bluewave

First, none of the seasonal models have had much skill for any of the winters over the last decade in terms of temperatures or 500 mb patterns. We are talking about the strongest El Niño on record so broad ENSO correlations which include weak and moderate El Niños will be outside climo for such strong events This was the case with both the 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 events when the seasonal models defaulted to correlations that were much too cold for what transpired. Both those winters verified significantly warmer than the seasonal forecasts. With La Ninas the seasonal models haven’t been any better. We had two of the weakest La Ninas events last few winters following a super El Niño. So the general La Niña correlations the models used as forecasts didn’t work out very well. The models were too cold with their 2025-2026 CONUS forecast since the magnitude of the Western warmth was significantly greater than the cold in the East. Just by looking at any of the seasonal models would not have given any indication of the 2nd warmest winter on record for the CONUS. But I was happy to be in my area which had the first cold and snowy winter since 2014-2015. 2024-2025 was such a weak La Niña that the Nino 1+2 warming in late November which triggered a more Nino-like December was the 2nd warmest across the CONUS. January 2025 was the coldest of 2020s so far in a sea of warm which the seasonal models didn’t forecast. The models also missed the deep trough in the West for 2022-2023 winter since they went with a general La Niña composite which was too cool for the very warm winter in the East. During the 2021 -2022 winter the models missed the record +13 December in DFW. They also missed the colder and snowier January pattern. Much of this has to do with the seasonal models inability for forecast the MJO which has been getting stuck in the warmer phases due to the expanding Indio-Pacific warm pool with enhanced MC forcing. 19-20 was a big miss of how strong the SPV became leading to another warmer winter. So it just may be that since record warmth is running so far ahead of any record cold, there are just more opportunities for the models underestimate the warmth and run too cold. Pointing out these obvious model errors is more a function of me trying to arrive at a better overall understanding of what to expect in our new climate. It’s in no way an endorsement of how rapidly our winters and other seasons have warmed. I grew up in the 1970s so I can remember what really cold winters were like. My preferences are for any pattern which produces great snowstorms. I don’t mind if they occur in a milder winter. Since I am more about snowstorm quality than how long it says on the ground following the storm. Just cold enough to snow with a benchmark KU storm track is all I need to have an enjoyable winter.

