bluewave

Yeah, the tree growth over the equipment since the 90s when the trees are leafed out from the spring into late fall has been creating an artificial high temperature cooling there. I can remember when the station was out in the open and often had warmer highs than LGA and sometimes Newark. More record highs today around the area. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 252 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 98 DEGREES FRIDAY, JUNE 12 AT LAGUARDIA AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 96 DEGREES, SET IN 2017. RECORDS FOR THE LAGUARDIA NY AREA GO BACK TO 1939. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 252 AM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE, HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 94 DEGREES FRIDAY, JUNE 12 AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 91 DEGREES, SET IN 2017. THE LOW TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 72 DEGREES FRIDAY, JUNE 12 AT ISLIP MACARTHUR AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH MINIMUM OF 70 DEGREES, SET IN 1973. RECORDS FOR THE ISLIP NY AREA GO BACK TO 1963. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 530 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE BROKEN IN PHILADELPHIA PA... A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 98 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT THE PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN PHILADELPHIA PA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY OF 95 DEGREES PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1947 AND 2015. RECORDS FOR THE PHILADELPHIA PA AREA DATE BACK TO 1872. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 438 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 95 DEGREES TODAY AT JOHN F. KENNEDY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 92 DEGREES, SET IN 2017. RECORDS FOR THE KENNEDY NY AREA GO BACK TO 1948. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE BROKEN AT ATLANTIC CITY AIRPORT NJ... A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT THE ATLANTIC CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT NEAR ATLANTIC CITY NJ TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY OF 94 DEGREES PREVIOUSLY SET IN 2017. RECORDS FOR THE ATLANTIC CITY AIRPORT NJ AREA DATE BACK TO 1943. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 528 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED IN TRENTON NJ... A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT THE TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT NEAR TRENTON NJ TODAY. THIS TIES THE RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1933. Data for June 12, 2026 through June 12, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 98 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 97 NJ HARRISON COOP 97 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 95 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 95 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 94 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 93 NY CENTERPORT COOP 93 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 93 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 93 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 93 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 93 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 93 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 92 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 92 NY SYOSSET COOP 92 NY ST. JAMES COOP 92 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 92 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 91 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 91 CT GUILFORD COOP 91 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 91 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 90 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 90 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 90 Data for June 11, 2026 through June 11, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 97 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 97 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 96 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 94 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 93 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 93 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 93 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 93 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 92 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 92 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 92 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 92 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 91

Yeah, the La Ninas have been getting weaker following super El Niños since the early 1970s. This past La Niña was the weakest on record following the 2023-2024 super El Niño. Also the first time that Nino 1+2 didn’t fully cool off between super El Niño events. This lead to the more Nino-like December 2024 with the record +PNA. While the STJ and Nino 1+2 warming were relatively weak vs the Northern Stream, the Gulf Coast got an historic snowstorm in January 2025. Super El Niño ONI and the lowest ONI in the years following NDJ 72…..+2.1 NDJ 73……-2.0 NDJ 82…….+2.2 NDJ 84…….-1.1 NDJ 97…..+2.4 NDJ 99…..-1.7 NDJ 15……+2.8 NDJ 17…..-0.9 NDJ 23…..+2.1 NDJ 25…..-0.5

Multiple record highs on Thursday with a drought upgrade across the area. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 236 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 97 DEGREES THURSDAY, JUNE 11 AT NEWARK LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 96 DEGREES, LAST SET IN 2000. RECORDS FOR THE NEWARK NJ AREA GO BACK TO 1931. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 234 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 96 DEGREES THURSDAY, JUNE 11 AT LAGUARDIA AIRPORT. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 96 DEGREES, SET IN 1984. RECORDS FOR THE LAGUARDIA NY AREA GO BACK TO 1939. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 231 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 95 DEGREES THURSDAY, JUNE 11 AT JOHN F. KENNEDY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 93 DEGREES, SET IN 1984. RECORDS FOR THE KENNEDY NY AREA GO BACK TO 1948. In New Jersey, severe drought expanded across much of the northern portion of the state and into New York and eastern Pennsylvania. Abnormally dry conditions expanded across southeastern New York, while moderate drought expanded in southern Connecticut and western Massachusetts. Severe drought also expanded across eastern Massachusetts, eastern Rhode Island, and portions of eastern Maryland. Extreme drought was introduced in southern New Jersey and expanded into Delaware and eastern Maryland. A combination of short- and long-term drought is affecting agriculture as well as groundwater and surface water resources throughout the region.

It appears that the -PDO through the warm pool east of Japan and active MJO 4-7 caused the Aleutian low to split into two weaker low pressure centers. Probably why the -1.5 RONI was so far behind the ONI. But for the Great Lakes into Northeast the El Nino ridge was even stronger than would be expected with a +2.1 ONI. Could also be the general expansion of mid-latitude ridges leading to the lack of a strong trough response in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

Even though the RONI in the 2023-2024 super El Niño lagged the ONI by 0.6, the May 2023 response at 500mb was actually stronger than both 2015 and 2026. My guess is could be related to the early development of 2023 especially in the Nino 1+2 regions. So this is probably why the 500 mb ridge in Canada and warmth going into the winter of 2023-2024 was better aligned with the ONI at 2.1 rather than the RONI at 1.5.

