bluewave

The forecast record breaking 600 DM ridge next week in the Upper Midwest is yet another pattern since May that doesn’t fit the typical developing record super El Niño playbook.

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 0154 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.70 INCHES WAS SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 1.79 INCHES SET IN 1952. THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST DAILY PRECIPITATION VALUE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES FOR PHILADELPHIA IN 837 DAYS, WHICH ENDS THE 4TH LONGEST SUCH STREAK ON RECORD. PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR THE PHILADELPHIA PA AREA DATE BACK TO NOVEMBER 1871.

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n_anomaly.uk.php As described in the data information sheet, the +80N mean temperature index is not a climate data record. Since 2002, the daily mean temperatures are calculated from the operational atmosphere model at ECMWF, and changes in the operational model over time may affect the resulting temperature trends. The effect of this should be considered before making firm conclusions on basis of trends in the +80N climate indices.

This will be a very rare pancake heat dome Notice how compressed the forecast record 600 dm heights for the MSP area will be. So the 850 mb plume will be fairly narrow. If it ejects perfectly coinciding with the daily highs next week around 4pm then my guess is the warm spots could reach 100° to 103°. If the warmest 850 mb temperatures occur at night then the daytime max could only be 96° to 100° for the warm spots. This is probably why each model is flipping from run to run since the timing of the peak 850 mb temperatures keeps changing. Fairly narrow 850 mb plume

Even though the areas north of 60N had their warmest June on record, a small area of the Arctic to the north of Alaska had their coldest June on record. This Beaufort Sea region is a key area in determining what the annual sea ice minimum in September will be. Early season weak dipole patterns which are colder in this region have been common since 2013. It indicates locally fewer melt ponds and a better pattern for sea ice retention toward the Pacific side of the Arctic. Seasons like 2012 and 2020 had very strong dipole patterns which preconditioned the ice for a big melt out by August and September. Most seasons since 2013 have finished in the 4.0 to 4.9 million sq km range for extent. Only 2012 and 2020 finished below 4.0 million sq km due to extreme dipole patterns and early record melt ponding. Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow For the combined area poleward of 60N, this was the warmest June on record - despite the fact that a portion of the area north of Alaska had its coldest June on record (since 1940). @alaskawx.bsky.social 10:51 PM · Jul 6, 2026 Arctic Temperatures https://alaskaclimate.substack.com/p/june-2026-arctic-and-alaska-climate June was very mild over a large part of the Arctic. About 70 percent of the Arctic (land and seas poleward of 60°N) had a warmer than average June relative to the 1991-2020 baseline (Fig. 1). But almost 85 percent of Arctic land areas were milder than normal. About 12 percent of the Arctic had the warmest June since 1950 in ERA5 reanalysis, while only 1 percent had the coldest June in the past 77 years. The warmth was most dramatic in western Siberia. For Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug this was by far the warmest June on record. For the third time in the past five years, Svalbard had the warmest June on record. Parts of the Northwest Territories and southern Nunavut, Canada also had the warmest June on record. Areas with below normal temperatures were more restricted. June was quite chilly north of about 75N over the Canadian Arctic Islands and westward into the Arctic basin east of the dateline as well as on Alaska’s North Slope. Of special note was the extreme warmth in northwest Siberia on June 25. Beliy Island (73.3°N), just offshore of the Yamal Peninsula, reached 28.3C (83F). According to M. Herrera on his “Extreme Temperatures Around the World” Bluesky account, this is (apparently) the highest temperature on record so far north anywhere in the world. This heat was concurrent with the late June western and central European heatwave but was entirely distinct, as Russia east of Ural Mountains was generally cooler than normal during this time. Since 1950, this was easily the warmest June on record for the Arctic overall (Fig. 2) and the mildest since 2020. Arctic lands also had the highest June average temperature.

First time that Harrison,NJ away from the sea breeze reached 20 days of 90° or greater by July 8th. The station is in 3rd place for 95° days at 8. They are in 1st place with 4 days reaching 100°. The New Brunswick COOP is 2nd only to 2010 for the warmest average summer high temperature through June 8th. This matches the entire region which has numerous top 5 for average maximum temperature so far. Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ Most 90° days by July 8th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-07-08 20 0 - 2010-07-08 20 17 2 2018-07-08 18 0 3 2024-07-08 17 0 - 2021-07-08 17 0 - 2002-07-08 17 5 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ Most 95° days by July 8th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2012-07-08 11 19 2 2021-07-08 9 0 3 2026-07-08 8 0 - 2010-07-08 8 17 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-07-08 4 0 2 2025-07-08 3 0 - 2010-07-08 3 17 3 2021-07-08 2 0 - 2012-07-08 2 19 - 1999-07-08 2 1 Time Series Summary for NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE, NJ Highest average maximum temperature June 1 to July 8 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-07-08 87.2 0 2 2026-07-08 86.3 0 3 2024-07-08 86.1 0 4 1999-07-08 84.8 0 5 2008-07-08 84.7 0

Yeah, this is going to be a very impressive ridge for that part of North America. MPX has a shot at a new all-time 500 mb height record. The previous record is less than three years old.

The Nino 1+2 regions not fully cooling off from 2023-2024 super El Nino for the first time was an early signal something was different this time. Notice how much warmer Nino 1+2 was in 2025 than all the previous years following super El Niños. Almost like a bridge between the two super El Niños only three years apart.

