15 53.53 2025 09 16 -6.59 2025 09 17 -20.75 2025 09 18 -29.60 2025 09 19 33.92 2025 09 20 133.17 2025 09 21 158.66

This looks like our best rainfall potential in a while. Good signal from the CAMs for a widespread 1.5”+ with pockets of 3”+ possible. Just had brief heavy downpour here.

Yeah, looks like all the real cold is limited to Siberia.

Very challenging seasonal forecast that winter for anyone that was making an attempt in the early days of forecasting. Pretty much unprecedented up until time for parts of the CONUS to have a -15 December followed by a +15 January in other spots. Still the coldest December at 25.9° that I have ever experienced which was colder than all of our Januaries since 2004.

Very rare occurrence this August and September. Several stations are on track for a colder August monthly minimum temperature than in September. First time at Allentown since 1982. Looks like a warmer pattern to close out the month. Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for Trenton Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 49 50 49 2024 52 45 45 2023 57 50 50 2022 58 41 41 2021 58 49 49 2020 58 40 40 Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 48 49 48 2024 51 44 44 2023 54 49 49 2022 57 44 44 2021 59 49 49 2020 58 40 40 Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 44 46 44 2024 48 40 40 2023 52 45 45 2022 53 37 37 2021 53 45 45 2020 54 34 34 Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for Allentown Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1986 41 38 38 1934 41 43 41 1927 42 40 40 1982 43 47 43 1976 43 38 38 1944 43 38 38 1940 43 34 34 2025 45 47 45

I mostly remember how cold it was waiting for the school bus every morning during those late 70s winters.

Still the record for number of days with lows at or below 0° at Islip. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Dec through Feb Days with low temperature at or below 0° Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1978-1979 6 0 2 1964-1965 4 0 3 1967-1968 3 0 - 1966-1967 3 0 4 1987-1988 2 0 - 1983-1984 2 0 - 1981-1982 2 0 - 1980-1981 2 0 5 2015-2016 1 0 - 2013-2014 1 0 - 1984-1985 1 0 - 1976-1977 1 0 - 1975-1976 1 0 - 1973-1974 1 0 - 1969-1970 1 0 - 1963-1964 1 2 Data for December 1, 1978 through February 28, 1979 Days with low temperature at of below 0° Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 16 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 11 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 11 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 11 NY CARMEL COOP 10 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 9 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 9 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 8 NJ CRANFORD COOP 8 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 8 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 8 NY SUFFERN COOP 8 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 8 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 8 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 7 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 7 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 7 CT DANBURY COOP 7 NY SCARSDALE COOP 7 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 7 CT GROTON COOP 7 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 6 NY WEST POINT COOP 6 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 6 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 6 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 5 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 5 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 5 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 5 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 5 Data for December 1, 1978 through February 28, 1979 Days with low temperature at or below 0° Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 16 PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 14 NJ LONG VALLEY COOP 13 NJ NEWTON COOP 13 NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 13 PA COATESVILLE 1 SW COOP 10 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 10 PA READING 4 NNW COOP 10 NJ HIGH POINT PARK COOP 10 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 9 NJ SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 9 NJ MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 9 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 9 NJ BELVIDERE COOP 9

Areas closer to Southern NJ did. Data for February 18, 1979 through February 19, 1979 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. TUCKERTON 2 NE COOP 21.0 ESTELL MANOR COOP 19.4 CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 18.2 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 18.0 RAHWAY COOP 18.0 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 17.1 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 17.1 WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E COOP 17.0 PLAINFIELD COOP 17.0 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 16.6 Newark Area ThreadEx 16.6 AUDUBON COOP 14.0 BELVIDERE COOP 14.0 Belvidere Area ThreadEx 14.0 MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 12.5 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 12.0 PEMBERTON COOP 12.0 MOORESTOWN 4 E COOP 12.0 LAMBERTVILLE COOP 12.0 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 11.6 CRANFORD COOP 11.0 CANOE BROOK COOP 11.0 MIDLAND PARK COOP 11.0 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 10.5 SANDY HOOK COOP 10.0