Yeah, the 100°+ heat has generally been occurring earlier in the summer since 2010 than in previous decades. Only 2 years since then recorded 100° heat between August 1st and 9th. No 100° heat from August 10th onward. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 06-09 (2011) 06-30 (2021) 0 Mean 07-01 07-21 19 Maximum 07-20 (2022) 08-09 (2022) 43 2025 06-23 (2025) 101 07-30 (2025) 100 36 2024 06-21 (2024) 100 08-01 (2024) 100 40 2023 - - - - - 2022 07-20 (2022) 100 08-09 (2022) 101 19 2021 06-29 (2021) 102 06-30 (2021) 103 0 2020 - - - - - 2019 - - - - - 2018 - - - - - 2017 - - - - - 2016 - - - - - 2015 - - - - - 2014 - - - - - 2013 07-18 (2013) 101 07-19 (2013) 100 0 2012 07-07 (2012) 102 07-18 (2012) 104 10 2011 06-09 (2011) 102 07-23 (2011) 102 43 2010 07-04 (2010) 101 07-07 (2010) 101 2 First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 06-15 (1994) 06-19 (1994) 0 Mean 07-11 07-25 13 Maximum 08-07 (2001) 09-03 (1993) 75 2009 - - - - - 2008 - - - - - 2007 - - - - - 2006 08-01 (2006) 100 08-03 (2006) 101 1 2005 07-27 (2005) 101 08-13 (2005) 102 16 2004 - - - - - 2003 - - - - - 2002 07-04 (2002) 100 08-13 (2002) 100 39 2001 08-07 (2001) 100 08-09 (2001) 105 1 2000 - - - - - 1999 07-05 (1999) 103 07-19 (1999) 100 13 1998 - - - - - 1997 07-15 (1997) 101 07-17 (1997) 100 1 1996 - - - - - 1995 07-15 (1995) 104 07-15 (1995) 104 0 1994 06-15 (1994) 101 06-19 (1994) 102 3 1993 06-19 (1993) 102 09-03 (1993) 100 75 1992 - - - - - 1991 07-20 (1991) 100 07-21 (1991) 102 0 1990 - - - - - 1989 - - - - - 1988 06-22 (1988) 101 07-17 (1988) 100 24 1987 - - - - - 1986 07-07 (1986) 100 07-07 (1986) 100 0 1985 - - - - - 1984 - - - - - 1983 - - - - - 1982 07-18 (1982) 100 07-18 (1982) 100 0 1981 - - - - - First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 06-21 (1953) 06-26 (1943) 0 Mean 07-14 07-27 12 Maximum 08-28 (1973) 09-02 (1953) 72 1980 07-20 (1980) 101 07-21 (1980) 101 0 1979 - - - - - 1978 - - - - - 1977 07-19 (1977) 100 07-21 (1977) 102 1 1976 - - - - - 1975 - - - - - 1974 - - - - - 1973 08-28 (1973) 100 08-28 (1973) 100 0 1972 - - - - - 1971 - - - - - 1970 - - - - - 1969 - - - - - 1968 - - - - - 1967 - - - - - 1966 06-27 (1966) 101 07-13 (1966) 100 15 1965 - - - - - 1964 - - - - - 1963 07-01 (1963) 100 07-01 (1963) 100 0 1962 - - - - - 1961 - - - - - 1960 - - - - - 1959 06-29 (1959) 100 06-29 (1959) 100 0 1958 - - - - - 1957 07-22 (1957) 101 07-22 (1957) 101 0 1956 - - - - - 1955 07-05 (1955) 101 08-02 (1955) 100 27 1954 07-14 (1954) 102 07-31 (1954) 103 16 1953 06-21 (1953) 100 09-02 (1953) 105 72 1952 06-26 (1952) 102 06-26 (1952) 102 0 1951 - - - - - 1950 - - - - - 1949 07-03 (1949) 100 08-11 (1949) 102 38 1948 08-26 (1948) 103 08-28 (1948) 102 1 1947 - - - - - 1946 - - - - - 1945 - - - - - 1944 08-04 (1944) 100 08-13 (1944) 100 8 1943 06-25 (1943) 100 06-26 (1943) 102 0 1942 - - - - - 1941 - - - - - 1940 - - - - -

The CFS showed a similar forecast for the 23-24 super El Niño and we saw how that turned out. The model may just be defaulting to general El Niño correlations. So not sure if we can say it’s an actual forecast. Correlation Verification

We need to see months of wetter condions to end the longer term drought. This is a nice start if we can build on it. So August will be important to see if this continues.

Another opportunity for a soaking rain event Tuesday into Wednesday. A PRE-like feature could develop from the tropical system in the Gulf. Generally cooler conditions the rest of the month with a trough in the East. Possibly more rainfall chances during this period. So multiple stations are on track for their wettest month in a while. Then we wait and see what pattern emerges after this as we head into August.

It temporarily removes warmth from around the equator in the ENSO regions. But the heat release following each super El Niño finds its way into the adjacent oceans and land areas. You can see how the oceanic and atmospheric heat increases following each El Niño back to 1997-1998. This is why the global baseline temperature sets a new record during each super El Niño. The temperatures pullback slightly in the following years but a well above the previous years which were neutral or La Niña. The 1997-1998 event below was followed by warming in the Arctic. The heat release from the ENSO regions in 2015-2016 founds its way into the 30N to 60N mid-latitude regions. This is the persistent -PDO that we have seen since around 2019. Also notice how the Nino 1+2 and other regions didn’t fully release all the heat following the 2023-2024 before recharging with more heat only 3 years apart. So this is a first in our modern climate era. That’s why when I saw the record WWBs in the spring it wasn’t a surprise when the ENSO forecasts started showing another super El Niño so soon. So the big to watch story going forward following this strongest event on record is what areas will see the greatest temp jumps in the late 2020s?

