bluewave

6th earliest 70° day for Sussex airport in NW NJ yesterday. First/Last Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2018 02-21 (2018) 76 11-01 (2018) 71 252 2017 02-24 (2017) 74 11-03 (2017) 71 251 2012 03-08 (2012) 70 10-06 (2012) 70 211 2016 03-08 (2016) 71 11-08 (2016) 71 244 2020 03-09 (2020) 71 11-10 (2020) 74 245 2006 03-10 (2006) 71 12-01 (2006) 71 265 2025 03-11 (2025) 70 - - - 2024 03-13 (2024) 72 11-18 (2024) 71 24

This is actually a very rare aspect of a warming climate that we sometimes see with a record snowstorm following record warmth. The warmth in the preceding months in New Orleans was more impressive than the cold which followed during January. November 2024 was one of the most anomalous warm months there at nearly +3.0° above its previous warmest November. Time Series Summary for New Orleans Area, LA (ThreadEx) - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 70.2 0 2 2020 67.3 0 - 1985 67.3 0 4 1978 67.1 0 5 2015 67.0 0 6 1973 66.6 0 We saw a similar occurrence in NYC in January 2016 with the record snowstorm following the most extreme warm month on record with December 2015 going +13.3° and the first 50° December warmer than most Novembers. That December was a record breaking 6° warmer than the previous warmest December. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 50.8 0 2 2023 44.6 0 3 2001 44.1 0 4 2021 43.8 0 5 1984 43.7 0 6 2006 43.6 0 7 2011 43.3 0 8 1998 43.1 0 9 1982 42.7 0 10 1990 42.6 0 Another occurrence of this rare phenomenon happened back in 2011 in Newark NJ. They experienced their warmest reading on record reaching 108° in July 2011. Then their biggest October snowstorm on record a few months later. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2011 108 0 2 2001 105 0 - 1993 105 0 - 1966 105 0 - 1953 105 0 - 1949 105 0 The one common denominator with these events was that they were isolated in nature and the snowstorms didn’t represent a new normal. As NYC still hasn’t had a snowstorm as big all this time after. And Newark is yet to have another October snowstorm like that one again. So my guess is that this isn’t the beginning of a shift to much snowier winters in New Orleans. And the warmth records will continue to be more impressive vs the cold ones over time.

It will be interesting to see how this drought progresses over the spring. Since areas away from the sea breeze during the last drought which was weaker in 2022 had a near record number of 100° days in NJ. But that was a continuing La Niña pattern from 20-21 to 22-23. This spring is more uncertain with the ENSO as there is currently a toss up between a continuing La Niña or an attempt to shift back into El Niño. We don’t have any analogs for such a quick shift back to El Niño. So the ENSO progress and drought progress could very well shape the coming summer details. Plus we have the coldest SSTs in over a decade to our east so backdoors this spring could be particularly strong. Any lingering cool spots to our east could enhance sea breezes here in the summer. So a number of factors to consider for our summer pattern.

3rd highest 9 hour temperature rise in March at spots like SMQ. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=SMQ&v=tmpf&hours=9&month=mar&dir=warm&how=over&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

This has been one of the most impressive 6-8 hr temperature rises that we have seen in the early spring.

Low 70s even made it to the Catskills today. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=CKCN6&hours=72

New record low Arctic sea ice extent for February and a recent paper on increasing Atlantification in the Arctic. https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/february-made-me-shiver-not-arctic The average February 2025 Arctic sea ice extent was 13.75 million square kilometers (5.31 million square miles), the lowest February extent in the 47-year satellite record, 220,000 square kilometers (85,000 square miles) below the previous record low February set in 2018. Daily ice growth stalled twice during the month, which helped to contribute to low ice conditions and led to overall ice retreat in the Barents Sea. By the end of the month, extent was low nearly everywhere, the exception being the East Greenland Sea. Extent is far below average in the Labrador Sea and the Gulf of St. Lawrence. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adq7580 Changes associated with atlantification are extensive and fundamental for the state of the high-latitude climate system. The primary impact has been the rapidly diminishing sea ice in the Siberian Arctic over the past decade (Fig. 1, A and BOpens in image viewer). Here, we used mooring and satellite data to demonstrate the advancement of atlantification into the Siberian Arctic Ocean and its ramifications for the state of the upper ocean, sea ice, and air-sea interactions (Fig. 5Opens in image viewer). In particular, we show that the winter ventilation of the halocline in the eastern Eurasian Basin resulted in more than twofold rate in sea-ice loss caused by oceanic heat fluxes as compared to the 2010s. The transition of the Makarov Basin to conditions similar to those observed in the eastern Eurasian Basin 5 to 7 years ago is another critically important finding (this lag is depicted by in Fig. 5Opens in image viewer). The powerful ocean-heat/ice-albedo feedback mechanism is the primary cause of these changes (phase 2 of atlantification in Fig. 5Opens in image viewer). Deep ventilation and weak stratification increase upward AW heat fluxes, which promotes the wintertime suppression of sea-ice formation and subsequent more effective summertime reduction of sea ice by an ice-albedo feedback. This complex process was the key to establishing the diminished sea-ice cover in the Siberian Arctic in recent years. In contrast, no deep ventilation of AW heat was found in the eastern parts of the Makarov Basin and East Siberian Sea. Shoaling of the AW and halocline, however, indicates that the eastern Siberian Arctic Ocean is experiencing a preconditioning phase (phase 1 of atlantification in Fig. 5Opens in image viewer) similar to that found in the western Siberian Arctic Ocean in the 2000s. This ongoing transition not only mirrors earlier changes but also sets the stage for broader ecosystem impacts. While it was identified that the intrusion of Atlantic-origin water into the Chukchi Plateau is associated with biogeochemical impacts (33), our analysis reveals that these physical changes—particularly AW shoaling, halocline weakening, and seasonal variability in the Atlantic/Pacific halocline front—are establishing conditions for halocline stability disruptions and increased AW penetration. These atlantification-related physical changes have important ecological implications.

