Stebo

Going to a Tigers game on Saturday, expect the cold shitty solution to verify.

At this rate the Great Lakes will be one giant lake all the way to the Ohio River.

Yeah I would rather this not happen if that is the outcome.

Lol I see someone under a bridge just dropped into this thread.

This flooding is only the start, the areas to the north and east of there have a much higher liquid to snow ratio in their snow packs.

Not in the slightest, but it isn't like Jonger is some general public guy. He is in tune to the weather, or I would like to hope so...

Except this one was definitely modeled strongly well ahead of time, and everyone knew the wind potential with it. I mean going out in a blizzard to ride is one thing, going out in this blizzard to one of the most remote places in the state is another story.

Jeez man, good thing you got out alright beyond the hypothermia.

Yeah I was going to say.

168-180 ukmet?

Can't get any worse 1225 March 28th.

Really sad to read this personally. He was a met at WXYZ channel 7 in Detroit for several years back in the 90s. Back when I was in elementary school, he visited for an assembly, and specifically spent time with me before the assembly after finding out my interest in weather. Just an all around great meteorologist and it is sad to see that he lost his fight.

The highest I found from their observations at the airport is 60kt gusting to 84kt VHHH 160500Z 07060G84KT 1100 0900W R07R/0400N R25L/0400N R07L/0375N R25R/0325N +SHRA FEW010 SCT025 27/24 Q0975 NOSIG

I do hope you check back in as much as possible here, your posts are always gold.

I wouldn't worry about that detail, we are still several days out.

It must absolutely be coming down in Cleveland KCLE 300059Z 27015KT 1/8SM +SN FG VV004 01/M01 A2977 RMK AO2 P0006 T00111011 0.06" in 7 minutes is pretty insane rates.

Just east of Baton Rouge BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 848 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR WATSON...GREENWELL SPRINGS...DENHAM SPRINGS... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... CENTRAL EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... * UNTIL 1145 AM CDT * AT 843 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE REQUESTING IMMEDIATE EVACUATIONS IN WATSON. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING. WATER RESCUES ARE ALSO TAKING PLACE IN AMITE. SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN DENHAM SPRINGS. THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR WATSON. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW! * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING INCLUDE... DENHAM SPRINGS...WALKER...PORT VINCENT...GREENWELL SPRING... SHENANDOAH. As for Baton Rouge proper... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 814 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ASCENSION PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... * UNTIL 215 PM CDT SATURDAY * AT 813 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING TO FALL OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 10 AND 26 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING. * SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... BATON ROUGE...ZACHARY...BAKER...DENHAM SPRINGS...GONZALES... DONALDSONVILLE...PLAQUEMINE...PORT ALLEN...NEW ROADS...JACKSON... ST. FRANCISVILLE...CLINTON...GREENSBURG...OAK HILLS PLACE... ST. GABRIEL...WALKER...ADDIS...BRUSLY... WHITE CASTLE AND LIVINGSTON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

Never underestimate the strength of the LLJ. I would hedge my bets toward the GFS.

NAM also has unrealistic shallow cold air bias. A high in thst location would already have a return flow. 48 isnt happening at 00z Monday.

GFS is leaning heavily on climo which makes sense at this range, the fact it shows any instability is a good sign.

I understand the worry, you don't want to have to spend money going all the way out there to see nothing. However, we both know you always see stuff out there, the outcome is always the same year to year, it is just the difference is in the details.

I wouldn't worry about an op run especially at a 15 day range...

I am getting very interested in the period around and after April 7th. Looks like a wholesale pattern change with a prolonged trough in the west and a ridge in the east. I could certainly see this period yielding some potential systems of interest with a high ceiling at that.

I found this a few days back and forgot to post it. Someone on youtube uploaded the entire National Geographic Witness episode about the Joplin tornado in 3 parts. Part 1 http://youtu.be/qI6IoV1ruZA Part 2 http://youtu.be/hKuX4kTCHtg Part 3 http://youtu.be/5jy_lZGFZDI A really good collection of videos and first hand accounts.