bluewave

The warming during March has prevented several stations like EWR, NYC, and LGA from having another 10”+ snowstorm since 1993. March Maximum 3-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1843-05-01 to 2026-02-08 19.0 1888-03-12 through 1888-03-14 0 18.3 1956-03-17 through 1956-03-19 0 18.2 1956-03-18 through 1956-03-20 0 14.8 1958-03-20 through 1958-03-22 0 14.8 1958-03-19 through 1958-03-21 0 13.9 1960-03-03 through 1960-03-05 0 13.9 1960-03-02 through 1960-03-04 0 12.7 1993-03-13 through 1993-03-15 0 12.7 1993-03-12 through 1993-03-14 0 12.7 1956-03-19 through 1956-03-21 0 12.5 1960-03-01 through 1960-03-03 0 12.1 1941-03-08 through 1941-03-10 0 12.1 1941-03-07 through 1941-03-09 0 12.0 1941-03-06 through 1941-03-08 0 12.0 1917-03-02 through 1917-03-04 0 12.0 1852-03-17 through 1852-03-19 0 12.0 1852-03-16 through 1852-03-18 0 12.0 1852-03-15 through 1852-03-17 0 11.9 1993-03-11 through 1993-03-13 0 11.5 1896-03-15 through 1896-03-17 0 11.5 1896-03-14 through 1896-03-16 0 11.2 1956-03-16 through 1956-03-18 0 11.0 1867-03-17 through 1867-03-19 0 11.0 1867-03-16 through 1867-03-18 0 11.0 1867-03-15 through 1867-03-17 0 10.5 1861-03-19 through 1861-03-21 0 10.5 1851-03-07 through 1851-03-09 0 10.5 1851-03-06 through 1851-03-08 0 10.1 1917-03-03 through 1917-03-05 0 9.5 1958-03-18 through 1958-03-20 0

The forcing shifting east of the Dateline in late January allowing the STJ to become more dominant for a week put most of the major stations close to the coast near or over 25” which is a great outcome for this 2020s climate. The long range guidance sustains the present forcing west of the Dateline into mid-March. So it looks like more of a split flow or Northern Stream dominant storm track pattern which could allow for a smaller or maybe even moderate snowfall event before the end of the season. But probably not a STJ dominant pattern that can produce another widespread 10”+ benchmark NESIS event near the coast. Hoping the spots that are still under 25” can get just enough so they can make it to 25”+. CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 34.4 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 29.8 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 28.6 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 25.3 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 24.5

We lost the snowy pattern back in late January. December was very unusual in that it was the first time we had two 4-8” clippers over such a short stretch for the month. It was the perfect 500mb pattern for maxing out the Northern Stream snowfall potential. That pattern shifted in January which opened the door to our first widespread benchmark 10”+ snowstorm since 2022 as the forcing shifted east of the Dateline allowing the STJ to become active for a week. The only time our area had multiple 10”+ snowstorms under 7 days apart was in February 1994. So that 2nd event which brought record snows to the Carolinas statistically would have been tough to pull off since we need more time for NESIS snowstorm patterns to reload here. While we could have more accumulating snow before the season ends, this faster split flow regime probably won’t be able produce another widespread 10”+ benchmark event near the coast here.

It’s par for the course after the 1995-1996 winter for consecutive 10”+ snowfall months to be followed by one under 10”. Very difficult to go 3 in a row in the this area. Snowy patterns have been difficult to sustain for more than a month or two around here. These are all the winters at ISP with 10”+ Decembers. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY 10”+ months bolded Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2009-2010 0.0 25.3 6.4 21.7 0.4 0.0 53.8 2002-2003 1.0 16.0 2.6 26.3 3.7 5.0 54.6 2003-2004 0.0 15.5 19.1 1.1 5.7 0.0 41.4 2010-2011 T 14.9 34.4 3.9 2.1 T 55.3 1995-1996 3.0 13.3 20.2 19.0 12.0 9.6 77.1 2025-2026 T 12.5 14.9 1.2 M M 28.6 1969-1970 T 12.0 7.0 7.0 1.0 T 27.0 1975-1976 T 11.0 7.8 7.5 3.9 0.0 30.2 1963-1964 T 11.0 11.7 16.0 1.0 0.0 39.7 2000-2001 0.0 10.8 9.2 8.6 10.3 T 38.9 2008-2009 T 10.4 8.9 3.3 13.6 T 36.2 1988-1989 0.0 10.4 4.4 1.2 3.0 T 19.0

