bluewave

We may not get a clean translation of any of the specific MJO 7 composite to start December since the models are showing more of a split forcing pattern. Notice the forcing lingering near the Maritime Continent at the same time there is forcing over the Western Hemisphere. So the current forecast has more of blended look between competing influences. Forcing near the Maritime Continent tends to enhance the Southeast ridge and lead to a faster Pacific Jet.

You are really lucky to be living in such a beautiful region. The stronger winds and lack of ideal radiational cooling there are also a function of the warmer air masses in nearby Canada. Since really cold Arctic air masses usually begin with strong cold air advection followed by a few nights of high pressure and calm clear nights behind the Arctic fronts leading to the great radiational cooling. We haven’t been getting this cold pattern in the Northeast with Canada so warm. The Northeast needs good cold pooling near Hudson Bay which has become more rare over time. The airport station that was established in June 1998. It’s in a uniquely cold area with excellent cold air drainage. So it can be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than the village. But that microclimate is still a good proxy since it is currently experiencing its 2nd longest streak not dropping to -30 or colder. The #1 longest streak was several years ago. Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= -30 for SARANAC LAKE ADIRONDACK REGIONAL AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1998-06-06 1 1103 2019-01-14 through 2022-01-20 2 1018 2023-02-05 through 2025-11-18 3 524 2000-10-31 through 2002-04-07 4 460 2007-03-08 through 2008-06-09 5 399 2011-01-25 through 2012-02-27 6 353 2016-06-30 through 2017-06-17 7 341 2004-02-21 through 2005-01-26 8 329 2012-03-01 through 2013-01-23 9 326 2013-02-21 through 2014-01-12 - 326 2010-01-12 through 2010-12-03 https://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/story/21443/20130218/why-lake-clear-is-so-very-cold Feb 18, 2013 — The village of Saranac Lake has a reputation for cold. During the winter, it's frequently the coldest spot on the North Country weather map, sometimes the coldest in the lower 48 states. Overnight or early morning temperatures in January can hit 20 and sometimes 30 degrees below zero Fahrenheit. That kind of cold is has brought the community a fair share of publicity over the years, but technically, that publicity should go to another community located about five miles outside of Saranac Lake: the hamlet of Lake Clear. Watch the nightly forecast from WPTZ weatherman Tom Messner and you'll find Saranac Lake is often the coldest spot on the map. But that's actually not Saranac Lake's temperature. The reading Messner and other forecasters are giving is recorded at the National Weather Service automated weather station at the Adirondack Regional Airport in Lake Clear. It's typically much colder there than it is in a short distance away in the village of Saranac Lake - sometimes as much as 10 to 15 degrees colder. Enterprise Sometimes the airport temperature is significantly colder than it is just a mile-and-a-half down the road in the hamlet of Lake Clear, where Bob Callaghan lives. The same morning in mid-January that the airport weather station hit 31 below, Callaghan said he had minus 21 at his house. "The thermometer in the car definitely registers colder when we get in the area of the airport," Callaghan said. "Sometimes it's 10 degrees difference." Why is it so much colder near the airport? What strange weather phenomenon is at work here? Dave Werner started asking that question a few years ago. Werner lives in Malone and is a cooperative observer for the National Weather Service. "Every day I'd compare my readings with all of upstate New York and Vermont," he said. "And it was so interesting to me that Saranac Lake [Lake Clear] was so much colder than every other place." In 2008, Werner contacted the weather service's Burlington office and got an explanation. "It's called cold air drainage," Werner said. "The bowl-shaped terrain around the Lake Clear airport is such that cold air settles or drains into the airport area, giving it significantly colder readings than are found in the village of Saranac Lake." John Goff is a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Burlington. He says Lake Clear is higher up, "and it's an open area, an open kind of clear area at the top of a hill where the cool air can kind of just pool." For people who live and work in Lake Clear, the bitter cold winter temperatures brought on by this microclimate are just a fact of life. Deb Gauthier is the Lake Clear postmaster: "It was minus 31 yesterday. When I went out at lunch time it was minus 21. You don't go out with wet hair, and you bundle up. We live with it." Surprisingly, the arctic temperatures cause few headaches at the airport, according to its manager Corey Hurwitch. "Just our equipment sometimes starting up is a little more difficult in the morning," he said.

