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coastalplainsnowman

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Everything posted by coastalplainsnowman

  1. coastalplainsnowman
    48 here, foggy, drizzly. Snowpack is eroding *fast.* Lesson officially learned - no matter how dense, ice encrusted, glacial, etc. the snowpack looks, a few hours of foggy, drizzly upper 40s/low 50s will wipe most of it out.
  2. coastalplainsnowman

    "If you live anywhere 30 miles or more NW, N or NE of NYC I’m not sure why you would expect March to be anything but another winter month which is what it is the far majority of the time. I guess some people on the coastal plain view it differently, but I’ve lived here most of my life and have never counted on extended warmer weather until late April the earliest. "

    For those of us on the coast we usually get the worst of both worlds in March and into April.  Sure we'll get some snow, a decent amount in some years, but to get anything that sticks around for more than a day is a rarity.  At the same time when N&W get some of those nice early spring fever days with temps into the upper 60s, we'll have the ocean breeze / backdoor cold fronts / whatever it's called that keep us in  the damp upper 40s here, which seems to nag us through Memorial day now and then.

    I like the snow as much as anyone, but once we're past about the time the clocks more forward, I'm ready for spring.  On that note, to folks like myself who have been around awhile and remember daylight savings starting in early and even late April, seeing snow falling  with the sun setting around 7PM is bizarre.

    Ok, ramble over..

     

     

  3. coastalplainsnowman
    Just a comment: Usually when posters here say that they don't want extreme weather "x", I don't believe it, only because I don't believe it when those same words come out of my own mouth. Instinctively we all seem to actually want to see it no matter what we are saying/typing. Even ice storms - I say I don't want it, but when the temperature eventually gets above 32, and it turns to plain 'ol rain, and the ice starts melting off the cars, if I'm being honest I have to admit that I feel a little sad. That's a problem, right?
  4. coastalplainsnowman
    It's got to be 1994, right? I was about to post the other day how for my frame of reference, which starts about 1979 (I remember the blizzard of 78 but just barely), no other year comes close to 1994 for number of days that side streets were snow and ice-packed. 1994 must've had, Iet's say 4-5 times as many days with snow and ice-packed side streets than whatever year comes in 2nd. 1996 and its legendary snow totals had quite a few warmups along the way. I remember hitting golf balls with a light jacket one day in mid February that year thinking 'this crazy winter is almost over', not realizing that we had a ways to go and that we'd go over 90 inches on April 10th, at least out in Brookhaven or thereabouts.
  5. coastalplainsnowman
    Coming down pretty nicely here. I never learned how to eyeball light vs. med. vs. heavy, but I'll call this the low end of moderate.
  6. coastalplainsnowman
    Not sure how much we got here - I'll leave it to the spotters, but I'm guessing between 6 and 8. A few thoughts: - A lot of lifetime snow enthusiasts were created today. Between the "hunkered down for the Super Bowl" mood, and the postcard-like snow, this sort of storm is probably the reason most of us are here. - The evening sun and bluish sky while it was still snowing (and accumulating) was a first. I don't know if there's such a thing as a "snowbow", but I thought I was about to find out. - Usually, regardless of the storm, I feel like the snow never accumulates like I expect it to. Today was the opposite. Much of the time the snow looked light, yet it was accumulating before my eyes. - To Walt and everyone else who started talking about this last Sunday, great job with your reasoned, thorough, enjoyable discussions. They are much better than I deserve to get for free, that's for sure. I only wish I'd asked for your predictions for SB 55. Have a great night all.
  7. coastalplainsnowman
    Hey there SW Suffolk. We are right on the battle line at the moment. Literally each time I look up from my book the precip type is different but def trending snowier as cautiously expected. Intensity is up for sure now.
  8. coastalplainsnowman
    Super light precip in SE Nassau by Sunrise. Mostly liquid with occasional wandering fat flake. Little intrusion of ‘green’ depicted well on snow/rain radar. Just an obs - I know we just started.
  9. coastalplainsnowman
    I attribute it more to a combination of satisfaction and fatigue from last week's storm.. I know I feel it myself. 4-8, 3-6, heck 2-3 - if it was the first snow of the season, or if last week hadn't happened, it'd be busier here.
  10. coastalplainsnowman
    Looking at the Upton's forecast and the Probabilistic Winter Weather Forecasts page, its interesting to see that there's almost no difference between the expected forecast and the 90% chance (high end) forecast, whereas the 10% chance (low end) forecast has most locations at zero, and only Montauk and Westhampton seeing 2". I always figured, not knowing any better that the 10 and 90% forecasts would typically reflect some sort of bell curve distribution, and while they are not always like that, this one struck me as unusual. Would be really interested in what skew means. From a layman's standpoint I assume it means that lot of things need to fall into place for this to pan out, but then why wouldn't the expected forecast number be lower? Would appreciate any insight. Thanks.
  11. coastalplainsnowman
    I'm sure, but you're not supposed to say that out loud here On LI we always have that rain threat in the back of our minds, keeping us from truly enjoying the runup to the big events until they are halfway done. Even on this latest storm you can see how it is gonna do its darndest to get that four letter word into the picture.
  12. coastalplainsnowman
    Anyone else find it interesting that despite the phenomenal seasonal snowfall totals we've had around here, even including 1995/1996, that we haven't cracked this list? Maybe because a lot of our recent great seasons have occurred without exceptional cold, and it's harder to thread the needle twice in a week in such conditions? Edit: I'll get back in my lane now lol
  13. coastalplainsnowman
    Hi Don, all, I have only my memory to go by , but I believe that February 8 and February 11 1994 (a Tuesday / Friday) had back to back 8"+ snowfall, at least for Nassau. This is my best recollection of significant back to back snowstorms going back to at least the mid 80s. It might not meet the 10" followed by 6", but if it's not, it probably just missed.
  14. coastalplainsnowman
    I just read that people are in an uproar because yesterday's 'livestreamed' viewing of the Staten Island groundhog, Chuck, was actually pre-recorded, apparently on an earlier day, since keen observers noted that there was no snow on the ground. Well now that's just ridiculous and unscientific! Remember that this is the same public that gets upset when a snow forecast is off by a few inches.
  15. coastalplainsnowman

