coastalplainsnowman

I'll bet my house that North and West is a dad. Q: How can you tell when a joke is a Dad joke? A: When its apparent.

For anyone else who knows as little about air traffic control as I do about weather and air traffic control, but was interested in this, I just did some quick googling: "When the combination of minimums and winds require using the ILS to 13L, it creates major airspace issues, particularly with TEB and LGA. Hence, they only use that approach when all other options have been exhausted." I guess that answers my question on why using it translates to delays.

I was just looking at the NESIS page. If I'm reading it correctly, in a 13 day stretch in 2010 western southern NJ received: 4-10" Jan 29-30 20-30" Feb 4-7 10-20" Feb 9-11th and it looks like it never got out of the 30s during that stretch. Is this not amazing? I've never seen a stretch like that on LI. Closest to this would be maybe '78 before I could remember. I don't remember this being discussed much back in 2010, but then again I see we got clocked up here a few times in early 2010 too and I have no recollection of those either. Probably because they were so darn frequent for so long.

Don, I'm hoping you are going to do that "winter misery index" calculation / comparison for this winter when all is said and done. Really curious to see how it will stack up if the winter stays on its current trajectory with regard to snow and temps. Namely, whether the somewhat below normal temps will help this year land somewhere in the middle historically, despite the low snow totals. Or, does the fact that the temps when compared to the last hundred years or so aren't all that cold after all will land it among the more miserable winters.

Wondering what folks here think regarding storms like this one and the public's perception, in particular the coastal public's perception. In a situation like the current storm, where based on some of the maps I've seen here it could still be an 8-10 inch "event" 150-200 miles offshore, I bet that the overwhelming majority of the public don't realize that there was in fact a good sized storm, but it just missed us. If you live in Chicago and a storm hits 150 miles to the east, everyone will still know about it because populated areas will still get pounded. But if a storm misses NYC to the east by that much, the perception is that a big storm was predicted and absolutely nothing happened. Maybe I'm master of the obvious, but I figured it's banter so why not.

Don that's probably neck and neck with Bayside Queens for the year right? I wasn't sure if that was intentional dry humor (pun intended.)

If that were to keep backing in like that we could end up with one of those surprise Montauk specials like in March 1998 (or was it 1999, I always forget), where they got 14", Riverhead maybe 6", flurries at the Nassau/Suffolk border, and Sam Champion showing mostly sunny skies from atop the Empire State Building. Not saying that's happening, but something like that did happen once.

Exactly. From that pic it looks to me like that thing is going to hit even further southeast of the benchmark than this Thursday's "storm." I think we'll be fine.

As much as the hobbyists on here can learn from guys like Walt for their technical knowledge, we (I include myself) can learn even more from them from the humble way in which they conduct themselves. They class this place up.

Meanwhile, from the New York Post, 10 minutes ago: "Biggest snowstorm this season likely as nor’easter set to pummeled Northeast this week" The article itself equivocates a bit, but that headline does not. And "pummeled" - past tense - is in the actual headline, not a typo by me. https://nypost.com/2025/02/17/us-news/could-northeast-get-pummeled-by-noreaster-this-week/?utm_campaign=nypost&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

No prediction here, just something that I can't stop thinking of, with regards to Seinfeld: "NO SNOW FOR YOU! COME BACK, ONE YEAR!"

This is funny in a few ways. "JB's predictions for snow were typically 25% higher than average, but this was found to be due to PEDs."

This thread's title is "Discussion-OBS snow event sometime between 18z Wed 2/19-12z Fri 2/21?." The Gulf Stream's elimination, if it does in fact occur, most likely won't be observable by this Friday. I think that's all he's saying.

When it comes to forecasting. I don't know anything, and even I know that JB saying that there's a better chance of it snowing than we think, is right on brand. If I ever saw someone report here that JB is calling for less snow than current consensus, I would immediately rush out to buy a warm coat, because it would mean that hell has frozen over.

I'm noticing Friday the 21st dates on a number of the recently posted maps. Is there consensus (whether it scrapes by or hits more directly, is weaker or is stronger, etc.) that anything that were to happen would start more like Thursday night rather than overnight Wednesday into Thursday?