bluewave

The Euro update from a few minutes ago now has the strongest traditional ONI on record near +3.8 to +3.9. June set new all-time SST records for developing El Niños in all Nino regions except 1+2. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii All-Time June SST records in bold YR MON NINO1+2 ANOM NINO3 ANOM NINO4 ANOM NINO3.4 ANOM 2026 6 25.94 2.82 28.33 1.71 30.19 1.22 29.17 1.44 2023 6 25.63 2.50 27.88 1.26 29.55 0.58 28.57 0.84 2015 6 25.32 2.19 28.07 1.45 29.88 0.92 28.90 1.18 1997 6 26.12 3.00 28.13 1.51 29.23 0.26 28.82 1.09

The Euro ensemble spread narrowed at a little higher mean on the new July run to what looks like an around +3.8 to +3.9 on traditional ONI ensemble mean peak. July run June run

This is just like the old times when we get a deluge following record heat. The current heavy rain flash flood potential looks like it could be the most significant event here since the last ones in August 2024 and July 2023. Widespread 2-4” and localized pockets over 5”+ where the best training set up. This is also the most juiced that we have seen the SPC HREF since then. This will be the first chance NYC and some other spots see a wetter than average month since way back in May 2025. The heat over the next 10 days will shift to the West with the potential for over a 600 dm ridge. In the past when we have had 103°+ major heatwaves and heavy rains, the maximum temperatures remained the highest of the summer. So hopefully this will turn out to be the highest temperatures which reached 105°-106°of the entire summer. While this doesn’t rule out more 95° to around 100° heat, the patterns in the past haven’t been able to follow up with as much heat in the following extreme heat to very wet.

Things worked out really well here. They set off all the fireworks just before the heavy thunderstorms arrived. Picked up my heaviest downpour of the summer so far with 0.56 in a short time and wind gusts to 45mph. A great show plus some much needed rainfall.

More severe wind gust potential with the storms later as the nadocast did very well yesterday. data.nadocast.com/viewer.html Forecast for yesterday with the verification Forecast for later today into tonight

June set new all-time SST records for developing El Niños in all Nino regions except 1+2. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii All-Time June SST records in bold YR MON NINO1+2 ANOM NINO3 ANOM NINO4 ANOM NINO3.4 ANOM 2026 6 25.94 2.82 28.33 1.71 30.19 1.22 29.17 1.44 2023 6 25.63 2.50 27.88 1.26 29.55 0.58 28.57 0.84 2015 6 25.32 2.19 28.07 1.45 29.88 0.92 28.90 1.18 1997 6 26.12 3.00 28.13 1.51 29.23 0.26 28.82 1.09

This is actually the heaviest rainfall signal that we have seen from the models in quite some time.

Great video of the severe storms moving in yesterday from a boat in New York Harbor.

This time stations like Newark and Harrison had to reach 105°-106° for NYC to finally reach 100°. LGA also made it to 104°. This suggests that NYC would have probably been at least 104° if the ASOS hadn’t become overgrown by the trees since the 1990s. This matches the past times our area experienced 103°+ heat before the tree growth near the castle became an issue. Monthly Data for July 2026 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ HARRISON COOP 106 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 103 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 102 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 102 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 102 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 101 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 101 NY CENTERPORT COOP 101 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 101 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 100

We have been experiencing record heat here in the East at times going back to March related to the record breaking subtropical tropical ridges from 30N to 45N. Most times very strong to super El Niños feature more troughs and low pressure at these latitudes during this time of year. The ridges are usually further north on the continent in Canada. This has lead to the mid-latitude Atlantic SSTs joining the very warm mid-latitude Pacific SSTs. This is probably related to the ongoing expansion of the subtropical ridges over the years. Plus we have very extensive drought in the CONUS at this time. Also when forcing shifts back to the IO and MC we tend to see the peak warmth and ridging in the East. The reason the -PDO and +AMO pattern has been so persistent in recent years is due to these strong ridges leading to lighter winds and more sunshine warming the ocean surface below.

This is the first time that a number of stations in the East approached their all-time warmest temperature with a developing super El Niño. Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2026-07-02 1 104.0 1933-08-01 through 1933-08-01 2 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 - 103.0 1995-07-16 through 1995-07-16 - 103.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 103.0 1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10 3 102.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 - 102.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 102.0 1991-07-20 through 1991-07-20 - 102.0 1991-07-19 through 1991-07-19 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for New York-LGA Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1939-10-07 to 2026-07-02 1 107.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 2 104.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 104.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 - 104.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 3 103.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 103.0 1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15 - 103.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26 4 102.0 2006-08-02 through 2006-08-02 - 102.0 1953-09-02 through 1953-09-02 5 101.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1873-12-04 to 2026-07-02 1 106.0 1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07 2 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 104.0 1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10 3 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 - 103.0 2010-07-07 through 2010-07-07 - 103.0 1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15 - 103.0 1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04 - 103.0 1936-07-09 through 1936-07-09 - 103.0 1930-07-21 through 1930-07-21 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1888-01-01 to 2026-07-02 1 106.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 2 105.0 1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07 3 104.0 1918-08-06 through 1918-08-06 4 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2012-07-07 through 2012-07-07 - 103.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 103.0 1898-07-03 through 1898-07-03 5 102.0 2011-07-21 through 2011-07-21 - 102.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 102.0 1988-07-17 through 1988-07-17

The 105° at Newark was the 2nd warmest temperature on record at the station. Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 108.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 2 105.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 105.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 - 105.0 1993-07-10 through 1993-07-10 - 105.0 1993-07-08 through 1993-07-08 - 105.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 - 105.0 1953-09-02 through 1953-09-02 - 105.0 1949-07-04 through 1949-07-04 - 105.0 1918-08-07 through 1918-08-07 3 104.0 2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18 - 104.0 1995-07-15 through 1995-07-15 - 104.0 1993-07-09 through 1993-07-09 - 104.0 1936-07-09 through 1936-07-09 4 103.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 103.0 2021-06-30 through 2021-06-30 - 103.0 2011-07-21 through 2011-07-21 - 103.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 103.0 1999-07-05 through 1999-07-05 - 103.0 1993-07-07 through 1993-07-07 - 103.0 1954-07-31 through 1954-07-31 - 103.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26 - 103.0 1936-07-10 through 1936-07-10 - 103.0 1911-07-03 through 1911-07-03 - 103.0 1901-07-02 through 1901-07-02

Yeah, we have only really had 6 years reaching 103°+ by July 4th. So the sample size is pretty small. But at least none of the previous years made it above 102° the rest of the summer. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Highest Temperatures June 1st through July 4th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1966-07-04 105 0 - 1949-07-04 105 0 2025-07-04 103 0 - 2021-07-04 103 0 - 1911-07-04 103 0 - 1901-07-04 103 0 Maximum temperature after July 4th 1966….100° 1949….102° 2025…101° 2021….99° 1911…..102° 1901…..95°

One of the few times that a forecast for stalled out backdoor cold front with a wave of low pressure by next Monday is a welcome sight.

I was walking along the shore one day back in Long Beach and one of them flew very low right over the beach at Pacific BLVD. They come up on your position silently and you only hear the engine roar once they are past. It was a pretty wild experience even compared to all the beach parties back in those days.