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Stebo

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Everything posted by Stebo

  1. Stebo
    Still respectable and nothing like the shitpile gfs.
  2. Stebo
    They were like...
  3. Stebo
    I will say the shift se wasnt as substantial this run and some models are coming in a tick juicier.
  4. Stebo
    The worst part is that our bullseyes are not even remotely locked in and we are within 2 days.
  5. Stebo
    Noticed this as well, which is why the snow swath is becoming more sw-ne oriented run to run. Just need to stop shifting the swath eastward.
  6. Stebo
    18z Euro ensembles actually coming in a bit juicier for MI and Ontario.
  7. Stebo
    You locking in on a DAB now?
  8. Stebo
    Eventually someone will get that but I don't think it will be that far SW.
  9. Stebo
    I locked in 3-5" online with as minimal confidence as possible. Watch or not I have no confidence of these 6"+ amounts.
  10. Stebo
    I'll be surprised if we see more than 4" and that is coming from the inside of all the current bullseyes.
  11. Stebo
    It is, but his post came with some spinner bait attached. SEMI is the king of 6-10" and that is what I would be saying would happen, if I had any confidence in the forecast. I don't though because there is nothing to latch onto, that says this won't keep evaporating.
  12. Stebo
    It is 2020, we shouldn't be having massive shifts like this in modeling and it isn't just the US models either. Ukie has been consistent with where it is putting the snow, but surely not how it is was evolving the system itself. The other foreign models have been diving SE too, though the US models have been the most erratic.
  13. Stebo
    3k would still be snowing well beyond that. That would be a big time hit for Chicago to Detroit
  14. Stebo
    Regional GEM is pretty in line with the NAMs especially the 3km. Maybe a bit stronger with the initial low at 48 hours.
  15. Stebo
    Slower is better, allows for wave 2 to phase with wave 3 in MN.
  16. Stebo
    I'm betting on 8:1 ratios.
  17. Stebo
    NBM
  18. Stebo
    Probably been riding GFS the whole time. They are too in the bed with the bad model to acknowledge it is a bad model.
  19. Stebo
    Well that explains the watches but man WPC wants to go down with their own ship. Even the NAM is trending south, the only thing left is GFS.
  20. Stebo
    Justified for maybe Racine and Kenosha. Maybe south end of MKE but that's about it. Trends on everything but the GFS have been south for over 24 hours now.
  21. Stebo
    Yeah just blindly believe a watch that has no chance of verifying...
  22. Stebo
    Yeah I just don't see the GFS being right on this especially in light of all other guidance.
  23. Stebo
    I wouldn't have. Trends are big time going in reverse there.
  24. Stebo
    Falling right in line with seasonal trends, less amounts and southeast.
  25. Stebo
    It was very similar to last run but just missed the phase by a tiny bit. It goes to show how something so small can have such a large impact.
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