bluewave

Another March reversion to the new 2020s milder and less snowy mean. March Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 46.6 46.6 2026 46.2 46.2 2025 48.1 48.1 2024 48.5 48.5 2023 44.9 44.9 2022 45.2 45.2 2021 45.6 45.6 2020 47.9 47.9 March Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.2 0.2 2026 T T 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.6 0.6 2022 0.8 0.8 2021 T T 2020 T T March Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 42.9 42.9 2019 40.9 40.9 2018 40.4 40.4 2017 39.8 39.8 2016 49.1 49.1 2015 37.7 37.7 2014 37.8 37.8 2013 40.3 40.3 2012 51.3 51.3 2011 43.6 43.6 2010 48.2 48.2 March Monthly Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.2 6.2 2019 9.9 9.9 2018 13.2 13.2 2017 9.4 9.4 2016 1.6 1.6 2015 16.3 16.3 2014 0.2 0.2 2013 8.8 8.8 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 2.2 2.2 2010 T T

Happy one year anniversary of the classic spring in the Northeast pattern.

23-24 was similar in strength for total Nino 1+2 to Nino 4 SST warmth and would have registered a peak ONI around +2.4 C had they not changed the baseline making the departure artificially smaller. This is one of the challenges of measuring the El Niño in a warming world. The winter temperatures in North America and 500 ridge was of super El Niño intensity. But the stronger subtropical ridging didn’t allow for the typical Aleutian Trough strength and the Nino trough we typically see in the Southern and Eastern U.S. This could be a function of the continuing mid-latitude marine heatwaves overlapping wit the ENSO influence like we have frequently seen over the last decade. This effectively means that a super El Niño using the weaker RONI started somewhere near +1.4C with the SST configuration we had in 23-24.

