bluewave

I think the warm blobs can begin to exert some influence on the pattern when they become anchored to the subsurface like we are seeing now across most of the WPAC to North of Hawaii. Last winter we had one of the deepest troughs for the last 20 years emerge to the east of Japan. The surface SSTs didn’t cool very much compared to past deep trough instances since the subsurface had accumulated to much heat. So the strong gradient remained between the area east of Japan and Siberia. This lead to frequent jet extensions. Plus when the record SSTs are located near the Kuroshio Current in the WPAC and Gulf Stream in the Atlantic, they can help to initiate Rossby wave breaking which have a big influence on hemispheric circulation patterns. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.pdf

It’s pretty wild how fast we dried out after that record deluge last August.

The 1980s snowfall averaged about 6” higher than the last 7 seasons. Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T 0.1 2.6 8.2 5.9 2.7 1.0 20.4 1979-1980 T 0.0 2.5 3.0 2.3 3.2 T 11.0 1980-1981 0.0 0.2 1.7 7.7 T 6.9 0.0 16.5 1981-1982 0.0 T 3.1 12.5 0.8 0.3 8.2 24.9 1982-1983 0.0 0.0 4.8 1.0 24.7 0.1 1.5 32.1 1983-1984 0.0 T 1.2 9.9 T 10.9 T 22.0 1984-1985 0.0 T 5.5 12.4 9.0 0.4 T 27.3 1985-1986 0.0 T 2.8 3.0 13.5 T T 19.3 1986-1987 0.0 0.4 1.0 11.8 7.9 2.0 0.0 23.1 1987-1988 0.0 0.4 3.0 15.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 19.7 1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.7 4.7 0.1 2.7 0.0 8.2 Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 0.7 1.8 3.7 7.3 1.0 T 14.5 2024-2025 0.0 0.0 3.0 2.5 6.5 0.0 0.0 12.0 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.4 10.4 T 0.0 12.8 2022-2023 0.0 T T T 1.7 0.4 0.0 2.1 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 17.8 3.2 0.5 0.0 21.7 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 7.2 0.9 26.4 T T 34.5 2019-2020 0.0 T 1.9 1.9 T T T 3.8 2018-2019 0.0 4.8 T 0.7 3.1 6.1 0.0 14.7

The subsurface is very impressive also.

Top down drought with all the record warmth and blocking in Canada forced this system too far to our south. Places like JFK have had their 7 driest September to September period. They are down 11.3” of precipitation over the last year at only 31.99”. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1966-09-16 27.41 0 2 1985-09-16 29.11 0 3 1965-09-16 30.62 0 4 1970-09-16 30.92 0 5 1995-09-16 31.41 0 6 2022-09-16 31.84 0 7 2025-09-16 31.99 0 8 2002-09-16 33.14 0 9 1954-09-16 33.40 19 10 1981-09-16 33.42 0

Yeah, still too early to know if it’s just a default or the models are onto something.

Top 10 driest September to September period for many stations in the Northeast.

That is the trend which is independent of the different regimes. It could be why the seasonal models are defaulting to it. I am not really interested in what the seasonal models are showing this early.

The blended model ensemble mean is defaulting to the full trend diagram.

They really need to change their opposition to air conditioning since Europe has some of the fastest summer warming on the planet. https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/02/climate/europe-air-conditioning-heat-wave-intl-latam

Yeah, it’s funny that most of the seasonal model forecasts for this winter are defaulting to figure 1 full trend.

Having this happen two falls in a row makes me think something might have changed at least for the near term precipitation around here. But it has only been a year and things can flip back to wetter again. This top down warming and drying from Canada is something new for us though.

I will give the EPS weeklies credit for starting to pick up on March 2012 record warmth during mid-February. https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2012/02/16/ecmwf-weekly-maps/

Portions of the Northeast could see more drought expansion with the update tomorrow.

Friday could be the warmest day at JFK since 8-25 since we are finally getting an offshore flow. Moderate dewpoints and steep low level lapse rates. So mid 80s are possible from the forecast soundings.