bluewave

That is just one example. The total amount across many locations and timeframes is too vast for me to list in one thread. But I have plenty of more examples for other individual locations and time periods.

This January was much warmer in the Arctic and the CONUS than 1977.

2019 was the warmest January at Rockford, IL to feature a -25° or colder reading with the big temperature swings that month and a high over 50°. Climatological Data for Rockford Area, IL (ThreadEx) - January 2019 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 788 333 - - 1449 0 2.27 24.9 - Average 25.4 10.7 18.1 -3.7 - - - - 5.9 Normal 29.1 14.5 21.8 - 2019-01-01 32 23 27.5 4.2 37 0 T T 0 2019-01-02 28 22 25.0 1.9 40 0 T T 0 2019-01-03 39 20 29.5 6.5 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 2019-01-04 46 26 36.0 13.2 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2019-01-05 50 26 38.0 15.3 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2019-01-06 40 26 33.0 10.5 32 0 T 0.0 0 2019-01-07 51 37 44.0 21.6 21 0 0.53 0.0 0 2019-01-08 44 21 32.5 10.3 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2019-01-09 23 16 19.5 -2.6 45 0 T T 0 2019-01-10 27 14 20.5 -1.5 44 0 0.00 0.0 0 2019-01-11 29 17 23.0 1.2 42 0 0.00 0.0 0 2019-01-12 31 29 30.0 8.3 35 0 0.28 3.8 0 2019-01-13 32 26 29.0 7.4 36 0 0.01 0.2 4 2019-01-14 26 23 24.5 3.0 40 0 0.00 0.0 4 2019-01-15 33 24 28.5 7.0 36 0 T T 4 2019-01-16 34 26 30.0 8.6 35 0 T 0.0 3 2019-01-17 33 27 30.0 8.7 35 0 T T 3 2019-01-18 30 23 26.5 5.2 38 0 0.17 2.3 2 2019-01-19 24 6 15.0 -6.2 50 0 0.13 4.0 8 2019-01-20 10 -2 4.0 -17.2 61 0 0.00 0.0 8 2019-01-21 14 -7 3.5 -17.7 61 0 0.00 0.0 8 2019-01-22 31 13 22.0 0.8 43 0 0.24 1.5 7 2019-01-23 29 9 19.0 -2.2 46 0 0.23 4.2 11 2019-01-24 22 -2 10.0 -11.2 55 0 T 0.2 13 2019-01-25 1 -11 -5.0 -26.3 70 0 0.05 0.6 12 2019-01-26 5 -21 -8.0 -29.3 73 0 0.07 1.5 14 2019-01-27 8 -15 -3.5 -24.9 68 0 0.10 1.3 14 2019-01-28 21 9 15.0 -6.5 50 0 0.38 4.0 17 2019-01-29 10 -16 -3.0 -24.6 68 0 T 0.2 17 2019-01-30 -13 -25 -19.0 -40.7 84 0 