Impressive back door gradient between the CT Shoreline and NJ. My average high has been 47.2° vs 55.3° at Newark. So I haven’t been getting the record warmth that the rest of the CONUS has. Climatological Data for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - March 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1226 808 - - 668 0 4.79 Average 47.2 31.1 39.1 1.3 - - - Normal 46.2 29.4 37.8 - 707 0 2026-03-01 41 26 33.5 -1.2 31 0 T 2026-03-02 27 15 21.0 -13.9 44 0 0.00 2026-03-03 34 15 24.5 -10.6 40 0 0.41 2026-03-04 48 28 38.0 2.6 27 0 0.10 2026-03-05 40 28 34.0 -1.6 31 0 0.75 2026-03-06 39 35 37.0 1.2 28 0 0.31 2026-03-07 41 34 37.5 1.4 27 0 0.09 2026-03-08 55 35 45.0 8.7 20 0 T 2026-03-09 64 30 47.0 10.4 18 0 0.00 2026-03-10 63 31 47.0 10.2 18 0 0.00 2026-03-11 60 41 50.5 13.4 14 0 0.30 2026-03-12 53 32 42.5 5.2 22 0 0.22 2026-03-13 39 31 35.0 -2.6 30 0 0.00 2026-03-14 47 30 38.5 0.7 26 0 0.00 2026-03-15 42 29 35.5 -2.6 29 0 0.00 2026-03-16 55 40 47.5 9.1 17 0 1.68 2026-03-17 53 31 42.0 3.3 23 0 0.01 2026-03-18 35 26 30.5 -8.4 34 0 0.00 2026-03-19 38 28 33.0 -6.2 32 0 0.00 2026-03-20 49 27 38.0 -1.5 27 0 0.08 2026-03-21 53 41 47.0 7.2 18 0 0.00 2026-03-22 48 40 44.0 3.9 21 0 0.17 2026-03-23 49 35 42.0 1.6 23 0 0.67 2026-03-24 46 31 38.5 -2.2 26 0 0.00 2026-03-25 48 28 38.0 -3.0 27 0 0.00 2026-03-26 59 41 50.0 8.6 15 0 0.00 2026-03-27 M M M M M M M 2026-03-28 M M M M M M M 2026-03-29 M M M M M M M 2026-03-30 M M M M M M M 2026-03-31 M M M M M M M Climatological Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - March 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 1437 963 - - 486 3 3.71 T - Average 55.3 37.0 46.2 4.4 - - - - 0.1 Normal 50.0 33.5 41.8 - 605 0 3.48 5.1 2026-03-01 44 29 36.5 -1.8 28 0 T T 1 2026-03-02 34 21 27.5 -11.0 37 0 0.00 0.0 1 2026-03-03 38 30 34.0 -4.8 31 0 0.42 T T 2026-03-04 47 37 42.0 2.9 23 0 T 0.0 0 2026-03-05 44 39 41.5 2.2 23 0 1.62 0.0 0 2026-03-06 43 37 40.0 0.4 25 0 0.16 0.0 0 2026-03-07 50 37 43.5 3.7 21 0 T 0.0 0 2026-03-08 73 48 60.5 20.4 4 0 T 0.0 0 2026-03-09 73 44 58.5 18.1 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-03-10 82 46 64.0 23.3 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-03-11 82 53 67.5 26.6 0 3 0.35 0.0 0 2026-03-12 64 35 49.5 8.3 15 0 0.07 T 0 2026-03-13 45 30 37.5 -4.0 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-03-14 53 34 43.5 1.7 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-03-15 46 36 41.0 -1.1 24 0 T 0.0 0 2026-03-16 67 45 56.0 13.6 9 0 0.60 0.0 0 2026-03-17 47 31 39.0 -3.7 26 0 T 0.0 0 2026-03-18 37 25 31.0 -12.0 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-03-19 44 32 38.0 -5.3 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-03-20 66 35 50.5 6.9 14 0 0.07 0.0 0 2026-03-21 60 48 54.0 10.1 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-03-22 64 44 54.0 9.7 11 0 0.08 0.0 0 2026-03-23 52 35 43.5 -1.1 21 0 0.33 0.0 0 2026-03-24 50 32 41.0 -3.9 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-03-25 55 34 44.5 -0.8 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 2026-03-26 77 46 61.5 15.9 3 0 0.01 0.0 0 2026-03-27 M M M M M M M M M 2026-03-28 M M M M M M M M M 2026-03-29 M M M M M M M M M 2026-03-30 M M M M M M M M M 2026-03-31 M M M M M M M M M

This basin-wide warming across the North Pacific overwhelming the PDO is something new. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02482-z Pan-basin warming now overshadows robust Pacific Decadal Oscillation The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has served as a key index linking basin-scale climate variability to marine ecosystem changes in the North Pacific. However, recent apparent breakdowns of PDO–ecosystem correlations have raised concerns about the stability of the mode and its continued relevance in a warming climate. Here we show that basin-wide warming now overwhelms PDO-related sea surface temperature (SST) variability, although neither the PDO’s spatial pattern nor its strength have changed. We introduce the pan-basin pattern as a complementary index to describe the non-stationary SST baseline of the North Pacific. Regional SSTs increasingly reflect the superposition of these two signals, providing an explanation for weakened or inverted PDO–ecosystem correlations. Future use of the PDO index in management will require discerning the effects of internal dynamics from those of absolute changes in SST as extreme and no-analogue ocean conditions driven by interacting natural variability and anthropogenic warming become more common.

The new normal has been record marine heatwaves across multiple ocean basins influencing our sensible weather. Oscillations and teleconnections will continue to exist. But the competing nature of the marine heatwaves will allow them to be expressed in new ways. The next question is what becomes of the record SST warmth east of Japan that we have been experiencing since the late 2010s? I see you are in the same camp with Paul. I haven’t taken a position yet on whether a strong enough El Niño can cause it to shift to another part of the Pacific basin. So right now I am in the open camp since I don’t have enough data to make a call yet. But I agree with you that we would need to significantly weaken it to allow for a very strong +PDO to emerge which we last saw back in 2015. The long range climate models maintain the warm pool there into the late fall and perhaps early winter. Beyond that point who really knows. But it will be interesting to see how things play out going forward. Since we have never experienced a warm pool there if this magnitude lasting nearly a decade before.

