bluewave

So far the Northeast temperatures have been running near average since the beginning of December. Slightly below average temperatures in December and a little above average for January so far. The cold coming in from the 20th to 25th will result in the December 1st through January 25th average temperature departure running below average. The Northeast has had numerous years that were much colder than this since the 90s through the first half of winter. So whether this winter will be the first colder one in the Northeast in 10 years will depend on the February departure. The combination of record warmth in Canada leading to the delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay and record Great Lakes warmth has lead to the Northeast departures running warmer than the Mid-Atlantic. Plus this is against the warmest 1991-2020 climate normals. If we were using 1981-2010 climate normals then the Northeast would be warmer than average for the 1st half of the winter. So depending on February the Northeast could finish the winter below average using 1991-2020 climate normals and above average vs 1981-2010 normals. But if the February temperature departures are wam enough, then the Northeast will finish above average again.

76-77 was the 8th coldest winter temperature on record for NYC since 1870. It was the last time NYC had a top 10 coldest winter at 28.4°. 93-94 was the 20th coldest winter temperature at 31.1°. 14-15 was the 22nd coldest winter at 31.4° and the last time NYC had a winter average under 32.0°. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1917-1918 25.7 0 2 1880-1881 26.5 0 3 1903-1904 27.3 0 4 1919-1920 27.4 0 5 1874-1875 27.7 4 - 1872-1873 27.7 0 6 1904-1905 28.1 0 7 1935-1936 28.3 0 8 1976-1977 28.4 0 - 1884-1885 28.4 0 - 1882-1883 28.4 0 9 1892-1893 28.6 0 - 1887-1888 28.6 0 10 1878-1879 29.0 2 11 1933-1934 29.1 0 12 1871-1872 29.5 2 13 1962-1963 29.9 0 - 1922-1923 29.9 0 - 1885-1886 29.9 0 - 1876-1877 29.9 0 14 1947-1948 30.0 0 - 1886-1887 30.0 0 - 1883-1884 30.0 0 15 1894-1895 30.2 0 16 1977-1978 30.3 0 17 1969-1970 30.5 0 - 1944-1945 30.5 0 18 1911-1912 30.7 0 19 1958-1959 30.8 0 20 1993-1994 31.1 0 - 1934-1935 31.1 0 21 2002-2003 31.2 0 - 1967-1968 31.2 0 - 1909-1910 31.2 0 - 1870-1871 31.2 4 22 2014-2015 31.4 0 - 1921-1922 31.4 0 23 1898-1899 31.5 0 24 1939-1940 31.6 0 - 1906-1907 31.6 0 25 1960-1961 31.7 0 - 1916-1917 31.7 0 - 1900-1901 31.7 0 26 1913-1914 31.9 0

76-77 was the coldest winter on record for JFK with an average temperature of 28.0°. So even though the snowfall total was only 22.7” for the season, JFK was able have 38 days with 1” of snow depth. It was the only time JFK had 35+ days with 1” OTG and under 33.8” on the season. 76-77 was one of those winters from a colder era when we could get numerous smaller and one moderate event and have a snowfall total in the 20s without someone in the area getting a big KU and 10”+ totals. The heaviest snowfall that winter was a 4-6” moderate event in mid-January. Data for January 14, 1977 through January 15, 1977 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MINEOLA COOP 6.5 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 6.3 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 6.0 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 6.0 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 6.0 NY SCARSDALE COOP 6.0 NY MARYKNOLL COOP 5.9 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 5.8 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 5.6 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 5.5 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 5.2 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 5.2 NJ CRANFORD COOP 5.0 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 5.0 NJ MAHWAH COOP 5.0 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 5.0 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 4.8 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 4.7 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 4.5 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 4.5 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 4.5 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 4.5 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 4.5 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 4.3

CRW is actually colder than ALB which is pretty rare in early January. CRW…..25.3°….-9.9° ALB…….26.0°…+0.7°

This is a function of the record Great Lakes warmth combined with lower pressures and stronger winds. So the clouds and wind at night kept the minimum departures up preventing good radiational cooling. More clouds during the day reduced the sunshine with lower maximum temperature departures across the region. But both the maximum and minimum departures were lower further south where the flow didn’t cross the warmer Great Lakes. Plus Eastern Canada has been very warm leading to the delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay. So multiple ways to get a warmer departure north and colder departure south pattern.

