bluewave

The ECMWF has been the closest but even it’s behind the curve on how east based this has become. The summer WWB pattern was stronger than 1997. So we have the historic warm pool now east of the Dateline.

MPO has been fairly warm for September so far at +3.3°. The warm minimums are driving the departures there like in other places. The min departure is +4.0° and the max +2.7. You guys have only dropped to 47° by 9-8 which is the 2nd warmest low on record by September 8th. NYC is actually doing a little better than you guys by falling to 61° which is 3rd warmest. So this isn’t a UHI issue since all locations are experiencing warm minimums regardless of rural or urban settings. Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) Warmest minimum temperature through 9-8 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2018-09-08 48 0 - 2002-09-08 48 0 2 2026-09-08 47 0 - 2015-09-08 47 0 - 2005-09-08 47 0 - 1996-09-08 47 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Warmest minimum temperature by September 8th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015-09-08 63 0 - 1980-09-08 63 0 2 2022-09-08 62 0 - 2020-09-08 62 0 - 2005-09-08 62 0 - 1995-09-08 62 0 3 2026-09-08 61 0 - 2023-09-08 61 0 - 2018-09-08 61 0 - 2016-09-08 61 0 - 2014-09-08 61 0 - 2012-09-08 61 0 - 1996-09-08 61 0 - 1966-09-08 61 0 - 1959-09-08 61 0

The CFS really missed how east based this event has become. The most recent update for this week is a record breaking +4.6 in Nino 1+2. The forecast for early September was only around +3.3.

Next 10 days look warmer than average with perhaps some cooler readings day 11-15.

The 0-300m ocean heat content is really off the charts.

Relatively cooler over the Midwest due to the record rainfall with the severe storms leading to the new tornado record for Illinois.

https://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/wxstation/perspectives/perspectives.html

Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social · 1d Nepal observed their warmest August nationwide, with the most anomalous region being the border with China/Tibet. It is hard to imagine that record warm temps did not hasten the bedrock/glacier collapse disaster.

New all-time weekly Nino 1+2 ONI at +4.6. This surpasses the previous record set back in June 1983 of +4.5. The highest 1997-1998 was able to achieve was only +4.0. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ 02SEP2026 25.3 4.6 13AUG1997 25.0 4.0 29JUN1983 27.0 4.5

Many spots in the Northeast are in the top 5 or 10 for 80° days through September 5th with the early start back in March.

Record number of 80° days away from the sea breeze in NJ through September 5th. Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ Most 80° days by September 5th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-09-05 101 0 2 2010-09-05 98 19 3 2015-09-05 97 0 4 2024-09-05 96 0 5 2022-09-05 93 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Most 80° days by September 5th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-09-05 104 0 2 2010-09-05 102 0 - 1993-09-05 102 0 - 1991-09-05 102 0 3 1994-09-05 101 0 4 2015-09-05 100 0 Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO, NJ Most 80° days by September 5th Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026-09-05 102 0 2 2024-09-05 99 0 3 2015-09-05 98 0 - 2010-09-05 98 1 - 2008-09-05 98 1 4 2011-09-05 97 0 5 2022-09-05 94 0

PA is in currently 2nd place for the most tornadoes behind 1998.

Looks like the OKX forecast zones moved up to 8th place so far for annual flash flood warnings while the PHI zones are in 1st place. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=44&plot=bar&opt=wfo&station=OKX&state=CT&fema=7&limit=no&c=single&phenomena=FF&significance=W&syear=1986&eyear=2026&s=jan1&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Models really missed how east based an event this has become. Not that big of a surprise since they can’t really can’t forecast the WWBs with that much precision beyond a week or two. This is the reason that Nino 3.4 leveled off in August and Nino 4 declined. It has resulted in the highest Nino 1+2 daily anomaly on record and it’s only early September.