It’s interesting that the last top 10 coldest temperature for Boston in 2023 was during one of its warmest winters. Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Lowest Minimum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1933-1934 -18 0 2 1942-1943 -14 0 - 1917-1918 -14 0 3 1881-1882 -13 0 4 1956-1957 -12 0 - 1883-1884 -12 0 5 1913-1914 -11 0 - 1895-1896 -11 4 - 1875-1876 -11 0 6 2022-2023 -10 0 - 1885-1886 -10 0 - 1884-1885 -10 0 7 2015-2016 -9 0 8 1919-1920 -8 0 - 1902-1903 -8 0 - 1872-1873 -8 0 9 2003-2004 -7 0 - 1980-1981 -7 0 - 1906-1907 -7 0 - 1893-1894 -7 8 10 1923-1924 -6 0 - 1903-1904 -6 0 - 1894-1895 -6 8 - 1887-1888 -6 0 - 1877-1878 -6 0 Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Warmest Winters Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2001-2002 37.8 0 2 2019-2020 37.7 0 3 2015-2016 37.5 0 4 2011-2012 37.1 0 5 2022-2023 36.7 0 6 1932-1933 36.6 0 7 2023-2024 36.4 0 8 2016-2017 35.6 0 9 1990-1991 35.4 0 - 1931-1932 35.4 0 10 1936-1937 35.2 0 - 1912-1913 35.2 0

Wednesday looks our first chance at ending the under 40° day streak at some spots.