13-14 was a more impressive winter to our west for days with 1” OTG. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending days with 1” OTG 1 1995-1996 62 0 2 2004-2005 55 0 3 1977-1978 53 1 4 2014-2015 48 0 5 1993-1994 46 3 6 2010-2011 45 0 7 2013-2014 39 0 - 2000-2001 39 23 8 1964-1965 37 1 9 1976-1977 36 0 10 1963-1964 35 7 11 1969-1970 34 2 12 2009-2010 32 0 13 2020-2021 30 0 - 2017-2018 30 0 14 2008-2009 29 0 - 2003-2004 29 7 15 2012-2013 27 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending with 1” OTG 1 1995-1996 68 0 2 1977-1978 66 0 3 1993-1994 64 0 4 2013-2014 62 0 5 1947-1948 60 3 6 2010-2011 57 5 - 1935-1936 57 0 7 1960-1961 55 0 - 1917-1918 55 6 8 2014-2015 53 8 - 1919-1920 53 4 9 1976-1977 51 0 10 1933-1934 50 0 11 1969-1970 47 0 - 1944-1945 47 0 12 2002-2003 46 23 13 2000-2001 45 0 14 1986-1987 44 0 - 1922-1923 44 6

Yeah, 50 days with over 1” OTG was a much different pattern compared to recent years. Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending days with 1” or more OTG 2025-04-30 9 2024-04-30 16 2023-04-30 0 2022-04-30 12 2021-04-30 37 2020-04-30 4 2019-04-30 11 2018-04-30 28 2017-04-30 18 2016-04-30 18 2015-04-30 53 2014-04-30 62 2013-04-30 13 2012-04-30 6 2011-04-30 57

This January drier period looks more transient compared to the extended dry period from late August into late November.

We have been doing very well east of NYC since the fall dry pattern ended back in late November with 10.00”+ in many areas. Data for November 20, 2024 through January 13, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 11.42 CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 11.30 NY NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 11.19 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 11.15 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 11.13 NY ST. JAMES COOP 10.79 NY CENTERPORT COOP 10.77 NY CENTERPORT 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 10.73 CT PAWCATUCK 1.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.73 CT EAST LYME 0.6 N CoCoRaHS 10.73 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 10.71 CT PAWCATUCK 0.8 SE CoCoRaHS 10.67 CT STONINGTON 1.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.66 CT CHESTER CENTER 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.63 CT UNCASVILLE-OXOBOXO VALLEY 1.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.63 NY SELDEN 1.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.48 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 10.42 NY PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.41 CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 10.29 NY CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N CoCoRaHS 10.28 NY MANORVILLE 1.8 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.26 NY ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.23 CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 10.22 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.22 CT MYSTIC 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 10.22 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 10.15 NY ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 10.14 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 10.14 CT NORWICH 5.4 SE CoCoRaHS 10.13 NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.03 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 10.03 NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 10.03 NY FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 9.97 CT MONROE 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 9.96 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 9.88 CT GUILFORD COOP 9.88 NY MALVERNE 0.5 SE CoCoRaHS 9.87 CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 9.87 CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.86 NY REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 9.85 NY SEAFORD 0.4 SE CoCoRaHS 9.79 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.79 CT STONINGTON 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.73 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.72 NY RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 9.72 CT DANBURY COOP 9.72 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 9.71 CT ESSEX VILLAGE 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 9.70 NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 9.69 CT NEW LONDON 1.0 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.68 NY BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.67 CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 9.62 NY RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.60 NY MANHASSET HILLS 0.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.55 NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.54 CT MOODUS 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 9.54 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 9.51 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 9.49 CT WATERFORD 1.1 E CoCoRaHS 9.47 CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 9.43 NY BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.41 CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.39 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 9.39 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 9.37 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.35 CT OLD LYME 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.27 CT RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.25 CT STAMFORD 1.0 S CoCoRaHS 9.25 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 9.24 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.22 CT MADISON CENTER 1.3 N CoCoRaHS 9.21 CT MYSTIC 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 9.21 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.18 CT NEW CANAAN 3.8 N CoCoRaHS 9.16 CT NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 9.16 CT COLCHESTER 5.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.15 CT BETHEL 3.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.09 NY JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 9.07 CT NIANTIC 1.1 SW CoCoRaHS 9.07 NJ HARRISON COOP 9.02 NY SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.01 CT OLD LYME 3.4 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.01

