Stebo
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Everything posted by Stebo
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Yeah but eventually warm air advection will win out.
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Advection will overpower nocturnal cooling. We will warm up, it just depends on which model as to how brief it will be.
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Cromartie, since I know you are reading this, stop making accounts. You have made 7 accounts already that have been banned in the last week. Take a hint, you are banned, go find another place to annoy.
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I honestly don't know what is going to happen here, but every model at this point but the Euro brings snow to SE MI as dynamic cooling takes effect as the low strengthens and has flow from the east or northeast. I am just a bit gun shy from the complete failure of Wednesday but the difference this time is the precip rates should be much more considerable, compared to the precip rates on Wednesday which were weak.
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That being said I think SEMI gained a bit tonight on the models but its is incredibly tenuous and could easily go back the other direction. I would love to be in SW MI for this, they look to get absolutely bonecrushed.
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Its misleading a bit, it shows snow with a 3/2c surface. Unless it is absolutely coming down and cold aloft, that is rain. I will say it is decent up until 00z but its hard to buy
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LLJ going to win out, I would lean warmer and we have seen warmer yesterday. The only saving grace to the north and east could be a quicker occlusion but beyond that the warmth along and east of the low track should win out.
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The only positive thing from this is that they could be killed, and the crowd would rejoice Seriously though going from what we are now to this without snow would be pretty lousy
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I wonder who you could be...
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Is there anywhere to see its test data or experimental output? The way it sounds is that it should be treated like the new SREF if its an ensemble.
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We will see what the 12z does but, this isn't a ringing endorsement for the RRFS over the NAM or the RRFS for this storm.
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Not in a Nino, which is why if we don't get much Friday that would almost seal it for a below normal snow for the season. You can't just punt Dec and January and hope that Feb/Mar pay off.
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Hi, I see myself from yesterday in this image
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There is actually a reason why, and if it does come to fruition it would bust most areas. It amplifies a lead head of the vort in the north forcing a low to the north.
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I wonder if you will use the phrase "white rain" for this area
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You had me until you posted this, SREF is garbage and you know it.
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The lake isn't your friend with this storm. It's going to be a white rain downtown more than likely.
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It would almost guarantee a below normal snow season here because cold and dry doesn't yield much snow even with some lake effect.
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Yes I think a few inches is maybe possible but I can't go above 4" and honestly that might get washed away by rain too, just like yesterday.
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The atmosphere is pretty similar to the current storm with this one. Idk why you guys think a bust potential isn't there with essentially the same storm again especially in the city of Chicago. Joe is seeing it so is Alek.
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Nah this storm is going to go west and make sure it clubbers Chicago while it rains again here.
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Oh yeah totally love it. At this point I'm just going to stop talking about this storm because the minute I say anything it blows up in my face. Congrats Chicago
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The Euro being overamplified as usual.
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Euro/NAM had it tracking north of you guys or right over. The low is in Central IL where the GFS had it.
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Still overamplified, its not hard to understand with minimal phasing that we aren't getting a sub 970mb low. Remember what today was supposed to be, in the low 970s and right now its about 10mb weaker than that.