Record number of days this year and month with maximum wind gusts at or above 40 mph across the area by a wide margin due to all the storms racing by to our north. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=140&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&syear=1900&sday=1101&eday=1117&varname=max_wind_gust&w=aoa&thres=40&year=2025&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Another issue is how warm Canada has been especially since May 2023. The coldest temperatures for both NYC and Saranac Lake during the 2020s occurred back on 2-4-23. While it was one the warmest winters on record across the Northeast, there was still a decent cold pool near Hudson Bay in February available for that brief Arctic outbreak. That was the only time during the 2020s that Saranac Lake dropped to -33° and NYC to 3°. Data for February 4, 2023 through February 4, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. DANNEMORA COOP -39 HIGHMARKET 2W COOP -35 Saranac Lake Area ThreadEx -33 SARANAC LAKE ADIRONDACK REGIONAL AP WBAN -33 WATERTOWN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -33 GOUVERNEUR 3 NW COOP -31 THERESA 4NW COOP -29 LAKE PLACID 2 S COOP -29 COLTON 2 N COOP -29 MORRISVILLE 6 SW COOP -28 MASSENA INTL AP WBAN -28 Newcomb Area ThreadEx -27 BOONVILLE 4 SSW COOP -27 NEWCOMB COOP -27 WATERTOWN COOP -27 LOWVILLE COOP -26 MALONE COOP -26 INDIAN LAKE 2SW COOP -25 GLOVERSVILLE 7NW (PECK LAKE) COOP -24 Glens Falls Area ThreadEx -24 GLENS FALLS/FLOYD BENNETT MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN -24 SCHROON LAKE NEW YORK RAWS -23 TRENTON FALLS COOP -23 Plattsburgh Area ThreadEx -22 PLATTSBURGH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -22 SHERBURNE NEW YORK RAWS -20 CONKLINGVILLE DAM COOP -20 OGDENSBURG 4 NE COOP -20 SHERBURNE COOP -19 BUSKIRK COOP -19 ROME GRIFFISS AIRFIELD WBAN -18 SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW COOP -17 MECKLENBURG 4SW COOP -17 COOPERSTOWN COOP -16 MEXICO 2SW COOP -16 WHITEHALL COOP -16 LANSING MANOR COOP -16 DELHI 2 SE COOP -15 CAMDEN COOP -15 SCHOHARIE COOP -14 CALLICOON CENTER COOP -14 WARSAW 6 SW COOP -13 BINGHAMTON (GREATER AP) WBAN -13 ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -13 FULTON OSWEGO COUNTY AP WBAN -13 SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP WBAN -13 Albany Area ThreadEx -13 Binghamton Area ThreadEx -13 Syracuse Area ThreadEx -13 ALCOVE DAM COOP -12 ITHACA CORNELL UNIV COOP -12 NORWICH COOP -12 PULASKI COOP -12 WALTON 2 COOP -12 FREEVILLE 1 NE COOP -11 BATAVIA WBAN -11 WYOMING 3W COOP -11 ITHACA 13 E WBAN -11 LIBERTY 1 NE COOP -10 OLEAN COOP -10 EAST SIDNEY COOP -10 HEMLOCK COOP -10 CARMEL 4N COOP -10 MILLBROOK 3 W WBAN -10 MONTICELLO SULLIVAN WBAN -9 ANGELICA COOP -9 AURORA RESEARCH FARM COOP -9 Oswego Area ThreadEx -9 BREWERTON LOCK 23 COOP -9 OSWEGO WBAN -9 PENN YAN AIRPORT WBAN -9 HORNELL ALMOND DAM COOP -8 ALFRED COOP -8 AUBURN COOP -8 FREDERICK DOUGLASS GREATER ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -8 HONEOYE COOP -8 Rochester Area ThreadEx -8 MOHONK LAKE COOP -7 GENEVA RESEARCH FARM COOP -7 CANANDAIGUA 3 S COOP -7 AVON COOP -7 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx -7 GENESEE CO ICAO -7 WELLSVILLE MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -7 POUGHKEEPSIE/HUDSON VALLEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN -7 WHITNEY POINT DAM COOP -6 CORNING COOP -6 ELMIRA CORNING REGIONAL AP WBAN -6 LITTLE VALLEY COOP -6 FRANKLINVILLE COOP -6 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS -6 MOUNT MORRIS 2W COOP -6 VICTOR 2NW COOP -6 COLDEN 1W COOP -6 ELMIRA COOP -5 DANSVILLE COOP -5 WELLSVILLE COOP -5 GANG MILLS NEW YORK RAWS -5 WALES COOP -5 MACEDON LOCK E30 COOP -5 SODUS 1W COOP -5 BROCKPORT COOP -5 FULTON COOP -5 WAVERLY COOP -5 DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN -4 SHRUB OAK COOP -4 PORT JERVIS COOP -4 MATTITUCK COOP -4 WEBSTER 2 NE COOP -4 MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN -3 CATTARAUGUS 3W COOP -3 WEST POINT COOP -2 ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP -2 ALBION COOP -2 PERRYSBURG COOP -2 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -1 ALLEGANY STATE PARK COOP -1 WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 0 BUFFALO NIAGARA INTERNATIONAL AIRPOR WBAN 0 NORTH TONAWANDA COOP 0 MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 0 Buffalo Area ThreadEx 0 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 1 SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 3 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 3