The highs have been winning out at SMQ as they are +6.3 for the maximum temperature departure this month and -0.9 on the minimums.

It was our driest winter since 21-22 across the area.

This was the first time NYC had 22 days with 1” of snow cover and under 20” of snow on the season. 2024-2025…..22 days…..12.9” 1984-1985……22 days…..24.1” 1965-1966……22 days…..21.4” 1959-1960……22 days….39.2” 1921-1922…….22 days….27.8” 1911-1912……..22 days….29.5”

LGA officially set the record for longest stretch without a daily 4” snowfall event this winter. Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 for New York-LGA Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1940-01-01 to 2025-03-09 1 1135 2022-01-30 through 2025-03-09 2 1051 1961-02-05 through 1963-12-22 3 761 2018-11-16 through 2020-12-15 4 746 1950-02-14 through 1952-02-29 5 744 1979-02-20 through 1981-03-04 6 743 1996-03-09 through 1998-03-21 7 742 2011-01-28 through 2013-02-07 8 715 1972-02-24 through 1974-02-07 9 701 1975-02-13 through 1977-01-13 10 690 1941-03-09 through 1943-01-27

We were warmer than forecasts this winter even when we had the +PNA -EPO since the cold air extent was at record lows for the Northern Hemisphere.

It made it to 69° at Newark and a few other sites in NJ which is well above what guidance was printing out. So it’s close enough even if there will be more opportunities over the next week. Well above that 60° max that the EPS mean was running with recently.

The cold bias with the models in recent years has been ridiculous. They just can’t handle this new climate. It doesn’t make any sense to bet against warm ups beating model forecasts.

Hard to believe that there people doubting the 70° potential this week.

I knew it was going to be another underperforming snowfall season back in December when I saw that the jet and storm track pattern picking up where the last several seasons left off. The lower La Niña December snowfall which has done so well at prediction the outcomes last 30 years worked very well again. Since La Ninas are usually more frontloaded by nature and don’t require us waiting longer like El Niños which are more backloaded.

I never said anything about rules moving forward since my philosophy is always to take one winter at a time. Unfortunately, we don’t have multiyear storm track forecasts. But we can know with certainty what has happened up to this point.

I was able to create some custom charts to illustrate exactly how Philly to Boston had such low snowfall despite what used to be considered favorable teleconnections for snow before the 2020s. As I have shown in past posts, the Northern stream Pacific Jet has been a record levels since 18-19. But past instances with such a strong +PNA -EPO and -5 daily -AO had a relaxation of this jet. But not this time. You can see on the 11 days with .25 or greater precipitation around NYC how overpowering the Pacific Jet was. So the average temperature on these days was 41° which was too warm for heavy snow. Even though the average winter temperature was 34.8°. We again see the Southeast Ridge linking up with the Greenland -AO block on the storm days. So we are finding out that low seasonal snowfall totals can be the result of warmer storm tracks even in a seasonable average cold. 11 day winter storm composites for all the days with .25 or more of precipitation

Do you have something against spring? Statistically we eventually have a better chance of reaching 70° in March for the warm spots than the magic snowstorm that was always over a week away all winter. But this time of year we usually have to deal with backdoors so the timing can be off by a few days. Plus it takes until later into spring eastern sections due to the onshore flow and ocean still being so cold. This year could actually take longer than recent years especially east due to how cold the ocean has become to our east with the strong winds over the winter. The Gulf Of Maine is the coldest it has been since 2015 and 2019. It’s also possible the cooler SSTs could limit moisture a bit leading to rainfall underperforming model forecasts. So while the drought will continue, at least we will have a nice stretch of spring weather. With the big rainstorm always being more than a week out like the winter snowstorms were.

Warm spots in NJ could make a run on 70° Tuesday. Then the next chance of 70° by Saturday. But onshore flow to east should cap highs into the 60s.

The front has been getting slowed down from earlier runs due to the much stronger Southeast Ridge next weekend. Maybe we can sneak in a drier weekend. With the front holding off until Sunday Night or Monday. But hopefully it still retains enough moisture after the low cuts off further west. New run Old run

You can see how strong the Southeast Ridge was on the 11 days this winter with over .25 of precipitation in NYC .The average temperature on those days was 41°. So with such a warm storm track the area was lucky to break 10” on the season. We also saw the -AO linking up with the Southeast Ridge which has been a common theme in the 2020s. Also notice how impressive the Pacific Jet was on those 11 days with the biggest winter storms. 11 day winter storm composite with .25 and more of precipitation in NYC

The winds have been much stronger than average this year and the pattern has been pretty dry since last summer. So these low humidity windy days that we typically get this time of year have dried things out even more than usual. That area missed out in the heaviest rains the other day. Shirley only has 5.03” of precip on the year so far which is 5th driest since they started keeping records in 2000. Time Series Summary for SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2017-03-08 3.76 0 2 2009-03-08 4.59 0 3 2012-03-08 4.64 1 4 2002-03-08 4.80 0 5 2025-03-08 5.03

One in Brooklyn also. Hopefully, we can start getting a wetter pattern before the summer. As this drought and stronger winds isn’t a good combination.

Most impressive westerly flow from January into March of the decade so far.