bluewave

The record WWBs got going back in January which is pretty early for an El Niño leading to speculation early on that this one has pretty good potential if follow up WWBs become established next few months to keep the ball rolling so to speak.

The other thing is that we are starting to see more of these record breaking 500mb ridges even when ENSO isn’t as overwhelming. This winter was one of the rare weak La Niña winters like 1995-1996 with 500mb ridges over the Bering Sea, Baja California, and Greenland. Notice how much more overpowering the 500mb ridges were this winter leading to the record warmth out West producing the 2nd warmest winter on record for the CONUS.

Once we get near or above +2.0° on ONI with near a 28.5C Nino 3.4 SST, a warmer winter pretty much becomes baked in since the early 1980s. Snowfall is highly dependent on whether we get decent blocking or not. 1982-1983 was one of the milder winters of that era but we had the great February 1983 snowstorm with the blocking. The 1997-1998 was one of the warmest 1990s winters and we couldn’t really get decently positioned blocking. So the snowfall was disappointing as the Nino ridge build into the Northeast. Fast forward to 2015-2016 and the record MJO 5 for such a strong El Niño produced the ridiculous +13.3 December which was warmer than most Novembers in the Northeast. But once we got into January and February we got the historic NYC snowstorm and a nice follow up event a few weeks later. Also the first below 0° reading in NYC on Valentine’s Day since 1994. The Nino ridge near the Great Lakes during 2023-2024 was so overpowering that it was one of the warmest and least snowy winters on record for many. The one bright spot in February was the narrow band in NJ with the record STJ streak but it was part of a one week pattern which quickly shifted.

https://science.nasa.gov/earth/arctic-winter-sea-ice-2026/#:~:text=End of dialog window.,Flight Center in Greenbelt%2C Maryland. For the second consecutive year, winter sea ice in the Arctic reached a level that matches the lowest peak observed since satellite monitoring began in 1979. On March 15, Arctic sea ice extent reached 5.52 million square miles (14.29 million square kilometers), very close to the 2025 peak of 5.53 million square miles (14.31 million square kilometers). Scientists with NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado, Boulder, note that the two years are statistically tied. Along with the overall extent, researchers are also observing changes in ice thickness. “Based on what we’re seeing with NASA’s ICESat-2 satellite, much of the ice in the Arctic is thinner this year, especially in the Barents Sea northeast of Greenland.,” said Nathan Kurtz, chief of the Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “The Sea of Okhotsk that borders northern Japan and Russia also had relatively low ice this year — a region that naturally experiences significant year-to-year variability.” Scientists with NASA and NSIDC found that this winter’s peak Arctic ice coverage continues the long-term trend observed over the past several decades. This year, peak ice cover was below the average levels between 1981 and 2010 by roughly half a million square miles (about 1.3 million square kilometers). Sea ice extent is defined as the total area of the ocean with at least 15% ice concentration. The area of the Arctic Ocean covered in ice expands in the cold of winter. Although much of the sea ice melts in warmer months, some ice remains throughout the year. Recently, less new ice has been forming. As a result, less multi-year ice has accumulated. “A low year or two don’t necessarily mean much by themselves,” said NSIDC ice scientist Walt Meier. But viewed within the long‑term downward trend since 1979, Meier added, they contribute to the overall picture of change in Arctic sea ice throughout the seasons.

The Summer of 2012 which followed was the 3rd warmest on record for the CONUS.

They recently found out that was an error. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/107/1/BAMS-D-24-0313.1.xml The world record hottest near-surface air temperature of 134°F recorded at Greenland Ranch, Death Valley, California on 10 July 1913 is demonstrated to be approximately 14°F hotter than what likely occurred on that date. Using July data from non–Death Valley stations during 1923–2024, we compute a range of temperature lapse rates diagnosed from the differences between Greenland Ranch station and the average of higher-elevation stations’ maximum temperatures (TMAX) and elevation. The range of lapse rates from those 102 years of July data is then used to estimate Greenland Ranch temperatures during the early years (1911–22). The first 2 weeks of July 1913 are shown to be spuriously hot and other years at Greenland Ranch exhibit anomalous July temperature behavior as well. Despite the establishment of a U.S. Weather Bureau instrumented shelter at Greenland Ranch in 1911, based upon historical accounts, we believe some of the shelter readings in the early years were replaced with hotter values, possibly taken from the veranda of the ranch house using a thermometer of unknown provenance. As a result of these findings, we recommend that the 134°F world record status be rescinded and that many of the Greenland Ranch temperature reports during the early years be more closely evaluated for data quality.

The Hofstra student garden in Hempstead made it to 81°.

We should still be able use ERA 5 now for 500MB reanalysis dataset which first becomes available about 5 days after the month ends. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/

Will be interesting to see if the Euro April 5th release turns out to be as reliable as its El Niño forecast issued back in April 2023. https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2023-April-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

Yeah, looks like another warmer month coming up as the Western and Eastern ridges merge like we saw in March.

Yeah, we have been at daily record levels since the 23rd. https://bsky.app/profile/climatecasino.net/post/3mhv47nbqqk2j Earth's global 2m surface temperature just posted the hottest March 23rd on record, and likely the hottest March 23rd in the last 120,000+ years. 8:38 AM · Mar 25, 2026

80° warmth could make it onto Long Island to start April with the downsloping flow behind the front this afternoon.

Newark just missed the all-time March warmest minimum temperature by 1° yesterday. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar Highest Monthly Minimum Temperature Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1998 63 0 2 2026 62 0 - 1985 62 0 - 1910 62 0 3 1949 60 0 - 1945 60 0 4 2016 59 0 - 1851 59 0

Will be interesting to see the Euro seasonal Nino 3.4 forecast on April 5th once it initializes this event. Wouldn’t be surprised if it increases Nino 3.4 temperatures from the March 5th update. If we get these WWBs continuing and not reversing like we saw in June 2014, then this could be our first two events reaching at least +2.0 C on the ONI scale and around 28.57 C only three years apart. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt NDJ 2023 28.57 2.06 NDJ 2015 29.26 2.75 OND 1997 29.02 2.40 NDJ 1982 28.76 2.23 NDJ 1972 28.54 2.12

First back to back Marches with 2+ days reaching 80°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar 80° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1998 5 0 - 1945 5 0 2 1910 4 0 3 2026 3 1 4 2025 2 0 - 2016 2 0 - 1990 2 0 - 1977 2 0 - 1938 2 0 - 1921 2 0 5 2021 1 0 - 2020 1 0 - 2011 1 0 - 2007 1 0 - 1989 1 0 - 1986 1 0 - 1985 1 0 - 1962 1 0 - 1946 1 0 - 1908 1 0