bluewave

Some spots could see an ice shove with the strong winds next few days.

This is our most impressive coverage of ice on the local waterways for the 2020s.

But I like to rank the actual temperatures and not the instances. This is why there are multiple ways of sorting. But if you like to rank the instances then you are free to. My focus is more in the weather element than how many ties there have been. Both ways are technically correct.

Getting a top 10 coldest for a week to a month across a region or adjacent regions is impressive cold but is considered a shorter duration and smaller geographic footprint. My discussions have been focused on seasonal top 10 cold which spans the 3 winter months of December to February. This hasn’t happened on a national level since the 1970s. These shorter duration Arctic outbreaks ranking in the top 10 and over a smaller geographic region than the past have been a common feature of our climate in recent years. Think back to the regional cold records during February 2021. In the old days these regional monthly top 10s would extend to seasonal which hasn’t happened in recent years. Plus the magnitude of the warmth across the Plains in December 2021 was greater than the cold in February 2021. None of the cold records so far in the East rank as cold as the warm records in the West have for geographic extent, magnitude, or duration. Since the Northern Hemisphere cold pool is so much smaller than it used to be.This winter has been among the warmest on record for the Northern Hemisphere.

NYC had gone 15 days so far not reaching 40°. That is the 14th longest streak for NYC no matter how many years tied since we are ranking the number of days and not the individual years. With the coming cold next several days this will result in the longest streak in 20 years. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 40 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 35 1945-02-08 2 34 1886-02-08 3 33 1948-02-11 4 26 1879-01-17 5 25 1881-02-08 6 23 1940-01-13 - 23 1936-02-14 - 23 1885-02-09 7 22 1968-01-17 - 22 1924-02-25 - 22 1918-02-06 - 22 1912-02-15 - 22 1893-01-24 - 22 1883-01-17 - 22 1881-01-06 8 21 2004-02-03 - 21 2000-02-06 - 21 1978-02-16 - 21 1940-02-05 - 21 1901-02-15 - 21 1895-02-16 - 21 1877-01-06 9 20 1905-02-11 - 20 1902-02-22 - 20 1888-02-03 10 19 2003-02-01 - 19 1981-01-18 - 19 1977-01-09 11 18 1970-01-16 - 18 1914-02-25 - 18 1904-01-12 - 18 1887-01-12 12 17 2005-01-31 - 17 2001-01-05 - 17 1977-01-27 - 17 1966-02-07 - 17 1961-02-04 - 17 1948-01-08 - 17 1934-02-14 - 17 1918-01-11 - 17 1910-01-01 - 17 1875-01-21 13 16 2011-02-04 - 16 1963-12-25 - 16 1884-01-30 - 16 1870-03-09 14 15 2026-02-06 - 15 2018-01-08

The NWS at Upton uses dense rank sorting and doesn’t skip ranks following ties. I think this makes more sense since we are ranking the temperature and not the year. It’s more misleading in my opinion to skip ranks since it makes the rank more subjective when there are multiple ties.

I use dense rank sorting which doesn’t skip rank numbers. DENSE_RANK is a SQL window function that sorts data and assigns consecutive rankings to rows, ensuring no gaps in the sequence, even when ties occur. If multiple rows share a rank (e.g., two rows are ranked 1), the next rank is 2, not 3. It is essential for top-N analysis without skipping rank numbers. Key Aspects of DENSE_RANK: No Gaps: If two rows tie for rank 1, the next rank is 2, not 3. Ties: Identical values receive the same rank. Syntax: DENSE_RANK() OVER ([PARTITION BY <columns>] ORDER BY <columns>). Use Case: Ideal for top-N analysis where multiple rows might share the same top value, but you still want a continuous ranking order.

The Euro seasonal that was just released has a slightly cooler to average spring and summer in the Northeast. While these long range forecasts are often low skill, they do seem to do better heading into the summer than the winter. Would match the theme of stuck weather patterns in the 2020s as this would be a continuation of the pattern which developed last November. Sometimes developing El Niño summers aren’t as warm like we saw back in 2023.

