bluewave

When you understand what the models strengths and weaknesses are in the long range, then you can start to make sense of what they are trying to say. So we start with what we know about the models and work from that starting point. A model strength of the ECMWF is more accurate ENSO SST forecasts once past the spring predictability barrier. The ECMWF ENSO SST forecasts with previous super events were actually pretty good from July 2023 and 2015. So chances are increasing with each model update that this will be the strongest El Niño event on record using a metric like traditional ONI anomalies and absolute SSTs. The current SSTs are already ahead of all the previous super El Niños to this point. The long range temperature forecasts for both the 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 super El Niño events were significantly too cold. The 500 mb forecasts provided some skill but the location and the magnitude of the ridges were more expansive with weaker troughs. This has been a common theme regardless of ENSO over the last decade. The areas under the ridges had temperatures which greatly exceeded forecasts. Plus there were one month intervals in the 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 super El Niño events when the Indio-Pacific warm pool was strong enough to drive the forcing outside the typical El Niño regions. This will be the first time with two super El Niño events only three years apart. It will be both a big sensible weather event around the world and a climate event. Since each super El Niño event since 1997-1998 resulted in a big jump in global temperatures to a higher baseline. June set new all-time SST records for developing El Niños in all Nino regions except 1+2. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii All-Time June SST records in bold YR MON NINO1+2 ANOM NINO3 ANOM NINO4 ANOM NINO3.4 ANOM 2026 6 25.94 2.82 28.33 1.71 30.19 1.22 29.17 1.44 2023 6 25.63 2.50 27.88 1.26 29.55 0.58 28.57 0.84 2015 6 25.32 2.19 28.07 1.45 29.88 0.92 28.90 1.18 1997 6 26.12 3.00 28.13 1.51 29.23 0.26 28.82 1.09

It’s a good thing that there were no injuries with how close a call this was.

https://newjersey.news12.com/2026/07/06/roof-collapses-at-bjs-wholesale-club-in-ocean-township/128UzlO4BAdoGypMDmXBA6 Multiple crews are responding to a roof collapse at a BJ’s Wholesale Club in Ocean Township. The Monmouth County Sheriff’s Office said first responders are on scene at the store on Route 35 in the Oakhurst section of Ocean Township. Officials are asking people to stay clear of the area so emergency crews can respond safely. The collapse happened around 11:30 a.m. Multiple mutual aid crews from surrounding towns were also called to the scene. Law enforcement officials told News 12 that there were no injuries reported. Police said all 27 staff members who were in the building at the time are accounted for and safe. All of the customers who were in BJ's at the time of the collapse are also safe, police said. According to Ocean Township Police Chief Michael Sorrentino and Monmouth County Sheriff Shaun Golden, approximately 20% of the rear of the building has collapsed. Officials believe the damage was caused by the weight of the water from the heavy rain that fell. Authorities are also urging drivers to avoid Route 35 because of severe flooding in the area. This remains a developing story.

Radar estimates near Breezy Point over 7 inches now with training and back building convection continuing.

This was our most extreme period around July 4th with record heat, damaging winds causing power outages, and torrential downpours leading flooding.

Major flooding in Monmouth County also.

I have been under training convection several times in the past when the totals went past 5.00. The most extreme version was in August 2011 when I had 10.00 to 11.00 and most of the rain fell in less than 7 hours. Back in June 1995 I picked up 5.15 in around 90 minutes.

Portions of Orange County show what can happen with training convection in situations like these. Orange County... Otisville 7.78 in 1010 AM 07/06 NYSM Montgomery 6.01 in 1005 AM 07/06 CWOP

These Euro monthly SST forecasts show how a large portion of the ENSO regions are currently on track to set new all-time actual SSTs and anomalies.