    Hi thanks for the response.  Your point re thunderstorms is exactly right.  Naturally there's more interest in snow given the usually longer term impact when it falls, but that doesn't make it any easier to pinpoint.  Anyhow, looking forward to the next potential this coming weekend.   Thanks again.

     

  16. coastalplainsnowman
    Stating the obvious, but looking at a map like the above makes it so clear what the models and the mets have cut out for them trying to forecast a storm like this, when you see how that 4-6 runs up the coast in NJ, meanwhile 30 miles to the NE across the Atlantic, the south shore of Nassau is at 12+. To be able to predict anything close to that as has been done, is impressive. Then look at how that r/s line lined up beneath LI in Nassau, nudging north onto land in Suffolk as you go east. That thing's been predicted by many here for three or four days. Even going back to wdrag creating the original thread a week ago! I know you guys set the bar high for yourselves, but that's pretty cool. We take for granted like it's common knowledge that this storm would form off the coast as it did, where it did, when it did, right on schedule. You all have a thankless job. Ok, that's all. As always, always a blast following these storms here.
  17. coastalplainsnowman
    It's funny how most of us think on here. When I say something like what you said above to my family, they respond to the effect of "I don't understand. The people who get buried are the ones who get screwed."
  18. coastalplainsnowman
    For the long islanders, I know there a lot of folks here who like Joe Cioffi, myself included. I think he was posting here at one point (maybe is still posting here?) He's got LI at "at least 6-12" to the west, "at least 4-6" east. https://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/winter-storm-watch-long-island-sunday-night-into-tuesday-at-least-6-to-12-inches-forecast/
  19. coastalplainsnowman
    layman's question - is there any sort of measurement which depicts the variance among the members, in which a smaller number would indicate better agreement?
  20. coastalplainsnowman
    Agreed. Since the 2000s there have many times where LI was forecast to jackpot, and somehow the jackpot turned out to be north central/even north east jersey over into NY. LI did great too in these scenarios too (especially to folks with the 80s as a frame of reference), but still. Only exception I'd add is that magical north central suffolk area that has often rivaled those spots.
  21. coastalplainsnowman
    pun intended?
  22. coastalplainsnowman
    Years ago on a predecessor weather forum I put up a poll geared toward my fellow Long Islanders, asking which would they rather prefer: Option 1: Be in the jackpot of a Mid Atlantic / New England storm where LI gets 10" (the max amount for the given storm) and Boston gets 5. Option 2: Get 15" of snow in a Mid Atlantic / New England storm, but Boston gets 2 feet. Credit to their honesty, most chose option 1.
  23. coastalplainsnowman
    Yup. At least from 1979-1993 there wasn't the temptation to stay glued to the situation 24x7 (other than TWC, which even as a kid you knew that once you watched for 20 minutes straight there would be nothing new to hear for a few hours, so might as well go play outside.) As a kid/teen if I had the 24x7 access we have now I might not have graduated elementary, junior high, or high school on time, or held down a job during the winter months lol. Imagine working in a shopping mall and heading down to the TV department in the department store to catch the weatherman at 7:45PM sharp to see if there were any updates. In hindsight, I think that might have been a problem. 1970-1999 Long Island had about six (six!) total storms of a foot or more. The 2000-2016 was the reward for those of us who suffered before that.
  24. coastalplainsnowman
    Great question! I wonder the same all the time. If that was today, would it be the situation we often see now where the snowfall maps and forecasts on TV don't reflect the latest models, and everyone on boards like this knows it is game over before everyone else? Likewise, I do remember the morning of the Blizzard of '83 the grownups in the morning including my schoolteacher saying 2-5" and we almost had that by dismissal..
  25. coastalplainsnowman
    I remember Joe Cioffi (who I admire and enjoyed very much during his time on News 12) betting the anchors in December 1989 that we would see over 20" of snow in the remainder of that winter, which as we know, much to the surprise of all of us who followed it, never materialized. In hindsight, that is a testament to how lousy the winters of the 80s were snow-wise. a) that a bet of 20" of additional snow in the winter was noteworthy and b) that we didn't reach it. . I recall that after that brutal December 1989 that winter essentially ended at that point. In fact I think it essentially ended for years until we started to get some teases in 1993 before the March 1993 superstorm, which preceded the Blizzard of 96, which proceeded our largely awesome 18 year run that followed.
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