Stebo

GFS is trying, the thing is the models are going to struggle with that until the day of basically. Models love to push it along the jet, but in reality it usually dives into the instability.

Point and click forecast starting Saturday here Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 74. Sunday Sunny and hot, with a high near 98. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 76. Monday Sunny and hot, with a high near 99. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 77. Tuesday Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 96. Pass

There is some feedback, but its not necessarily incorrect, as you mention with an MCV it can modulate the wind fields much stronger.

Wednesday

I'd have to defer to Ricky on this but every model is suffering from convective feedback, I really don't know how to forecast this one. Verbatim most models are significant but there is a feedback that is amplifying the winds, how much of that is true I don't know.

Saturday has my interest.

Wednesday is interesting, a low ejects out of the plains and strengthens as it moves towards the Straits of Mackinaw overnight into Thursday, with ample instability and a warm front lifting through the state I would expect some severe weather of all modes with a squall line trailing along the cold front. The wind fields are pretty robust as well.

Timing on Euro is actually similar, the only thing I don't like is that it could extend into the night time. Don't need night time tornadoes.

I am fine with the GFS speed, IL doesn't need to get everything lol.

Will do, if not here I will on twitter, but I will try and remember here as well.

My yearly chasecation starts Friday, pretty excited to be out on the open roads.

I'd rather we have some cold into end of March instead of mid April or something like that.

Aren't you in Florida? Why are you complaining

I am very concerned with STL's metro this evening. Moisture arrives just in time to make this a very significant potential.

Yeah outside of a surprise storm at some point, I don't think we will see much more wintry weather this spring.

Yep, we will ride the roller coaster for a bit.

I agree with this assessment, I don't see a Morch coming either but we may have periodic warm spells that could push parts of the region into the 70s.

At this point as far as I heard 289 of 2500ish NWS employees were let go, you already reduced things by 12.5% another RIF and you will have NWS offices that won't be able to stay open. This is not including the other cuts to NOAA outside of the NWS. It is maddening, frustrating, and sad all at once. Like you I started here at KDTW in 2009 with contract weather observations and I am worried that I am going to get a call or an email that we have to shut down, I have 5 other employees I manage, what in the hell am I going to tell them if that happens. "Sorry your dream job got eliminated because of a whim of a couple of assholes"

I know I am not from this subforum obviously, but I did want to put in my two cents. What happened today is going to set back this country as a whole so badly. Weather observations/models/data that will rapidly disappear, is a necessary facet to so much. People have taken for granted what happens behind the scenes for far too long. We are going to see what happens very quickly as we might have a significant tornado outbreak next week. Any degradation of data between now and then will make things significantly harder. I really feel for those who got fired today for no reason other than the whim of a couple of morons.

I am sure I speak for every red tag on this subforum, we are all so upset about what has happened today. This is going to have a very long lasting impact on this country almost immediately. I feel for anyone who got needlessly fired today.

Garbage discord run by garbage people trying to both sides this.

I'd bet rain for both.

There is merit this year considering the things I mentioned above.

See the thing that is interesting is that we are seeing cooling in the middle part of the Pacific in the ENSO regions while having warming near South America This leads to a very positive Trans-Nino Index, which is very conducive to severe in the US, combine that with the -PDO (cooling along Alaska/California along with warmth to the west of it, and an above average Gulf of Mexico. You present a very ripe pattern for western US troughing and strong return flow into the middle part of the country, with above normal moisture. Many of your first year Ninas that decay or weaken in this time frame tend to be blockbuster years. There are exceptions of 2006 but this winter/spring has not played out like that year.

This is one year I do see being a potential analog though.