For Newark, NJ this was the coldest 16 day period for average temperatures since 2017-2018. This was the coldest 16 day period at Islip since the late 1970s but 5.3° warmer. At White Plains,NY this was the coldest 16 day period since 2017-2018. For Sussex NJ, it was also the coldest 16 day run since 2015. The coldest on record there was 1967-1968 and 1979. Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Since 1951 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 15.0 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-20 0 2 15.4 1979-02-04 through 1979-02-19 0 3 15.6 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-21 0 4 15.8 1961-01-19 through 1961-02-03 0 5 15.9 1979-02-03 through 1979-02-18 0 6 16.4 1982-01-08 through 1982-01-23 0 7 16.5 1961-01-20 through 1961-02-04 0 8 16.5 1982-01-10 through 1982-01-25 0 9 16.7 1982-01-09 through 1982-01-24 0 10 16.8 1961-01-18 through 1961-02-02 0 11 16.9 1981-01-03 through 1981-01-18 0 - 16.9 1979-02-07 through 1979-02-22 0 12 17.0 1982-01-07 through 1982-01-22 0 13 17.1 1979-02-02 through 1979-02-17 0 14 17.3 1980-12-31 through 1981-01-15 0 15 17.3 1981-01-02 through 1981-01-17 0 - 17.3 1961-01-21 through 1961-02-05 0 16 17.5 1982-01-11 through 1982-01-26 0 17 17.6 1980-12-30 through 1981-01-14 0 18 17.7 1981-01-01 through 1981-01-16 0 19 17.9 1979-02-08 through 1979-02-23 0 20 18.1 1979-02-01 through 1979-02-16 0 21 18.2 1981-01-04 through 1981-01-19 0 - 18.2 1977-01-16 through 1977-01-31 0 22 18.4 1977-01-08 through 1977-01-23 0 - 18.4 1961-01-22 through 1961-02-06 0 23 18.4 1982-01-12 through 1982-01-27 0 - 18.4 1961-01-17 through 1961-02-01 0 24 18.4 1982-01-06 through 1982-01-21 0 - 18.4 1977-01-09 through 1977-01-24 0 25 18.6 1977-01-17 through 1977-02-01 0 26 18.6 1980-12-29 through 1981-01-13 0 - 18.6 1977-01-11 through 1977-01-26 0 27 18.8 1977-01-07 through 1977-01-22 0 28 18.8 1977-01-15 through 1977-01-30 0 29 18.9 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-24 0 - 18.9 1977-01-10 through 1977-01-25 0 30 19.0 1977-01-12 through 1977-01-27 0 31 19.2 1979-01-31 through 1979-02-15 0 32 19.3 1977-01-14 through 1977-01-29 0 - 19.3 1977-01-06 through 1977-01-21 0 33 19.4 1967-12-29 through 1968-01-13 0 34 19.4 1982-01-05 through 1982-01-20 0 35 19.5 1961-01-16 through 1961-01-31 0 36 19.5 1961-01-23 through 1961-02-07 0 37 19.6 1977-01-05 through 1977-01-20 0 38 19.6 1968-01-01 through 1968-01-16 0 39 19.6 1982-01-13 through 1982-01-28 0 40 19.7 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10 0 41 19.7 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09 0 - 19.7 1985-01-08 through 1985-01-23 0 42 19.8 2015-02-13 through 2015-02-28 0 - 19.8 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-14 0 43 19.8 2004-01-14 through 2004-01-29 0 44 19.8 1977-01-13 through 1977-01-28 0 45 19.8 2004-01-10 through 2004-01-25 0 - 19.8 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-17 0 46 19.9 2005-01-17 through 2005-02-01 0 - 19.9 2005-01-16 through 2005-01-31 0 47 19.9 1985-01-09 through 1985-01-24 0 48 20.0 2005-01-15 through 2005-01-30 0 - 20.0 1980-12-28 through 1981-01-12 0 - 20.0 1970-01-08 through 1970-01-23 0 49 20.0 1977-01-18 through 1977-02-02 0 - 20.0 1977-01-04 through 1977-01-19 0 50 20.0 1981-01-05 through 1981-01-20 0 51 20.1 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 - 20.1 2017-12-24 through 2018-01-08 0 - 20.1 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-15 0 52 20.1 2015-02-12 through 2015-02-27 0 - 20.1 1967-12-28 through 1968-01-12 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 12.7 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-20 0 2 13.2 1979-02-04 through 1979-02-19 0 3 13.3 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-21 0 4 13.8 1979-02-03 through 1979-02-18 0 5 14.6 1979-02-07 through 1979-02-22 0 6 15.0 1979-02-02 through 1979-02-17 0 7 15.8 1979-02-08 through 1979-02-23 0 8 16.0 1967-12-29 through 1968-01-13 0 9 16.2 1979-02-01 through 1979-02-16 0 10 16.4 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-14 0 11 16.6 1968-01-01 through 1968-01-16 0 12 16.7 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-17 0 13 16.8 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-15 0 14 16.9 1967-12-28 through 1968-01-12 0 15 16.9 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-24 0 16 17.4 1979-01-31 through 1979-02-15 0 17 17.5 1967-12-27 through 1968-01-11 0 18 17.7 1968-01-03 through 