The 850 mb temperatures today near +20C and downslope westerly flow will support 97-99° at the warm spots with enough sun. Seeing some clouds in forecast today. But more sun could support a few local warm spots making a run at 100°.

Yeah, the big story is that these extreme ridges are making seasonal forecasting very challenging. There have been at least 17instances of +10 or greater temperature months from December to March since December 2015. This is against the warmest 1991-2020 means which is even more impressive. In the old days these would happen much less frequently like in March 2012 and January 2006. When viewing the seasonal guidance in the fall there wasn’t any indication that these extreme months were in the forecast. I can remember looking at the EPS weeklies mid to late November 2015 and just seeing the stock El Niño forecasts of warm along the Northern Tier and cooler to the south. No indication at all of the historic +13.3 was incoming for places like NYC. A big part of that was the MJO 5 interacting with the super El Niño to produce the extreme December ridge in the East which wasn’t forecast. The other examples below really weren’t forecast well too far in advance. Some had extreme MJO event and others just stuck weather patterns like this past winter into spring. DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3 MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5 JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0 FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3 FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6 FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5 JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8 DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2 JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3 FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8 DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8 FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5 DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3 DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1 JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2 FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3 MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5

Yeah, there is an overlap going on so the line where one starts and the other ends may not be that clear. All the mid-latitude ridges between 30N and 60N have been getting stronger regardless of El Niño or La Niña. So perhaps that’s why the Aleutian low and mid-Atlantic and Southeast lows during recent super El Niño events have been getting weaker than in the past. Plus the weekly to seasonal guidance has been missing this ridge expansion in their long range forecasts. So we keep getting all these near to 10°+departure warm months close to the core of the ridges that aren’t being forecast beyond 15 days.

I agree with most of what you just said. But I have a partial disagreement with you on what constitutes a sensible mid latitude response. The response has two components. The first is the strength of the 500mb ridge across Canada and the Northern Tier of the CONUS. During the 2023-2024 super El Niño this ridge was more expansive than the 1997-1998 super El Niño pressing further south toward the mid-Atlantic and enhancing the warmth. So this wasn’t reflected in the RONI only peaking at 1.5. But the RONI was more representative of the weaker Aleutian low and Mid-Atlantic to Southeast low. We can also see the RONI inconsistency with the 2015-2016 super El Niño in another way. While it was better matched with the ONI than 2023-2024, the Aleutian low was still much weaker than 1997-1998. Plus the rainfall response was much less in places like CA along with more of a ridge in the Eastern CONUS than past super El Niños.

It’s a bit like relying on temperature departures rather than absolute rankings in a warming climate. But the global temperatures will respond to the absolute Nino 3.4 SSTs rather than the departures which update to reflect the warming baseline each decade. The value of RONI is probably more for La Ninas where the WPAC warm pool has been defining La Nina’s more than the Nino region cold pool of the past. But the absolute strength of La Niña measured through Nino 3.4 SSTs has been shrinking since we haven’t had a strong La Niña by actual SSTs since 2010-2011.

Hopefully, the clouds and convection can prevent another run on 100° so soon after the one in May. The only model with upper 90s in our area is the Euro. But it has less clouds and convection than the other models. It could be correct if the convection underperforms with the ongoing drought. The model forecasts highlight the big temperature divide as early as Thursday.

Ultimately El Niños are ranked by their jump in global temperatures. 2023-2024 had a larger rise in global temperatures than previous super El Niño events. So relying on the RONI metric is inadequate to describe these much stronger events. Even the authors of the paper which RONI is based on said the scale may need to be reevaluated in the future. So I view it as an experimental index which should be used alongside the traditional ONI scale. It can be used for assessing features like El Niño rainfall and the strength of the Aleutian Low. But ONI was closer to reality on temperatures during 2023-2024 than RONI. Plus the 500 mb ridge over North America was more in line with ONI. 2023-2024 was the warmest winter on record for the CONUS which none of the models beyond 15 days forecast. The warmth across the Northern Tier even exceed some of the previous super El Niño events. Seasonal models don’t have the ability to see extremes. Extreme warmth has been greatly exceeding extreme cold. So the long range models miss extreme warmth much more often since extreme cold has become so rare. About the only thing I use the seasonal models for are the Nino plumes once we get past the spring predictability barrier in early June. But we knew something really big was coming months ago with the record WWBs and kelvin waves. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/4/JCLI-D-23-0406.1.xml As they previously cautioned, in the future, if there are significant divergences between the tropical mean state and trends in the Niño indices, then this index will need to be re-evaluated. We hope this work motivates additional studies and simulations of these indices in a changing climate.

Those seasonal model 2m temperatures typically run way too cool especially with super El Ninos like we saw in 2023-2024 and 2015-2016. This has been the case with all the seasonal models. Even the forecasts issued in November were still too cool NMME DJF 2023-2024 long range forecast issued August 2023 Verification DJF 2015-2016 long range forecast issued August 2015 Verification

More traditional June El Niño 500 mb pattern forecast for next week as this record El Niño continues to intensify.

Looks like some cooler and hopefully wetter weather is on the way for next week following more unusual warmth this week for a developing El Niño. A ridge out West and a trough near the Great Lakes is a closer match to El Niño June expectations. It’s forecast to occur right as this event is setting records for the warmest Nino 3.4 SST on record for early June.