0.00 0.0 17 2019-01-31 -2 -31 -16.5 -38.3 81 0 0.08 1.1 16 Climatological Data for Rockford Area, IL (ThreadEx) - January 1982 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 594 -47 - - 1735 0 1.58 14.8 - Average 19.2 -1.5 8.8 -13.0 - - - - 6.0 Normal 29.1 14.5 21.8 - 1982-01-01 18 3 10.5 -12.8 54 0 0.00 0.0 3 1982-01-02 34 15 24.5 1.4 40 0 0.28 1.9 3 1982-01-03 34 20 27.0 4.0 38 0 0.18 0.3 4 1982-01-04 33 9 21.0 -1.8 44 0 0.16 1.3 4 1982-01-05 31 6 18.5 -4.2 46 0 0.00 0.0 4 1982-01-06 23 5 14.0 -8.5 51 0 0.08 1.1 4 1982-01-07 5 -10 -2.5 -24.9 67 0 0.00 0.0 5 1982-01-08 15 -10 2.5 -19.7 62 0 0.02 0.3 5 1982-01-09 5 -21 -8.0 -30.1 73 0 0.04 0.4 5 1982-01-10 -5 -27 -16.0 -38.0 81 0 0.00 0.0 5 1982-01-11 3 -6 -1.5 -23.3 66 0 0.00 0.0 5 1982-01-12 10 -8 1.0 -20.7 64 0 0.11 1.1 5 1982-01-13 16 -3 6.5 -15.1 58 0 0.07 0.9 6 1982-01-14 7 -15 -4.0 -25.5 69 0 0.00 0.1 6 1982-01-15 12 -18 -3.0 -24.5 68 0 0.04 0.6 6 1982-01-16 6 -24 -9.0 -30.4 74 0 0.00 0.0 6 1982-01-17 2 -25 -11.5 -32.8 76 0 0.11 2.1 6 1982-01-18 22 0 11.0 -10.3 54 0 0.00 0.0 8 1982-01-19 27 5 16.0 -5.2 49 0 0.00 0.0 7 1982-01-20 28 7 17.5 -3.7 47 0 0.09 0.7 7 1982-01-21 27 23 25.0 3.8 40 0 0.00 0.0 8 1982-01-22 37 18 27.5 6.3 37 0 0.16 0.3 7 1982-01-23 37 -1 18.0 -3.2 47 0 0.00 0.0 7 1982-01-24 -1 -9 -5.0 -26.2 70 0 0.02 0.3 7 1982-01-25 7 -9 -1.0 -22.3 66 0 0.08 2.1 9 1982-01-26 9 -18 -4.5 -25.8 69 0 0.00 0.0 9 1982-01-27 35 8 21.5 0.1 43 0 0.00 0.0 9 1982-01-28 34 6 20.0 -1.5 45 0 0.00 0.0 7 1982-01-29 32 6 19.0 -2.6 46 0 0.13 1.1 6 1982-01-30 31 18 24.5 2.8 40 0 0.00 0.0 7 1982-01-31 20 8 14.0 -7.8 51 0 0.01 0.2 6 Climatological Data for Rockford Area, IL (ThreadEx) - January 1985 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 712 87 - - 1607 0 1.00 13.4 - Average 23.0 2.8 12.9 -8.9 - - - - 8.6 Normal 29.1 14.5 21.8 - 1985-01-01 31 2 16.5 -6.8 48 0 0.34 3.9 9 1985-01-02 10 -8 1.0 -22.1 64 0 0.00 0.0 9 1985-01-03 19 -14 2.5 -20.5 62 0 0.00 0.0 9 1985-01-04 32 -8 12.0 -10.8 53 0 0.00 0.0 9 1985-01-05 39 24 31.5 8.8 33 0 0.00 0.0 8 