1968-01-18 0 19 18.0 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 20 18.2 1981-01-03 through 1981-01-18 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 9.3 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-20 0 2 9.7 1979-02-04 through 1979-02-19 0 3 10.3 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-21 0 - 10.3 1979-02-03 through 1979-02-18 0 4 10.7 1961-01-19 through 1961-02-03 0 5 11.3 1961-01-20 through 1961-02-04 0 6 11.4 1979-02-02 through 1979-02-17 0 7 11.8 1961-01-18 through 1961-02-02 0 8 11.9 1979-02-07 through 1979-02-22 0 9 11.9 1961-01-21 through 1961-02-05 0 10 12.5 1979-02-01 through 1979-02-16 0 11 12.7 1982-01-08 through 1982-01-23 0 12 12.8 1982-01-10 through 1982-01-25 0 13 12.8 1982-01-09 through 1982-01-24 0 14 12.9 1961-01-22 through 1961-02-06 0 15 13.2 1979-02-08 through 1979-02-23 0 16 13.3 1982-01-07 through 1982-01-22 0 17 13.5 1961-01-17 through 1961-02-01 0 18 13.6 1982-01-11 through 1982-01-26 0 19 13.6 1979-01-31 through 1979-02-15 0 20 13.9 1961-01-23 through 1961-02-07 0 21 14.3 1982-01-12 through 1982-01-27 0 22 14.4 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-24 0 23 14.6 1982-01-06 through 1982-01-21 0 24 14.7 1961-01-24 through 1961-02-08 0 25 14.8 1961-01-16 through 1961-01-31 0 26 14.9 1979-01-30 through 1979-02-14 0 27 15.2 1982-01-13 through 1982-01-28 0 - 15.2 1977-01-16 through 1977-01-31 0 28 15.4 1977-01-08 through 1977-01-23 0 29 15.5 1977-01-09 through 1977-01-24 0 30 15.6 1977-01-15 through 1977-01-30 0 31 15.6 1977-01-17 through 1977-02-01 0 32 15.7 2015-02-13 through 2015-02-28 0 33 15.8 1977-01-11 through 1977-01-26 0 34 15.8 1961-01-15 through 1961-01-30 0 35 16.0 1977-01-10 through 1977-01-25 0 36 16.1 2015-02-14 through 2015-03-01 0 - 16.1 1977-01-07 through 1977-01-22 0 - 16.1 1961-01-25 through 1961-02-09 0 37 16.2 1977-01-12 through 1977-01-27 0 38 16.2 1977-01-14 through 1977-01-29 0 39 16.3 2005-01-17 through 2005-02-01 0 40 16.3 2015-02-12 through 2015-02-27 0 41 16.3 2005-01-16 through 2005-01-31 0 - 16.3 2005-01-15 through 2005-01-30 0 42 16.4 1982-01-14 through 1982-01-29 0 - 16.4 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-17 0 - 16.4 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-14 0 43 16.4 1979-02-10 through 1979-02-25 0 44 16.4 1977-01-06 through 1977-01-21 0 45 16.5 1977-01-05 through 1977-01-20 0 46 16.6 2015-02-11 through 2015-02-26 0 47 16.7 1977-01-04 through 1977-01-19 0 48 16.8 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-10 0 - 16.8 2004-01-10 through 2004-01-25 0 - 16.8 1994-01-06 through 1994-01-21 0 49 16.8 2005-01-18 through 2005-02-02 0 50 16.8 1977-01-13 through 1977-01-28 0 51 16.9 2015-02-15 through 2015-03-02 0 - 16.9 2004-01-14 through 2004-01-29 0 - 16.9 1982-01-15 through 1982-01-30 0 - 16.9 1977-01-18 through 1977-02-02 0 52 16.9 2004-01-09 through 2004-01-24 0 - 16.9 1979-01-29 through 1979-02-13 0 53 16.9 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-09 0 54 17.0 1968-01-01 through 1968-01-16 0 - 17.0 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-15 0 55 17.0 1967-12-29 through 1968-01-13 0 56 17.0 1994-01-07 through 1994-01-22 0 - 17.0 1968-01-03 through 1968-01-18 0 57 17.1 1977-01-03 through 1977-01-18 0 58 17.1 2017-12-24 through 2018-01-08 0 59 17.1 1994-01-08 through 1994-01-23 0 60 17.2 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 61 17.2 2015-02-10 through 2015-02-25 0 - 17.2 2005-01-14 through 2005-01-29 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 12.5 2015-02-13 through 2015-02-28 0 2 12.6 2005-01-18 through 2005-02-02 0 3 12.6 2005-01-17 through 2005-02-01 0 4 12.8 2015-02-14 through 2015-03-01 0 5 12.9 2005-01-16 through 2005-01-31 0 6 13.1 2015-02-12 through 2015-02-27 0 7 13.1 2005-01-15 through 2005-01-30 0 8 13.5 2005-01-19 through 2005-02-03 0 9 13.6 2015-02-11 through 2015-02-26 0 10 14.1 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-08 0 Minimum 16-Day Mean Avg Temperature for SUSSEX 1 NW, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 6.2 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-14 0 2 6.5 1961-01-20 through 1961-02-04 0 3 6.7 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-21 0 4 6.8 1961-01-21 through 1961-02-05 0 5 6.9 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-17 0 - 6.9 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-15 0 6 7.1 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-20 0

