bluewave

An icy New Haven Harbor today looking west from the Pardee Seawall Park.

The closest 500 mb analog for December and January was 1958-1959. While it wasn’t an exact match for all the sensible weather, it was the closest 500 mb pattern to 2025-2026 since 1950. Pretty interesting that was also a rare late November SSW like we just had back in late November. https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html NOV 1958 30-Nov-58 **** **** **** E E

This will be our coldest December and January period for many across the area since 2010-2011 as the averages will decline further the next few days. Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-01-31 27.4 3 2025-01-31 28.5 0 2024-01-31 35.4 0 2023-01-31 35.4 0 2022-01-31 31.1 0 2021-01-31 31.3 0 2020-01-31 32.6 2 2019-01-31 30.4 0 2018-01-31 27.8 4 2017-01-31 32.2 0 2016-01-31 35.7 0 2015-01-31 29.1 0 2014-01-31 25.5 0 2013-01-31 32.3 0 2012-01-31 34.3 0 2011-01-31 24.7 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-01-31 30.7 3 2025-01-31 32.6 0 2024-01-31 38.3 0 2023-01-31 38.7 0 2022-01-31 35.4 0 2021-01-31 35.9 0 2020-01-31 36.7 0 2019-01-31 34.9 0 2018-01-31 31.0 0 2017-01-31 36.6 0 2016-01-31 39.9 0 2015-01-31 33.3 0 2014-01-31 30.5 0 2013-01-31 37.0 0 2012-01-31 37.7 0 2011-01-31 29.2 1 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-01-31 32.9 3 2025-01-31 34.7 0 2024-01-31 40.8 0 2023-01-31 41.0 0 2022-01-31 37.0 0 2021-01-31 37.0 0 2020-01-31 38.7 0 2019-01-31 36.3 0 2018-01-31 33.4 0 2017-01-31 38.2 0 2016-01-31 42.6 0 2015-01-31 35.2 0 2014-01-31 33.6 0 2013-01-31 38.3 0 2012-01-31 40.3 0 2011-01-31 31.2 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-01-31 30.1 3 2025-01-31 31.5 0 2024-01-31 37.2 0 2023-01-31 37.5 0 2022-01-31 33.0 1 2021-01-31 33.0 0 2020-01-31 35.5 3 2019-01-31 32.9 3 2018-01-31 29.5 0 2017-01-31 35.4 1 2016-01-31 38.6 0 2015-01-31 31.7 2 2014-01-31 29.4 0 2013-01-31 34.9 0 2012-01-31 37.0 0 2011-01-31 27.5 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-01-31 32.9 3 2025-01-31 33.5 0 2024-01-31 38.7 0 2023-01-31 39.0 0 2022-01-31 35.3 0 2021-01-31 35.0 0 2020-01-31 37.0 0 2019-01-31 34.6 0 2018-01-31 31.9 0 2017-01-31 36.4 0 2016-01-31 40.8 0 2015-01-31 34.1 0 2014-01-31 32.4 0 2013-01-31 36.8 0 2012-01-31 38.4 0 2011-01-31 29.3 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026-01-31 31.2 3 2025-01-31 32.9 0 2024-01-31 37.7 0 2023-01-31 38.0 0 2022-01-31 34.3 0 2021-01-31 35.3 0 2020-01-31 36.4 0 2019-01-31 34.4 0 2018-01-31 31.0 0 2017-01-31 37.3 0 2016-01-31 40.2 0 2015-01-31 33.4 0 2014-01-31 31.0 0 2013-01-31 36.2 0 2012-01-31 38.4 0 2011-01-31 29.0 0

One of the biggest temperature swings coming up for Florida. West Palm Beach just set their new all-time January high temperature of 90°. Current model forecasts have them potentially getting their first freeze this weekend since 2010. Southeast Florida... West Palm Beach Ptcldy Sunny Mocldy Ptcldy Sunny Sunny Sunny /67 47/69 56/71 55/68 33/54 34/59 41/66 /20 10/00 00/10 20/30 20/00 00/00 00/00 Time Series Summary for West Palm Beach Area, FL (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Maximum Monthly Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2026 90 4 2 1942 89 0 3 2020 88 0 - 1926 88 2 Time Series Summary for West Palm Beach Area, FL (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Lowest Minimum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1894-1895 24 0 2 1904-1905 26 0 3 1976-1977 27 0 4 1989-1990 28 0 - 1984-1985 28 0 - 1920-1921 28 5 - 1916-1917 28 0 - 1898-1899 28 0 5 1981-1982 29 0 - 1969-1970 29 0 - 1917-1918 29 0 6 1983-1984 30 0 - 1970-1971 30 0 - 1962-1963 30 0 - 1906-1907 30 0 7 1985-1986 31 0 - 1957-1958 31 0 - 1955-1956 31 0 - 1934-1935 31 0 - 1927-1928 31 0 - 1921-1922 31 0 - 1909-1910 31 0 - 1897-1898 31 0 8 2010-2011 32 0 - 2009-2010 32 0 - 1988-1989 32 0 - 1980-1981 32 0 - 1977-1978 32 0 - 1965-1966 32 0 - 1964-1965 32 0 - 1947-1948 32 0

Great video of the ice flows in the Hudson River.

