bluewave

Looks like NYC will finish the season at 43.4”, LGA at 45.6”, and JFK 45.4”.

It’s like someone flipped a switch after March 2019. March Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.5 0.5 2026 0.2 0.2 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 0.0 0.0 2023 1.6 1.6 2022 1.6 1.6 2021 T T 2020 T T March Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 8.2 8.2 2019 4.1 4.1 2018 31.9 31.9 2017 7.4 7.4 2016 3.2 3.2 2015 19.7 19.7 2014 5.4 5.4 2013 7.4 7.4 2012 T T 2011 2.1 2.1 2010 0.4 0.4 March Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 5.4 5.4 2009 13.6 13.6 2008 T T 2007 3.8 3.8 2006 3.2 3.2 2005 13.3 13.3 2004 5.7 5.7 2003 3.7 3.7 2002 T T 2001 10.3 10.3 2000 0.2 0.2 March Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 5.8 5.8 1999 9.1 9.1 1998 1.6 1.6 1997 3.7 3.7 1996 12.0 12.0 1995 T T 1994 5.0 5.0 1993 13.3 13.3 1992 7.6 7.6 1991 1.9 1.9 1990 4.2 4.2 March Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 3.0 3.0 1989 3.0 3.0 1988 3.4 3.4 1987 1.7 1.7 1986 0.1 0.1 1985 T T 1984 13.0 13.0 1983 T T 1982 T T 1981 7.1 7.1 1980 2.0 2.0 March Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 3.1 3.1 1979 T T 1978 10.4 10.4 1977 4.0 4.0 1976 3.9 3.9 1975 1.2 1.2 1974 8.0 8.0 1973 T T 1972 1.0 1.0 1971 1.0 1.0 1970 1.0 1.0 March Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.9 6.9 1969 11.0 11.0 1968 3.0 3.0 1967 21.7 21.7 1966 0.0 0.0 1965 4.5 4.5 1964 1.0 1.0 1963 M M 1962 M M 1961 M M 1960 M M

Have only had three 60°+ days here while it’s been like a different season in NJ. Climatological Data for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - March 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-03-01 41 26 33.5 -1.2 31 0 T 2026-03-02 27 15 21.0 -13.9 44 0 0.00 2026-03-03 34 15 24.5 -10.6 40 0 0.41 2026-03-04 48 28 38.0 2.6 27 0 0.10 2026-03-05 40 28 34.0 -1.6 31 0 0.75 2026-03-06 39 35 37.0 1.2 28 0 0.31 2026-03-07 41 34 37.5 1.4 27 0 0.09 2026-03-08 55 35 45.0 8.7 20 0 T 2026-03-09 64 30 47.0 10.4 18 0 0.00 2026-03-10 63 31 47.0 10.2 18 0 0.00 2026-03-11 60 41 50.5 13.4 14 0 0.30 2026-03-12 53 32 42.5 5.2 22 0 0.22 2026-03-13 39 31 35.0 -2.6 30 0 0.00 2026-03-14 47 30 38.5 0.7 26 0 0.00 2026-03-15 42 29 35.5 -2.6 29 0 0.00 2026-03-16 55 40 47.5 9.1 17 0 1.68 2026-03-17 53 31 42.0 3.3 23 0 0.01 2026-03-18 35 26 30.5 -8.4 34 0 0.00 2026-03-19 38 28 33.0 -6.2 32 0 0.00 2026-03-20 49 27 38.0 -1.5 27 0 0.08 2026-03-21 53 41 47.0 7.2 18 0 0.00 2026-03-22 48 40 44.0 3.9 21 0 0.17 Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - March 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-03-01 44 29 36.5 -1.8 28 0 T T 1 2026-03-02 34 21 27.5 -11.0 37 0 0.00 0.0 1 2026-03-03 38 30 34.0 -4.8 31 0 0.42 T T 2026-03-04 47 37 42.0 2.9 23 0 T 0.0 0 2026-03-05 44 39 41.5 2.2 23 0 1.62 0.0 0 2026-03-06 43 37 40.0 0.4 25 0 0.16 0.0 0 2026-03-07 50 37 43.5 3.7 21 0 T 0.0 0 2026-03-08 73 48 60.5 20.4 4 0 T 0.0 0 2026-03-09 73 44 58.5 18.1 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-03-10 82 46 64.0 23.3 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-03-11 82 53 67.5 26.6 0 3 0.35 0.0 0 2026-03-12 64 35 49.5 8.3 15 0 0.07 T 0 2026-03-13 45 30 37.5 -4.0 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-03-14 53 34 43.5 1.7 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-03-15 46 36 41.0 -1.1 24 0 T 0.0 0 2026-03-16 67 45 56.0 13.6 9 0 0.60 0.0 0 2026-03-17 47 31 39.0 -3.7 26 0 T 0.0 0 2026-03-18 37 25 31.0 -12.0 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-03-19 44 32 38.0 -5.3 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-03-20 66 35 50.5 6.9 14 0 0.07 0.0 0 2026-03-21 60 48 54.0 10.1 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-03-22 64 44 54.0 9.7 11 0 0.08 0.0 0

