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Stebo

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Everything posted by Stebo

  1. Stebo
    Yeah that whole area from Buffalo/Niagara over to Hamilton and Toronto got absolutely trucked. That band was pushing 50 dBZ when it came through Buffalo. My friend in Oakville sent me these pictures, he estimated 18"
  2. Stebo
    There has been evidence of a pattern change showing up on longer range models around the 1st of the month, more into a neutral PNA slightly negative PNA regime, if that were to be the case it should help a lot of us out as the southeast ridge doesn't flex too much.
  3. Stebo
    Banned
  4. Stebo
    Wettest February on record?
  5. Stebo
    Are we still calling this a decent winter like some were eluding to last week? We have actually had some snow here in SE MI and it still has been a shit winter.
  6. Stebo
    Hell at the rate this is shifting west the Eastern parts of the subforum might get into the game. I know the 12z shifted hard across the board.
  7. Stebo
    Trash pattern
  8. Stebo
    I have been on a couple surveys myself and know that these offices are not staffed enough right now to thoroughly do these surveys. It's just a fact that they don't have the time available. So it is entirely possible that corners were cut, not on purpose obviously. I respect other NWS mets but they are human at the end of the day as well.
  9. Stebo
    Yes but we aren't there so thats apples to oranges. Also most places west of the lakes still have a 6" storm a year. Except for cedar rapids, they are the San Diego of the midwest.
  10. Stebo
    Barely an inch on the ground... and our largest storm is like 4". It isn't a great year. Yes we have had more than others but it's still not great.
  11. Stebo
    I am near average to this point and I can admit this winter has been ass so far. Even if you shine up this last week it really didn't amount to much.
  12. Stebo
    Tbf though, what is good for Ohio isn't for most of this forum except for southern Indiana. Plus there has been a lot of butthurt over the years because we 'steal' their snow. Having them in their own thread is much better for the sanity of the rest of us.
  13. Stebo
    3.2" for me, we did decent overnight Saturday night.
  14. Stebo
    This, or better yet their own subforum.
  15. Stebo
    I am with Joe on this, plus the convection isn't guaranteed to be widespread. If anything there is a window of this being more than forecast.
  16. Stebo
    There are some solutions on the low side that literally have no chance of verifying.
  17. Stebo
    The NAMs are easy tosses, they are too amplified. Everything else except the ukie is south, and the ukie is worthless as well. Locally my concern is we hang onto a bit of low level warmth but I do think the models are underdoing the CAA a bit especially with the strong high pressing in from the north.
  18. Stebo
    I will collect my money at the pay window on Sunday.
  19. Stebo
    With the ridge to the south there is a limit to how far south it can shift, I honestly think the GFS is that limit.
  20. Stebo
    Looks to be the furthest north solution at this point, has a pretty weird hump to the snowfall in Missouri as well which i don't expect based upon low ejection.
  21. Stebo
    I mean we are in a position to say there will be a storm, it is just a question of who is getting what.
  22. Stebo
    Yeah that would be a nice long duration event
  23. Stebo
    There are several things that are dictating this, the location of the lead wave, when/if it will phase, where the block across canada sets up, and how strong the front is with that system that travels across Canada.
  24. Stebo
    Yep, tbh looking at the 12z eps and the 18z GEFS there was a massive shift in the spaghetti plots of amplifying that trough out west. When everyone jumps all at once so fast run to run like that, it gives me pause. This run of the Euro trended back to less amplified out west.
  25. Stebo
    Very good point.
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