Still the coldest 14 day period at Islip. Minimum 14-Day Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1963-09-05 to 2025-09-21 1 11.4 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-19 0 2 11.5 1979-02-07 through 1979-02-20 0 3 11.9 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-18 0 4 12.5 1979-02-08 through 1979-02-21 0 5 13.4 1979-02-04 through 1979-02-17 0 6 13.8 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-22 0 7 14.6 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-13 0 8 14.8 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-12 0 9 15.0 1979-02-03 through 1979-02-16 0 10 15.4 1979-02-10 through 1979-02-23 0 11 15.5 1968-01-01 through 1968-01-14 0 12 15.9 1979-02-02 through 1979-02-15 0 13 16.0 1967-12-29 through 1968-01-11 0 14 16.3 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-15 0 15 16.3 1968-01-04 through 1968-01-17 0 16 16.5 1979-02-01 through 1979-02-14 0 - 16.5 1968-01-05 through 1968-01-18 0 17 16.8 1968-01-03 through 1968-01-16 0 18 17.2 1977-01-11 through 1977-01-24 0 19 17.4 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-08 0 20 17.4 1981-01-01 through 1981-01-14 0 21 17.5 1981-01-03 through 1981-01-16 0 - 17.5 1981-01-02 through 1981-01-15 0 22 17.7 1980-12-31 through 1981-01-13 0 - 17.7 1967-12-28 through 1968-01-10 0 1979-02-06 25 13 19.0 -12.9 46 0 0.00 0.0 0 1979-02-07 22 13 17.5 -14.5 47 0 0.65 6.5 0 1979-02-08 30 17 23.5 -8.6 41 0 0.03 0.3 7 1979-02-09 19 8 13.5 -18.7 51 0 0.00 0.0 6 1979-02-10 15 -1 7.0 -25.4 58 0 0.00 0.0 5 1979-02-11 11 -2 4.5 -28.0 60 0 0.00 0.0 4 1979-02-12 15 -6 4.5 -28.2 60 0 0.09 0.9 2 1979-02-13 12 5 8.5 -24.3 56 0 T T 3 1979-02-14 13 -1 6.0 -27.0 59 0 0.00 0.0 3 1979-02-15 20 9 14.5 -18.6 50 0 T T 2 1979-02-16 18 8 13.0 -20.3 52 0 0.02 0.2 1 1979-02-17 10 0 5.0 -28.5 60 0 0.00 0.0 1 1979-02-18 14 -2 6.0 -27.7 59 0 0.00 0.0 1 1979-02-19 24 10 17.0 -16.9 48 0 0.88 8.8 2

Especially in places like the Adirondacks. I remember wondering as a kid how Old Forge made it down to -52° in February 1979. The Arctic high settled right over that region for perfect radiational cooling. Data for February 18, 1979 through February 18, 1979 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. OLD FORGE COOP -52 STILLWATER RESERVOIR COOP -44 WANAKENA RNGR SCHOOL COOP -41 HINCKLEY 2 SW COOP -40

The shallow nature is what makes it such an interesting phenomenon. I radiate much better here by a wooded area just north of the sound. You really notice the temperature falling pretty quickly when the sun goes down. My old area back on the South Shore didn't radiate very well. So I had to rely more on strong CAA and the winds staying strong for my colder mornings near the ocean and bays.

It’s pretty wild how shallow those radiational cooling inversions are. The low was only 57° at 50 meters up just above the treetops. That’s what the urban areas experienced this morning due to UHI around NYC.

LGA remains the cool spot as we get a warmer pattern to close out the month. LGA….-1.8 BDR….-1.4 NYC….-1.1 JFK…..-1.1 HPN….-0.3 EWR…..0.0 SMQ….+0.1 ISP……+0.2 FWN…+0.6 HVN….+1.0

We’ll see if a piece of the over the top warm up in Canada near the end of September can build down into the Northeast in October.

This summer was much drier in New England than 2010 was leading to the record low streamflows that some areas are experiencing.

Mid to perhaps upper 80s Tuesday as the models are slowing the front down. New run Old run

The recent summer pattern across the U.S. is a reversal of the Dust Bowl. The record heat has been located in the West and East with cooler and wetter in the middle. This is the opposite of the Dust Bowl with record heat and drought focused in the middle. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/20/JCLI-D-22-0716.1.xml Abstract A cooling trend in summer (May–August) daytime temperatures since the mid-twentieth century over the central United States contrasts with strong warming of the western and eastern United States. Prior studies based on data through 1999 suggested that this so-called warming hole arose mainly from internal climate variability and thus would likely disappear. Yet it has prevailed for two more decades, despite accelerating global warming, compelling reexamination of causes that in addition to natural variability could include anthropogenic aerosol–induced cooling, hydrologic cycle intensification by greenhouse gas increases, and land use change impacts. Here we present evidence for the critical importance of hydrologic cycle change resulting from ocean–atmosphere drivers. Observational analysis reveals that the warming hole’s persistence is consistent with unusually high summertime rainfall over the region during the first decades of the twenty-first century. Comparative analysis of large ensembles from four different climate models demonstrates that rainfall trends since the mid-twentieth century as large as observed can arise (although with low probability) via internal atmospheric variability alone, which induce warming-hole-like patterns over the central United States. In addition, atmosphere-only model experiments reveal that observed sea surface temperature changes since the mid-twentieth century have also favored central U.S cool/wet conditions during the early twenty-first century. We argue that this latter effect is symptomatic of external radiative forcing influences, which, via constraints on ocean warming patterns, have likewise contributed to persistence of the U.S. warming hole in roughly equal proportion to contributions by internal variability. These results have important ramifications for attribution of extreme events and predicting risks of record-breaking heat waves in the region.