1985-01-06 37 24 30.5 8.0 34 0 0.00 0.0 7 1985-01-07 37 28 32.5 10.1 32 0 T T 7 1985-01-08 28 8 18.0 -4.2 47 0 T T 7 1985-01-09 22 8 15.0 -7.1 50 0 0.01 0.1 7 1985-01-10 24 15 19.5 -2.5 45 0 0.11 1.7 8 1985-01-11 20 4 12.0 -9.8 53 0 T T 8 1985-01-12 14 0 7.0 -14.7 58 0 0.00 0.0 8 1985-01-13 28 9 18.5 -3.1 46 0 0.00 0.0 8 1985-01-14 35 4 19.5 -2.0 45 0 0.01 0.3 8 1985-01-15 15 -8 3.5 -18.0 61 0 0.00 0.0 8 1985-01-16 22 11 16.5 -4.9 48 0 0.15 2.2 8 1985-01-17 22 11 16.5 -4.8 48 0 0.14 1.9 10 1985-01-18 25 6 15.5 -5.8 49 0 0.02 0.4 11 1985-01-19 6 -24 -9.0 -30.2 74 0 T T 11 1985-01-20 -5 -26 -15.5 -36.7 80 0 T T 11 1985-01-21 17 -6 5.5 -15.7 59 0 T T 11 1985-01-22 22 12 17.0 -4.2 48 0 T T 10 1985-01-23 27 15 21.0 -0.2 44 0 T T 8 1985-01-24 30 21 25.5 4.3 39 0 0.06 0.9 8 1985-01-25 29 -5 12.0 -9.3 53 0 0.01 0.2 9 1985-01-26 22 -10 6.0 -15.3 59 0 0.00 0.0 9 1985-01-27 30 8 19.0 -2.4 46 0 0.00 0.0 8 1985-01-28 15 -5 5.0 -16.5 60 0 0.00 0.0 8 1985-01-29 22 -6 8.0 -13.6 57 0 0.01 0.2 8 1985-01-30 28 9 18.5 -3.2 46 0 0.14 1.5 7 1985-01-31 9 -12 -1.5 -23.3 66 0 T 0.1 9 Climatological Data for Rockford Area, IL (ThreadEx) - January 2009 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 695 160 - - 1580 0 0.81 12.6 - Average 22.4 5.2 13.8 -8.0 - - - - 5.1 Normal 29.1 14.5 21.8 - 2009-01-01 31 16 23.5 0.2 41 0 0.00 0.0 1 2009-01-02 30 14 22.0 -1.1 43 0 0.00 0.0 T 2009-01-03 37 16 26.5 3.5 38 0 T 0.0 T 2009-01-04 37 14 25.5 2.7 39 0 0.26 0.0 T 2009-01-05 29 9 19.0 -3.7 46 0 0.00 0.0 T 2009-01-06 31 17 24.0 1.5 41 0 0.06 0.8 T 2009-01-07 28 12 20.0 -2.4 45 0 T 0.2 1 2009-01-08 23 9 16.0 -6.2 49 0 T T 1 2009-01-09 30 12 21.0 -1.1 44 0 0.24 2.7 3 2009-01-10 28 18 23.0 1.0 42 0 0.04 3.8 6 2009-01-11 19 8 13.5 -8.3 51 0 T T 7 2009-01-12 27 7 17.0 -4.7 48 0 0.05 1.7 7 2009-01-13 22 -5 8.5 -13.1 56 0 0.01 0.4 7 2009-01-14 9 -6 1.5 -20.0 63 0 0.12 1.9 8 2009-01-15 -6 -17 -11.5 -33.0 76 0 0.00 0.0 9 2009-01-16 0 -25 -12.5 -33.9 77 0 0.00 0.0 9 2009-01-17 27 0 13.5 -7.8 51 0 T T 8 2009-01-18 17 9 13.0 -8.3 52 0 T 0.1 8 2009-01-19 