bluewave

The maps haven’t updated yet to include the wildfires in Ontario that started on July 13th. Mark Parrington ‪@mparrington.bsky.social‬ Follow Analysis of 2026 Canada #wildfire emissions up to 9 July with the #CopernicusAtmosphere GFAS dataset shows more typical onset and magnitude following the previous three extreme years. Fires have been burning across the country from NWT to Newfoundland. @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social @ecmwf.int 10:19 AM · Jul 10, 2026 Everybody can reply 16 reposts 1 quote 29 likes 1 save 2 17 29 ‪Mark Parrington‬ ‪@mparrington.bsky.social‬ · 5d Total estimated wildfire emissions from NWT are currently similar to 2023 (&2014) so far with half of the summer still to come. Although at much smaller scale in terms of emissions, fires in southern regions of Nunavut are already at the highest level for the territory in the 24-year GFAS dataset. 1 2

Easily the worst air quality since moving to the CT Shoreline and thickest wildfire smoke that I have experienced since June 2023. Very strong smell of smoke and anyone with even the slightest respiratory issues should stay indoors. Your eyes and throat start to sting after being outside for more than a few minutes.

Really extreme to see parts of France go +10° F for the first half of summer using the warmest 1991-2020 climate normals. With a +4.2°C deviation from the already warmed 1991-2020 baseline, the tally for the first half of the meteorological summer is eye-opening. The 2026 anomaly forces us to scale up the graph, to the point of literally compressing 2003 (+2.8°C "only"). ➡️From the Center-West to Burgundy, we're seeing unprecedented values of +5 to +6°C. ➡️The rainfall deficit is just as stark, ranging from -30% in the north to -100% in the Var. The Center-West, where the vegetation is already completely scorched, hovers between -60 and -80%. ➡️Over the past month, nearly every day has been spent above the heatwave threshold, with only a 4-day pause at the start of July. ➡️The third heatwave should wrap up this weekend. But in the southwest, temperatures will remain heatwave-level (34 to 38°C) for an indeterminate period. Given the hot air mass south of Europe, we're far from safe from a 4th heatwave later in the summer. France is dry and scorched. After already surpassing 2003 with the hottest day ever observed in France, the year 2026 now exceeds the droughts of 1976 and 2022. The soil moisture index reaches its lowest level ever measured for a July 9. And the situation continues to worsen. A new hairdryer effect is expected in the central west starting Sunday. From the sky, France appears literally burned: parched meadows, defoliation of forests, summer crops in great distress (corn, soy, sunflower), and early winter harvests contribute to this color. As if that weren't enough, we have just broken the NATIONAL RECORD for the hottest night ever observed with 30.6°C in Céret in the Pyrénées-Orientales at the "coolest" point of the morning. Photo from the NAOO-21 / VIIRS satellite (true color).

While these long range subsurface charts from the CFS can lose skill, it’s impressive that the El Niño is still going strong in Nino 1+2 by March. The model is trying to show this taking time to weaken due to how strong it gets. The developing cold pool to the west isn’t as strong as 1998 was.

Unfortunately, the near surface smoke is forecast to get thicker later. https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRRsmoke/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_ncep_smoke_jet&domain=NYC-BOS&run_time=15+Jul+2026+-+06Z

That relaxation of the ridge and heat has been the pattern since May following these periods of record heat and ridging. If the ridge returns again in early August, then we’ll know the pattern is continuing. But if the trough can hold on, then it would look more like a traditional developing super El Niño mid-latitude summer pattern in the East. It would be nice to get an extended break from these periods of record warmth and ridging. The shear across the Caribbean with this record breaking super El Niño is more like what they see in December.

It would be interesting to see what is causing the delayed response this time in the mid-latitudes. Even by MJJ in 2023 with all that mid-latitude SST warmth and strong -PDO +AMO, the pattern was strongly El Niño in the mid-latitudes. While summer correlations are weaker with the larger El Niño grouping including weak and moderate, the developing super El Niño subset has been fairly strong. At least so far we are seeing something new from this one for MJJ.

Getting very close in Nino 1+2 now to 1997 with 2026 leading in all other areas. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ …….Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 08JUL2026 25.5 3.4 28.3 2.3 29.4 2.0 30.0 1.2 08JUL2015 24.7 2.5 27.8 1.8 28.7 1.3 29.8 1.0 09JUL1997 25.6 3.5 27.7 1.7 28.6 1.3 29.3 0.5

Yeah, I have been saying this for a while now. Once past the spring predictability barrier, the models like the Euro do a great job with ENSO SST plumes forecast. So the record breaking nature of this event isn’t in doubt. We can see the strong coupling with the atmospheric patterns in the tropics and the very high shear in the Caribbean. But the subtropics or mid-latitudes continue to do their own thing. It’s a very strong -PDO pattern north of the tropics rights now. If this mid-latitude pattern can continue to have some influence going into the winter, then the Aleutian low could split or end up in a different location than usual. It’s also possible the typical strong Nino ridge south of Hudson Bay could at least at times get displaced further to the south over the Eastern CONUS. This could mean that the heavily precipitation zones with the STJ may vary from the 1997-1998 locations like we saw in 2015-2016 and 2023-2024.

This is another example of how the models past 15 days really don’t have much skill other than general forecasts for ENSO SST plumes. Notice the locations of the ridges and troughs verifying are reversed from the seasonal forecast issued in May. Most of the time during the 2020s summers the long range models miss the strong -PDO and +AMO influence of these greatly expanded subtropical or mid-latitude ridges. July forecast issued in May Verification so far

In the old days with super El Niños, the strong low level westerlies would extend north from the tropics into the mid-latitudes like in 1997. During the 2020s, the subtropical or mid-latitude ridges have grown to record levels. So the westerly flow is much weaker with the high pressure dominating. The warm pool from Japan to north of Hawaii is allowed to continue leading to the persistent -PDO. This prevents the strong +PDO response that was typical in 1997 and 2015. This is also why we have see strong to record heat domes across the CONUS since May from time to time instead of the cooler typical El Niño pattern this time of year.

All-time record highs with this developing record 600 dm ridge. The 850 mb plume is forecast to set all-time warmest 850mb temperatures from Ontario into the Northeast. But the models have the 850 mb temperatures peaking at night. So they actually begin coming down a bit during Wednesday afternoon. The Euro and GFS both have 100°-103° at the warmest spots across the region Wednesday. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 506 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY... HERE IS A SUMMARY OF DAILY RECORDS AND ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN SO FAR TODAY, SUNDAY, JULY 12TH. DAILY RECORDS BROKEN SITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS BILLINGS 111 107 (2002) 1934 LIVINGSTON 105 103 (2002) 1948 MILES CITY 115 104 (1954) 1937 SHERIDAN 109 104 (2002) 1907 BAKER 110 103 (2006) 1998 ALL-TIME RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN SITE HIGH TEMP PREVIOUS ALL-TIME RECORD PERIOD OF RECORD BEGINS BILLINGS 111 108 (7/14/2002) 1934 LIVINGSTON 105 105 (8/5/1961) 1948 MILES CITY 115 111 (6/26/2012) 1937 SHERIDAN 109 107 (7/27/2021) 1907 BAKER 110 109 (7/25/2024) 1998 AN UPDATED SUMMARY OF DAILY AND ALL-TIME RECORDS WILL BE SENT AT THE END OF THE DAY IF NEEDED.