Maybe the PCC has finally shifted. The record warming started before the El Niño became established in Nino 3.4 during 2023 with that unusually strong WWB closer to Nino 1+2 and record warming there for so early in an El Niño event. While Nino 3.4 has finally been declared to be in La Niña, Nino 1+2 is still having warmer readings with unusual WWB activity there for a La Niña fall into winter. But this new paper may only be scratching the surface in terms of our understanding of how the Pacific can modulate warming on a global scale. So perhaps we need to focus on the unusual events which continue near Nino 1+2 since the late winter back in 2023. https://communities.springernature.com/posts/an-emerging-pacific-climate-change-pattern it might reverse and, even if this meant drought alleviation in the southwest and East Africa, would herald a phase of strong global warming. Our new research supports the first possibility. We identified an emerging climate change signal in the tropical Pacific that we call the Pacific Climate Change (PCC) pattern. This is clearly distinguishable from the decadal variability of the IPO. While the IPO is associated with a meridionally broad, wedge-shaped sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly, the PCC, which has emerged since the mid-1950s, features a narrow band of cooling along the equator with warming elsewhere. The PCC emerges over time while the IPO oscillates back and forth as expected if the PCC is a signal of climate change and the IPO is natural variability. Both the PCC and IPO involve changes in thermocline depth and subsurface temperature in the upwelling regions of the central to eastern equatorial Pacific. Despite this similarity we show, using ocean data and a simple wind-driven ocean model, that the PCC’s atmosphere-ocean dynamics are fundamentally different from those of the IPO.

Looks like January 20 to 27 could be our coldest week of the winter so far. Then we see the La Niña seasonal progression on all the guidance. So the usual La Niña warm up heading into February. EPS Jan 20 to 27 Jan 27 to Feb 3

Those winds were crossing the warmer Great Lakes. Plus Canada still hasn’t cooled off yet from all the record warmth in recent years. This has lead to the delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay. It looks like Canada is finally forecast to start getting colder next weekend.

They are taking longer than normal to cool down due to recent record warmth and keeping the minimums warmer so far this month in the Northeast.

Areas just to the south are colder so far this month since the flow isn’t coming directly off the warmer Great Lakes.

The lack of good radiational cooling so far this month is keeping the outlying areas departures warmer than the urban areas. POU…+1.6 HPN…+0.1 ISP…..+0.1 JFK…+0.6 BDR….0.0 SMQ…+0.2 EWR…-0.6 LGA….-2.3 NYC….-2.6 New Brunswick…+0.2

Could be the first single digits of the season for NYC as Canada finally loads up with Arctic air.

New Brunswick is +0.2 for January so far with the warmer minimums and cooler maximums. Climatological Data for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - January 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 425 293 - - 354 0 0.84 1.5 - Average 38.6 26.6 32.6 0.2 - - - - 0.3 Normal 40.8 24.0 32.4 - 359 0 1.35 2.5 2025-01-01 56 39 47.5 14.3 17 0 0.24 0.0 0 2025-01-02 49 35 42.0 9.0 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-03 44 30 37.0 4.1 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-04 38 28 33.0 0.3 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-05 34 25 29.5 -3.0 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-06 34 26 30.0 -2.4 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-07 30 18 24.0 -8.2 41 0 0.10 1.0 1 2025-01-08 34 23 28.5 -3.6 36 0 0.00 0.0 1 2025-01-09 31 20 25.5 -6.5 39 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-10 35 23 29.0 -2.8 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-01-11 40 26 33.0 1.3 32 0 0.50 0.5 1 2025-01-12 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-13 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-14 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-15 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-16 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-17 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-18 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-19 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-20 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-21 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-22 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-23 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-24 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-25 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-26 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-27 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-28 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-29 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-30 M M M M M M M M M 2025-01-31 M M M M M M M M M

There were two La Niña winters in 1970s and 1980s which had that type of La Niña seasonal progression. 75-76 and 83-84 had a colder winter departure through January 31st. But the much warmer February departure shifted the whole winter above average for the colder climate normals of that era. NYC 83-84 Dec…-1.0 Jan…-1.9 Feb…+7.2 NYC 75-76 Dec…+0.4 Jan….-4.8 Feb….+6.5

How cold we get during the January 20th to 27th window will probably determine whether we see our first colder than average winter in the last 10 years. Since we want to be able to build up a large enough colder departure that’s able withstand the typical warmer La Niña February climatology. Several La Niña winters which were colder through January shifted warmer based on February. Plus it will be interesting to see if the much warmer 91-20 climatology plays a role. Since it’s technically possible to get a colder winter based on 91-20 but not 81-10 or 71-00 normals.