As I have been commenting on for a while now, these expansive marine heatwaves and associated 500mb patterns can exert an influence on our weather and climate which is independent of ENSO. So at times the other marine heatwaves and associated 500mb patterns can drive the sensible weather. Then at other intervals the ENSO can have a more direct effect. Still on other occasions there is an overlapping influence. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adz4647 Marine heatwaves in the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) have become increasingly frequent and persistent, yet the mechanisms enabling their multiseasonal duration remain poorly understood. Through observational analyses and climate model experiments, we demonstrate that NWP marine heatwaves are primarily driven by a quasistationary wavenumber 5 circumglobal wave (CGW) pattern that operates independently of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The CGW modulates surface heat fluxes during summer, triggering a self-reinforcing feedback loop where NWP warming intensifies the CGW pattern, amplifying and prolonging heatwaves across extended warm seasons. Additionally, CGW-driven summer warming in the northern North Atlantic persists into winter through oceanic thermal inertia, exciting a great-circle wave pattern that propagates back to the NWP, sustaining heatwaves through cold seasons. This interplay between atmospheric waves and trans-basin interactions enables multiyear marine heatwave events. Analysis of observational data and climate model simulations reveals a strengthening CGW influence in recent decades, indicating more frequent and prolonged NWP marine heatwaves under ongoing global warming.

You have to realize that the actual pattern isn’t always what you want it to be.

This was the warmest July 1st through 4th across the region. Several locations came close to their all-time highs. Atlantic City tied their all-time high. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Warmest July 1st-4th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-07-04 89.4 0 2 2002-07-04 86.6 0 3 1966-07-04 86.0 0 4 2018-07-04 85.3 0 5 1901-07-04 84.6 0 - 1872-07-04 84.6 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-07-04 84.5 0 2 1966-07-04 82.1 0 3 2002-07-04 81.6 0 4 2018-07-04 81.3 0 - 1964-07-04 81.3 0 5 1955-07-04 80.4 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-07-04 86.1 0 2 2018-07-04 81.9 0 3 2002-07-04 81.4 0 4 1955-07-04 78.9 0 5 2013-07-04 78.1 0 Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-07-04 89.4 0 2 1901-07-04 89.0 0 3 1898-07-04 85.6 0 4 2018-07-04 85.3 0 5 2002-07-04 84.8 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-07-04 88.6 0 2 1966-07-04 87.8 0 3 2002-07-04 86.4 0 4 2018-07-04 85.8 0 5 1955-07-04 83.9 0 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1931-01-01 to 2026-07-05 1 104.0 1933-08-01 2 103.0 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2001-08-09 - 103.0 1995-07-16 - 103.0 1966-07-03 - 103.0 1936-07-10 3 102.0 2011-07-22 - 102.0 2010-07-06 - 102.0 1991-07-20 - 102.0 1991-07-19 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ thermometer malfunction missed the 2010 max Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 108.0 2011-07-22 2 105.0 2026-07-02 - 105.0 2001-08-09 - 105.0 1993-07-10 - 105.0 1993-07-08 - 105.0 1966-07-03 - 105.0 1953-09-02 - 105.0 1949-07-04 - 105.0 1918-08-07 3 104.0 2012-07-18 - 104.0 1995-07-15 - 104.0 1993-07-09 - 104.0 1936-07-09 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 107.0 2011-07-22 2 106.0 2026-07-03 - 106.0 2010-07-06 3 104.0 2001-08-09 4 103.0 2026-07-04 - 103.0 2025-06-25 - 103.0 2025-06-24 - 103.0 2012-07-18 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 107.0 1966-07-03 2 104.0 2026-07-02 - 104.0 2011-07-22 - 104.0 2001-08-09 3 103.0 2010-07-06 - 103.0 1995-07-15 - 103.0 1948-08-26 Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 106.0 2026-07-04 - 106.0 1969-06-28 2 105.0 2026-07-03 - 105.0 2011-07-23 - 105.0 2011-07-22 3 104.0 1966-07-03 4 103.0 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2001-08-09

Then maybe you can help me understand what you mean by the term surrogate since it’s not typically a word that is used when trying to understand the weather and climate.