Yeah, the CT Shoreline has been on the cooler side of the backdoor for much of this month. EWR…+4.7° NYC….+3.8° BDR….+0.8°

The AIFS has 70° potential also in NJ on Thursday and takes middle ground between the Euro and GFS. But the warmth struggled to get much further north yesterday. So it’s possible that NYC and points north and east doesn’t get as warm as the 0z OP Euro. I will gladly take a AIFS compromise and get warmer than the GFS but not as warm here on the CT Shore as the OP Euro.

Looks like the warm front will come north again this Thursday for the next 70° potential at the usual spots. Would be nice if the warm sector can push further north than yesterday. Had the marine layer all day yesterday here on the CT Shoreline while NJ mad it to 70°+. Then another a cooldown for a few days as Canada and the Northeast briefly gets colder. It’s possible that some of the local warm spots could make a run on 75°-80° during the first week of April as the Southeast ridge flexes and trough tries to dig into the West.

Evolution of winters around 32° and colder in NYC since the 1970s showing the expansion of warmth to our west.

Flagstaff has seen one of the more impressive monthly maximum high temperature beats for the CONUS. They exceeded the previous March record high by 11°. If Newark had a similar March record high, then it would be 100°. I don’t think this extreme of a record would be possible here since we can’t rival the kind of heat generated with drought in the Desert SW. My guess is that our max potential here in March would probably be around 93°-94° in some future March heatwave when the primary ridge is centered in the East instead of the Desert SW. Time Series Summary for Flagstaff Area, AZ (ThreadEx) - Month of Mar Maximum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026 84 11 2 2007 73 0 - 1988 73 0 - 1966 73 0 3 2025 72 0 - 2015 72 0 - 2004 72 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar Maximum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1945 89 0 2 1998 86 0 - 1990 86 0 3 2025 85 0 4 2021 84 0 - 1985 84 0 - 1977 84 0 - 1921 84 0 - 1910 84 0

Looks like a 70° warm up on Sunday for the usual NJ warm spots away from the ocean influence followed by the typical backdoor influence that we usually see this time of year heading into early April.

Reversion to the March 2020s snowfall mean following all the great 2010s Marches. March Monthly 2020s Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2026 T T 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T March 2010s Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.0 6.0 2019 10.4 10.4 2018 11.6 11.6 2017 9.7 9.7 2016 0.9 0.9 2015 18.6 18.6 2014 0.1 0.1 2013 7.3 7.3 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 1.0 1.0 2010 T T

Yeah, the record ridge covering the West into Central states completely overpowered the pattern with warm and dry for much of the country. So we have moved past the usual old school La Niña correlations. This is now the age of the super 500 mb ridge that is going to cancel your winter in the locations where it gets stuck stuck in place. Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow A remarkable 42% of the Contiguous U.S. had record Dec-Feb 500 mb heights. 10:41 PM · Mar 8, 2026

The lake effect zones usually do pretty well unless there is a strong El Niño.

Yeah, back to our regularly scheduled programming following a rare 4 month hiatus.

One of the few spots that did well during 2001-2002. Top 10 Snowfall Time Series Summary for Marquette County Area, MI (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2001-2002 319.8 0 2 1996-1997 272.2 0 3 2000-2001 268.0 0 4 2022-2023 265.1 0 5 2025-2026 262.7 198 6 2008-2009 246.0 0 7 1995-1996 235.9 1 8 1989-1990 234.9 0 9 1981-1982 233.8 1 10 2006-2007 230.5 0