BlizzardWx

Actually now that you say that I can see it. If you move 2014 east just a bit it matches up relatively ok.

Here is a comparison of the height anomalies for the fall so far, obviously it won't change that much over the next couple days as we round out November. I forgot to normalize the scales as a full disclosure, but it wouldn't have made that much difference in the plotted colors. Anyway, pretty interesting how persistent and widespread ridging has been compared to other El Ninos. There has been a notable lack of a STJ for most of the fall as well as incredibly broad ridging extending from the Great Basin through much of Canada. No other year matches well, though if you skewed the anomalies more positive I suppose 1997 could sort of work. Below is the next month on the EPS weeklies versus the other El Nino years I included. Interesting to see that the +PNA/-NAO pattern showed up in only a few others cases. I thought the best matches were 2002 and 1963, with 2009 not being a bad match either. You could make an argument for a few other years, but they don't have the ridge axis in the right place which I view as essential. I suppose all this is to say, I like what I am seeing at this point.

This is a good set up for my area. Might see our first snow or ice in this pattern if it works out right.

I mean you aren't wrong, but I'd still maintain its a different problem. For the same reason that our struggle to predict the weather in 2 weeks is basically irrelevant to forecasting long term climate change. In one you are trying to nail down the exact state of the atmosphere and the other you are trying to forecast the average state of it and smooth out the noise.

I'd say that's not a fair comparison. Monthly averages factoring in peak ENSO forcing are more likely to verify than snapshot forecasts 2-3 weeks out in many cases. But as others noted, 18/19 was much weaker and therefore you would assume the predictability would be lower too.

Is there any historical dataset of NAO/AO (etc) that has a sub monthly resolution? If you know of one, please pass it along. Thanks.

Thanks, I will take a look! Also, excellent work on your outlook.

I've been reading all the back and forth for the last few months trying to improve my knowledge on seasonal forecasting matters. Thank you for all the great work everyone! I moved to the Tulsa area about a year ago. I'd been in the west before that my whole life. My question is, do any of you have any thoughts on how the ideal combination of indices for winter weather varies between here and the east coast? It seems obvious to me that there is a lot of overlap, but that my best snow patterns aren't going to be the same ones where the northeast scores big. Anyway, let me know if you have any thoughts. Thanks

Pretty interesting GFS runs today with a moisture tap from the tropical system down there into Arizona and then again with the dying remnants of another system hitting the same area. Could be quite wet in some locations that traditionally get almost no rain in June.

Anybody have any general thoughts for west-central Texas (Abilene) for around June 3-9? I'll be there then and would love to see some fun stuff and possibly do some chasing if its close.

Possible, I just know they were out for me yesterday so maybe you need to clear your cache or something.

The weeklies on wxbell come out Mon and Thurs for the record. Good luck with your chase though!

An easier way around that is to look at dynamic tropopause maps. The tropopause elevation depends on the airmass and so it tends to be higher in the tropics and lower in the polar regions. At any rate the jet stream (whether polar or subtropical) will show up on this map. That said the subtropical jet is normally higher but its not always at the same altitude. Even so it will normally be visible on the 200 or 300mb maps.

It's interesting that when you look at the large scale pattern that the NPAC Ridge that we have been dealing with for the last few years is still there (although its a bit weaker now it will strengthen towards next week), but the enhanced southerly jet has obviously become important. General pattern looks to remain locked in with a rex block setting up over the west next week. Probably will continue to see a strong jet into the southern plains, and so I would expect at a minimum, more severe weather than average for the next 2-3 weeks.

I will be transferring to the University of Utah to get my meteorology degree. They aren't the top school out there but they have a good program. Also Penn State has one of the best programs in the country I've been told.