Stebo

There is merit this year considering the things I mentioned above.

See the thing that is interesting is that we are seeing cooling in the middle part of the Pacific in the ENSO regions while having warming near South America This leads to a very positive Trans-Nino Index, which is very conducive to severe in the US, combine that with the -PDO (cooling along Alaska/California along with warmth to the west of it, and an above average Gulf of Mexico. You present a very ripe pattern for western US troughing and strong return flow into the middle part of the country, with above normal moisture. Many of your first year Ninas that decay or weaken in this time frame tend to be blockbuster years. There are exceptions of 2006 but this winter/spring has not played out like that year.

This is one year I do see being a potential analog though.

I don't see any of those years being analogs for this year at all.

About how much I had at home as well, easy brush off though.

In the end there is no point litigating why it sucked. It sucked for here and didn't to the northeast of here where the moisture was better.

The janky evolution was because of the convection and pulling the low east dude. It didn't allow for the phasing and west-east boundary that had all the convection didn't allow for deeper moisture here.

It's a combo of both. The convection screwed up the trough orientation and pulled the low east, which didn't allow for the phasing with the trailing vort.

2.5" here 3.5" total for both days.

I'm ready for spring and thunderstorms.

It wasn't just robbing the moisture the convection modulated the mass fields such that the trough never matured properly and the surface low was pulled east. This was never given a chance to properly have the WCB cross into the cold sector because it got deflected east along the river with all the training storms there.

Yeah the training shit along the river blocked the deeper moisture from coming north.

Convection absolutely blocked moisture transport up to the region its also modulated the mass fields causing the surface low to be further east.

He is in Florida so idk why he even cares.

Wouldn't be an event without a shitty dry HRRR run