That’s due to the evolution of the climate models lagging behind the speed at which the climate is warming. So all these big shifts have been occurring without any prior notice. The first big global temperature jump in 1997-1998 lead to the loss of most of the older Arctic sea ice during the 2000’s. Summers began to significantly warm around 2010 at this new higher baseline level. North American winters dramatically warmed following the 2015-2016 super El Niño. The rapid warming of the Pacific east of Japan and to the north of Hawaii occurred at this new baseline. The next big jump was in 2023-2024 which is only three years ago. Two of the warmest winters on record for the CONUS occurred at this new higher temperature level. Now we are looking at another global temperature jump with this strongest El Niño on record only three years later which is a first. So my guess is that we see more shifts which weren’t anticipated following the jump in global temperatures with this even more extreme event.

Both the mid-latitude North and South Pacific ridges have dramatically expanded since the late 90s. The first expansion coincided with the first global higher baseline temperature jump following the 1997-1998 super El Niño. The 2nd and more dramatic expansion occurred following the 2015-2016 super El Niño. This is the pattern which is driving the record -PDO since 2018-2019 with the record surface and subsurface warm pool from Japan to north of Hawaii. Some of the climate models run back in 2013 were showing a similar pattern developing. But it was forecast to be a much slower process than what has occurred and be focused a little further north. So my guess is that the planet is much more sensitive to the effects of warming than the climate models forecasted. Plus the model which showed this ridge expansion also forecast to lower pressures over the Arctic the summer like we have seen since 2013. We were just discussing the very strong low north of Alaska during June. North Pacific 500 mb ridge expansion

Radar estimates close to 4 inches where the flash flooding occurred in Queens.

New all-time highest MSLP record set for Australia.

The main expansion mostly occurred following the 2015-2016 super El Niño with the big global temperature jump to a much higher baseline. It’s part of the reason that the ridges have been more impressive than the troughs as the planet warms regardless of the ENSO phase. The mid-latitude ridge growth has been driving the persistent -PDO/-AMO SST patterns. But there could be a feedback process at work between the ocean and atmosphere. We can notice the Aleutian low weakening since the 1980s with the super El Niños.

This was a great satellite loop from the other day that sums up what we have been experiencing this week.

Flash flood threat NYC metro with this warm frontal training first round of convection. Some hail also beginning to show up. Tropical PWATS with this. Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0766 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1128 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 181528Z - 182128Z Summary...A couple rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected into late this afternoon. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible, which could lead to flash flooding in urban areas. Discussion...A thermal boundary extends through portions of the Mid-Atlantic States. Near the boundary, showers and thunderstorms are showing some slight backbuilding character while moving northeast into New York City. Precipitable water values are 1.4-2". MU CAPE is 500-5000 J/kg across the region, with the maximum on the Eastern Shore. Effective bulk shear is ~40 kts. One bout of heavy rainfall in the very near term is expected across southeast NY and portions of CT, while later development is expected to the southwest which should ride up the boundary back into the Tri-State area. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible either from backbuilding, cell training, or mesocyclone formation. This would be most problematic in urban areas.

Impressive severe and flash flooding threat. The AMO has rapidly increased to near record levels. So a deep tropical moisture feed with strong shear.

We began to dry out shortly after the super El Nino in 2023-2024 during the fall. The warmer climate requires more water than 50 years ago due to increased evaporation rates. One of the areas that needs more research are these expanding 500mb ridges that get stuck in place for weeks to months. So we get regions with record drought under the ridges which are bounded by record flooding like we are currently seeing in Texas. The more erratic precipitation patterns are a real challenge for the agricultural and landscaping fields. Since long range precipitation forecasts beyond a week or two aren’t the greatest. Trying to figure out where your local area will end up between the wet and dry extremes isn’t the easiest to navigate.