The warm spots will make a run on 70° today and 80° next week.

We had some good discussions on this topic over the years. My guess is that the 500 mb ridging associated with the ABNA ridge during 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 winters was effectively pulled south due to the record mid-latitude marine heatwaves across the North Pacific. So a much stronger subtropical ridge influence than 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. This lead to lower heights across the -WPO region in 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 relative to 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. So this stronger subtropical ridge influence may have also contributed to the weaker TPV in the Great Lakes and Northeast and much warmer winters than we got those years. Notice that the warm pool extending from Japan to California didn’t let the PDO index show a strongly +PDO reading even with the record SSTs off the California Coast for this time of year. This also makes it more difficult to have a one to one comparison with the PDO readings of the past that didn’t have the record mid-latitude warm pool east of Japan and south of the Aleutians.

Areas like the CT Shoreline have been nearly 10° lower for the average highs compared to NJ this month with the backdoor pattern. Coastal areas are normally colder this time of year. But the stalling warm fronts near NYC have enhanced the gradient. Monthly Data for March 2026 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 54.8 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 54.4 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 53.9 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 53.9 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 53.7 NJ HARRISON COOP 52.9 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 52.5 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 51.8 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 51.6 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 51.4 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 51.3 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 50.6 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 50.3 CT DANBURY COOP 50.2 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 50.2 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 50.1 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 50.0 NY CENTERPORT COOP 49.8 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 49.5 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 49.1 NY SYOSSET COOP 49.0 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 48.8 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 48.7 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 48.3 NY ST. JAMES COOP 48.2 CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN 48.1 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 48.1 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 47.9 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 47.7 CT GUILFORD COOP 47.5 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 46.8 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 46.7 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 46.6 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 46.0 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 45.5

The atmospheric response in 23-24 was a full super El Niño when viewed through the intensity and location of the 500mb ridge in North America and warmth along the Northern Tier. The troughs across the South and East along with the Aleutian low were much weaker than we typically see with stronger El Niños. It’s a similar effect to what we have seen the last two winters with the ridges becoming more expansive than 13-14 and 14-15 leading to a much smaller trough across the Great Lakes and Northeast So we didn’t get the magnitude of the cold or snow experienced during the 13-14 and 14-15 winters during 24-25 and 25-26. Goes to the shrinking Northern Hemisphere cold pool relative to similar teleconnections during the past. So metrics like ONI, RONI, and PDO need to be filtered through this newer expression of the ridges and troughs to arrive at the sensible weather.

Even the ONI has been having issues due the warming baseline updating every 5 years. So a +1.5 ONI today can have the same actual SSTs and heat release to the atmosphere as a 1.7 to +2.0 ONI did back in the old days. It’s a bit like relying on departures for temperatures as the same temperature these days as the older era will have a smaller departure due to the warming baseline. This can lead to super El Niño winters in actuality like 23-24 appearing weaker on the ONI and RONI due to the warming baseline shrinking the departure. But we saw how strongly the global temperatures spiked with that event along with the warmest winter on record for the CONUS with lower ONI and RONI values than 97-98 had. The all important 500 mb atmospheric response was very close to 97-98. Plus the 23-24 event was so spread out from Nino 1+2 to just west of the dateline that the collective heat release was very impressive than just looking at the actual Nino 3.4 SSTs.

I don’t think RONI is a relevant metric for measuring El Niños since 2023-2024 had an even warmer North American atmospheric response than 1997-1998 did with a very similar 500 mb pattern.

Early April looks like a battle between 80° warmth trying to push north vs the backdoor cold front. Notice the classic split high structure between Southeast Canada and Bermuda. My guess is that we will have a day or several that the 80° warmth pushes into NJ. But still uncertain how warm points north and east of NYC will be able to get.