Stebo
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Everything posted by Stebo
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Over 7" and still coming down.
- 341 replies
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- 11
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I think we end up just short but it will be close. DTX just replied to me on twitter that the all time snowstorm for November is 9" for Detroit, we have a shot at that.
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6.5" just measured, easily still 1/2SM snow coming down
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That would be top storm in November and 4th for the entire month if we got that much. Of course I am highly discounting a snowfall that high.
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RGEM drops almost 10 for most of Metro Detroit
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Already down to 3SM snow at DTW and 34 degrees. Starting right on schedule and starting almost all at snow.
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Very light snow here temp down to 34. Still a mix at DTW but down to 37.
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Cooler drier air moving in quickly here. Already in the lower to mid 30s with dews in the 20s north of the city.
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They put one out.
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Same here off of Huron or St. Clair.
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Chicago goes for 3-6, GRR's advisory looking worse and worse.
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For 2-5". Bad call in my opinion, I just hope they aren't talking DTX into a lower amount WWA.
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At this point I can say with pretty high confidence that from Chicago through Michigan and across Southern Ontario should get in the 5-7" range with some areas seeing more depending upon pivot points of bands and enhancement off of Michigan Huron and Ontario. Those places could push a foot.
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SREF plumes for DTW have a mean of 5" up from 3" on the 21z run.
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Their AFD is a bit light though same with GRR. Only talking 2-4" synoptic snow, I hope they don't get too caught up in climo and ignore the atmosphere itself.
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I'd love a repeat of 02-03s winter that is for sure.
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I would almost consider a watch and eventual warning for Southern Lower Michigan especially since this is the first snowfall of the year and may be heaviest around Monday Morning rush hour. If things continue to tick upward it would most certainly be warranted.
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Both NAMs have some wild enhancement/lake effect off of Lake Huron out this way. Don't think I have ever seen anything like that before, at least not in recent memory.
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Its .4 widespread for 12z and almost/past .5 on 18z liquid equivalent. Some places pushing over 6" across southern MI.
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No reason to change what isn't broken.
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Yeah 18z GFS trending toward foreign models.
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It is a step but still got a long ways to go.
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I see this event as been very similar to earlier in the week only south and the american models were grossly underdone with that event. This time around the frontogenesis should be even better with a stronger baroclinicity. Atmosphere should be really efficient at wringing out the moisture available.
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So does the Euro.
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DTX is pretty hype this afternoon.