We’ll see if the guidance is correct that we will finally end the under 40° streak by later next week as we are currently in 18th place. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 40 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 35 1945-01-05 through 1945-02-08 2 34 1886-01-06 through 1886-02-08 3 33 1948-01-10 through 1948-02-11 4 26 1878-12-23 through 1879-01-17 5 25 1881-01-15 through 1881-02-08 6 23 1939-12-22 through 1940-01-13 - 23 1936-01-23 through 1936-02-14 - 23 1885-01-18 through 1885-02-09 9 22 1967-12-27 through 1968-01-17 - 22 1924-02-04 through 1924-02-25 - 22 1918-01-16 through 1918-02-06 - 22 1912-01-25 through 1912-02-15 - 22 1893-01-03 through 1893-01-24 - 22 1882-12-27 through 1883-01-17 - 22 1880-12-16 through 1881-01-06 10 21 2004-01-14 through 2004-02-03 - 21 2000-01-17 through 2000-02-06 - 21 1978-01-27 through 1978-02-16 - 21 1940-01-16 through 1940-02-05 - 21 1901-01-26 through 1901-02-15 - 21 1895-01-27 through 1895-02-16 - 21 1876-12-17 through 1877-01-06 11 20 1905-01-23 through 1905-02-11 - 20 1902-02-03 through 1902-02-22 - 20 1888-01-15 through 1888-02-03 12 19 2003-01-14 through 2003-02-01 - 19 1980-12-31 through 1981-01-18 - 19 1976-12-22 through 1977-01-09 13 18 1969-12-30 through 1970-01-16 - 18 1914-02-08 through 1914-02-25 - 18 1903-12-26 through 1904-01-12 - 18 1886-12-26 through 1887-01-12 14 17 2005-01-15 through 2005-01-31 - 17 2000-12-20 through 2001-01-05 - 17 1977-01-11 through 1977-01-27 - 17 1966-01-22 through 1966-02-07 - 17 1961-01-19 through 1961-02-04 - 17 1947-12-23 through 1948-01-08 - 17 1934-01-29 through 1934-02-14 - 17 1917-12-26 through 1918-01-11 - 17 1909-12-16 through 1910-01-01 - 17 1875-01-05 through 1875-01-21 15 16 2011-01-20 through 2011-02-04 - 16 1963-12-10 through 1963-12-25 - 16 1884-01-15 through 1884-01-30 - 16 1870-02-22 through 1870-03-09 16 15 2017-12-25 through 2018-01-08 - 15 1989-12-16 through 1989-12-30 - 15 1982-01-08 through 1982-01-22 - 15 1980-01-24 through 1980-02-07 - 15 1979-02-05 through 1979-02-19 - 15 1978-01-10 through 1978-01-24 - 15 1969-12-14 through 1969-12-28 - 15 1960-02-29 through 1960-03-14 - 15 1910-01-03 through 1910-01-17 - 15 1874-01-29 through 1874-02-12 17 14 2007-01-29 through 2007-02-11 - 14 2003-02-05 through 2003-02-18 - 14 1958-02-07 through 1958-02-20 - 14 1945-12-11 through 1945-12-24 - 14 1938-01-09 through 1938-01-22 - 14 1929-01-24 through 1929-02-06 - 14 1897-01-23 through 1897-02-05 18 13 2026-01-23 through 2026-02-04

This was our 2nd winter in a row with the highest ranking CONUS snowfall occurring in the South. The common denominator between both winters has been overpowering 500 mb ridges in the Western U.S. and Canada. So the ridge-trough axis with this recent event was too far east. Last winter the ridge was located more in Canada. The difference this winter has been while we still have a dominant Northern Stream like last winter, we had a 7 day period where the Southern Stream was able to become more active as the forcing shifted east of the Dateline like January 2022. This allowed the one classic benchmark storm track for the first NESIS KU type event with widespread 10”+ for the Northeast since January 2022. The hope for next winter is the potential El Niño development will give us more than a one week window of opportunity for benchmark 10”+ snowstorms. Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for NEW BERN - COASTAL CAROLINA REGIONAL AIRPORT, NC Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 15.5 1965-01-31 0 2 13.0 2026-02-01 1 - 13.0 2026-01-31 0 - 13.0 1973-02-10 0 Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for New Orleans Area, LA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 8.0 2025-01-22 0 - 8.0 2025-01-21 1 2 2.7 1964-01-01 0 - 2.7 1963-12-31 0 3 2.0 1958-02-13 0 - 2.0 1958-02-12 0 Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall for Mobile Area, AL (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 7.5 2025-01-22 0 - 7.5 2025-01-21 0 2 6.0 1895-02-15 0 3 5.0 1881-01-25 0 - 5.0 1881-01-24 0

A very icy New Haven Harbor today. You can see the ice getting pushed up against the Pardee Seawall Park on the east shore. This is the most ice on the area waterways during the 2020s and will peak early next week. Ice shoves could become a concern in areas that get strong winds directly into the shore.

Heaviest snow in some spots since December 1989.

Much of North America is on track for a thaw heading into to mid-February following the Arctic outbreak in the Northeast this weekend.

That is one feat I never attempted back in my Long Beach days. I made it a rule to never go into the ocean when it when the SSTs were any cooler than the 60s. But knew a bunch of people who attended them.

Pretty impressive wind chills behind the Arctic front this weekend. The much stronger winds this time also mean that NYC has a shot an approaching 5°. The weaker winds during recent Arctic outbreaks couldn’t transport the coldest readings into the heat island and the seasonal low in NYC is 9°. Minimum Temperature Data for December 1, 2025 through February 4, 2026 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 11 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 10 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 9 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 9 NY ST. JAMES COOP 9 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 9 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 9