SchaumburgStormer

Going to parlay your calls for the next 2 events and take the over here, and the under next week

DAB our my way. Northern cutoff will be brutal. At this point I pulling for futility, this winter has been hot garbage

18z going to be another good run for the central IL crowd

RC banging out a killer AFD on this one. This then turns us to the main period of interest. Meteorologically, the key piece of the puzzle will be a vigorous mid-level wave closed at 500 mb as it moves onto the Pacific northwest shore Saturday evening. This wave will dive into the desert Southwest by Monday evening and from there eject northeastward toward the western Ohio Valley by Wednesday morning. It now appears that this primary "southern stream" wave will remain separate from noteworthy northern stream influence, as recent guidance has slowed an incoming short-wave trough diving southward from central Canada later in the week. That said, an intensifying upper jet streak wrapping around the base of our wave of interest may help intensify the burgeoning mid latitude cyclone Tuesday into early Wednesday. Will spare much more in depth complex meteorological analysis at this still several days out time range in which good overall guidance agreement (and a bit of a northward tick in the ensemble means) in the big picture still entrails meaningfully large spread that will determine our bottom line precip/snow and impacts wise. Most importantly, a fairly classic southern Plains, lower MS Valley low pressure should take shape, with the question being exact track and strength from there toward the eastern Great Lakes. Barring major changes in the evolution, this pattern supports injection of plenty of Gulf moisture (well above normal PWATs to tap into) for higher snow rates and several inches of snow where strongest banding sets up. Ultimately, the primary southern stream wave is now expected to be the main player and the strength of the wave (tied to it becoming negatively tilted or staying more positively tilted for longer) will determine the all important surface low track. A track farther north of the OH River of 1000 mb or less surface low would bring the higher accumulation risk farther north and west, while a weaker and farther south track would result in a sharp cut-off northwest and higher accums southeast. Conceptually speaking as well, fairly sharp cut-offs on the northwest side of the precip shield are common in these synoptic set-ups even with stronger surface lows. While there is a scenario in which a much stronger system could bring in enough warm air aloft for p-type concerns if not rain into portions of the area, for now have broad brushed snow chances in the forecast, with likely PoPs in our southeast half/near and southeast of I-55 Wednesday reasonable at this juncture. The not very cold antecedent air mass suggests climo to slightly below normal snow ratios, so still not looking like a fluffy snow. Gusty northerly winds would nonetheless serve to knock down visibility further. Plenty of time to iron out all these details and certainly a much weaker system with little/no impacts in much of the area remains on the table (with a lower % but not insignificant number of ensemble members showing this). Beyond the possible snow storm, the earlier mentioned northern stream trough will bring the coldest air mass of this exceptionally mild January into the region. At the least, expect flurries in this setup and the lake effect machine to get going, with potential for light snow accums to be addressed later. The pattern does look quite active current day 7 (Friday) and beyond, with cold enough air for additional winter weather threats into early February. Needless to say, stay tuned for forecast updates on the mid week storm system as we start to hone in on the details.

06z GFS about as classic of a look as you can get for a siggy Chicago hit. Probably will begin to fall apart at 12z until we end up with a DAB.

GHD-2 is the last storm where I remember every model cranking it up as we closed in. The good old days….

I.E. - Don't hug a solution until about 3 hours out.

I have no reason for optimism this season. Assuming a miss south. No reason to bet against the multi year trend.

I feel like RC mentioned this exact scenario with the double barrel low. Brutal

Got a little sleet before it changed to rain. Top 2 event.

You know we are having a thrilling season when green bay hasn't even iced up.

With the pattern as it has been since mid-spring, MSP is the jackpot zone. I think its realistic.

To be fair, the 384 hr GFS is probably not any more terrible than the 38 hr GFS.

I dont believe it unless we have bank clock confirmation.

Had the christmas storm actually been something noteworthy, I would be fine riding it out till spring. But I have been able to clear by driveway with a broom all season, so I would like at least 1 shovel-able event that is not in May.

Top 3 winter event.

Its sad that the highlights of the winter lately have been the Beavis snow meltdown, followed by this comment, followed by more complaining that Chicago's winter climo sucks.

Low path through IN, supposed deepening as it enters MI... Where have I seen this evolution before?

Picking up like a 1/5th of my YTD total in an hour on nonsense.

Misleading a bit, yes. But from a sensible weather standpoint, Chicago's average high in January is ~31 degrees. So warmer than average pushes us to the wrong side of the freeze line for those who enjoy such things.

Seeing some pictures of minor structural damage on Facebook in Decatur

Looks like a loose couplet over Decatur

Love that January thunderstorm...