The higher ratios helped us out this winter with our snows since we have been continuing with this drier pattern since the fall of 2024.

While the temperatures will begin to moderate in the East, the Northeast looks like it will experience a slower warm up relative to other areas. It also appears the drier pattern will continue over the next week. So mostly weaker sheared out systems in the near term with the very fast flow.

NYC had no trouble dropping to 3° since the winds stayed up throughout this Arctic outbreak. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=knyc

That was a much colder 15 day period than we just had. Minimum 15-Day Mean Avg Temperature for Islip Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 12.0 1979-02-06 through 1979-02-20 0 2 12.2 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-19 0 3 12.9 1979-02-07 through 1979-02-21 0 4 12.9 1979-02-04 through 1979-02-18 0 5 14.4 1979-02-03 through 1979-02-17 0 6 14.4 1979-02-08 through 1979-02-22 0 7 15.1 1967-12-30 through 1968-01-13 0 8 15.2 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-23 0 9 15.7 1979-02-02 through 1979-02-16 0 10 15.8 1967-12-29 through 1968-01-12 0 11 16.0 1967-12-31 through 1968-01-14 0 12 16.4 1979-02-01 through 1979-02-15 0 13 16.4 1968-01-02 through 1968-01-16 0 - 16.4 1968-01-01 through 1968-01-15 0 14 17.0 1968-01-03 through 1968-01-17 0 15 17.1 1968-01-04 through 1968-01-18 0 16 17.1 1967-12-28 through 1968-01-11 0 17 17.2 1979-02-10 through 1979-02-24 0 18 17.6 1979-01-31 through 1979-02-14 0 19 17.7 1980-12-31 through 1981-01-14 0 20 17.8 1968-01-05 through 1968-01-19 0 21 17.9 1981-01-03 through 1981-01-17 0 22 18.0 1981-01-01 through 1981-01-15 0 23 18.0 1977-01-11 through 1977-01-25 0 24 18.1 1967-12-27 through 1968-01-10 0 25 18.1 1981-01-02 through 1981-01-16 0 26 18.2 2005-01-17 through 2005-01-31 0 27 18.2 2005-01-18 through 2005-02-01 0 - 18.2 1977-01-17 through 1977-01-31 0 28 18.3 1981-01-04 through 1981-01-18 0 29 18.3 1977-01-10 through 1977-01-24 0 30 18.4 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-09 0 - 18.4 1977-01-12 through 1977-01-26 0 31 18.4 1977-01-16 through 1977-01-30 0 - 18.4 1977-01-09 through 1977-01-23 0 32 18.5 2026-01-24 through 2026-02-07 0

December and January finished around the 7th warmest for the CONUS. So the warmth out West has been much more impressive than the cold in the East. The shorter duration last 2 to 3 weeks had top 5 and top 10 cold for climate districts in the East for January 20th to February 7th. But since the start of the winter the climate districts and the larger regions haven’t been nearly as cold. With how warm our winters have become since 2015-2016, it makes this winter feel much colder since people quickly normalize their recent 3-7 year climate. Right before the big global and national temperature jump in 2015-2016, the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest regions were able to sustain a top 10 cold pattern for the entire winter of 2013-2014. But that cold pool was less expansive than the late 1970s so nationally we couldn’t rank in the top 10 or even top 20. It finished 33rd coldest for the CONUS. We can see how the record warmth wasn’t present in the West that winter. Prior to the multiple temperature increases since the early 1980s, the entire CONUS had its last top 10 coldest winters from coast to coast with no extreme warmth anywhere in the CONUS in the late 1970s. With 1978-1979 ranking as the coldest winter since 1895 for the CONUS. https://bsky.app/profile/climatologist49.bsky.social/post/3me3dxzzakc23 social‬ Follow The Dec-Jan period was the 7th warmest for the Contiguous U.S. since 1940. 21.1% had the warmest Dec-Jan during that period. 0.0% had the coldest Dec-Jan; 0.0% had the 2nd coldest, 0.0% had the 3rd coldest, .... all the way thru the 13th coldest. 9:32 PM · Feb 4, 2026

Some spots could see an ice shove with the strong winds next few days.

This is our most impressive coverage of ice on the local waterways for the 2020s.

But I like to rank the actual temperatures and not the instances. This is why there are multiple ways of sorting. But if you like to rank the instances then you are free to. My focus is more in the weather element than how many ties there have been. Both ways are technically correct.