bluewave

Harrison and Newark are both in the westerly downslope zone today. Harrison NJ 2025-07-09 15:16 APRSWXNET-CWOP 94

It’s sounds like you would really enjoy living is a desert environment. If you can deal with the heat, it’s actually a very beautiful ecosystem. I tend to enjoy cooler climates and was fine with all the cooler summers that I used to get growing up back in Long Beach.

No surprise given the record marine heatwave east of Japan.

Newark was tied with Corona for the highest temperature yesterday at 100°. Back on 6-24 Newark was only 3rd warmest. But now that NY State and Con Edison installed the Micronet, we can get an accurate assessment of what kind of heat the urban dwellers have to deal with. Since our airports are all right on the water and get cooling sea breezes. People living in these interior urban centers away from the water experience higher temperatures. 7-8-25 highest temperatures across the region Corona, Queens…..100° Newark, NJ…………100° 6-24-25 highest temperatures across the region Ozone Park South, Queens….105° Corona, Queens ………………..104° Harrison, NJ………………………103° Newark, NJ……………………….103° JFK…………………………………..102° LGA………………………………….101° ISP…………………………….……..101°

It’s impressive how competitive Eastern Long Island has been on 90° days so far. New York 90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 9, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 12 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 12 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 10 POUGHKEEPSIE/HUDSON VALLEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 10 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 10 PORT JERVIS COOP 9 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 9 New York-Kennedy Airport Area ThreadEx 9 SARA NEW YORK RAWS 9 ST. JAMES COOP 9 DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 8 SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW COOP 8 VICTOR 2NW COOP 8 LANSING MANOR COOP 8 WEBSTER 2 NE COOP 8 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 8 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 7 DANSVILLE COOP 7 SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 7 Islip Area ThreadEx 7 GANG MILLS NEW YORK RAWS 7 SHERBURNE NEW YORK RAWS 7 New Jersey 90° Day Data for January 1, 2025 through July 9, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 17 Newark Area ThreadEx 17 OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 16 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 15 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 15 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 14 HARRISON COOP 14 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 13 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 13

There was no manipulation of the data. Our coldest winters in the CONUS have been warming at a slightly faster rate than the warmest winters have. You have to put away the notion that temperatures are going to warm evenly everywhere and across different seasons. The US and the world were in more of a stable climate from the 1890s to 1970s. There was only a very gently incline in temperatures over this period. The early stages of the warming acceleration didn’t begin until the 1980s. This rate of warming has rapidly increased over the last decade. You originally posted the maps from the 1978-1979 winter. The reason we could still get very cold winters as recently as the 1970s was that the temperatures weren’t all that different from the 1890s. It was a bit more than a degree cooler than experienced in the 1890s and 1930s. So it was in the same ballpark as the very cold winters from the earlier eras. 2024-2025 and 2020-2021 were essentially tied for the coldest winters of the 2020s so far. This level of cold is significantly warmer than the 1970s were. It’s no coincidence that the coldest winter was right before the steep increase in our winter warming began. Sometimes we get very cold months or seasons just before temperatures begin a steep rise. So this is why things have warmed so much relative to the 1970s. Coldest U.S. winters by decade since 1890s 1890s…27.95° 1900s…28.69° 1910s….29.11° 1920s...28.73° 1930s…27.78° 1940s….30.14° 1950s….31.44° 1960s….30.40° 1970s….26.62° 1980s….30.56° 1990s….31.12° 2000s….31.26° 2010s…..30.70° 2020s…..33.64°

Great Lakes snowbelts can do very well again like last winter with the record lake temperatures continuing. Record-breaking lake effect snow arrives as winter starts BY NICOLE COLLINS PUBLISHED DECEMBER 11, 2024 Not only were these totals impressive, but some were record breaking! Erie, Pennsylvania broke its snowiest day record with 22.6 inches falling on November 29 since records began in 1893. Gaylord, Michigan had 24.8 inches on November 29, making it the snowiest day on record since the site began recording in 1998 and Perrysburg, New York saw 30.6 inches on November 30, making it the snowiest day on record since the site began recording in 2003. This impressive lake effect snow event may be attributed to the warming water temperatures of the Great Lakes. By the end of November, both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario had year to date record high water surface temperatures. This is partly due to both an above-average 2024 fall season temperatures as well as a warm 2023-2024 winter season. This continues the average warming trend in the lake temperatures over the past 30 years. Warmer lakes increase the temperature difference between the water and air, encouraging more lake effect snow when conditions are right. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/record-breaking-lake-effect-snow-arrives-winter-starts

Most of the models had mid to upper 90s. Plus you can’t use convective outlooks as an IMBY forecast. It’s a general forecast for the outlook region. Some areas got very little rain and others had flooding.

1978-1979 was the coldest winter on record for the CONUS going back to 1895. The average DJF temperature was 26.62°. The 2013-2014 winter was the 33rd coldest at 31.25°. This past winter was the #106 coldest at 34.31°. So in just under than 50 years our coldest winters have warmed by 7.69°F. This winter had one of the smallest cold pools on record for the Northern Hemisphere.

What models have been you been looking at? They all had 90s today with very high dewpoints. Followed by afternoon thunderstorms. Florida weather means thunderstorms one minute and the sun coming out soon after. Not some kind of washout. Very heavy rain in a short amount of time. We need organized tropical systems for a complete washout this time of year.

Florida Keys weather here along the CT Shoreline. New Haven MOSUNNY 88 78 72 SW12G17 29.96F HX 101 KEY WEST MOSUNNY 89 78 70 NE12G20 30.16F HX 103

The semi-permanent subtropical ridge between 30°-60° N circling the Northern Hemisphere warming the SSTs below. As to why that mid-latitude band is the focus is anyone’s guess. While the climate models forecast the ridge axis and SST warming to be located more north, It’s verifying further south. Probably just an incomplete model based on our current understanding of the climate. But at least the model got the idea of stronger ridging warming the SSTs below correct even if it’s located further south.

