bluewave

Non-linear climate shifts don’t care about small sample sizes. Non-linear climate dynamics combined with small sample sizes create severe statistical and predictive challenges because the Earth's system can cross critical thresholds or experience abrupt state shifts that short or sparse historical records fail to capture. [1, 2, 3]

I get it that they are struggling to measure how ENSO is changing as the climate warms. But the extreme nature of the flooding from the Southwest to the Southeast this fall would better be reflected by the higher values. Plus the warmth is greater than we have ever experienced for so early in a super El Niño event. The east based forcing has also been much stronger than we have ever seen so early in an event.

The extreme east based warm pool and forcing is better reflected by the actual ONI values. Nino 1+2 continues to set records along with the other regions. Now up to +5.4 on the week. The BOM RONI is at +6.04 in its Nino 2 region. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ 28OCT2026 26.7 5.4 29.5 4.4 30.2 3.4 30.1 1.4

Was like someone flipped a switch in March 2020. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2026 T T 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 6.0 6.0 2019 10.4 10.4 2018 11.6 11.6 2017 9.7 9.7 2016 0.9 0.9 2015 18.6 18.6 2014 0.1 0.1 2013 7.3 7.3 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 1.0 1.0 2010 T T Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 3.5 3.5 2009 8.3 8.3 2008 T T 2007 6.0 6.0 2006 1.3 1.3 2005 6.9 6.9 2004 4.8 4.8 2003 3.5 3.5 2002 T T 2001 3.8 3.8 2000 0.4 0.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 5.7 5.7 1999 4.5 4.5 1998 5.0 5.0 1997 1.7 1.7 1996 13.2 13.2 1995 T T 1994 8.1 8.1 1993 11.9 11.9 1992 9.4 9.4 1991 0.2 0.2 1990 3.1 3.1 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 3.0 3.0 1989 2.5 2.5 1988 T T 1987 1.9 1.9 1986 T T 1985 0.2 0.2 1984 11.9 11.9 1983 T T 1982 0.7 0.7 1981 8.6 8.6 1980 4.6 4.6

Very impressive jet extension across the entire North Pacific showing up in the ensembles around mid-November.

Major flooding in Florida during what is normally a dry month there with how extreme this east based forcing is becoming.

Yeah, off the charts warmth across the entire Northern Hemisphere and the Arctic leading to yet another daily global high temperature record.

Islip has a good chance of approaching or setting a new latest first freeze given the record warmth for November across North America. Latest First/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2022 03-30 (2022) 25 11-15 (2022) 29 229 1984 04-10 (1984) 30 11-15 (1984) 29 218 2016 04-10 (2016) 32 11-14 (2016) 32 217 1994 04-23 (1994) 32 11-12 (1994) 32 202 1981 04-22 (1981) 32 11-12 (1981) 31 203 1977 04-11 (1977) 32 11-12 (1977) 32 214 2005 04-17 (2005) 30 11-11 (2005) 30 207 2024 03-24 (2024) 30 11-10 (2024) 32 230 2017 03-30 (2017) 32 11-10 (2017) 26 224

Probably one of the warmest first weeks of November on record from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast. This makes sense given how extreme this El Niño event has become. Many areas will have 10+ departures for the November 1st through 7th. I just posted in the main El Niño thread how these early SSWs in the past have been associated with the November pattern persisting through DJF. We saw this with the early SSW last November 2025 followed by the general 500 mb pattern repeating and amplifying through DJF. So it will be interesting to see if we are getting an early winter preview this month.

This is only the 4th November with a major SSW event. So our sample size is very small. But all 3 previous events were associated with the general November 500mb North American pattern persisting and gaining amplitude through DJF. This was the case in 2025-2026, 1968-1969, and 1952-1953. Should this pattern repeat again in 2026-2027, then this very warm November El Niño pattern will become more amplified during DJF. It would be interesting to find the specific mechanism associated with the early SSW which lead to the November pattern persisting and amplifying through the entire winter in those years. Since it’s very rare for the November pattern to persist through DJF most years. A few seasonal forecasts last year basically repeated the November 2025 500mb pattern for DJF and it worked out for them. 19 November 1952 28 November 1968 28 November 2025

My focus has been on how much warmer each of the months since May have been exceeding the seasonal long range model forecasts and past developing super El Niño events. We all know with super El Niños is that it only takes one well timed storm with just enough cold to snow to make a late season snowstorm. 1997-1998 was a weaker east based event featuring no MC forcing. We had a very active East Coast storm track. Many lows hugged the East Coast. Several lows also tracked out near the Benchmark. But the very powerful EPAC vortex and STJ never really allowed high pressure to become established long enough over the Northeast. So places like NYC Metro saw many rainstorms and very little snow through DJF. It was actually March which delivered the best snow of the season. But March into even early April during the 1990s was much colder and snowier than the 2020s. March snowfall through the first 6 years of the 2020s is at record lows for any 6 year period on record. So in order to out some snow points on the board around NYC Metro, we would want to do it before we get into March which has become so much warmer this decade. Let’s see what happens. But we would need to get an improvement in the lack of cold high pressure in the Northeast vs 1997-1998 to see better snowfall results.

A very San Diego-like October in the Northeast.

During the end-Permian extinction about 252 million years ago, a supercontinent known as Pangaeaexperienced extreme climate disruptions driven by a 10-year mega El Niño episode. [1, 2] Key Details from Research Duration: Unlike modern El Niño events that typically last about a year, the warmest phases of this ancient event lasted up to 10 years continuously. [1, 2] The Panthalassic Ocean: This multi-year event originated in the vast Panthalassic Ocean (the super-ocean surrounding Pangaea), which was much larger than today's Pacific Ocean and absorbed immense amounts of heat. [1] Volcanic Forcing & CO2: Massive volcanic eruptions from the Siberian Traps doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) from roughly 410 to 860 ppm, collapsing ocean circulation and flattening temperature gradients across the super-ocean. [1] Mass Extinction Impact: The decade-long locking of severe drought, extreme heat, and raging wildfires devastated terrestrial forests, accelerated a global feedback loop, and contributed to the greatest mass extinction event in Earth's history. [1, 2, 3]

The 75° at JFK was the 3rd warmest for October 30th. Data for October 30 - JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1961-10-30 79 54 0.10 0.0 0 1950-10-30 77 55 M M M 2026-10-30 75 52 0.00 M M 2024-10-30 73 56 0.00 0.0 0 2016-10-30 73 56 0.15 0.0 0 1971-10-30 72 52 0.00 0.0 0 1994-10-30 70 51 0.00 0.0 0

At this point all we are discussing are potential futures. The antecedent CONUS May through October warmth and the intensity of the ENSO SST warming has been the highest on record for a developing super El Niño. So should this continue through the winter, it raises the potential for a warmer outcome averaged out through DJF than 1997-1998, 2015-2016, and 2023-2024. There also could be monthly variability in terms of the where the warmest departures and strongest 500 mb ridging become established which deviate in ways from those years. So month to month comparisons may vary from those years with the sum total of the DJF average 90 day warmth exceeding those years. We probably won’t know for sure the specific details outcome for each individual month until those months are underway. Also note that the seasonal forecast models from a month or more out significantly missed the magnitude of the warmth. Even forecasts issued during the first week of the month were often too cool. So we may continue to see the models play catch up on the warmth the closer in time we get to the forecast period.