My point is that it will require a shift to BM KU snowstorm tracks again from now through 2029 for NYC to finish the 2020s with over 20” of snowfall. The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet since 2018-2019 plus the much warmer winters over this period have combined to the lower the NYC average to 14.2” so far. In a rapidly warming climate there are fewer ways for NYC to reach average to above average seasonal snowfall into the 20s range. KU benchmark snowstorms were the main contributor to the normal to above average seasons in NYC since 1994. Prior to 1994 NYC had a wider variety of was to achieve normal to above normal snowfall. There were many fewer KU events from the 50s through early 90s. The winters were cold enough back then to make it closer to average with a number of small to moderate events. But with the warming climate, the temperatures have become too marginal at times for smaller to moderate events to get us closer to seasonal averages with so many changeovers to rain. So the 60s through early 90s were cold enough to not have to exclusively rely on high end KU BM snowstorms in order to have a snowfall season closer to average. 2010-2018 was an extreme outlier in the modern climate record for NESIS KU snowstorms. So the higher snowfall totals from bigger events masked the long term warming trend. Plus NYC hasn’t had a winter near 32° average since 14-15. These very cold winters occurred at regular intervals up through that winter going back to the 60s. So many of the lower 5 year periods you mentioned could count on these very cold intervals to help boost the snowfall back up after slow stretches. So It’s less likely in a warming climate that NYC will have the same number of colder winters near 32° that they had in previous decades. Plus without that cold the burden for average to above average snowfall will fall almost exclusively on BM KU snowstorms. But in order to get back to that we need to see a relaxation of the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet which has limited benchmark storm tracks since 18-19. While it’s possible that this faster Pacific Jet pattern may diminish in the coming years, we still may not get back to the volume of KU events enjoyed from 2010 to 2018. All we can say for sure is that this Pacific Jet regime has coincided with an unprecedented increase in Pacific Basin marine heatwaves. Whether these continuing marine heatwaves result in this jet pattern continuing for the remainder of the 2020s also remains to be seen.

Yeah, only a small cold departure so far this winter against the very warm new 91-20 normals. The very strong winds have made it feel much colder. Plus it was so warm the last few winters that this step down feels much colder than it actually has been.

We had a much narrower distribution range of snowfall back in that era. So many years closer to something in the middle. ISP has probably seen the most extreme distribution or variance shift. From 1963 to 1993 there were 15 seasons clustered in the 18-32” range. Since 1994 only 1 season in that mid range. All the other seasons were dominated by very high and very low years since then. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 0.4 5.3 10.2 9.9 5.5 0.7 32.0 2023-2024 0.0 T T 3.1 7.8 0.0 0.0 10.9 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.4 T 3.0 1.6 0.0 5.0 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 37.0 2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7 2012-2013 0.0 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 46.9 2011-2012 0.3 0.0 T 3.8 0.6 T 0.0 4.7 2010-2011 0.0 T 14.9 34.4 3.9 2.1 T 55.3 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 25.3 6.4 21.7 0.4 0.0 53.8 2008-2009 0.0 T 10.4 8.9 3.3 13.6 T 36.2 2007-2008 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.8 7.3 T 0.0 10.7 2006-2007 0.0 T 0.0 1.0 4.2 3.8 T 9.0 2005-2006 0.0 0.5 7.6 4.7 19.9 3.2 0.1 36.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 7.0 21.5 17.0 13.3 0.0 58.8 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 15.5 19.1 1.1 5.7 0.0 41.4 2002-2003 0.0 1.0 16.0 2.6 26.3 3.7 5.0 54.6 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7 T T 0.0 3.7 2000-2001 T 0.0 10.8 9.2 8.6 10.3 T 38.9 1999-2000 0.0 T 0.4 5.8 2.6 0.2 T 9.0 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 3.0 4.5 2.8 9.1 T 19.4 1997-1998 0.0 T 1.0 T T 1.6 T 2.6 1996-1997 0.0 T 1.2 3.3 2.2 3.7 2.0 12.4 1995-1996 0.0 3.0 13.3 20.2 19.0 12.0 9.6 77.1 1994-1995 0.0 T T T 5.1 T 0.0 5.1 1993-1994 0.0 T 3.3 8.8 20.0 5.0 0.0 37.1 Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T 0.6 3.4 8.1 8.6 4.3 0.8 25.8 1992-1993 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.3 10.9 13.3 0.0 28.6 1991-1992 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.3 1.5 7.6 T 13.4 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 4.0 3.6 4.3 1.9 0.0 13.8 1989-1990 0.0 7.6 0.2 2.0 2.0 4.2 3.0 19.0 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 10.4 4.4 1.2 3.0 T 19.0 1987-1988 0.0 1.1 4.2 10.7 0.1 3.4 0.0 19.5 1986-1987 0.0 T 3.4 8.8 8.6 1.7 0.0 22.5 1985-1986 0.0 T 2.1 2.6 10.4 0.1 T 15.2 1984-1985 0.0 T 4.7 13.5 8.7 T T 26.9 1983-1984 0.0 T 2.6 11.9 T 13.0 0.0 27.5 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.2 1.5 26.1 T 1.1 31.9 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 1.0 18.1 0.3 T 16.0 35.4 1980-1981 0.0 T 0.5 13.2 T 7.1 0.0 20.8 1979-1980 T 0.0 1.5 4.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 9.0 1978-1979 0.0 4.0 T 6.9 17.2 T T 28.1 1977-1978 0.0 0.8 0.2 27.7 28.9 10.4 T 68.0 1976-1977 0.0 T 6.2 11.2 6.6 4.0 0.0 28.0 1975-1976 0.0 T 11.0 7.8 7.5 3.9 0.0 30.2 1974-1975 0.0 0.5 T 1.8 11.0 1.2 T 14.5 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 T 9.0 17.0 8.0 T 34.0 1972-1973 T 0.0 T 1.5 3.0 T T 4.5 1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.1 12.5 1.0 T 15.6 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.3 2.0 1.0 2.5 18.9 1969-1970 0.0 T 12.0 7.0 7.0 1.0 T 27.0 1968-1969 0.0 T 3.0 T 19.5 11.0 0.0 33.5 1967-1968 0.0 2.5 5.0 9.1 3.0 3.0 0.0 22.6 1966-1967 0.0 0.0 8.6 1.0 19.5 21.7 T 50.8 1965-1966 0.0 0.0 T 12.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 15.7 1964-1965 0.0 0.0 2.0 24.6 7.4 4.5 1.0 39.5 1963-1964 0.0 T 11.0 11.7 16.0 1.0 0.0 39.7