20 6 13.0 -8.2 52 0 0.02 0.4 8 2009-01-20 19 6 12.5 -8.7 52 0 0.00 0.0 7 2009-01-21 25 10 17.5 -3.7 47 0 0.00 0.0 7 2009-01-22 31 5 18.0 -3.2 47 0 0.00 0.0 7 2009-01-23 27 12 19.5 -1.7 45 0 0.00 0.0 6 2009-01-24 12 -5 3.5 -17.7 61 0 0.00 0.0 6 2009-01-25 11 -5 3.0 -18.3 62 0 0.00 0.0 6 2009-01-26 14 -4 5.0 -16.3 60 0 T T 6 2009-01-27 15 4 9.5 -11.9 55 0 0.01 0.2 6 2009-01-28 16 1 8.5 -13.0 56 0 T 0.3 6 2009-01-29 29 15 22.0 0.4 43 0 T 0.1 6 2009-01-30 16 0 8.0 -13.7 57 0 T T 6 2009-01-31 41 7 24.0 2.2 41 0 0.00 0.0 6 Climatological Data for Rockford Area, IL (ThreadEx) - January 1924 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 792 90 - - 1566 0 1.27 9.5 - Average 25.5 2.9 14.2 -7.6 - - - - 3.8 Normal 29.1 14.5 21.8 - 1924-01-01 19 -13 3.0 -20.3 62 0 0.00 0.0 5 1924-01-02 24 -4 10.0 -13.1 55 0 T T 5 1924-01-03 21 -6 7.5 -15.5 57 0 0.00 0.0 5 1924-01-04 12 -11 0.5 -22.3 64 0 T T 5 1924-01-05 -11 -25 -18.0 -40.7 83 0 0.00 0.0 5 1924-01-06 23 -19 2.0 -20.5 63 0 0.00 0.0 5 1924-01-07 32 7 19.5 -2.9 45 0 0.00 0.0 M 1924-01-08 44 13 28.5 6.3 36 0 0.00 0.0 M 1924-01-09 41 35 38.0 15.9 27 0 0.16 0.0 M 1924-01-10 38 23 30.5 8.5 34 0 0.41 0.0 M 1924-01-11 24 17 20.5 -1.3 44 0 T T M 1924-01-12 21 7 14.0 -7.7 51 0 T T M 1924-01-13 18 -10 4.0 -17.6 61 0 0.00 0.0 M 1924-01-14 25 9 17.0 -4.5 48 0 T T M 1924-01-15 35 20 27.5 6.0 37 0 0.00 0.0 T 1924-01-16 32 1 16.5 -4.9 48 0 0.68 9.5 M 1924-01-17 12 -15 -1.5 -22.8 66 0 0.00 0.0 M 1924-01-18 20 -8 6.0 -15.3 59 0 T T M 1924-01-19 20 0 10.0 -11.2 55 0 0.00 0.0 M 1924-01-20 6 -12 -3.0 -24.2 68 0 0.00 0.0 M 1924-01-21 2 -21 -9.5 -30.7 74 0 0.00 0.0 M 1924-01-22 36 -7 14.5 -6.7 50 0 0.00 0.0 M 1924-01-23 33 16 24.5 3.3 40 0 0.00 0.0 M 1924-01-24 36 11 23.5 2.3 41 0 0.02 T M 1924-01-25 35 -8 13.5 -7.8 51 0 0.00 0.0 M 1924-01-26 8 -8 0.0 -21.3 65 0 0.00 0.0 M 1924-01-27 25 -6 9.5 -11.9 55 0 0.00 0.0 M 1924-01-28 40 19 29.5 8.0 35 0 0.00 0.0 M 1924-01-29 39 33 36.0 14.4 29 0 0.00 0.0 M 1924-01-30 43 27 35.0 13.3 30 0 0.00 0.0 M 1924-01-31 39 25 32.0 10.2 33 0 T 0.0 T

