bluewave

All the years with 5 or more days reaching 95° or higher at JFK had strong ridging to our west over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. But it’s been a challenge getting this pattern in recent years due to the ridges in the West and east of New England. This leaves more of a trough to our west bending the flow SE to SW instead of SW to NW. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending annual number of 95° or warmer days 1 2010 10 0 2 1963 8 0 3 2002 7 0 - 1999 7 0 - 1983 7 0 4 2013 6 0 - 1949 6 0 5 2012 5 0 - 1966 5 0 - 1955 5 2

It seems like the record westerly flow since December is a result of the supercharged Northern Stream with storms racing through the Great Lakes. But the jet stream relaxes over the summer. So we would probably need to see where the ridge axis sets up. If it continues to be located more east of New England like recent summers, then the flow will become more onshore as the seasonal jet stream weakening progresses. But if the ridge axis builds more to our west into the Great Lakes, then the westerly flow will continue into the summer.

Right now it looks more like strong upwelling from the record westerly flow than a -AMO producing that cold blob to our east as the rest of the Atlantic is very warm.

It’s easier to get westerly winds during the winter than summer at JFK. So winter 50° days are increasing at a faster rate than summer 90° days. But NJ away from the sea breeze has seen an increase in both.

That graph was just JJA to focus on the summer.

The elongation of the subtropical ridge north to just east of New England has turned the flow more onshore at JFK. But the overall summer average high temperatures have been rising faster than the maximum high temperatures.So the rate of the average increase is faster than the increase in 90 days. This is due to the warmer minimums acting as a higher launch point for the afternoon highs. This results in the rate of 85° days increasing faster than the 90° days. Since the stronger afternoon sea breeze slows the rate of 90° days increasing faster increases. So two things can be true at the same time.

THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR APRIL 19 2025... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2025 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 87 302 PM 92 1976 64 23 55 MINIMUM 58 1242 AM 33 2001 45 13 44 2020 AVERAGE 73 55 18 50 PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.00 1.97 1978 0.13 -0.13 T MONTH TO DATE 1.85 2.42 -0.57 3.65 SINCE MAR 1 6.43 6.55 -0.12 11.64 SINCE JAN 1 9.71 12.95 -3.24 18.91 SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 0.0 4.1 1983 0.0 0.0 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 0.0 0.5 -0.5 0.0 SINCE MAR 1 0.0 6.1 -6.1 T SINCE JUL 1 13.6 31.5 -17.9 12.2 SNOW DEPTH 0 DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 0 11 -11 15 MONTH TO DATE 257 267 -10 205 SINCE MAR 1 772 964 -192 711 SINCE JUL 1 3987 4467 -480 3627 COOLING YESTERDAY 8 0 8 0 MONTH TO DATE 9 0 9 4 SINCE MAR 1 9 1 8 4 SINCE JAN 1 9 1 8 4 ................................................................... WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 30 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION SW (230) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 46 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION SW (240) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 14.2

Yeah, moving the ASOS under the trees in the 1990s has kept the 90° day count closer to 20. My guess is that if the ASOS was out in the open like before 1995, NYC would have had well over 40 days reaching 90° back in 2010 instead of only 37. So it’s the only site away from the immediate shore which has had a decrease in 90° days. The sea breeze at Newark has been slowing the rate of increase there relative to sites like Freehold-Marlboro which have avoided the sea breeze. Over 40 days reaching 90°has become the norm away from the sea breeze in NJ during the 2020s. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NJCLIMATE&station=NJTEWR&season=all&dir=above&var=high&threshold=90&year=1961&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Mid to upper 80s today for the warm spots with very steep lapse rates and gusts approaching 40 mph. But it will be a warm WSW wind instead of the cold NW winds we have recently been getting. So the strongest winds ahead of the front for a change instead of behind it.

Storms usually begin to get weaker after April 15th. I can remember the famous Tax Day Nor’easter in 2007 getting under 970 mb. That is about the deepest we have seen so late in the season. Pattern looks more Southeast Ridge dominant going forward keeping the rainy zone further to our west. So while the dry conditions have eased a bit, still no widespread soaker in sight which would completely end the drier conditions. My guess is that our summer forecast will come down to the wind direction again. If the flow is more onshore like recent summers, then NJ will get the warmest conditions. We would need the ridge east of New England to shift back west allowing more offshore flow. But that has been difficult in recent years. NJ has had 4 summers with near to over 40 days reaching 90° in the 2020s. So top 10 summers for 90s have been very consistent west of the Hudson away from the sea breeze influence. Data for January 1, 2024 through December 31, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 41 HARRISON COOP 41 CANOE BROOK COOP 37 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 35 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 33 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 33 Newark Area ThreadEx 33 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 31 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 31 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 30 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 30 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 30 Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 53 Newark Area ThreadEx 49 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 49 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 49 CANOE BROOK COOP 47 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 46 HARRISON COOP 44 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 43 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 43 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 42 ESTELL MANOR COOP 41 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 40 Data for January 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 43 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 41 Newark Area ThreadEx 41 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 41 HARRISON COOP 38 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 37 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 36 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 36 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 36 for January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 42 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 40 HARRISON COOP 39 CANOE BROOK COOP 37 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 37 ESTELL MANOR COOP 36

Starting to see the seasonal weakening of the jet stream so not as much wind or rain as the storms track through the Great Lakes.

This was expected due to the record lack of coupling this year.

Heading into a warmer and drier pattern to close out the month.

There was a sea breeze in July 1977 along the South Shore which kept JFK cooler. But the South Shore was warmer with the late August 1973 heatwave. Those were the two big 1970s heatwaves. Monthly Data for August 1973 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MINEOLA COOP 101 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 100 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 100 NJ PATERSON COOP 100 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 99 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 99 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 99 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 99 NJ CRANFORD COOP 98 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 98 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 98 NY WEST POINT COOP 98 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 98 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 97

That was in the old days before they put the ASOS under the trees in Central Park. Monthly Data for July 1977 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 103 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 102 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 102 NY WEST POINT COOP 101 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 101 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 101 NY MARYKNOLL COOP 100 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 100 NY SCARSDALE COOP 100 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 100 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 100 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 100 NJ CRANFORD COOP 100 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 100 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 100 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 100 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 99 NY SUFFERN COOP 99 CT DANBURY COOP 99 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 99 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 99 CT GROTON COOP 99 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 99 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 99 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 98 NY CARMEL COOP 98 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 98 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 97 NY MINEOLA COOP 97 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 97 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 97 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 97 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 97 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 97 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 96 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 96 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 95 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 95 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 94 NY GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 94 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 93 CT WESTBROOK COOP 93 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 93 NY MONTAUK COOP 93 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 91