bluewave

That was the case with this event. Euro came over 500 miles NW along with the GFS. Plus the RGEM shifted about 50-100 miles east.

1895 is their benchmark storm.

The SPC HREF likes your area of Nassau out to NW Suffolk the best. Very similar to growing up in LB from the 70s to 90s. But in recent decades the South Shore has scored more wins than in the old days.

I fully explained it in the other thread if you go back and read the posts.

Again, It was originally showing next to nothing for most of the area since it was originally suppressed to the south. So now that it’s coming late to the party doesn’t make it consistent. Still several pieces of guidance further west than the Euro.

Again, the Euro has been the most suppressed with this event out of all the guidance.

Again, models have been all over the place with snowfall amounts and the placement of those amounts. You can see why posters west of I-95 would be hesitant to give the Euro high marks based on this original suppression forecast and under 1”. You can go back to 2010 and see how models usually don’t have much of a clue on snowfall beyond a day or two. Those headline model skill scores really don’t apply to East Coast storm tracks. We can remember how suppressed the Euro was for January 2016 and the actual totals were more than double what the Euro had a day before. Remember how some people didn’t want to believe the amped up NAM which was correct. Or when the Euro had an historic NYC snowfall in January 2015 but a wide miss with heavier totals east. But you are correct in a sense that models usually don’t completely miss storms. Unless we go back to January 2000. But P-types and amounts are usually in play sometimes right up to nowcast time. Posters west of NYC hesitant to give the Euro high scores on this original Euro first guess

But the models are seldom correct with snow amounts beyond a day or two. So it’s not worth it to get overly invested until much closer in. Since that type of IMBY snow longer range forecasting often leads to disappointment. Unless we go back to 2010-2018 when every snowstorm seemed to overperform.

We track low placement from 5 days out and are not concerned with P-Types that early. The Euro and GFS started out very suppressed well Southeast of the Benchmark. So the CMC can shift 60-100 miles east next few runs and still win on storm track. Snow amounts are always the last thing we are concerned about since model skill beyond a few days has always been very low here.

The GFS originally had a fish storm and now has come back to the west. When we evaluate storm tracks nobody is taking P-Types from 5 days out or longer verbatim. The Euro and EPS has been consistently to the east side of the model envelope. So if anything the GFS moved towards the CMC. The CMC can shift another 30-40 miles east and still end up closer in track than the Euro original had.

The Euro has been the SE outlier on this event further east than the GEM, GFS and several mesos. Notice how every model has been NW of the Euro and EPS. The 12z CMC is still closer to the coast.

Every new East Coast event starts a new record. Since different models do better or worse depending on the storm. Each storm can have one model which does better than others. That being said, it’s just one piece of guidance that gets factored in. Unfortunately, those general model skill scores usually don’t hold for East Coast storms.

It’s due to the lack of radiational cooling and strong winds. JFK has a much better location for radiational cooling in a marshy area near the Five Towns section of Long Island than LGA. So the minimum departure at LGA is -1 and JFK is +1.6.

Model forecasts since the beginning of January have been running too cold. We are only around -0.6 across the area averaged out. The cold coming in for next week doesn’t look too extreme by late January standards. Will probably be several degrees warmer for the lows in places like NYC than the Arctic outbreak in early February 2023. New Brunswick….-0.7 EWR…-0.4 SMQ…-0.2 FWN…+1.4 NYC….-2.2 LGA….-1.8 HPN…-0.2 JFK….+0.8 BDR….-0.5 ISP…..-0.5

I wouldn’t feel comfortable releasing any snowfall forecasts to the public until Saturday with such widely varying tracks between the GFS, Euro, and GEM.

Yeah, we don’t get Arctic cold like that anymore with -29° in Sussex County, -8° at Newark, -16° at SMQ, and -13° at New Brunswick. Monthly Data for January 1994 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SUSSEX 1 NW COOP -29 NEWTON COOP -26 SUSSEX 8 NNW COOP -20 LONG VALLEY COOP -18 Belvidere Area ThreadEx -17 BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP -17 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP -15 PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE COOP -13 BOONTON 1 SE COOP -13 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -13 SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP -11 WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP -11 LAMBERTVILLE COOP -10 CANOE BROOK COOP -10 Monthly Data for January 1985 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP -14 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -12 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP -12 NJ CRANFORD COOP -10 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP -10 NY PORT JERVIS COOP -9 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN -8 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP -8 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP -8 Monthly Data for January 1984 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -24 SUSSEX 1 NW COOP -21 NEWTON COOP -20 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP -18 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP -18 PEMBERTON COOP -17 Trenton Area ThreadEx -16 SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP -16 HIGH POINT PARK COOP -16 LAKEHURST NAS WBAN -16 EWING 3 WNW COOP -16 CANOE BROOK COOP -15 LONG VALLEY COOP -15 BOONTON 1 SE COOP -15 MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP -14 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx -13 WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E COOP -13 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP -13 Belvidere Area ThreadEx -12 BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP -12 ESTELL MANOR COOP -12 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP -12 RINGWOOD COOP -11 LAMBERTVILLE COOP -11 ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP -10 LITTLE FALLS COOP -10