The main issue in recent years with MJO forecasts in general has been the record warm SSTs over the tropical WPAC to around the Maritime Continent stalling convection there. So even if the RMM charts show the MJO going into phase 8, the VP charts will often have convection lingering over the WPAC. Our last clean MJO 8 was back in January 2022. Recent MJO 8 passages on the RMM charts didn’t match the classic MJO VP composites. Since the RMM charts did show a phase 8 but convection lingered near the Maritime Continent. Plus another issue has been the convective forcing stalling in 6-7 before going into the circle or only a very low amplitude MJO 8. So it’s better to monitor the velocity potential charts along with the RMM charts to get a complete picture of the convective forcing.

That was really my only time in Long Beach when a .50 of rain with thunder and low 40s ever transitioned into greater than a 6” snowstorm.

That was the greatest comeback winter on record for multiple reasons. First, 01-02 was essentially a year without a winter. 3.5” of snow and a 41.5° average winter temperature. Second, the Christmas Day storm started with heavy thunderstorms and low 40s during the morning. Then my only 8” Christmas Day snowstorm in the evening for the greatest Christmas Day comeback of all-time. So a winter average of 31.2” and close to 50” of snow on the season.

The only Southeast ridge component that really matters is on the day of the storms like last winter. Even if a Southeast ridge isn’t showing in the means, if a storm is tracking through the Great Lakes we will get the Southeast ridge to flex for a day before the storm cuts to our west or hugs the I-78 to I-84 corridor. Long range ensembles never show this since they are too smoothed out in the long range and have trouble seeing the individual shortwaves. We really haven’t seen a gradient pattern work closer to NYC in a long time due to this for more than light snows.

Yeah, but that isn’t really cold for those areas either. Remember, the lows in the UHI zones are proportional to the ones outside the urban areas. Since you aren’t going to get very cold with radiational cooling if the airmass isn’t that cold to begin with. Even places which great radiational cooling like Saranac Lake have only dropped to 19° by November 16th. This is the 2nd warmest minimum on record through 11-16 at the airport. Time Series Summary for SARANAC LAKE ADIRONDACK REGIONAL AP, NY Warmest lows 9-1 to 11-16 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2006-11-16 21 1 2 2025-11-16 19 0 3 2016-11-16 18 0 - 1998-11-16 18 0 5 2014-11-16 17 0 6 2010-11-16 16 0 - 2000-11-16 16 1 8 2021-11-16 15 0 9 2024-11-16 13 0 10 2011-11-16 12 0 - 2009-11-16 12 0 12 2008-11-16 11 0 - 2005-11-16 11 1 14 2015-11-16 10 0

Yeah, most of the snow north of the South Shore on radar remained aloft for hours with the subzero dewpoints and strong high pressure.

March 2019 was the last time that March was more like winter than spring month for us. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.2 6.2 2019 10.4 10.4 2018 11.6 11.6 2017 9.7 9.7 2016 0.9 0.9 2015 18.6 18.6 2014 0.1 0.1 2013 7.3 7.3 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 1.0 1.0 2010 T T 2009 8.3 8.3 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T

My all-time favorite ride from Suffolk into Nassau was PD2 in 2003. Left Holbrook that Sunday evening with just cold and overcast conditions. Quickly found developing moderate snow once down to Sunrise HWY near Bayshore. Then heavy snow and blowing snow by the time we crossed the Nassau line. There was over 4” OTG by the time we got back to Long Beach with blowing and drifting snow. That had to be the slowest progression north that we ever had of heavy snow from the South Shore to the North Shore in a KU. You could watch the heavy snow on radar just south of JFK during the afternoon take until later in the evening to approach the Long Island Sound.

This could be a case of the potential wave reflection helping to anchor the Aleutian ridge too far west leading to a trough out West and Southeast ridge into early December.

Maybe if you are right on the water like in Long Beach. But ISP is enough distance from the water that they can radiate fairly well. I radiate very well here and I am closer to the water than ISP. How cold any given location gets during radiational cooling relative to their local benchmarks is more a function of how cold the overall airmass is.

Islip doesn’t get hard freezes this time of year down to 28° with strong enough winds off the ocean anyway. It usually occurs with offshore flow or radiational cooling. So it’s more a reflection of the lack of cold across North America this fall.