bluewave

We began to dry out shortly after the super El Nino in 2023-2024 during the fall. The warmer climate requires more water than 50 years ago due to increased evaporation rates. One of the areas that needs more research are these expanding 500mb ridges that get stuck in place for weeks to months. So we get regions with record drought under the ridges which are bounded by record flooding like we are currently seeing in Texas. The more erratic precipitation patterns are a real challenge for the agricultural and landscaping fields. Since long range precipitation forecasts beyond a week or two aren’t the greatest. Trying to figure out where your local area will end up between the wet and dry extremes isn’t the easiest to navigate.

NYC needs to pick up 2.77” by the end of July to have their first average to above precipitation month since May 2025. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=NYC&product=CLM&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026 2.70 2.60 3.60 2.48 3.05 3.39 1.83 M M M M M 19.65 2025 0.61 2.60 5.52 3.25 6.58 2.46 4.03 2.21 2.76 4.08 2.09 3.38 39.57 2024 5.28 2.05 9.06 3.47 4.11 1.71 4.20 7.02 1.58 0.01 3.35 4.53 46.37

The rapid expansion of the record heat and drought in Canada during the 2020s along with how remote the forests are makes this a very challenging issue with no quick fixes.

It probably helped that the Southeast had much colder winters back in that era.

Yeah, at least the 100°+ heat has really been front-loaded during the 2020s. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for HARRISON, NJ May-September Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 92 98 101 97 91 101 2020 87 96 98 97 91 98 2021 93 101 100 99 90 101 2022 96 98 102 101 92 102 2023 89 93 97 92 96 97 2024 88 100 101 100 86 101 2025 88 103 102 95 90 103 2026 100 97 106 M M 106 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 for HARRISON, NJ May-September Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0 1 2 0 0 3 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 2021 0 1 1 0 0 2 2022 0 0 3 1 0 4 2023 0 0 0 0 0 0 2024 0 1 1 1 0 3 2025 0 3 3 0 0 6 2026 1 0 3 M M 4

1997 -1998 would be a case of the warmest departures for NYC occurring in January and February. The actual February average temperature was the warmest monthly temperature of the winter. Dec…38.2°….+2.0 Jan…40.0°…..+8.6° Feb…..40.6°….+7.0° 2023-2024 had the warmest departure in December and the 2nd warmest in February. Dec…44.6°…..+5.5° Jan….37.0°……+3.3° Feb….40.1°……+4.2° 2015-2016 was the most extreme front-loaded super El Niño for warmth with +13.3 in December. Dec….50.8°…..+13.3° Jan…..34.5°….+1.9° Feb…..37.7°……+2.4°

Parts of the East had their lowest snowfall of the 1800s that winter. The big story during the 1877-1878 super El Niño was the warmth in the Upper Midwest. It’s an example how really strong El Niños can sometimes have their warmest departures in February. While we don’t have the 1841-1870 climate normals for MSP, I used the earliest available 30 year period. The departures for them that winter would have been like if December 2015 had run through February 2016 in the Northeast with no pattern reversal. MSP 1877-1878 DEC….+14.5 JAN…..+9.8 FEB……+15.8 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Minneapolis-St Paul Area, MN (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 19.3 12.0 15.7 15.6 Max 33.8 1877 25.9 1880 31.9 1877 1872-1873 6.0 5.4 12.8 8.1 1873-1874 17.6 12.2 12.6 14.1 1874-1875 17.2 -3.4 -2.6 3.7 1875-1876 24.7 15.7 15.9 18.8 1876-1877 8.3 8.6 31.9 16.3 1877-1878 33.8 21.8 31.5 29.0 1878-1879 19.1 16.1 12.7 16.0 1879-1880 11.5 25.9 19.6 19.0 1880-1881 13.2 7.9 17.1 12.7 1881-1882 29.0 19.0 30.4 26.1 1882-1883 15.0 0.8 12.1 9.3 1883-1884 19.7 8.8 12.9 13.8 1884-1885 14.8 4.4 11.3 10.2 1885-1886 21.0 3.7 14.9 13.2 1886-1887 7.3 0.7 9.4 5.8 1887-1888 17.4 -0.4 13.1 10.0 1888-1889 25.2 20.7 10.6 18.8 1889-1890 28.8 10.6 19.2 19.5 1890-1891 24.4 21.6 11.8 19.3 1891-1892 30.1 13.5 22.9 22.2 1892-1893 16.8 7.3 12.0 12.0 1893-1894 14.0 12.3 15.7 14.0 1894-1895 28.1 7.0 12.0 15.7 1895-1896 22.5 16.8 22.3 20.5 1896-1897 24.4 10.6 20.0 18.3 1897-1898 15.3 23.0 20.6 19.6 1898-1899 14.1 13.7 7.8 11.9 1899-1900 21.4 21.3 8.6 17.1 1900-1901 21.0 15.2 12.3 16.2 1901-1902 15.9 18.7 18.2 17.6

