Stebo

Yep, we will ride the roller coaster for a bit.

I agree with this assessment, I don't see a Morch coming either but we may have periodic warm spells that could push parts of the region into the 70s.

At this point as far as I heard 289 of 2500ish NWS employees were let go, you already reduced things by 12.5% another RIF and you will have NWS offices that won't be able to stay open. This is not including the other cuts to NOAA outside of the NWS. It is maddening, frustrating, and sad all at once. Like you I started here at KDTW in 2009 with contract weather observations and I am worried that I am going to get a call or an email that we have to shut down, I have 5 other employees I manage, what in the hell am I going to tell them if that happens. "Sorry your dream job got eliminated because of a whim of a couple of assholes"

I know I am not from this subforum obviously, but I did want to put in my two cents. What happened today is going to set back this country as a whole so badly. Weather observations/models/data that will rapidly disappear, is a necessary facet to so much. People have taken for granted what happens behind the scenes for far too long. We are going to see what happens very quickly as we might have a significant tornado outbreak next week. Any degradation of data between now and then will make things significantly harder. I really feel for those who got fired today for no reason other than the whim of a couple of morons.

I am sure I speak for every red tag on this subforum, we are all so upset about what has happened today. This is going to have a very long lasting impact on this country almost immediately. I feel for anyone who got needlessly fired today.

Garbage discord run by garbage people trying to both sides this.

I'd bet rain for both.

There is merit this year considering the things I mentioned above.

See the thing that is interesting is that we are seeing cooling in the middle part of the Pacific in the ENSO regions while having warming near South America This leads to a very positive Trans-Nino Index, which is very conducive to severe in the US, combine that with the -PDO (cooling along Alaska/California along with warmth to the west of it, and an above average Gulf of Mexico. You present a very ripe pattern for western US troughing and strong return flow into the middle part of the country, with above normal moisture. Many of your first year Ninas that decay or weaken in this time frame tend to be blockbuster years. There are exceptions of 2006 but this winter/spring has not played out like that year.

This is one year I do see being a potential analog though.

I don't see any of those years being analogs for this year at all.

About how much I had at home as well, easy brush off though.

In the end there is no point litigating why it sucked. It sucked for here and didn't to the northeast of here where the moisture was better.

The janky evolution was because of the convection and pulling the low east dude. It didn't allow for the phasing and west-east boundary that had all the convection didn't allow for deeper moisture here.

It's a combo of both. The convection screwed up the trough orientation and pulled the low east, which didn't allow for the phasing with the trailing vort.