Still looks pretty warm to me since the Atlantic is currently the 5th warmest on record for the date. We also have to remember that this is the warmest 1991-2020 climo. So the actual historical ranking is pretty high. The cold pool west of Ireland is from the locally stronger winds there with the deep low pressure.

I had 1.78 spread out over 3 days. My wettest single day was only .76. The last 1.02” in a day was way back on May 5th. 3-23-24 was my last 2.92” in one day. This was my 5th driest summer at only 4.99”. It was also my 4th warmest summer here. So all the vegetation and grass was on the brown side. But July 99 back on the South Shore of LI still holds the record for the brownest vegetation that I have seen. Nearly all the lawns and the parkways were completely brown.

Hoping the cutoff low to the SW can finally end the 13th longest daily streak with under 1.00” here since early May. Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation < 1.00 for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 244 2014-12-10 through 2015-08-10 2 240 1964-12-05 through 1965-08-01 3 200 2001-10-10 through 2002-04-27 4 194 1965-08-03 through 1966-02-12 5 171 2013-06-09 through 2013-11-26 6 160 1971-02-09 through 1971-07-18 7 159 1960-11-02 through 1961-04-09 8 151 2015-08-12 through 2016-01-09 9 148 1962-04-02 through 1962-08-27 10 146 1957-05-15 through 1957-10-07 11 142 2007-09-12 through 2008-01-31 - 142 1955-03-23 through 1955-08-11 12 138 1966-10-20 through 1967-03-06 13 137 2025-05-06 through 2025-09-19 14 132 1955-11-05 through 1956-03-15 15 131 2009-01-29 through 2009-06-08

Yeah, from the 60s to early 90s within a few inches of 25” was very common. There were a few seasons of near 30”+ and a few 20” and below. So a very balanced snowfall pattern during that stable colder era. The snowfall became all or nothing since 93-94. Most seasons have been over 30” or under 20” since then as the winters have continued to warm. The storm tracks remained cold enough to our south for many 30”+ seasons from 09-10 to 17-18. The warmer storm tracks since 18-19 have resulted in most seasons ending up with under 20” of snow. So it has been challenging to get a 30”+ season. Plus NYC hasn’t had a season near 25” since 12-13. So losing the higher end 30”+ seasons and continuing the decline in the near 25” seasons has resulted in the under 20” season becoming most common. NYC snowfall seasons near 25” 12-13….26.1” 08-09…27.6” 92-93…24.5” 90-91….24.9” 86-87….23.1” 84-85….24.1” 83-84….25.4” 82-83…..27.2” 81-82……24.6” 78-79…..29.4” 76-77…..24.5” 73-74…..23.5” 71-72…..22.9” 69-70….25.6” 64-65….24.4”

The lowest 10 year for JFK was 18.0” from 83-84 to 92-93. So this 7 year stretch has been lower that 10 year. The 7 year got down to 15.8” vs the current 14.5”. The key difference is that snow drought ended with 93-94 and 95-96 since the climate was so much colder than our modern 2020s climate. Unlikely we see a 50”+ season and a 70”+ season during the remainder of the 2020s within 2 years apart to break this snow drought without the greatest volcanic eruption in hundreds to thousands of years. Unfortunately, we don’t have a reliable long range volcanic forecast system.

Record heat to our west yesterday with temperatures only missing 90° by 1°. This is why I have been discussing the potential for 85°-90°heat since late August even when models weren’t showing it. Models often underestimate the heat potential during flash droughts. 443 CDUS41 KCTP 190624 CLIIPT CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 224 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2025 ................................... ...THE WILLIAMSPORT PA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 18 2025... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1895 TO 2025 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 89R 351 PM 88 1964 75 14 78