The variability we have been getting into mid-July is more a function of the mid-latitude wave pattern doing its own thing relative to the tropics through mid-July with the strong -PDO +AMO summer 2020s background pattern. It’s a first for the developing super El Niño composite including 2023, 2015, 1997, 1982, and 1972. The current forcing from 150E to 30W is more impressive than both 2015 and 1997 combined. This doesn’t rule out intervals of IO to MC forcing into the winter. But it could be an early sign than the -PDO +AMO mid-latitude enhanced ridge pattern could overlap with the super El Niño composite going into the winter.

Looks like the heat shifts to Western CONUS heading into late July with more comfortable temperatures here.

This summer is following the 2020s theme of top 10 warmth from June 1st to July 15th. This has allowed several of the warm spots around the region to record 20+ days reaching 90°. Harrison is in 2nd place for the most 90° days by July 16th. Time Series Summary for NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE, NJ Warmest June 1st to 15th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-07-15 76.1 0 2 2010-07-15 75.5 0 3 2026-07-15 74.9 0 4 2025-07-15 74.4 0 5 2013-07-15 74.3 0 - 2008-07-15 74.3 0 6 1994-07-15 74.2 0 7 2021-07-15 74.0 0 8 2020-07-15 73.8 0 9 2005-07-15 73.7 0 10 2012-07-15 73.4 0 Time Series Summary for POUGHKEEPSIE/HUDSON VALLEY REGIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-07-15 73.5 0 2 2025-07-15 73.3 0 3 2005-07-15 72.8 1 4 2020-07-15 72.4 0 5 2026-07-15 72.2 0 - 2013-07-15 72.2 0 6 1949-07-15 72.1 0 7 1973-07-15 71.9 0 8 2010-07-15 71.8 1 9 2016-07-15 71.7 0 10 2021-07-15 71.6 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-07-15 73.8 0 2 1995-07-15 73.6 32 3 2025-07-15 73.5 0 4 2010-07-15 73.4 1 5 1966-07-15 73.2 0 6 1999-07-15 72.7 2 7 2026-07-15 72.6 0 8 2013-07-15 72.2 0 9 1994-07-15 72.0 1 10 2008-07-15 71.8 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-07-15 74.1 0 2 2010-07-15 74.0 0 3 2024-07-15 73.7 0 - 1999-07-15 73.7 0 4 1966-07-15 73.2 0 5 1994-07-15 73.1 0 6 2026-07-15 72.8 0 - 2013-07-15 72.8 0 7 2020-07-15 72.6 0 - 2008-07-15 72.6 0 8 2019-07-15 72.3 0 - 2014-07-15 72.3 0 9 2011-07-15 72.2 0 10 1993-07-15 72.0 0 Data for January 1, 2026 through July 16, 2026 #90° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. ESTELL MANOR COOP 23 HARRISON COOP 23 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 21 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 21 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 21 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 20 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 20 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 20 Newark Area ThreadEx 20 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 20 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ Most 90° days through July 16th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-07-16 24 0 2 2026-07-16 23 1 - 2010-07-16 23 17 3 2021-07-16 21 0 - 2018-07-16 21 0 4 2012-07-16 20 19 - 2002-07-16 20 5

This could be the first event that is still a super El Niño into March using Nino 3.4

Yeah, that area is closer to the wildfires. Probably a new record for them. From the study below it had the AQI in NYC getting above 480 back in June 2023. https://www.rmets.org/metmatters/worst-air-quality-world-wildfire-smog-smothers-new-york

The maps haven’t updated yet to include the wildfires in Ontario that started on July 13th. Mark Parrington ‪@mparrington.bsky.social‬ Follow Analysis of 2026 Canada #wildfire emissions up to 9 July with the #CopernicusAtmosphere GFAS dataset shows more typical onset and magnitude following the previous three extreme years. Fires have been burning across the country from NWT to Newfoundland. @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int 10:19 AM · Jul 10, 2026 Everybody can reply 16 reposts 1 quote 29 likes 1 save 2 17 29 ‪Mark Parrington‬ ‪@mparrington.bsky.social‬ · 5d Total estimated wildfire emissions from NWT are currently similar to 2023 (&2014) so far with half of the summer still to come. Although at much smaller scale in terms of emissions, fires in southern regions of Nunavut are already at the highest level for the territory in the 24-year GFAS dataset. 1 2