Stebo

DAB

I am a bit surprised the models aren't showing enhancement off of Lake Huron as well, this is the type of setup where we should get some.

I don't know how one model is going to replace like 6. I foresee a monumental disaster.

Yep, we went to the UP in August and it was in the 40s at night, early August. And when we got to the northern lower it was so cold you could see your breath a couple nights, also got hailed on at sleeping bear dunes.

Some of these models are too dry, this system will have good banding and decent moisture.

Correct this will matter quite a bit especially since the heaviest rates look to be around sunrise.

Thank you, idk why we are talking about Dallas, Powerball could go to the corpse of the Western subforum and talk about it there.

Yeah this is more of a hybrid clipper than anything.

Euro is notoriously too dry, gfs is probably too wet, so with the middle ground.

Personally I am hoping this can start before sunrise for this very reason.

Yeah I think this has the potential to hit most of us. The 00z gfs and gem both have a nice everyone is a winner event. With the NAO/AO slightly negative and the pna slightly positive this favors a flatter pattern to slight eastern US troughing.

I am ready for storms too, having got 2 storms during winter storms over the last 3 weeks. Its time for some real storms.

Really had that feeling with how moist the storm was and all the incredible winds on the south side, and even on the north side to an extent.

Just to go back to this too, he started 566 threads, you are talking 10s of thousands of posts that would be gone forever.

Personally I was actually quite pleased with the job done here in SEMI, including my own personal forecast for friends and family. Went with an area wide 5-10" and highlighted the areas north and west as being on the higher end of the scale. Most places ended up with 4-11".

Any OCM putting out direct model output on tv is doing a disservice for us all. That's not forecasting, that is modelology.

Oh and yeah I did reply to him negatively, I am not going to associate with someone like him if possible. Just because it took forever to get him gone from here fully doesn't mean he is a good guy at all. His version of what happened is garbage, people were appalled when he posted it. He wasn't posting stuff to be controversial he was doing it to be his weird ass self. Things don't happen in a vacuum, he has been banned from other places because of his extremely weird behavior, and this is just another place where he is banned now.

Yeah he is not going to get deleted specifically for that reason. That is the whole issue with what happened to begin with. The rest of his tl/dr is dr.

<3 honestly though I am ready for spring. One last good storm yesterday and then we can move on.

No one expected that though.

We had rain at the airport, and at home.

4.3" here at home, idk if any compacted, I'll assume so but that is what was down when I got home. Getting kinda windy too.

Like I said I literally watched it all unfold right out my window. 330pm 415pm 830pm

It didn't take that long either, but by the time these planes got ready to leave the runways were too fucked. It didn't take 1.5-2 hours at all. We rapidly deteriorated from 4-5PM the planes before that got out just fine.