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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    The variability could also be filtered through the tendency for stronger subtropical to mid-latitude ridging and weaker troughs than we had in 1997-1998.
  2. bluewave
    Unfortunately, the dew points have been going up over the years here. Much more like what the Delmarva used to get 20-30 years ago and earlier. I was mostly commenting on the better rainfall this summer up here. Last summer was the 5th driest on record in my new area. So everything was brown. Much greener looking this summer. Are you still near the Poconos? Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jun through Aug Top 10 Driest Summers Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2000 3.02 65 2 1966 4.15 0 3 2022 4.29 0 4 2017 4.76 3 5 2025 4.99 5 6 1957 5.26 0 7 2016 5.28 0 8 1949 5.83 0 9 1965 5.93 0 10 2014 6.23 2
  3. bluewave
    I see what you are saying since this a much stronger more east based event than 2023-2024. So if any event can have Nino dominant forcing, then this one would be it. But we could avoid the IO and MC forcing we had in 2023-2024 and still reach a very warm outcome. 1997-1998 had a much deeper trough in the Southeast than 2023-2024 with more typical Nino dominant forcing. But the portions of the Southeast were warmer in 1997-1998 than in 2023-2024.
  4. bluewave
    A stronger east based event. Not necessarily the exact anomaly distribution. What do you mean by trending colder since we are just starting to get into the winter range now from earlier forecasts?
  5. bluewave
    This is an even stronger east based event than 1997-1998 was. The charts below are for what actually verified in C and F departures for that era. It was more extreme than general El Niño correlations.
  6. bluewave
    Super El Niños are significantly warmer than canonical El Niño patterns. None of the seasonal models were warm enough for either 2023-2024 or 2015-2016. This was probably the case also with whatever guidance they were using for the 1997-1998 winter forecast also. Correlations can give general ideas of which areas will be typically warmer or relatively cooler, but are not designed to handle extreme events like this one and the magnitudes of both 500 mb ridging and warmth.
  7. bluewave
    Looks to be defaulting to general El Nino correlations rather than an actual forecast for such an extreme event. We saw a similar forecast back in August 2024. The area to the north is warmer and Southeast cooler. Verification in °C
  8. bluewave
    The global pattern since the spring 2023 hasn’t been following any of our past analogs that we look at. The record breaking east based nature of the WWB going into the spring of 2023 was a first. Then the rapid global temperature jump by September 2023 without the traditional lag was new. Nino 1+2 warming in November 2024 followed by the impressive December +PNA didn’t match past La Ninas following such strong El Niños. Plus Nino 1+2 not fully returning to La Niña like it had in the past.
  9. bluewave
    The overall SST pattern and forecast SST pattern looks different from 1997-1998. That event had a much stronger cold pool in the WPAC into Nino 4 and 3.4 regions during the same time in 1998 than the current forecasts for early into mid 2027. Plus the La Ninas following 2015-2016 and 2023-2024 weren’t particularly strong. But we’ll see how things go since it’s still early in the process.
  10. bluewave
    Getting a lower end super El Niño and an all-time record breaker only three years apart is a first for our modern climate era.
  11. bluewave
    It’s certainly possible. These impressive WWBs keep increasing the warm pool and push it further east. The next one coming up will also break records.
  12. bluewave
    Latest Euro update has the Nino 3.4 ONI values peaking around +4. The Nino 1.2 ONI SSTs are now approaching +5. The longer range plumes have Nino 1+2 SSTs remaining elevated into next spring and summer.
  13. bluewave
    Yeah, that has been the seasonal PDO pattern during the 2020s. Steep summer decline followed by rebound back closer to neutral during the winter. Most summers the 500mb driving influence for the -PDO has been the ridge to the east of Japan. This July the ridge north of Hawaii had a much greater influence. More like what we saw during a more Niña-like July 2012. While the seasonal models have been missing this pattern since May, a rebound to a more +PNA and -EPO from August on is what they have been forecasting. So at least this element of the forecast may be in the early stages of developing. But we are still getting very strong ridge amplifications off the East Coast and in the Southwest in early August which appears to be the lingering La Niña -PDO 500 mb pattern influence. If even a small amount of-PDO influence at 500 mb continues into the winter, then it could mean a weaker or displaced Aleutian low complex relative to 1997-1998. The exact locations of the low pressure would help determine where the Nino ridge axis focuses over North America. Any -PDO 500 mb influence could result in higher heights located south or potentially east of 1998 which when the main 500 mb ridge was centered south of Hudson Bay.
  14. bluewave
    At least the PNA is trying to match the usual August El Niño expectations. But the other areas still have the lingering -PDO or La Niña influence. So maybe this is the start of the El Niño having of more 500 mb influence on our pattern.
  15. bluewave
    That’s why this forum is such a great resource. It allows people from all over to share ideas. Having all this information in one central location is very convenient.
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