The magnitude of the temperature swings are greater now than in the old days. In order for the CONUS to have a top 5 to top 10 coldest winter there needs to be extensive cold across a large portion of the CONUS which hasn’t happened since the 1970s. These days we can’t get significant Arctic outbreaks without some extreme Arctic warmth like we have been experiencing this winter. No spots in the CONUS this January will see as extreme a departure for the entire month as portions of the Arctic have.

I would say the pattern this winter fits perfectly with what one would expect from a warmer world. First, the extent of the cold this winter was limited compared to what we used to get from Arctic outbreaks across the Northern Hemisphere. The top 5 cold from late January into early February from the Central and Eastern CONUS will only be of a 10 to perhaps 15 day duration. In the old days we could have 60-90 day durations of top 5 cold like in the late 1970s in the CONUS. Plus the record early late November SSW at the time of the lowest Arctic sea ice extent for the late fall into early winter matches model studies which show a link with low Arctic sea ice when combined with a -QBO. Also notice the all-time record warmth out West this winter instead of coast to coast extended cold like we used to get. The presence of the warmth in proximity to the cold can lead to very large temperature swings in some locations.

That’s what makes this top 5 coldest pattern from January 24th through at least February 2nd for the Central and Eastern CONUS so impressive.

Maybe Walpack was closer to -40° in January 1994 with the great cold air drainage that location gets. Too bad they didn’t have readings there before 2004. It’s significantly colder there than Sussex, NJ with radiational cooling which we have a longer climate record for. Climatological Data for SUSSEX 1 NW, NJ - January 1994 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 862 86 - - 1263 0 4.34 39.0 - Average 28.7 3.2 16.2 -9.6 - - - - 9.0 Normal 34.9 16.7 25.8 - 1215 0 3.50 11.6 1994-01-01 27 M M M M M 0.00 0.0 1 1994-01-02 40 M M M M M T T T 1994-01-03 45 23 34.0 7.0 31 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-01-04 25 20 22.5 -4.3 42 0 0.34 4.0 5 1994-01-05 26 18 22.0 -4.7 43 0 M 3.0 7 1994-01-06 32 12 22.0 -4.5 43 0 M 0.0 6 1994-01-07 15 11 13.0 -13.4 52 0 0.07 1.0 5 1994-01-08 15 10 12.5 -13.7 52 0 0.82 7.0 M 1994-01-09 30 7 18.5 -7.6 46 0 T T 8 1994-01-10 34 7 20.5 -5.5 44 0 0.00 0.0 7 1994-01-11 24 -1 11.5 -14.4 53 0 M M 7 1994-01-12 28 12 20.0 -5.8 45 0 0.00 0.0 6 1994-01-13 33 16 24.5 -1.2 40 0 0.39 6.0 10 1994-01-14 38 27 32.5 6.9 32 0 0.00 0.0 M 1994-01-15 35 3 19.0 -6.5 46 0 0.17 2.0 7 1994-01-16 M -8 M M M M T 0.0 6 1994-01-17 14 M M M M M 0.00 0.0 6 1994-01-18 31 4 17.5 -7.8 47 0 1.36 12.0 M 1994-01-19 31 -11 10.0 -15.3 55 0 0.00 0.0 M 1994-01-20 8 -16 -4.0 -29.3 69 0 0.00 0.0 17 1994-01-21 11 -29 -9.0 -34.2 74 0 0.00 0.0 17 1994-01-22 12 -28 -8.0 -33.2 73 0 0.00 0.0 17 1994-01-23 30 4 17.0 -8.2 48 0 0.00 0.0 16 1994-01-24 33 M M M M M 0.00 0.0 16 1994-01-25 47 30 38.5 13.3 26 0 0.00 0.0 16 1994-01-26 34 9 21.5 -3.8 43 0 0.31 4.0 12 1994-01-27 12 -15 -1.5 -26.8 66 0 0.12 M 13 1994-01-28 28 -15 6.5 -18.8 58 0 M M 11 1994-01-29 54 -28 13.0 -12.4 52 0 0.76 M M 1994-01-30 39 19 29.0 3.5 36 0 0.00 0.0 M 1994-01-31 31 5 18.0 -7.5 47 0 0.00 0.0 M https://www.njweather.org/station/79

A great drone video just got posted this morning.

It’s very rare for us to get 3 or more cold months in a row here as has been the case since November. The last time this happened was January to March 2015. Let’s hope we don’t see a rebound like 2015 into 2016 again.

If we had a strong northerly cold air drain down the Hudson Valley like in early February 2023, then NYC wouldn’t have had any trouble getting to 0 to 5°. NYC has always needed the winds to stay up for their coldest readings. The winds were too light to transport the cold into the heat island areas this morning.

My friend took a photo of the frozen Great South Bay yesterday just before landing.

A top 5 coldest January 24th to 30th across the area and much of the Central to Eastern CONUS. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Coldest January 24th to 30th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1935-01-30 15.0 0 2 1888-01-30 15.6 0 3 1936-01-30 15.9 0 4 2026-01-30 16.9 0 5 1961-01-30 17.4 0 6 1873-01-30 18.4 0 7 1897-01-30 18.5 0 8 1948-01-30 18.8 0 9 1881-01-30 19.2 0 10 2004-01-30 19.4 0

My first 0° since moving up here.

This is one of those rare times that a November 500mb pattern locked in for the winter.

An icy New Haven Harbor today looking west from the Pardee Seawall Park.