Yeah, this has been the dominant pattern of the 2020s.

Active convective pattern next few weeks. So it doesn’t look like the late June heat will be able to be matched through the reliable forecast period. But a generally warmer pattern with plenty of convection opportunities. Through July 14th July 14-21

We keep setting new records by significant margins with that WPAC warm pool driving this pattern.

SMQ set their all-time highest dew point temperature of 83° back in June. They just came in 2nd with a dew point of 81 yesterday. So a record amount of atmospheric moisture around the world leading to the numerous extreme flooding events. The SPC HREF has a 2”-3”+ max potential with the better storm coverage for later today.

The models have better coverage of the storms tomorrow.

Dewpoints getting close to 80° here on the CT Shoreline. New Haven PTSUNNY 85 78 80 S8G21 29.97F HX 96

Argentina was the place to go recently to avoid all the record heat around the world.

22-23 was a little lower for snowfall around NYC than 01-02. But 01-02 remains a little warmer. If the 01-02 snowfall and temperature departures occurred again in this much warmer climate, then NYC would probably finish up with only around 1” or less of snow and a winter average temperature close to 43.0°. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Oct through Sep Top 10 lowest snowfall seasons Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2022-2023 2.3 0 2 1972-1973 2.8 0 3 2001-2002 3.5 0 4 1918-1919 3.8 0 5 2019-2020 4.8 0 6 1931-1932 5.3 0 7 1997-1998 5.5 0 8 2011-2012 7.4 0 9 2023-2024 7.5 0 10 1988-1989 8.1 0 - 1877-1878 8.1 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Top 10 Warmest Winters Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2001-2002 41.5 0 2 2022-2023 41.0 0 - 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2023-2024 40.6 0 4 2011-2012 40.5 0 5 1931-1932 40.1 0 6 1997-1998 39.6 0 7 2016-2017 39.3 0 8 2019-2020 39.2 0 9 1990-1991 39.1 0 10 1998-1999 38.6 0

These 75°+ dewpoints have become the new normal for us over the last decade. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=yes&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=12N&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2025&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=js https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=yes&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=12N&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2025&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=js

Third warmest June on record right behind the last two years.

Most of my posts are based on what has already happened over the last 30 to 60 years around NYC Metro. The last 7 seasons with well below normal snowfall are just a small microcosm of this greater pattern with our snowfall over this much longer period. The same way the 09-10 to 17-18 period was. During the colder climate era from the early 1960s to early 1990s my area would get many snowfall seasons near the middle of the range with very few well above or well below seasons. As our climate began to really warm since the mid 90s, the snowfall around NYC has shifted to an all or nothing type of pattern. Very few seasons near the middle of the range anymore with nearly all seasons now well below or well above. Since the mid 90s we have become exclusively reliant on KU benchmark snowstorms to reach average to above average snowfall. So from 09-10 to 17-18 we had a record number of these storms. We were in a transition phase when we began to see extreme winter warmth starting with the +13 December 2015. This carried over into 17-18 with our first 80° winter warmth in February 2018. But the storm tracks still remained cold. So we were getting warm and snowy winters. Things began to shift again in 18-19 with the storm tracks becoming warmer to match the general warmth which began in December 2015. So the storm tracks still warming lagged the general winter warming which began in 15-16. The 7 year period since 18-19 has featured the warmest 7 year winter storm track and lowest snowfall totals. So now we are getting consistently warmer background winter patterns and storm tracks. While this past winter was the first since 15-16 to feature near to slightly below average temperatures, the storm tracks remained warm like they have since 18-19. While the NYC average winter temperature was near 35°, the average temperature on the days that .25 or more of precipitation fell was 41°. So smother well below normal snowfall season. From the early 60s to 90s we had multiple ways to get closer to average snowfall. So we didn’t have to exclusively rely on benchmark KU events. The colder pattern allowed for hugger tracks which dumped heavier snow amounts before mixing to rain. Plus their we’re frequent clipper tracks to our south which have been missing in recent years. So fewer options to get to average snowfall. These days it’s all Great Lakes cutter tracks which are all rain. The hugger tracks are too warm to deliver the heavier snows which got us to normal snowfall in the colder climate. These days the benchmark tracks have been replaced by cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. Looking forward we have a few options. While the winter warming absent a major volcanic event will continue, it’s uncertain whether we will see at least an intermittent return to benchmark storm tracks again. Scenario #1 is that we shifted into a permanently lower snowfall regime in 18-19 and the low snowfall seasons will become the new normal. Maybe an odd snowy season now and then in the mix. Scenario #2 is a temporary shift to more benchmark tracks and closer to average snowfall later in the 2020s into the early 2030s. But winters would still likely stay warmer even though the storm tracks shifted to colder. We would eventually see another period of declining winter snowfall into the 2030s as the winter warming and warmer storm tracks reduce the snows again. Scenario #3 would be a major volcanic eruption not seen for hundreds or thousands of years. Temporary return to colder and snowier winters. Very uncertain since a reliable long range volcanic forecast still doesn’t exist yet.

The sea breeze fronts will probably be the focus for convection along with the remnant moisture from Chantal. Some areas might not see much rain next few days. While others could get a quick 2-3”+. Kind of like Florida where you can drive a few miles between sunny and thunderstorms.

The 12z Euro has a Miami summer pattern here form the next 10 days. Many days with 75+ dew points and thunderstorms. So the spots that get the best training will probably have flooding concerns.