Oh really? A trough centered over the eastern lakes isn't a cold and dry pattern? That is news to me. Sure you could end up with a dusty clipper or two but that isn't a favorable pattern for this subforum unless you are downwind of the lakes.
Part of the reason why the city stays warmer through the day on the GFS is the TROWAL noses in and keeps them above freezing at surface to 925mb until 21z even near 0 at 850mb.