SchaumburgStormer

The past several seasons demonstrate that it will flip, and it will flip hard. From 60s to 90s. Although I consider this spring to have been better than the past several years

Model agreement is off the charts. There is no way this will not happen. Buried.

Lots of “confirmed tornado” wording in the warnings downstate with very few reports.

Warning advising confirmed tornado over Niantic.

Looks to be winding up again right over the interstate

Looking to take a straight shot at the southern end of Decatur, Mt Zion, Elwin area on that oath

At this point I am simply excited at the possibility of getting enough rain to rinse the dust off the truck.

Downed wires and structure/grass fires everywhere

You may ask yourself, where is my warm front?

Some spinning over Decatur as well at the moment

What once looked like a good chance for rain is quickly disappearing. Getting rather dusty around here

Yeah, shot from the hip a bit this morning without really digging too much into the guidance before I had to be in court. Sim precip maps really don't give a great idea in terms of actual QPF with wider intervals between frames.

If we are going to start making comparisons to decade defining events, that is probably a good policy. A lot of things need to fall right (or wrong depending on your opinion) to get something like that again. Now, out west on the other hand

Outside of the midweek potential, definitely has the warm and dry look in the extended. Making 2012 comparisons is laughable.

So what if they change the criteria for April or May. You still need an impact to warrant a headline of any type, and there is nothing noteworthy with regards to travel impacts with this storm. Using the “varied criteria” logic, we would need a “rain advisory” for the spring to alert people of the impact of non-frozen precipitation... I’m not saying that snow in late April, especially at that latitude, isn’t noteworthy; but to say some slop that accumulates on nothing but grass need an advisory is a bit of a stretch.

This was the first tornado (well, funnel at that point) I ever witnessed when I was 8 years old. Was in Decatur and told my mom that a cloud behind our car was “pointy and spinning” we ducked into a gas station to hide in the bathroom and I watched a large concrete ashtray/garbage can spin end over end down the middle of the street as some trees and power poles broke off. We were on the NE side of Decatur, just in the area where the tornado lifted. Sparked quite the enduring weather fascination.

zzzzz... Lots of hype for a cold FROPA. Seasonal trend of over amped medium range signals shall not be denied.

I think we see maybe a couple spotty 5” reports, but this screams a 2-3” of slop in the “jackpot”kind of deal. But with that being said, mid-late April storms have shocked me before... see my earlier photo of the 4/14/19 8 incher.

Still overdone I think. This once had potential, but its going to be a non-event.

10:1 is garbage and not happening. Cut 40-50% off those totals right off the bat.

Models have backed off the nonsensical snow totals. Nuisance dust incoming, with a couple of really shitty days before bouncing back up to seasonable. Nice of this shit to hit us mid-week and leave the weekend alone.

I ended up with 8” from that storm. It was unreal.

Thinking a DAB in mby followed by a hard freeze

A 1 degree C anomaly on a 372 hour forecast is "a turn for the worst"? Just a bit of hyperbole. The pattern is seasonal to slightly cool, and with days with sunshine are over-performing. Boring? Yes. Shitty severe locally? Dear god yes. We start booking major snowstorms on the models again and I will buy into some concern.