Interesting stat from Brian B. Climatologist49 ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ Follow Newark Int Airport reported Heavy Snow and a temperature of 11F. This is the lowest temperature on record for them (1930-present) where they reported Heavy Snow. Previous record was 12F in 1932 and again in 2014. 12:23 PM · Jan 25, 2026 Everybody can

Very nice snow extent comeback for North America. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html

The unusually early SSW event leading to the disruption of SPV in late November was possibly caused by an interaction between the record low Arctic Sea ice near the Barents and Kara regions and the -QBO. This event seems to have caused key features of the November 500 mb pattern to lock in for the winter. It’s also unusual for some many elements of a November pattern to become amplified and persist into the winter. The current activation of the STJ and the recent largest snowstorm since January 2022 for spots in the Northeast is probably the result of the forcing finally shifting east of the Dateline. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025JD044403 one model, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, has a statistically significant equatorward shift in vortex latitude, deceleration of vortex winds, and increase in sudden stratospheric warmings. Its response is found to be highly state-dependent, significant only in the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Though we cannot comprehensively conclude why models simulate this range of responses, our analysis does highlight areas for consideration in future work to better constrain the stratospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss. We explore the role of ensemble size, resolution and basic state, including zonal-mean winds in the polar and midlatitude stratosphere and upper troposphere, as well as the QBO. https://alaskaclimate.substack.com/p/december-2025-arctic-climate-summary For the second December in a row, the Arctic-wide average sea ice extent was the lowest on record in all of the major sea ice analyses. In the National Snow and Ice Data Center analysis, the December 2025 average extent was 11.22 million km², which is about 15 percent lower than the late 20th century December average. The Barents Sea and Baffin Bay had the lowest December extent on record, and northeast of Svalbard the average pack ice edge was north of 81°N November 2025 and December into January 2026 500mb composites

Great to see our first 12”+ event since January 2022 at multiple locations including the official observations at Bridgeport and Islip. Bridgeport Airport 15.3 in 0700 AM 01/26 Official NWS Obs Islip Airport 13.0 in 0700 AM 01/26 Official NWS Obs

I don’t have a dedicated snowboard spot where I live for consistent measurements like the official airport OBS and COOP sites. I took 50 measurements in a nearby open baseball dirt field and hour ago away from any obstructions which averaged at 9”. The field had completely lost any snowpack from the last event. Closer to the fence line the average was 10-12” with a maximum peak of 15” right behind the long fence. In closer to the houses here my average is also 10-12”. So I can understand the variability in the official NWS OBS from urban to rural locations and between the public, CO-OP, and other readings. Prior to this weekend I measured 13” from the collection of smaller events with marginal temperatures at times.

I don’t have a dedicated snowboard spot where I live for consistent measurements like the official airport OBS and COOP sites. I took 50 measurements in a nearby open baseball dirt field and hour ago away from any obstructions which averaged at 9”. The field had completely lost any snowpack from the last event. Closer to the fence line the average was 10-12” with a maximum peak of 15” right behind the long fence. In closer to the houses here my average is also 10-12”. So I can understand the variability in the official NWS OBS from urban to rural locations and between the public, CO-OP, and other readings. Prior to this weekend I measured 13” from the collection of smaller events with marginal temperatures at times.