Yeah, this is the first time that a more La Niña-like -PDO pattern is overlapping with such a strong El Niño during the summer leading to so much volatility. Click the top right arrow below.

A much needed soaking rainstorm here just east of HVN. This was officially my wettest 6 day period since moving up here. Now at 4.84 for July. This is the highest precipitation month here since October 2025. Maximum 6-Day Total Precipitation for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT since 2020 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 4.91 2021-07-06 through 2021-07-11 0 2 4.84 2026-07-01 through 2026-07-06 0 Monthly Total Precipitation for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026 1.50 1.19 4.87 1.67 3.17 1.96 4.84 M M M M M 19.20 2025 0.73 2.77 3.73 2.53 5.28 1.39 2.55 1.05 3.25 5.39 1.57 2.45 32.69 2024 5.39 1.33 9.48 3.16 4.54 3.41 4.33 6.03 1.16 0.32 2.71 4.80 46.66

The PDO continues to operate independently of El Nino. The more Niña-like pattern which resulted in record heat in the East caused the PDO to fall and the AMO to rise. This is a result of the strong mid-latitude ridges warming the ocean surface below. The Atlantic City, NJ with the airport on the edge of the Pine Barrens just tied its all-time highest temperature. Most other years above 100° were La Ninas like 2011 or weaker El Niños or more neutral years. Maximum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1943-08-01 to 2026-07-06 1 106.0 2026-07-04 through 2026-07-04 - 106.0 1969-06-28 through 1969-06-28 2 105.0 2026-07-03 through 2026-07-03 - 105.0 2011-07-23 through 2011-07-23 - 105.0 2011-07-22 through 2011-07-22 3 104.0 1966-07-03 through 1966-07-03 4 103.0 2026-07-02 through 2026-07-02 - 103.0 2001-08-09 through 2001-08-09 5 102.0 2025-06-25 through 2025-06-25 - 102.0 2025-06-24 through 2025-06-24 - 102.0 2011-06-09 through 2011-06-09 - 102.0 2010-07-06 through 2010-07-06 - 102.0 1966-07-04 through 1966-07-04 - 102.0 1948-08-26 through 1948-08-26 6 101.0 2012-07-18 through 2012-07-18 - 101.0 2007-08-08 through 2007-08-08 - 101.0 1993-07-10 through 1993-07-10 7 100.0 2019-07-21 through 2019-07-21 - 100.0 2012-07-07 through 2012-07-07 - 100.0 2011-07-24 through 2011-07-24

When you understand what the models strengths and weaknesses are in the long range, then you can start to make sense of what they are trying to say. So we start with what we know about the models and work from that starting point. A model strength of the ECMWF is more accurate ENSO SST forecasts once past the spring predictability barrier. The ECMWF ENSO SST forecasts with previous super events were actually pretty good from July 2023 and 2015. So chances are increasing with each model update that this will be the strongest El Niño event on record using a metric like traditional ONI anomalies and absolute SSTs. The current SSTs are already ahead of all the previous super El Niños to this point. The long range temperature forecasts for both the 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 super El Niño events were significantly too cold. The 500 mb forecasts provided some skill but the location and the magnitude of the ridges were more expansive with weaker troughs. This has been a common theme regardless of ENSO over the last decade. The areas under the ridges had temperatures which greatly exceeded forecasts. Plus there were one month intervals in the 2023-2024 and 2015-2016 super El Niño events when the Indio-Pacific warm pool was strong enough to drive the forcing outside the typical El Niño regions. This will be the first time with two super El Niño events only three years apart. It will be both a big sensible weather event around the world and a climate event. Since each super El Niño event since 1997-1998 resulted in a big jump in global temperatures to a higher baseline. June set new all-time SST records for developing El Niños in all Nino regions except 1+2. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii All-Time June SST records in bold YR MON NINO1+2 ANOM NINO3 ANOM NINO4 ANOM NINO3.4 ANOM 2026 6 25.94 2.82 28.33 1.71 30.19 1.22 29.17 1.44 2023 6 25.63 2.50 27.88 1.26 29.55 0.58 28.57 0.84 2015 6 25.32 2.19 28.07 1.45 29.88 0.92 28.90 1.18 1997 6 26.12 3.00 28.13 1.51 29.23 0.26 28.82 1.09

It’s a good thing that there were no injuries with how close a call this was.

https://newjersey.news12.com/2026/07/06/roof-collapses-at-bjs-wholesale-club-in-ocean-township/128UzlO4BAdoGypMDmXBA6 Multiple crews are responding to a roof collapse at a BJ’s Wholesale Club in Ocean Township. The Monmouth County Sheriff’s Office said first responders are on scene at the store on Route 35 in the Oakhurst section of Ocean Township. Officials are asking people to stay clear of the area so emergency crews can respond safely. The collapse happened around 11:30 a.m. Multiple mutual aid crews from surrounding towns were also called to the scene. Law enforcement officials told News 12 that there were no injuries reported. Police said all 27 staff members who were in the building at the time are accounted for and safe. All of the customers who were in BJ's at the time of the collapse are also safe, police said. According to Ocean Township Police Chief Michael Sorrentino and Monmouth County Sheriff Shaun Golden, approximately 20% of the rear of the building has collapsed. Officials believe the damage was caused by the weight of the water from the heavy rain that fell. Authorities are also urging drivers to avoid Route 35 because of severe flooding in the area. This remains a developing story.