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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    We appear to be early phases of El Niño intensification coinciding with passing the 400 ppm mark. But at least we don’t have the giant Pangea landmass configuration anymore. So while past warmer climates experienced stronger El Niños, this current configuration with the Pacific as it is today probably wouldn’t support something as extreme in the future. https://www.science.org/content/article/strong-el-niños-primed-earth-mass-extinction Geological evidence suggests that before the eruptions, atmospheric CO2 levels were likely about 400 parts per million (ppm), similar to the present day. As they began to tick up, the model showed profound El Niño events began to occur, says Alexander Farnsworth, a study co-author and paleoclimate modeler at the University of Bristol. Warm western waters at the equator spread east, preventing deep, cold waters from reaching the surface. Chaotic weather would have been unleashed worldwide, as happens during today’s El Niños. As CO2 levels rose to 800 ppm and beyond, the El Niños grew more fearsome than any in history, lasting up to 7 years. “You’re seeing this incredible heat buildup, which just persists,” Farnsworth says. https://eos.org/articles/mega-el-nino-may-have-led-to-major-mass-extinction-252-million-years-ago The good news is that the configuration of our continents means that even if the ENSO cycle changes wildly, we won’t experience conditions nearly as brutal as those at the end of the Permian. “The modern ocean is a much better buffer than before,” said Sun. “We have much more complex ecosystems.”
  2. bluewave
    Matching all the summers since 2012 the extent falls significantly behind 2012 during the 1st week of August. Much lower pressures this summer than even the 2013-2025 lower means resulted in the Jaxa extent falling into 12th place behind 2012. Plus we didn’t get the early season preconditioning. But since most of the older MYI has melted over the years, the volume is still very low.
  3. bluewave
    23 out of the last 26 months in NJ takes time to resolve. https://www.northjersey.com/story/weather/2026/07/30/nj-drought-warning-remains-after-severe-july-storms-heres-why/91091896007/?gnt-cfr=1&gca-cat=p&gca-uir=false&gca-epti=z115227p116850n00----l003450c00----e1117xxv115227&gca-ft=71&gca-ds=sophi
  4. bluewave
    Northern areas closer to the heaviest rains around SW CT like BDR this summer have moved out of drought conditions. But the drought continues further south. Though there was also some slow improvement in NJ also. THE BRIDGEPORT CT CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR AUGUST 5 2026... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1948 TO 2026 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 82 202 PM 97 2005 83 -1 83 MINIMUM 64 458 AM 55 1951 68 -4 68 AVERAGE 73 76 -3 76 PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 1.56 2017 0.14 -0.14 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 0.99 0.67 0.32 0.08 SINCE JUN 1 15.84 7.76 8.08 2.34 SINCE JAN 1 30.11 25.89 4.22 16.94
  5. bluewave
    The Florida dew points have arrived with values around 80° in SNJ.
  6. bluewave
    We had a massive OHC build up prior to 2023-2024. But the WWBs were mostly focused near South America. They were much weaker where they are currently record breaking now. The one change this time was the record WWB and general pattern at the start of the process last November into December associated with tropical cyclone Senyar was really extreme.
  7. bluewave
    We have to wonder what specifically has changed this time around more similar to 1997-1998 allowing such record breaking WWBs? This was the missing feature during the 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 super El Niño events. Record WWBs are a key ingredient for more east based El Niños which have been missing since 1997-1998. Just add the accumulated heat in the WPAC to the mix and we get an historic event like this one.
  8. bluewave
    It does look like this El Niño is starting to blend into the pattern. But the trough which is generally located to the ENE of Japan is displaced further south due the ridge and record warm pool that has become a regular feature there. So at least a few areas will match the composite next week especially around Alaska and Western Canada which is better than what we have seen so far.
  9. bluewave
    2020 was a really wild swing for the Arctic. We had the very strong polar vortex during the winter and a late season snow in early May. Then the warmest Arctic summer since 2012 with the Arctic sea ice almost as low. December had a 40” snowstorm in BGM followed by a record rainstorm and warm up on Christmas.
  10. bluewave
    The pressures in general across the Arctic have been lower during the summers since 2013 with more ridging in the midlatitudes. There has been quite a bit of volatility in regard to the winter higher latitude blocking since the 13-14 winter. It’s been tough to hold a similar winter pattern across the Arctic for more than two winters in a row since 09-10. We actually have had the greatest degree of volatility from month to month and year to year since then.
  11. bluewave
    2024 and 2025 didn’t have the deep trough north of Alaska like this June and July. It was displaced closer to Greenland and not as strong. Could be a result of the rebound following the stratospheric warming event last November.
  12. bluewave
    That post was about the 1997-1998 winter which followed 1961-1990 climatology. This winter will be using 1991-2020 normals. Rankings will be based on the 1895 to 2027 full period of record.
  13. bluewave
    I am not that surprised since these seasonal forecast models can’t do much better than general climatology or correlations. Never saw a seasonal model forecast an extreme pattern before it actually happened except for 2013-2014. So I don’t expect the actual details to begin to emerge much before the model runs near the beginning of December. All we know for sure at this point is that this will be the strongest El Niño on record. All previous super events shared the one common aspect of warm winters. But there is always room for variability with each new event in some regard to past ones such as ridge and trough locations.
  14. bluewave
    The variability could also be filtered through the tendency for stronger subtropical to mid-latitude ridging and weaker troughs than we had in 1997-1998.
  15. bluewave
    Unfortunately, the dew points have been going up over the years here. Much more like what the Delmarva used to get 20-30 years ago and earlier. I was mostly commenting on the better rainfall this summer up here. Last summer was the 5th driest on record in my new area. So everything was brown. Much greener looking this summer. Are you still near the Poconos? Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jun through Aug Top 10 Driest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2000 3.02 65 2 1966 4.15 0 3 2022 4.29 0 4 2017 4.76 3 5 2025 4.99 5 6 1957 5.26 0 7 2016 5.28 0 8 1949 5.83 0 9 1965 5.93 0 10 2014 6.23 2
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