Stebo

This is going to stay very dangerous as it keeps going NE as there are a lot of towns between Tuscaloosa and Birmingham.

Unreal images from Tuscaloosa.

Man that skycam is extremely scary.

Getting very dangerous, Tuscaloosa is a large city.

Btw I don't anyone actually mentioned this, but the PDS watch for Alabama, the probabilities are all >95%. I believe this is the first watch to ever have all >95%.

Just an unbelievable image.

Very fast motion too not to mention the individual vortices

Impressive looking tornado on the ground to the North of Birmingham. Multiple Vortex, with powerflashes.

No I would agree, I was just stating if there was anything that would cause them not to go High, it would be that. I personally would go high for S. KY south into MS/AL.

It's these differences that will probably cause them to not pull the trigger on a high until the 2nd outlook at 1300Z if they dont at 0600Z

indeed

Yeah I would have to agree with all of this, I think saying tomorrow will underperform is a bit premature. If we have issues with the setup by say noon tomorrow then we can talk about the potential underperforming.

Yeah I agree, I think we need to keep this thread to serious discussion as a good amount of the country is going to be affected tomorrow.

Just like a blizzard or a major hurricane...

and anything in the gulf will be Katrina.

I'm not writing off anything, I just think that you don't realize just how epic 30 F4 and 6 F5 tornadoes are.

Yeah Tennessee is going to have a long day today and tomorrow, and its already been a busy time in the past 36 hours.

There is certainly a potential of a High, of all 3 days Wednesday would be the one that has the highest potential get the High Risk designation.

Wow not often do you see such amazing shear coinciding with large instability like this.

Yeah Wednesday is starting to get that scary potential to it. Especially with the models uniformly trending left each run.

I'd certainly argue there is a growing potential further North on Wednesday per the latest model runs, SREF showing higher numbers much further North than previous runs too.

I'm guessing no.

Day 3 Mod too DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT MON APR 25 2011 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE ERN U.S. FROM THE LOWER AND MID MS/OH VALLEYS EWD... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX SHIFTING EWD INTO THE MID SOUTH REGION INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT S OF THE MAIN GREAT LAKES REGION LOW. THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE SETUP FAVORS SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL E OF THE MS VALLEY. ...PA/NW SSWWD TO THE GULF COAST... YET ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIALLY VERY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DAY 3 /WED. AND EARLY THU. APR. 27 AND 28/ -- WITH ELEVATED THREAT FOR A TORNADO OUTBREAK EVIDENT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NWRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...AS THE POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. WHILE AN INITIAL SURFACE LOW SHOULD SHIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/MIDWEST...SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE KY/TN VICINITY...WITH LOCALLY-BACKED SURFACE FLOW VEERING/INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY WITH HEIGHT RESULTING IN SHEAR PROFILES VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...STRONG SHEAR...FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AND ANTICIPATED LACK OF APPRECIABLE PRIOR CONVECTION INDICATES A RELATIVELY HIGH-CONFIDENCE AREA OF CONCENTRATED SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY REGION. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE MODERATE RISK FORECAST ATTM -- INDICATIVE OF OUTBREAK POTENTIAL. ALONG WITH FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL EXTENDING FARTHER NNEWD INTO PA/NY -- INCLUDING THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY ALSO EXTEND E OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES. ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AFTERNOON SEVERE CONVECTION...SEVERE CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE FRONT CRESTS THE APPALACHIANS. ..GOSS.. 04/25/2011

Yeah, if it were to develop you'd have a severe backing of the winds at the surface, and the potential of significant tornado action would skyrocket.

Oh you are talking about that NAM meso low that formed? Yeah that definitely had a convectively induced look to it, although it is interesting that the other models all show it. Might be something to monitor the potential of as we move through next few days.