The record for NYC at or below 32° is 16 days and below 32° the same at 16 days in 1961. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature <= 32 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 16 1961-01-19 through 1961-02-03 2 15 1881-01-23 through 1881-02-06 3 14 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-08 4 13 2000-12-22 through 2001-01-03 - 13 1893-01-10 through 1893-01-22 5 12 2003-01-14 through 2003-01-25 - 12 1978-01-27 through 1978-02-07 - 12 1958-02-08 through 1958-02-19 - 12 1936-01-23 through 1936-02-03 6 11 1981-01-08 through 1981-01-18 - 11 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-19 - 11 1935-12-21 through 1935-12-31 - 11 1892-12-21 through 1892-12-31 7 10 1958-12-07 through 1958-12-16 - 10 1948-01-23 through 1948-02-01 - 10 1918-01-27 through 1918-02-05 - 10 1895-02-02 through 1895-02-11 - 10 1886-01-07 through 1886-01-16 - 10 1873-01-24 through 1873-02-02 8 9 2005-01-16 through 2005-01-24 - 9 2004-01-23 through 2004-01-31 - 9 1996-01-03 through 1996-01-11 - 9 1989-12-17 through 1989-12-25 - 9 1977-01-11 through 1977-01-19 - 9 1968-01-05 through 1968-01-13 - 9 1945-12-16 through 1945-12-24 - 9 1934-02-02 through 1934-02-10 - 9 1899-02-06 through 1899-02-14 - 9 1876-12-17 through 1876-12-25 9 8 1984-01-15 through 1984-01-22 - 8 1982-01-08 through 1982-01-15 - 8 1930-01-19 through 1930-01-26 - 8 1917-12-29 through 1918-01-05 - 8 1912-01-25 through 1912-02-01 - 8 1905-01-29 through 1905-02-05 - 8 1899-12-28 through 1900-01-04 - 8 1897-01-24 through 1897-01-31 - 8 1885-02-17 through 1885-02-24 - 8 1880-11-21 through 1880-11-28 - 8 1875-01-14 through 1875-01-21 10 7 2014-02-06 through 2014-02-12 - 7 2000-01-17 through 2000-01-23 - 7 1988-01-05 through 1988-01-11 - 7 1963-12-15 through 1963-12-21 - 7 1962-12-10 through 1962-12-16 - 7 1920-01-14 through 1920-01-20 - 7 1919-12-15 through 1919-12-21 - 7 1914-02-15 through 1914-02-21 - 7 1912-02-29 through 1912-03-06 - 7 1912-02-08 through 1912-02-14 - 7 1898-01-28 through 1898-02-03 - 7 1896-01-04 through 1896-01-10 - 7 1888-01-18 through 1888-01-24 - 7 1886-02-01 through 1886-02-07 - 7 1885-03-17 through 1885-03-23 - 7 1870-12-22 through 1870-12-28 Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 32 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 16 1961-01-19 through 1961-02-03 2 15 1881-01-23 through 1881-02-06 3 14 2017-12-26 through 2018-01-08 4 13 1893-01-10 through 1893-01-22 5 12 1978-01-27 through 1978-02-07 - 12 1936-01-23 through 1936-02-03 6 11 1979-02-09 through 1979-02-19 - 11 1958-02-09 through 1958-02-19 - 11 1935-12-21 through 1935-12-31 7 10 1958-12-07 through 1958-12-16 - 10 1895-02-02 through 1895-02-11 - 10 1892-12-21 through 1892-12-30 - 10 1886-01-07 through 1886-01-16 8 9 2005-01-16 through 2005-01-24 - 9 2004-01-23 through 2004-01-31 - 9 1996-01-03 through 1996-01-11 - 9 1977-01-11 through 1977-01-19 - 9 1968-01-05 through 1968-01-13 - 9 1945-12-16 through 1945-12-24 - 9 1899-02-06 through 1899-02-14 9 8 1982-01-08 through 1982-01-15 - 8 1917-12-29 through 1918-01-05 - 8 1905-01-29 through 1905-02-05 - 8 1897-01-24 through 1897-01-31 - 8 1885-02-17 through 1885-02-24 - 8 1875-01-14 through 1875-01-21 10 7 2000-01-17 through 2000-01-23 - 7 1963-12-15 through 1963-12-21 - 7 1920-01-14 through 1920-01-20 - 7 1919-12-15 through 1919-12-21 - 7 1918-01-30 through 1918-02-05 - 7 1912-02-08 through 1912-02-14 - 7 1899-12-28 through 1900-01-03 - 7 1888-01-18 through 1888-01-24 - 7 1886-02-01 through 1886-02-07 - 7 1885-03-17 through 1885-03-23 - 7 1876-12-19 through 1876-12-25 - 7 1873-01-24 through 1873-01-30

The initial event back in late November was possibly caused by an interaction between the record low Arctic Sea ice and the -QBO. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025JD044403 one model, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, has a statistically significant equatorward shift in vortex latitude, deceleration of vortex winds, and increase in sudden stratospheric warmings. Its response is found to be highly state-dependent, significant only in the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Though we cannot comprehensively conclude why models simulate this range of responses, our analysis does highlight areas for consideration in future work to better constrain the stratospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss. We explore the role of ensemble size, resolution and basic state, including zonal-mean winds in the polar and midlatitude stratosphere and upper troposphere, as well as the QBO.

The one of the earliest stratospheric polar vortex disruptions back in late November has been a big player this winter.

This has been one of the rare instances of significant aspects of the winter 500 mb pattern becoming established in November and carrying over into the winter.