That’s the point. Even in the 1970s and 1980s the NYC decadal average snowfall got close to or above 20”. The 19-20 to 23-24 new 2020s average so far in NYC is only 14.2”. So NYC will need a big increase the remainder of this season through 2029 to avoid the least snowiest decade on record. Let’s hope the BM KU storm track comes to life in a very big way. Since we don’t have a cold enough climate anymore to get near and into the 20s for seasonal snowfall with a bunch of small to moderate events like numerous years prior to the 1990s. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 T 2.6 4.4 7.1 0.1 T 14.2 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 7.5 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T 0.1 2.3 7.9 5.4 3.0 1.0 19.7 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1 1987-1988 0.0 1.1 2.6 13.9 1.5 T 0.0 19.1 1986-1987 0.0 T 0.6 13.6 7.0 1.9 0.0 23.1 1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0 1984-1985 0.0 T 5.5 8.4 10.0 0.2 T 24.1 1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.9 21.5 T 0.8 27.2 1981-1982 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.8 0.4 0.7 9.6 24.6 1980-1981 0.0 T 2.8 8.0 T 8.6 0.0 19.4 1979-1980 T 0.0 3.5 2.0 2.7 4.6 T 12.8 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T 0.3 2.0 8.0 9.9 2.3 0.1 22.5 1978-1979 0.0 2.2 0.5 6.6 20.1 T T 29.4 1977-1978 0.0 0.2 0.4 20.3 23.0 6.8 T 50.7 1976-1977 0.0 T 5.1 13.0 5.8 0.6 T 24.5 1975-1976 0.0 T 2.3 5.6 5.0 4.4 T 17.3 1974-1975 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 10.6 0.3 T 13.1 1973-1974 0.0 0.0 2.8 7.8 9.4 3.2 0.3 23.5 1972-1973 T T T 1.8 0.8 0.2 T 2.8 1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9 1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.4 11.4 T 1.3 0.4 15.5 1969-1970 0.0 T 6.8 8.4 6.4 4.0 T 25.6

JFK is off to the slowest snowfall start of any decade going back to the 60s. The first 5 seasons of the 2020s through last year was only 15.0”. The previous slowest start was the 70s at only 15.6”. So JFK will need a big increase in KU events ASAP for through 28-29 to avoid a new lowest snowfall decade. Remember, the last 5 seasons of the 1970s averaged 25.9” to get back to 20.8” on the decade. So JFK will need a big finish to the 2020s to get above 20”. JFK seasonal snowfall 2020s so far from 19-20 to 20-24….15.0” 2010s…32.3” 2000s…25.1” 1990s…20.8” 1980s…20.4” 1970s…20.8” 1960s…30.4”