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Stebo

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Stebo

  1. Stebo
    I'm still very hesitant. It can easily keep moving east or move back west.
  2. Stebo
    The 18z GFS would be the stupidest solution possible locally.
  3. Stebo
    That stuff south of the main band tho is transitional from rain to snow along the Arctic front. Which is why it looks splotchy and I just dont see that happening especially across Indiana, Southern Michigan, and Ohio. That shut off along the front will be pronounced.
  4. Stebo
    Hell if the GFS went this far west the Euro probably goes over Omaha.
  5. Stebo
    Toss everything south of the main band for every ensemble. That back end stuff is incredibly overdone
  6. Stebo
    You should. Save yourself 4 days of wasting time.
  7. Stebo
    Bye storm.
  8. Stebo
    The evolution is straightforward, the location isn't yet.
  9. Stebo
    If the low occluded early like the gfs shows that could keep some of the warmth away. Something to watch as well. Also when the low comes north is in question too. Also the depth of digging is in question. The certainty is that this will be a significant to historic storm and it is for this region.
  10. Stebo
    I have no idea what could happen, there literally are several different solutions and every run of every model comes in with something new. I'd lean cutter with an occlusion just not as far west as the current storm, but beyond that I have no clue. We probably wont get one at least until Sunday at the earliest.
  11. Stebo
    Yeah, this is a multiple pronged event, there is easily the potential of it being nothing or being what the euro showed last night. What I do expect is for the southern stream to slow some and the northern stream to speed up some. Will that leave enough of a pocket for some wave separation and a storm, remains to be seen.
  12. Stebo
    Accurate As for Cromartie, yes he should be removed, nothing useful ever coming from him but constant trolling. I'd do it myself but yeah no green tag here.
  13. Stebo
    Catching some cold rain tonight, maybe a half inch.
  14. Stebo
    Saw some sun for a while this afternoon Good, he can stay there
  15. Stebo
    Not really much wind to warrant a squall warning.
  16. Stebo
    We don't want to be in the bullseye of a day 16 total map, history has taught us that doesnt work out.
  17. Stebo
    Sioux Falls got .27 last hour all snow, even at 8:1 that's still over 2" per hour. This is probably going to be a solid overperformer across iowa and wherever it passes north/near Chicago before it dies crossing Michigan.
  18. Stebo
    Yeah been getting more and more common in December too, as it becomes more of a fall month instead of winter.
  19. Stebo
    Yeah we were decently foggy too, not over the top but a solid 1-3 mile most of the night and into most of the morning today. I love a good fog.
  20. Stebo
    Posting about the CFS, did the weather dartboard break?
  21. Stebo
    Pacific is wildly different
  22. Stebo
    Mild enough to be rain for most of us.
  23. Stebo
    Yeah the blocking across Canada is disappearing fast, going to be a warm pattern I think.
  24. Stebo
    There is an interesting setup for some snow Friday actually, models been hinting at it a bit with a low that goes south of both of us. Not every model is showing it but it is something to watch potentially during the week.
  25. Stebo
    This is a lot of the reason why the models are struggling with the PNA and how it will end up being: Now for most of us a negative or neutral PNA is perfectly fine. Ohio probably would want a positive PNA though.
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