The reason the temperature departures for the first half of winter weren’t as cold as past instances with similar teleconnections was due to the source regions in Eastern Canada being much warmer than average.

All you have to do is look at the departures for the entire Northeast section of the country this month to see what influence the warmer Great Lakes and Eastern Canada are having. The reason for the delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay and record high Great Lakes water temperatures has been the record Canadian warmth. This has been the case going back to May 2023.

There wasn’t a lack Great Lakes ice from the 70s to early 90s so the airmass warmed less crossing the Great Lakes prior to the warmer downsloping to the east. So NYC regularly got down to the 0 to -2 range even with westerly flow. NYC has struggled to drop under 5° since the 90s with a westerly flow which crosses the Great Lakes and downslopes. Most under 5° readings have been N to NW flow like when NYC got down to 3° in early February 2023. Monthly Data for February 2023 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY CARMEL 4N COOP -10 CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN -9 CT DANBURY COOP -7 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -6 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -5 CT GUILFORD COOP -5 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP -5 NY SHRUB OAK COOP -4 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN -4 NY PORT JERVIS COOP -4 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN -4 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -3 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN -3 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN -3 NY WEST POINT COOP -2 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP -2 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -1 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 0 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 0 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 0 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 1 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1 NY SYOSSET COOP 2 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 2 NY CENTERPORT COOP 3 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 3 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 3 NJ HARRISON COOP 3 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 3 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 4 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 4 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 5 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 5 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 5 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 5

NYC would have been much colder if the flow was more NW to NNW down the Hudson Valley. Wind direction is very important for our area. Back in the 70s to early 90s NYC could get to 0° or below on a westerly flow when the Great Lakes had record amounts of ice. These days for NYC to get below 0° like on 2-14-16 NYC needs N to NW flow down the Hudson Valley which avoids the Great Lakes.

The coldest departures so far went south of the Great Lakes this month. You can see the moderating effect of flow across the Great Lakes in conjunction with the warmth in Eastern Canada keeping the Northeast warmer than areas to the south relative to the means. While we will finish below average here this month due to the cold next week, coldest departures will remain south when the month finishes.

The average highs from 1-16 to 1-31 have been holding the line much better at ISP than 01-01 to 01-15 over the last 60 years. It will match up with the coldest temperatures of January coming in next week. Probably related to the mid portion of winter holding onto the cold better than December and February. It also lines up with the forecast moderation in temperatures for early February.

Even so, it’s been tough for NYC to dip under 5° with westerly flow Arctic outbreaks last 30 years. All the really cold days under 5° like the 3° on 2-3-23 had N to NW flow down the Hudson Valley. The Great Lakes often had a large coverage of ice back in the 70s to early 90s. So NYC went to 0° or lower multiple times with westerly flow.

Relative to the means, Florida had been having much more impressive cold than our area. While our area has been -0.4° during the first half of January, Northern Florida has been -5° to -8°. The Canadian warmth with the delayed freeze-up on Hudson Bay and near record Great Lakes temperatures and low ice has kept the Northeast much milder relative to the means. You could make the case that it has actually felt much colder in a place like Gainesville, Florida to the locals when they dropped from 75° to 26° within a few days earlier this month. Cold always seems to feel more pronounced when it’s closer to a much warmer day.

The GFS raw 2m low temps have been verifying closer than the Euro for NYC in recent years with these Arctic outbreaks. NYC usually needs a N to NW flow to drop under 5°. This was the case in early February 2023 when NYC made it down to 3°. The GFS has upper single digits to near 10° for NYC. Even if we blend the guidance it’s been tough for NYC to dip under 5° with westerly flow Arctic outbreaks.